U.S. Ladies [#7] Wagner's Rink Cycle

[AxelAnnie]

Boy, were it me, and after the season she has had, I wouldn't be training that 3/3. She is either smokn' good, or smoking something else. I just hope she is in fabulous shape and skates great....Love her to grab a podium spot.

[Loves_Shizuka]

Could really pay off - could be her undoing. I like the more aggressive approach; good for her!

[Marco]

Would that be a wiser strategy point-wise?

1st level strategy: since tagging a 3toe after any jump gets the same credit, it's best to tag it after the 2axel to maximise consistency. i.e. 2axel3toe and 3flip2toe get the same scores as 3flip3toe and 2axel2toe

2nd level strategy: for skaters like Wagner who aren't natural jumpers, it's hard enough to learn one big combo, let alone two. Best to stick with one for both programs.

On some level, I think Sot, Lip and Gold etc switching combos between short and long has reduced their consistency on those combos.

[NadineWhite]

It sure his going to be an interesting Big Worlds, my only hope as regards Ashley (& for that matter G.G.) is that they both rotate their jumps (look what happened to Cesario at jr. worlds) and skate *clean*. Once that is done let the chips fall where they may.

BRING IT ON, BRING IT ON!!!!

[olympic]

^ As for Wagner 3-3 & 2A/3T, I'll believe it when I see it/them.

Yes. Unfortunately, this is what we have to do.

Why split her focus and practice 2 new combos? She could use the 3flip3toe in both the short and the free.

Very interesting point. A clean 3-3 in the LP might indirectly boost her PCS a little as well. But, would the mechanics really be all that different if she is solid and can do both the 3f and 2x in her sleep?

[leafygreens]

Yes, for both the SP and FS portions.

Good, at least Sam gets some kind of medal (a gold one!)

[Jammers]

If Gracie improves her all around skater next season Ashley will have no option but to start doing 3-3 combo's or perhaps start getting beat by her own teammate.

[love_skate2011]

If Gracie improves her all around skater next season Ashley will have no option but to start doing 3-3 combo's or perhaps start getting beat by her own teammate.

but will she ? she isn't getting younger and the younger teens will be nipping at her heels soon as they get more experience
I don't think Wagner will be that much of a factor after 2014, Graciie I will agree is the future

[Mayra]

If Gracie improves her all around skater next season Ashley will have no option but to start doing 3-3 combo's or perhaps start getting beat by her own teammate.

Maybe it's just me, but I doubt either girl's training environment is revolving around each other. Worlds is just around the corner and both girls are probably training to skate and place as high as possible vs the Worlds best and not thinking about a competition nearly a year away vs each other. That involves improving PCS for Gracie and TES for Ashley. I realize US fans like to fan the rivalry flames, but they are not each other's biggest obstacles at this time IMO.

[aftershocks]

It's always interesting to check out the World figure skating medalists list throughout the years:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_F..._Championships

It looks like the U.S. ladies' eight straight World bronze medal wins from 1984 to 1991 is a record (not much talked about). We hear more about the U.S. ladies' sweep at 1991 Worlds (which was a fluke due to Midori Ito falling out of the rink in the sp). In addition six straight gold medal wins are shared by U.S. ladies, Tenley Albright in 1955, and Carol Heiss from 1956 to 1960 (Tenley also won gold in 1953). Heiss set the record for 5 straight golds coming after Henie's earlier all-time record of 10 straight golds (of course Henie's 10 straight gold medals are reportedly somewhat questionable due to her father's involvement with officials). Then of course, Michelle Kwan tied Heiss' record of 5 World golds, although Kwan's victories did not come in 5 straight years.

[Karpenko]

The 3flip/3toe in the SP and 2axel/3toe in the LP is what she's been training (and attempted last year when she won 4CC over Mao) for 2 seasons now and they are not new combos for her. I'm a bit why there is this panic as if its new difficulty. If she wants to be in contention to be World Champion, she will need both. I would love to see her medal at this Worlds, she will need to attack the hell out of it though. I think she can do it.

[IceAlisa]

Oh you know, we need a bit of drama the week before the Worlds. And why not throw in the old "Ashley is over the hill and can't hold it together against some mysterious US teens nipping at her heels." I wonder who they are, Gold who has a lot to prove, aside.

[Marco]

The 3flip/3toe in the SP and 2axel/3toe in the LP is what she's been training (and attempted last year when she won 4CC over Mao) for 2 seasons now and they are not new combos for her. I'm a bit why there is this panic as if its new difficulty. If she wants to be in contention to be World Champion, she will need both. I would love to see her medal at this Worlds, she will need to attack the hell out of it though. I think she can do it.

They are not new combos for her, but she rarely attempts them, let alone lands them cleanly. Her attempts at WTT last season was closest since her break through, but even then she got negative GOEs on them. And those were her 3rd attempts at competitions last season.

This season she has yet to attempt them at all.

[olympic]

I think Ashley hit the 3f-3t at '12 WTT, and I also remember her doing one during the '10 - '11 GP season when she was still coached by Priscilla before receiving improved jump technique from Nicks. It's probably not a matter of her track record at this stage, it's a matter of where her head is and what she is laying out on practice ice right now in full run-throughs (which we don't know) because she historically seems competitive and ambitious. She has nothing to defend at Worlds and she is chasing Kim, Kostner and Asada score-wise which is a good position for an ambitious, competitive skater to be in. Skipping 4CC's was a good move. She will have had 6 weeks to regroup.

Hopefully, the USFSA or outside figures aren't putting the magic # 13 pressure on her (or Gracie for that matter), that's the one thing I can see clouding her (or Gracie's) mind as they step on the ice.

[FunnyBut]

For me Ashley's 3-3s (and 2A-3T) are like Kwan's and Slutskaya's. They couldn't depend on them, they trotted them out once or twice a season during the biggest comps and hope they suceeded.

Fast forward for a decade and a half, and ladies are doing them in every competition, both short and long programs. The level of consistency is simply not the same, and Ashley doesn't have the confidence on the 3-3s that Tukt/Sokt/Gold/Kim/Suzuki/Osmond etc have. I'm not putting her down, I just think her strengths are mature, seamless presentation , not 3-3s, and she should stick to her strengths. By doing so, I think she has a good possibility of beating the majority of Sokt/Tukt/Gold/Suzuki/Murakami/Osmond. All those girls seem much stronger at the 3-3s than Ashley, but they are more likely to make mistakes elsewhere, and have more errors overall, which negates the points earned on their 3-3s relative to a clean Ashley. In short, skate smart, not hard.

[RD]

I don't foresee Team Wagner taking any massive risks. If anything they're more likely to play it safe if she isn't showing consistency on them.

At the same time, she knows better than anyone else that if you want the title, you have to skate for it, not play it safe and hope others screw up so you can back into it. Now, the latter has happened, but it is the exception rather than the rule.

If she wants to be 4th or 5th again, playing it safe might be a good idea. But if she really wants to challenge for a medal, it's going to take more.

[olympic]

I don't foresee Team Wagner taking any massive risks. If anything they're more likely to play it safe if she isn't showing consistency on them.

At the same time, she knows better than anyone else that if you want the title, you have to skate for it, not play it safe and hope others screw up so you can back into it. Now, the latter has happened, but it is the exception rather than the rule.

If she wants to be 4th or 5th again, playing it safe might be a good idea. But if she really wants to challenge for a medal, it's going to take more.

...which is an interesting situation: Is there any pressure to get 3 spots put on individual skaters by the USFSA? If so, team Wagner might go for 'safe' but as I said, it really depends on her mindset and what she's been doing in practice the last month.

[Sylvia]

From Wagner's pre-Worlds media teleconference call (link to listen was posted earlier) in reply to the question of "How much is it weighing on you?":
"I was personally affected the most directly from only having 2 spots going into the last Olympics and this the U.S. ladies' last shot to get that third spot back. So there is definitely a ton of pressure at this competition and I think that the U.S. is sending a very capable team. I think that Gracie and I, as long as we skate solid performances, we'll be able to accomplish that. but I am definitely aware that there is a lot at stake at this competition."

[leafygreens]

I don't think it's a wise decision to throw in a 3/3 that you haven't done all season. Ashley should play it safe. Even if she gets 4th or 5th, everyone will be happy because it's a solid contribution to getting the third spot.

[Sylvia]

Wagner stated in her media teleconference call that "Mr. Nicks calls the shots and going into Worlds he'll make the final decision" [about trying the 3F+3T in the SP and/or 2A+3T in the FS]. She has been consistent in saying this all season long.