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  1. #341
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    Quote Originally Posted by emma1227 View Post
    I think Ashley needs the 3/3 to stay ahead of people like Adelina and Liza, but I don't know if it will get her to the podium. If the top girls make mistakes, possibly. So many factors to consider..ahhh!
    Liza hasn't been so strong or consistent in the SP this season though, and Adelina's content is 3t-3t and 3f so not hugely ambitious, if she hits all her jumps she'll get big GOEs which will give her a good score a la at Europeans, but she's unpredictable as of late and that 3f has been her "problem jump" all season and particularly in the SP. I do wonder if trying to address the flutz has messed up Sotnikova's consistency with the 3f, it used to be one of her best jumps. I honestly wonder if she'd be better off swtiching her solo jump in the SP to a 3lz or 3lo instead, just to avoid any of the bad voodo she may have with the 3f given the fits she's had with it this season. Anyways, even if Liza skates a clean SP, I don't think her score will be particularly high and I think a clean Gracie and Ashley (maybe with a 3-2 even) could probably hold her off. Tuk's PCS aren't that high and usually they jump a bit from SP to FS, I think because she usually skates really incredible FS programs and gets a bit of the "WOW technical content!" PCS boot in the FS just because it's normal for her to come out and land her 3lz-3t, 2a-3t in the bonus, and just about everything else like it's no big deal when she competes as of late. SP though, maybe clean with 3lz-3t she can get a big score, but otherwise, I don't think the scores will go that high. The worry more with Tuk is her making up ground big time in the FS which she is obviously capable of because she has the hardest content of anyone except for 4CC Mao (who is unlikely to get full credit for rotating all that planned content anyways) in the FS and has been good about executing that kind of content pretty consistently in competition this season.

  2. #342
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    Quote Originally Posted by pinky166 View Post
    Liza hasn't been so strong or consistent in the SP this season though, and Adelina's content is 3t-3t and 3f so not hugely ambitious, if she hits all her jumps she'll get big GOEs which will give her a good score a la at Europeans, but she's unpredictable as of late and that 3f has been her "problem jump" all season and particularly in the SP. I do wonder if trying to address the flutz has messed up Sotnikova's consistency with the 3f, it used to be one of her best jumps. I honestly wonder if she'd be better off swtiching her solo jump in the SP to a 3lz or 3lo instead, just to avoid any of the bad voodo she may have with the 3f given the fits she's had with it this season. Anyways, even if Liza skates a clean SP, I don't think her score will be particularly high and I think a clean Gracie and Ashley (maybe with a 3-2 even) could probably hold her off. Tuk's PCS aren't that high and usually they jump a bit from SP to FS, I think because she usually skates really incredible FS programs and gets a bit of the "WOW technical content!" PCS boot in the FS just because it's normal for her to come out and land her 3lz-3t, 2a-3t in the bonus, and just about everything else like it's no big deal when she competes as of late. SP though, maybe clean with 3lz-3t she can get a big score, but otherwise, I don't think the scores will go that high. The worry more with Tuk is her making up ground big time in the FS which she is obviously capable of because she has the hardest content of anyone except for 4CC Mao (who is unlikely to get full credit for rotating all that planned content anyways) in the FS and has been good about executing that kind of content pretty consistently in competition this season.
    ITA.

    I think the final 2 groups for Ladies @ Worlds will look something like this -

    penultimate - Gold, Tuktamysheva, Murakami, Osmond, Gedevanishvili, Marchei. Leonova might sneak in there instead of Gede. I added Gede because she now and then does a superb job in the SP and can easily score over 60.
    final - Kostner, Asada, Kim, Wagner, Sotnikova, Suzuki

    Gold or Murakami might sneak into the final group if Sotnikova whiffs on the 3f or Wagner can't control her ambitions

  3. #343

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    Am I the only one who thinks Ashley should definitely NOT attempt any 3-3s? I think her main strength against the others is the she put together two seamless, error-free, polished intl competitions at the start of the season. Think about it, no one else has been close to that.

    Her 3f-2tano is beautiful and flows effortless in and out of the choreography, it has to add to her overall PCS. I'm afraid a stalked, botched or eeked out 3-3 will break the spell.

    Worlds will be so pressure filled, and most of these ladies are not that consistent, I'm guessing the great majority of them will make a couple mistakes and botch up either SP, LP or both. Ashley is one of the very few that can comfortably skate an entire clean competition. I'm not sure if there's even one other lady who is likely to be totally clean and rotated, maybe YNK, and she's out of reach anyway. Consistency and performance quality are her strengths, not 3-3s. Leave the 3-3s to Gold, Tukt, Sokt and everyone else. They might land their 3-3s, but they're likely to mess up somewhere else.

    FWIW, I strongly expressed that Shizuka should leave out her 3-3s in Torino , too (since they're often UR). I thought she was pretty much guarenteed some sort of medal with any clean program. Of course, I didn't know Sasha and Irina would mess up as much as they did.

  4. #344
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    Quote Originally Posted by FunnyBut View Post
    ...FWIW, I strongly expressed that Shizuka should leave out her 3-3s in Torino , too (since they're often UR). I thought she was pretty much guarenteed some sort of medal with any clean program. Of course, I didn't know Sasha and Irina would mess up as much as they did.
    Sasha was always guaranteed to splat in the LP. Irina's screw-ups were more out of character.

    I guess if Ashley draws late, she can see how the competition does beforehand. But, those types of last minute debates w/ yourself can lead to mental unpreparedness. I think she should just understand that the 1) competition is fierce, and 2) if she's hitting them in practice, she should just.do.it. (to quote Nike).

  5. #345

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    I don't think she should do the 3-3 in the short for all the reasons Funnybut mentioned. The 2a-3t in the long would be better to focus on, imo.
    Keeper of Nathalie Pechelat's bitchface.

  6. #346
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    Christina Gao article in Harvard Gazette: http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/stor...ue-of-her-own/
    Re. taking time off starting this semester:
    “It wasn’t an easy decision,” said Gao, who also recently placed fifth at the nationals. “I wasn’t able to work out my courses to fit my schedule, and so I decided to take this year to train. Harvard will always be here for me, but the chance to try for the Olympics doesn’t happen very often.”
    ...
    But Gao is passionate about skating, its peaks and pitfalls. “It’s really hard most of the time. I’m always tired and sore, and sometimes I don’t think I can handle it. But in the end, I always seem to push through, I think because I truly love it,” she said.
    "Randy [Starkman (1960-April 16, 2012)] lived by the same motto as the rest of us. The Olympics isn’t every four years, it’s every single day. He just got it." --Canadian Olympic kayaker Adam van Koeverden

  7. #347
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    I don't know, do we like the draws for the 3 ladies skaters at Jr. Worlds?

  8. #348
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    Considering Yasmin Siraj is ranked #92 in the current ISU World Standings (since she has not competed internationally since her Sept. 2011 JGP 5th place in Latvia last season), drawing to skate in the 3rd to last group isn't unexpected or bad (the top 12 ranked ladies draw to skate in the final 2 groups of the SP - Elena Radionova was the 12th at #77!).

    Re-posting from the 2013 Junior Worlds forum in Kiss and Cry...
    Courtney Hicks plans to try 3Lz+3T in her SP for the first time, according to one of her coaches, Alex Chang, in this ladies/dance preview article: http://web.icenetwork.com/news/artic...&vkey=ice_news
    "Randy [Starkman (1960-April 16, 2012)] lived by the same motto as the rest of us. The Olympics isn’t every four years, it’s every single day. He just got it." --Canadian Olympic kayaker Adam van Koeverden

  9. #349
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    Yay for Christina! I have to believe that things will be easier for her if she takes some time off from school, if only because she has more options for ice time.

  10. #350
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    I am confused. I thought you can't take time off during the first year?

  11. #351

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    Quote Originally Posted by jlai View Post
    I am confused. I thought you can't take time off during the first year?
    But won't it be her second year?

  12. #352
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    I'm so happy that I found a video of Mirai's 2007 SP: http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XNDU2NzA3Njcy.html
    It's her first international program ever at junior worlds <and for my future reference, so I don't have to keep searching for it anymore>

    it wasn't perfect but boy have things changed

    No more spirals and the judges used to give such low PCS scores for juniors. IMO Mirai had some of the best choreography/edge work than most of the elite juniors nowadays but her PCS was only 22+. Judges are now judging juniors slightly too lenient IMO.

  13. #353
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    Quote Originally Posted by AJ Skatefan View Post
    But won't it be her second year?
    Yes. As a freshman at Harvard, you have to be a full-time student. After your first year, you can take take off, go part time, pretty much whatever. It's not the only university to have such a policy. I personally think this is a smart move for Christina. I can't imagine how tough it must be keeping everything in balance - I imagine she either sleeps very little or is extremely good at managing her time and has really avoided adapting to the typical "college time clock", but I'd imagine that would be tough with 3 roommates.

  14. #354
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sylvia View Post
    Re-posting from the 2013 Junior Worlds forum in Kiss and Cry...
    Courtney Hicks plans to try 3Lz+3T in her SP for the first time, according to one of her coaches, Alex Chang, in this ladies/dance preview article: http://web.icenetwork.com/news/artic...&vkey=ice_news

    Thanks for the info. about Courtney, I've been watching this link ~ http://www.isuresults.com/results/wjc2013/SEG003.HTM ~ to see how she does, and was blown away to see that she tied the Russian for 2nd, but in tiebreakers it's broken by the technical score in the SP versus the PCS score in the FS. And further shock Samantha Cesario is in 1st place! Isn't she the one that skated to "Swan Lake" at Nationals. If so I can see why she's in first place so far, but Courtney kicks a** with those jumps! GOOD LUCK TO ALL THE AMERICANS!

    ps: throwing my $0.00 cents in regards to Ashley and the 3/3 combo. Yes, I can see why some would prefer her not to go for it because ever since I can remember (way back when she first entered seniors) she's been able to rotate it but usually receives an UR or downgrade on the second jump, or worse a fall. Yet, greatness needs to take risks, and if she's thinking ahead for Sochi and Nationals next year, she needs to start N-O-W! Jmho.

  15. #355

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    Quote Originally Posted by demetriosj View Post
    I don't know, do we like the draws for the 3 ladies skaters at Jr. Worlds?
    No this is the USFS being shortsighted as always. Hannah Miller medaled in all 3 of her JGP events this season but it's not enough to make the team? The JGP is to develop young skaters and leaving Miller and Angela Wang off the team was a huge mistake. Jasmin hadn't even competed this season yet because she finished ahead of both Miller and Wang at US Nationals she got the spot. So basically all the success Hannah and Angela had this season was almost for nothing. And guess what Yasmin is in 13th place after the SP at Jr Worlds. I rest my case.

  16. #356
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    No this is the USFS being shortsighted as always. Hannah Miller medaled in all 3 of her JGP events this season but it's not enough to make the team? The JGP is to develop young skaters and leaving Miller and Angela Wang off the team was a huge mistake. Jasmin hadn't even competed this season yet because she finished ahead of both Miller and Wang at US Nationals she got the spot. So basically all the success Hannah and Angela had this season was almost for nothing. And guess what Yasmin is in 13th place after the SP at Jr Worlds. I rest my case.
    I really love Yasmin but I do agree that, given the success Miller and Wang had on the JGP, it would have been better to send one of those two over her, if only b/c the judges know them better this season. Wang has the firepower and presentation and Miller has the pizazz and charisma. I think either one of them would have scored better.

    Yasmin is a lovely skater but her jumps aren't very strong. I'm impressed with her great SS, TR and her CH and IN but the internationals judges (especially at a junior level competition) don't give a sh*t about that so she doesn't get the recognition she deserves for it.

  17. #357

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    No this is the USFS being shortsighted as always. Hannah Miller medaled in all 3 of her JGP events this season but it's not enough to make the team? The JGP is to develop young skaters and leaving Miller and Angela Wang off the team was a huge mistake. Jasmin hadn't even competed this season yet because she finished ahead of both Miller and Wang at US Nationals she got the spot. So basically all the success Hannah and Angela had this season was almost for nothing. And guess what Yasmin is in 13th place after the SP at Jr Worlds. I rest my case.
    Looking at the results for the short, everyone is ridiculously close. Siraj is 13th after the sp but only 7 points off the top spot. While it would be very hard for Siraj to make up the ground to medal, by no means would I rest any case until the lp is over. JMO

  18. #358
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    Where's a Hersh article about Cesario in first! and Courtney Hicks in third (really tied for second) at Junior World's after the Short? Doesn't he find that newsworthy?!

  19. #359

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    Quote Originally Posted by demetriosj View Post
    Where's a Hersh article about Cesario in first! and Courtney Hicks in third (really tied for second) at Junior World's after the Short? Doesn't he find that newsworthy?!
    Judging by the protocols it doesn't look like the SP was anything to write home about. As someone else pointed out, it's really, really close amongst all the top skaters and it would not be shocking at all if the Russians still wound up 1-2 in the medals. SPs in the 53s (even in Jrs.) don't speak of a high quality event.

  20. #360
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    Quote Originally Posted by demetriosj View Post
    Where's a Hersh article about Cesario in first! and Courtney Hicks in third (really tied for second) at Junior World's after the Short? Doesn't he find that newsworthy?!
    Neither girl is from the Midwest/Chicago area.

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