U.S. Ladies [#7] Wagner's Rink Cycle

[RD]

I just hope the same thing doesn't happen to Gracie Gold...

[olympic]

I don't think Emily would have ever developed into a podium contender. She did have some really nice elements to her skating though and was good enough to be a dependable skater to maintain three spots. I think Kimmie could have improved if she just did not have all those injuries, but with Mao and Yuna, there really would have been no way she would ever have been a gold medal contender. I think she would have always had a shot at bronze though.

ITA about Emily. But, I think she would've been doing enough in conjunction w/ a healthy Kimmie to easily maintain 3 spots for the US in the '07 - '10 Quadrennial

[Philly2034]

I think a confluence of events occurred in the same timeframe which altogether really hit US ladies in the gut -

1. As you stated, the US was slow to adapt to the new judging system
2. Mao Asada and Yu Na Kim, once-in-a-lifetime type talents and world beaters, enter the Senior ranks at the same time
3. Michelle Kwan and Sasha Cohen both effectively retire.
4. Ladies in Waiting, Kimmie Meissner, '06 World Champ, and her back-up Emily Hughes, simultaneously suffer some of the slowest, most horrific implosions by top US lady skaters that I've ever seen.

Kimmie and Emily left a big hole which forced a bunch of unprepared Juniors / newbie Seniors (Flatt, Nagasu, Zhang, Wagner), along with a talented headcase, Czisny, to rush out and contend with the likes of Mao, Yu Na, Miki, Joannie (who finally got it together).


It's really not that unfathomable that the US is not on the World's podium.

Yeah, you pretty much summed it up.

The thing is the 2008 Nationals in the ladies division looked a lot like the 2000 nationals with Meissner playing the role of Kwan;
and Zhang, Flatt, Wagner, and Nagasu playing the role of Cohen, Hughes, Kirk, and Nam.

The only difference was that Kwan was able to hold off the Newbies, and Meissner was unable to.

This left
Zhang (who had technique problems that the judges started hammering overnight)
Wagner (who after that Nationals, had short program problems that killed her chances in competition)
Nagasu (who could rack up a lead in the short program, but couldn't keep it, giving her the infamous "headcase" label)
Flatt (who was consistent to a point, but didn't have enough firepower to keep up with Asada and Kim)
Czisny (whose skating makes Jekeyll and Hyde seem unextreme)

Now, Czisny did manage to land her jumps and win the Grand Prix Final, but she followed that up 1.5 years later with 22nd place at worlds. I would be surprised if her carer isn't over.

Flatt had that tibiagate thing, and has fallen out of favor with the USFS. Now at Stanford (IMO, the college with the hardest workload in the world), her skating career appears to be over.

Wagner managed to win 4CC (on home ice...it seems as if that's the only place where US Ladies can win 4CC). But then her short program demons resurfaced at Worlds 2012 costing her a medal. It remains to be seen if her "breakthrough" was temporary or permanent.

After re-inventing herself during the 2011-2012 season, Zhang got hammered by the judges at 2013 Nats for UR's. Her technical content is lacking, and she has never broken 177 for a total score EVER, nationally or internationally.

Nagasu also struggled with URs in the LP. She seems to show a lot of potential, but never realize it.



The amazing thing is that while being on the senior International Circuit for only 2.5 years, Kimmie still has a greater career than either of those five.

The Best US Ladies skater always finished 4th-7th at Worlds or Olympics.
Meissner (4th 2007 Worlds)
Meissner (7th 2008 Worlds)
Flatt (5th 2009 Worlds)
Nagasu (4th 2010 Olympics)
Nagasu (7th 2010 Worlds)
Czisny (5th 2011 Worlds)
Wagner (4th 2012 Worlds)



The Gold medalist at the 2014 Olympics will almost certainly break 200 for a total score. Unfortunately, I think that the ceiling for all of the US Ladies is below that.


BTW: Christina Gao is extraordinarily beautiful:
http://www.figureskatersonline.com/c..._personal2.htm

[demetriosj]

I think a confluence of events occurred in the same timeframe which altogether really hit US ladies in the gut -

1. As you stated, the US was slow to adapt to the new judging system
2. Mao Asada and Yu Na Kim, once-in-a-lifetime type talents and world beaters, enter the Senior ranks at the same time
3. Michelle Kwan and Sasha Cohen both effectively retire.
4. Ladies in Waiting, Kimmie Meissner, '06 World Champ, and her back-up Emily Hughes, simultaneously suffer some of the slowest, most horrific implosions by top US lady skaters that I've ever seen.

Kimmie and Emily left a big hole which forced a bunch of unprepared Juniors / newbie Seniors (Flatt, Nagasu, Zhang, Wagner), along with a talented headcase, Czisny, to rush out and contend with the likes of Mao, Yu Na, Miki, Joannie (who finally got it together).


It's really not that unfathomable that the US is not on the World's podium.

Plus many career-ending injuries from promising up and comers of that era.......

[Jammers]

It's obvious to me during the period that Kwan and Cohen dominated 2003-06 that there were not a lot of talented Junior skaters in the pipeline. If there were then there would been more depth for the US after they both retired in 2006. Instead it was up to Kimmie who was only 16 and Hughes who was never going to be a champion to carry on until the Junior ranks had some talent. To bad there was not a veteran skater or two that was at least competitive when Kwan and Cohan called it quits so the Junior kids didn't have to get pushed so quickly when they were not ready.

[UGG]

It's obvious to me during the period that Kwan and Cohen dominated 2003-06 that there were not a lot of talented Junior skaters in the pipeline. If there were then there would been more depth for the US after they both retired in 2006. Instead it was up to Kimmie who was only 16 and Hughes who was never going to be a champion to carry on until the Junior ranks had some talent. To bad there was not a veteran skater or two that was at least competitive when Kwan and Cohan called it quits so the Junior kids didn't have to get pushed so quickly when they were not ready.

Yes. Jenny Kirk and Alissa come to mind.

[fenway2]

I'd say if anyone started getting hammered overnight for their technique it was Mirai. I remember Caroline getting hammered at her very first grand prix event @ Skate America 2007. She had a ridiculously high number of jump downgrades but still managed to win bronze because the rest of the field was horrible. Mirai seemed to get hammered out of nowhere sometime after she won her first national title.

[smarts1]

I don't think Emily would have ever developed into a podium contender. She did have some really nice elements to her skating though and was good enough to be a dependable skater to maintain three spots. I think Kimmie could have improved if she just did not have all those injuries, but with Mao and Yuna, there really would have been no way she would ever have been a gold medal contender. I think she would have always had a shot at bronze though.

To the very least, Emily wasn't a headcase like half of our top US ladies today.

[UGG]

To the very least, Emily wasn't a headcase like half of our top US ladies today.

no. But she still was not a podium contender.

[RD]

Well, if you sort of think about it, Rachel Flatt was effectively Hughes' replacement for two years - dependable, if unimpressive on the top level.

But after Flatt went cold, that was it. Czisny and Nagasu, depends on the weather. Wagner, seemed to be on a hot streak but may have stepped into the refrigerator. Zhang, hindered by technical issues. Gold, experiencing growing pains under intense spotlight.

[demetriosj]

It's obvious to me during the period that Kwan and Cohen dominated 2003-06 that there were not a lot of talented Junior skaters in the pipeline. If there were then there would been more depth for the US after they both retired in 2006. .

Ye Bin Mok, for one, had one of the most beautiful, real lutzes I have ever seen. Again, she was stricken with injuries.

[Nomad]

I'd say if anyone started getting hammered overnight for their technique it was Mirai. I remember Caroline getting hammered at her very first grand prix event @ Skate America 2007. She had a ridiculously high number of jump downgrades but still managed to win bronze because the rest of the field was horrible...

I had to look up that comp to remember whom she beat. Even with a mediocre score of 153.35, she beat Emily Hughes, Mira Leung, Elene Gedevanishvili (I think this was around the time her mother got deported from Russia), Alexandra Ievleva (the forgotten Crapova Sister), Mai Asada, Tuğba Karademir, Valentina Marchei, and Xu Binshu. The scores for finishers 4-11 were 140 - 112 points. So yeah, not a strong field.

[olympic]

I think the writing on the wall was further evident for US ladies if you go back and analyze the ranks of skaters just below Kwan - Cohen in the '03 - '06 cycle -

Kirk, Nikodinov, McDonough and Liang were promising in certain respects, and perhaps 1 or 2 of them would've become top competitors in the '07 - '10 cycle had things worked out differently, but each dealt with their issues. Kirk and McDonough found no joy in skating. I'm not sure about Liang ...

OK, Nikodinov was a holdover from '98 - '02, so probably not her specifically.

I'm sure if any of them had blossomed in this time period, it would've contributed to a richer scene alongside Kimmie and Emily in the '07 - '10 quadrennial. This further contributed to the 'big hole' I discussed earlier.

[orbitz]

Kirk didn't have the "IT" factor to be a top dog, but at least she went for all of her triples most of the times.
Nikodinov couldn't control her double-itis and thus would've never become the #1 seed. Who else in the world consistently doubled everything after one mistake? That "strategy" never made sense to me.
Liang was way too inconsistent.
McDonough - I think her skating became lackluster after she matured. I couldn't see why some people were raving about her spins and jump, because I didn't see anything special about them when she was in Senior. Most of her triples had the obvious hooked landings that would've downgraded them, and all her programs looked the same since she basically did the same jump layouts in all of them.

[Loves_Shizuka]

^I don't quite get what you mean re: Nikodinov - are you saying she deliberately doubled her jumps?

[olympic]

Kirk didn't have the "IT" factor to be a top dog, but at least she went for all of her triples most of the times.
Nikodinov couldn't control her double-itis and thus would've never become the #1 seed. Who else in the world consistently doubled everything after one mistake? That "strategy" never made sense to me.
Liang was way too inconsistent.
McDonough - I think her skating became lackluster after she matured. I couldn't see why some people were raving about her spins and jump, because I didn't see anything special about them when she was in Senior. Most of her triples had the obvious hooked landings that would've downgraded them, and all her programs looked the same since she basically did the same jump layouts in all of them.

I was speaking of these ladies in general terms as stronger contenders, not necessarily winners of World's medals or National's crowns, just solid podium favorites at Nationals with a narrower gap between them and the Kwan / Cohen juggernaut, and perhaps top 10 Worlds favorites. For example, Kirk would go to Worlds and finish around 15th. I think if her life's circumstances had been different (death of her mother led to lack of interest in skating), she may have been able to give more to the sport and finished top 10 at Worlds. And Liang (remember the 3z-3l?) and McDonough IMO had a more raw talent than Kirk, so they could've also been top 10 at Worlds and ready for a move further up the ranks in the '07 - '10 era after Kwan and Cohen left, forming a cluster of elite ladies (along w/ Meissner and Hughes 2.0) that would've really given the US a deep bench. Again, those aforementioned ladies may not have been world-beaters, but if things had gone better in their skating lives, they would've given the US a deeper, reliable group to call upon when things went wrong with Meissner and Hughes, instead of relying on inexperienced Juniors

--------

I think the etymology of the JPN ladies is interesting and a lesson of things going RIGHT:

Dependable and lovely, Fumie Suguri became the 1st solid JPN skater over a decade ago, medalling at Worlds and together w/ Yoshie Onda, who had also struggled a bit going back to around 2000 but got it together, getting the JPN ladies 3 spots for '03 (I think). It just so happened that at the same time, Shizuka Arakawa finally realized her potential and wunderkind junior Miki Ando exploded onto the scene. Then, Mao burst onto the 2005 GP series and became a full-fledged Senior in '06 - '07. Arakawa and Ando had a bad year in '05 and '06 respectively, but Fumie was there, super dependable through '06 which allowed the JPN ladies to keep 3 spots. She was always luckily giving the right performance at the right time. And let's not forget Yukari Nakano, who 'covered' for Ando having a crap year in '08, still keeping 3 spots for JPN into '09. Then finally Akiko Suzuki started up the ladder in '08 or '09. Probably motivated by what she saw around her on her country's skating scene.

That's what happens when you have a deep dependable bench. A lot of times, they motivate eachother and not everyone will be a world beater, but they are there doing their best when they need to.

It's kind of the opposite of US ladies right now,

[Jammers]

I think the US ladies right now have a lot more depth then say in the last Olympic year back in 2010.

[cbd1235]

I think the US ladies right now have a lot more depth then say in the last Olympic year back in 2010.

Amen to that! Let's put a positive spin on things because everything is not that bad in the world of US ladies!! There may be a couple of headcases but time will tell whether or not they blossom into great competitors

[olympic]

^Yes. Please don't misunderstand me. I think they are in better shape than the last couple of seasons. But, I think we need more clutch performers.

[Jammers]

I think part of the problem is COP makes these skaters have to a lot more then the skaters had to do during 6.0. Would Kwan or Lipinksi have been as consistent if they had to do all the elements they have to do now? On the other hand i rarely if ever saw Michelle or Tara look terrified like certain US skaters do now.