U.S. Ladies [#7] Wagner's Rink Cycle

[RD]

Ashley should probably do the short and Gracie the long if you look at their recent results.

Definitely! Even with mistakes Gold is outscoring Wagner in the FS...

Once Gold gets a strong SP, that'll pretty much be it for Wagner as US champ

The big question is, can one (or both, even!) make a run at an Oly medal - or perhaps a post-Oly world medal? This may be the perfect opportunity for the US to get back on the podium again with no Kim, etc. (Since it's in Japan I'm assuming Asada will still go)

[judgejudy27]

Top skaters who are retiring usually (although not always) go to post Olympic Worlds so I wouldnt just presume Kim and Kostner wont go. Kim went in 2010 when she probably assumed she was retiring right after, and it was tougher for her to go that year than it will be any year of her career probably, so I will be surprised if she especialy doesnt.

[fenway2]

Top skaters who are retiring usually (although not always) go to post Olympic Worlds so I wouldnt just presume Kim and Kostner wont go. Kim went in 2010 when she probably assumed she was retiring right after, and it was tougher for her to go that year than it will be any year of her career probably, so I will be surprised if she especialy doesnt.

Kim was quoted in a post-worlds article as saying she really cherished the experience of this worlds because it was her last one.
Of course she could always change her mind, or be pressured into changing her mind.

[Sylvia]

I posted a post-Worlds Gracie Gold article in GSD earlier today: http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/show...=1#post3878296

[smarts1]

I was thinking about this, Marco. At quick glance of the protocols, she would've finished 4th above Murakami but for the freak fall in the FW sequence. She probably would've been 4th ahead of Osmond after the SP had she simply shot her hands above her head on the 2toe (like she had all season long). The second-guessing on the 3-3 and 2x-3t kept her a little less focused. Then again, weren't spins somewhat problematic at this rink? That seems to have been suggested in other threads and on other message boards. Also, it's suggested above that Ashley's focus seemed to shift towards getting 3 spots, not winning for herself.

Also, I didn't really dig too hard into the protocols, but would Ashley have been around Carolina or Mao's point totals with all level 4's and a 2x-2t? BTW, if we are talking about that 2nd jumping pass - Why not just strategize and change it to a 3t-2t? Heck, that's another point.

No. The other problem was Ashley was way below Mao, Carolina, and Yuna on PCS and between the SP and the LP, she was about 7ish points behind Mao, 10ish behind Carolina, and 12ish points behind Yuna. Although Ashley had the 4th highest PCS in both the SP and the LP, she will need to do some more if she wants to challenge them for a medal. I never really noticed this until I watched all the worlds videos, but you can really see the difference in skating quality between Ashley and the top 3. The top 3 are just so much better when it comes down to skating skills. Just watch a video of Ashley in her SP and then a video of Carolina during her SP and it really becomes evident.

Other than that, I feel that Mao was underscored on PCS in the in the SP and the LP. Does anyone else agree? I was kind of shocked that Carolina and Yuna were both ahead of her in PCS.

[judgejudy27]

Kim was quoted in a post-worlds article as saying she really cherished the experience of this worlds because it was her last one.
Of course she could always change her mind, or be pressured into changing her mind.

Hmm I had thought what she said was it could have been her last one, not that it was. Anyway I guess we will see. I suspect the Korean federation would not be at all happy with her not bothering to go a Worlds a mere one month after the Olympics though to keep more spots for Koreans for next year, and wanting or not she will be there.

[judgejudy27]

No. The other problem was Ashley was way below Mao, Carolina, and Yuna on PCS and between the SP and the LP, she was about 7ish points behind Mao, 10ish behind Carolina, and 12ish points behind Yuna. Although Ashley had the 4th highest PCS in both the SP and the LP, she will need to do some more if she wants to challenge them for a medal. I never really noticed this until I watched all the worlds videos, but you can really see the difference in skating quality between Ashley and the top 3. The top 3 are just so much better when it comes down to skating skills. Just watch a video of Ashley in her SP and then a video of Carolina during her SP and it really becomes evident.

Other than that, I feel that Mao was underscored on PCS in the in the SP and the LP. Does anyone else agree? I was kind of shocked that Carolina and Yuna were both ahead of her in PCS.

The huge problem for Ashley is that Mao, Carolina, and Yu Na are infinitely superior to her in both technical and presentation ability. She really has no place to go against them. In PCS they will score much higher as they have better skating skills and are better packaged skaters. In TES they obviously all have bigger tricks and jump content, and stronger non jump elements than she does. So she loses out on both sides, and needs alot of help. It was one thing when Mao and Carolina were doing watered down content, but now that they are pulling out the big tricks it really isnt a contest if they make comparable mistakes and performances. The only saving grace for her is Mao and Carolina never skate cleanly, even their better outings have a couple mistakes, and sometimes they can really crumble. So they can give her the opening perhaps, and she has to be ready and jump when it calls. Yu Na does not meltdown ever, especialy now that she is back and fully focused, so she really is out of Ashley's reach completely, even if she improves.

Then on the other side you have Gold, Tuktamysheva, and Sotnikova who are already much stronger technically than Ashley, and are maturing all the time and closing that PCS edge she has currently. Ashley needs to improve technically in the off season, and she cant rely on a big PCS forever against these more athletic youngsters. Osmond also lacks technical content relative to some, but she can already outscore even a good Ashley as the SP at Worlds showed. The young Chinese skater had an absolutely beautiful LP, excellent technically and artistically, which will probably score over 130 if she does it a second time. Then there is Murakami who did actually finish ahead of her at Worlds, although with her jump issues she is easily beatable by Ashley if Ashley puts it all down.

In short Ashley really has her work cut out for her.

[Mayra]

I'd love to see Gold go to someone like Dickson or Isley for choreography. Shae-Lynn Bourne? It is very obvious that while her current coaches have done an EXCELLENT job teaching her the basics, there is an artistic element missing to her skating that might be helped with some outside influence. IMO

[FSfan107]

The big question is, can one (or both, even!) make a run at an Oly medal - or perhaps a post-Oly world medal? This may be the perfect opportunity for the US to get back on the podium again with no Kim, etc. (Since it's in Japan I'm assuming Asada will still go)

I think Gold has a shot at an Olympic medal if one of the big 3 were to slip up at the Olympics. Gracie has the jumps, speed, and spins (loved the spins in her long program on Saturday). Of course she has had a big lack of choreography and artistry in her programs, and I hope this is one of her main focuses in the off-season. She also has to continue to fight her nerves but I think she showed growth over the course of the season in this regard. She was fighting the nerves on Saturday and had some minor errors but was able to avoid the bigger mistakes (and more importantly, she rotated all of her jumps to receive credit).

[demetriosj]

, but Phil bothers me by stating something to be fact when it's based on nothing but his assertion that Gracie has surpassed Ashley...which is fine if he thinks that but there is zero proof to his statement...........
Phil flip-flops so frequently b/w his saviors it makes my head hurt..........
It's obvious that Gracie is a podium contender but until she actually makes it to the top of a podium (not the one in Phil's head) or at least places higher than Ashley at an event, I think he should refrain from making such statements...

Alleluia!, Phil Hersh is a moron.

[cbd1235]

I would say that at this point Gold has her work cut out for her more than Ashley does. Ashley has shown she's got the technical goods based on practices at worlds, but she needs to get those in the program starting right away next season. Apart from that she needs rest and continued improvement in all aspects.

Gold on the other hand has all the technical goods and then some but she is still learning to compete. That's not easy, especially going into Olympic season. Hardest thing though, is for her to metamorphose into the artistic skater it will take to challenge the top guns for prized podium spots. I don't think she can do it on technical goods alone, so she needs a Kwan-esque change going into next year....not so easy to do.

They both have their work cut out for them, but I personally think Ashley will rise above again next year. Anyone else's thoughts?

[Cachoo]

I'd love to see Gold go to someone like Dickson or Isley for choreography. Shae-Lynn Bourne? It is very obvious that while her current coaches have done an EXCELLENT job teaching her the basics, there is an artistic element missing to her skating that might be helped with some outside influence. IMO

This.

[leafygreens]

FWIW, Ashley said she scheduled too many non-skating appearances this year and it wore her out. Next season she will be getting more rest and hopefully performs even better.

[Sylvia]

Jeremy Abbott tweeted this photo today: "Guess who's back, back again. Czisny's back. Tell a friend! #firstdayfun #knockonwood" http://instagram.com/p/XC71Vmm8JK/

[B.Cooper]

Is Wagner realistic? It is the lead in to the Olympics...the non-skating related events will escalate...and USFS WILL expect her to participate. Media events galore. She will need to find a way to stay focused...as the distractions will be there, she will have to compartmentalize them better.

[Sylvia]

FWIW, Ashley said she scheduled too many non-skating appearances this year and it wore her out.

Do you know when she said this and is there an article link for this?

Wagner still has World Team Trophy, April 11-14, in Japan (if she chooses to go) and the Canadian Stars on Ice tour, April 19-May 10, coming up.

[Chris_E]

Do you know when she said this and is there an article link for this?

Wagner still has World Team Trophy, April 11-14, in Japan (if she chooses to go) and the Canadian Stars on Ice tour, April 19-May 10, coming up.

I read it as well but don't recall where. I think she was specifically referring to events in the fall which she thinks contributed to being exhausted for the GPF.

[Sylvia]

Making their international debut for Team USA at Gardena Spring Trophy, April 1-3 in Italy are:
Junior Ladies: Polina Edmunds J1 at Nationals
Adv. Novice Ladies: Karen Chen J4

[olympic]

Making their international debut for Team USA at Gardena Spring Trophy, April 1-3 in Italy are:
Junior Ladies: Polina Edmunds J1 at Nationals
Adv. Novice Ladies: Karen Chen J4

Thanks. I wonder why we are sending Senior Men but no Senior Ladies. Same thing happened at Challenge Cup. I would have been a good opportunity for someone like Caroline Zhang to try and get a good score heading into an Olympic season.

[Sylvia]

I wonder why we are sending Senior Men but no Senior Ladies.

I posted a possible reason why in the U.S. Men's news thread in GSD: http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/show...=1#post3880111

I would have been a good opportunity for someone like Caroline Zhang to try and get a good score heading into an Olympic season.

ISU Season Best scores aren't counted at Senior B competitions like Gardena, only ISU World Standings ranking points for the top 5 finishers in Senior.

ETA: Zhang already competed in a Senior B and 2 Grand Prix events this season. The main purpose of the spring assignments to give the younger skaters their first international experience ahead of the JGP or to give Senior level skaters who did well at Nationals their first international assignment of the season.