Which of these 3 will lose out in terms of selection for the 2014 Olympics?

[Maofan7]

Next season, Adelina Sotnikova, Elizaveta Tuktamysheva, and Julia Lipnitskaya, will all be competing for just 2 spots on Russia's team for their home Olympics. Who will lose out?

My view is Lipnitskaya. Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva have much more experience in seniors, including vital experience in competing in a European and World Championships. They have also come through their growth spurts and are starting to settle down in seniors. Lipnitskaya, on the other hand, is still finding her feet and is having to go through the awkward transition from juniors to seniors, including dealing with the usual body changes

[caseyedwards]

Lipnitskaya was very close to winning jr worlds again. She is doing great. I think she's better than Liza and Adelina but both have them have been to a euros and worlds. But look at Liza and adelina's performances at worlds. would that really give them some kind of pcs buffer over Julia if julia lands all her jumps? At euros 2014 when the team is really decided I don't see any reason why Julia cant beat them both.

[Autumn_girl]

If all three skate well at Nationals and especially Euros, I'd say Adelina and Liza will be selected over Julia because of their senior experience, well known coaches and the fact that they already got through their growth spurts while Julia is younger. But I think Julia won't give up and if she does great at the Grand Prix and Nationals, she has a good chance not only make the team for Olympics, but beat her both teammates and become the top Russian. Anyway, it's such a pity that one of these girls will be left home, but the battle for 2 spots is going to be interesting

[blue_idealist]

I think Lipnitskaya will lose out since she has no experience at Worlds/Euros and she skates "younger" than the other two.

[love_skate2011]

all three have weaknesses
Tuk bombing the sps
Sotnikova messing up her fs
Julia is a question mark until next season

I think its still wide open

[FunnyBut]

I voted for Julia, mainly because I like the others so much more....I don't like her tiny jumps, tiny skating, no relation to music, gratuitous hydrant before each jump, gratuitous gumby for the sake of being gumby, deadpan frozen face...she represents everything about scoring well under COP that I don't like. Please let Liza and Adelina or someone else go to Sochi. In reality I think it's wide open, since Russian Fed doesn't judge only on Nats, the entire next season will be so important.

I hope Adelina can put it all together. She is a great athelete, with some very good skating skills and a real artist too, plus she is original and voidy. She is inconsistent (both in jumps and in overall performance level), but really I think she has the most potential to challenge Kim/Asada/Kostner, although right now it's not potential fully realized. I can't imagine Julia or Liza getting PCS anywhere near those three, but with Adelina it's a possibility that with one good year she will get there.

[briancoogaert]

Lipnitskaya, because she is not as good as the others. A great gymnast, but not a great skater

In fact, I don't really know. My favorite russian skater is Polina Korobeynikova. But it seems she won't be able to be in the Olympic team next season.
Sotnikova and Tuktamisheva can bomb or skate badly.
I don't like Lipnitskaya's skating, but she is very young, and if she improves and is more consistent than the others. I don't know.

[judgejudy27]

I actually think it will be Sotnikova. Tuktamysheva has been dominating her in LPs all season, even her best LP in years (maybe ever) at Europeans she lost to Tuks by 5 points and might have lost even had she done her triple flip. Once she gets her SPs together she will beat Sotnikova for sure. Lipnitskaya is the best competitor of the three, she has done many clean competitions with both clean shorts and long, and she has generally had better results than both in the last 2 years. I think Sotnikova will be the one to miss it.

[love_skate2011]

I actually think it will be Sotnikova. Tuktamysheva has been dominating her in LPs all season, even her best LP in years (maybe ever) at Europeans she lost to Tuks by 5 points and might have lost even had she done her triple flip. Once she gets her SPs together she will beat Sotnikova for sure. Lipnitskaya is the best competitor of the three, she has done many clean competitions with both clean shorts and long, and she has generally had better results than both in the last 2 years. I think Sotnikova will be the one to miss it.

Sotnikova though is more of the Feds favorite and international judges respond more to her
by her pcs is the highest amongst the three, I think she is a keeper for that Olympic Spot

[judgejudy27]

Sotnikova though is more of the Feds favorite and international judges respond more to her
by her pcs is the highest amongst the three, I think she is a keeper for that Olympic Spot

if the Russian federation want to keep promoting Sotnikova as their #1 than they are satisfied with mediocrity and never being in contention for medals than that is their choice I suppose. I have a feeling that isnt the case however. Anyway at Russian Nationals this year she skated quite well, one of the better competitions for her standards, and got beaten easily by Tuktamysheva, and Lipnitskaya didnt skate. Tuktamysheva just showed there what will always happen between her and Sotnikova once she starts skating clean SPs finally (somewhat similar to what will always happen between Gold and Wagner once Gold starts skating clean SPs unlike Wagner ups the ante alot). I wouldnt be so sure she is the Feds favorite at this point. Even less so after a mediocre Worlds, especialy skating decently and still getting a very poor result.

Her PCS are not that high, and definitely not high enough to compensate for relative technical inferiority/inconsistency. Osmond with a meltdown had virtually the same PCS as her in the Worlds LP. Kostner with weak technical performances in both the short and long won since her PCS were on average a whole point by component (an ocean) higher than Sotnikova's in the LP. Lets not pretend international judges just adore Sotnikova or something.

[Marco]

Getting great PCS as a junior does not guarantee the same in seniors. It takes time and some consistently solid results to boost one's PCS up. Consistency often isn't as easy as it sounds even for seemingly jumping prodigies not only because the body changes but also because the pressure and the competitive level is very different in seniors. Plus judges are often more willing to overlook jumping flaws in juniors (Asada, Murakami).

Ultimately I think it will come down to which two place better at Euros but Lip is definitely fighting an uphill battle.

[Skater91]

All 3 will lose out to Makarova and Leonova!

[blue_idealist]

All 3 will lose out to Makarova and Leonova!

I'm pretty sure Makarova won't be on an Olympic or World team again.

[pinky166]

Lip will be on the team, I am almost sure of it. She seems the most determined of all three. Sotnikova is having trouble rotating her 3-3s and her consistency hasn't been great for awhile now, we will see if Liza retains her jumping ability and consistency if her body continues to change in the coming months which it very well could. I think Julia is being underestimated by most people, girl is fierce!

[kwanlysacek]

Julia Lippers will probably be on the team which is a shame as she is the poorest skater of the top Russians, but she seems to be the most consistent and will no doubt capatilize on the mistakes Sotnikova and Tuktamer are certain to make. Radionova might have bumped her off if eligible but I dont think she is. Either way the Russian ladies are no threats in Sochi at all. With all the up and comers from the U.S, Japan, China, and Canada, they might remain non factors even after Sochi.

[Skater91]

Tuk is the only russian I could see making the poduim. Bronze is the highest she could get!

But only if a lot of girls skate like Carolina Kostner usually does at Olympics!

[judgejudy27]

Tuk is the only russian I could see making the poduim. Bronze is the highest she could get!

But only if a lot of girls skate like Carolina Kostner usually does at Olympics!

Pretty much. The Russians are not big factors for the Games in ladies no matter who they send. If one talks about who could sneak in, if one of Asada or Kostner bombs, the Russians wouldnt even be the first ones to look at.

[Karpenko]

I went with Lipnitskaya for consistency reasons, but I could very well see the Russian fed pushing to send Sotnikova and Lipnitskaya if all ladies deliver at Nationals. They have the style of skating that I think the fed will want to showcase at the Olympics, but Tuk will be out for blood next year I'm sure. I still can't believe after all the talk this quad they only ended up with 2 spots, I really feel for the ladies that miss out next year.

I also wouldn't quite count out Leonova just yet, I think the possibility of her skating lights out and taking maybe the 2nd spot is still there. She is the only world medalist from Russia on the ladies side heading into the Olympics, and while based on how she looked this season that really doesn't mean anything, on paper it does and if she starts delivering next season I could see the Fed really backing her again.

[judgejudy27]

I agree Julia L. is being WAY underrated in this thread. I dont even like her skating TBH, but it would in fact surprise me atleast a little bit if she isnt on the team. I also think totally discounting Leonova at this point is wrong. As bad as she was this year the young Russians have not impressed enough to totally take a former World medalist out of the race. Given that Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva were supposed to easily bring Russia back 3 spots and fell way short, I dont see them being the 2 women Olympic team. I see 1 of them making it at best, and both while not impossible would be a surprise.

[N_Halifax]

I think it's going to be some combination of Alena, Elizaveta and Adelina. I really do! I agree with judgejudy27 - Leonova's FS at Worlds was actually technically quite good. I wouldn't count her out at all. Would love to see her revive her "Pirates Of The Caribbean" SP for the Olympic season. Why not?