U.S. Ladies [#7] Wagner's Rink Cycle

[demetriosj]

Any reports on Courtney Hicks planned jumps/combinations, etc. for Jr. World's? and thoughts on her chances of making the podium? I feel she is a very strong contender. Sorry if this is being discussed elsewhere.

[kwanatic]

ITA re: Adelina's scores.
I'm not too much a fan of her FS but her SP is very strong and when she hits her jumps she deserves a high 60s score. She performs that program very well with lots of energy and fire and the rest of her skating from a presentation standpoint is top 5 material: great speed and coverage, nice deep edges, gorgeous lines, difficult spins and steps, plus the program (as well as her skating) leaves a really nice impression on the ice...she could definitely match Ashley if not beat her in the SP.

[kwanatic]

Any reports on Courtney Hicks planned jumps/combinations, etc. for Jr. World's? and thoughts on her chances of making the podium? I feel she is a very strong contender. Sorry if this is being discussed elsewhere.

I'm guessing she'll stick with the same layout she's had all season.

I think her chances are pretty decent of making the podium but I don't see anyone beating Elena Radionova right now. That kid has been on fire all season long and she's the fav to win. The judges like Courtney so if she can put down two solid performances she should have a good shot at 2nd or 3rd but she does have others to contend with like Anna Pogorilaya and Hannah Miller. She missed the JGPF so she's at a slight disadvantage (the other 3 all medaled) but like I said, two strong programs should put her back in the mix.

[Sylvia]

The 3 U.S. ladies going to Junior Worlds are Hicks, Samantha Cesario, and Yasmin Siraj.

Hicks was only doing 3Lo+2T combo in her SP on the JGP this past fall, so she will likely upgrade to at least 3Lz+2T and 3F (flip is required) in the SP.

Cesario will likely stick with her 3Lo+2T in the SP and I'm guessing Siraj will go with 3Lz+2T or 3T+3T - whichever is more consistent for her.

ETA: Elena Radionova, Julia Lipnitskaia, Anna Pogorilaya, Satoko Miyahara, Rika Hongo, Gabrielle Daleman and Alaine Chartrand look to be the main contenders from the other countries, plus Hae-Jin Kim, if she's healthy.

[kwanatic]

The 3 U.S. ladies going to Junior Worlds are Hicks, Samantha Cesario, and Yasmin Siraj.

Oh yeah...I forgot Hannah didn't get the spot.

Well in that case Courtney's chances are higher but she'd have to be clean to beat Anna (assuming she made mistakes) and I don't see her beating Elena. Both girls have more difficult jumps though Courtney does skate bigger. I don't think junior worlds will be as competitive as it's been in the last two years. For once, senior worlds is looking like the more interesting competition.

[RD]

You keep repeating this ad nauseum. I think we're all aware of what happened at the GPF and Nationals by now. Thankfully, Ashley has had some time to regroup now.

What I'm really getting at here is let's not take it for granted that she will easily make up ground in the FS if she lacks a competitive SP.

It probably won't be an easy decision for Team Wagner whether to go for the 3-3 or not, since a bad miss could possibly be worse than doing a clean 3-2. Yet a 3-2 likely won't be enough if all the others hit.

As long as she gets into that final FS group she has a shot - IF she can hit.

I'm more worried about Gold in the SP though than I am about Wagner.

[pinky166]

She may have BEEN a strong free skater...however, she's had four falls in her last two attempts. Whoops

Her track record this season though, even including those falls, is still better than someone like Gracie or Agnes, however, and those two don't have injuries or illness (at least not that they mentioned publicly) that likely attributed to weakened stamina/consistency like Ashley did at GPF and Nats.

Ashley in the SP is really the least of my worries right now. Even Gracie in the SP I'm not that worried about because I think she is still likely to wind up in the penultimate warmup for the FS with mistakes in the SP so long as she doesn't completely tank, and even clean making the final flight after the SP might be tough for her. If you're going to say Ashley's track record in the FS isn't so good....what do you have to say about Gracie? Ashley's had a few falls but Gracie has had a number of falls, pops, stumbles, and turnouts across her competitive FS performances this season. It's encouraging she manages to score decently with all those mistakes but still, with the depth of this field, it's a concern, especially because she's so capable of brilliantly executing ALL the jumps in her FS as we saw at US Nats.

[mag]

The 3 U.S. ladies going to Junior Worlds are Hicks, Samantha Cesario, and Yasmin Siraj.

Hicks was only doing 3Lo+2T combo in her SP on the JGP this past fall, so she will likely upgrade to at least 3Lz+2T and 3F (flip is required) in the SP.

Cesario will likely stick with her 3Lo+2T in the SP and I'm guessing Siraj will go with 3Lz+2T or 3T+3T - whichever is more consistent for her.

ETA: Elena Radionova, Julia Lipnitskaia, Anna Pogorilaya, Satoko Miyahara, Rika Hongo, Gabrielle Daleman and Alaine Chartrand look to be the main contenders from the other countries, plus Hae-Jin Kim, if she's healthy.

Very refreshing yet strange to see to Canadian women listed in this paragraph. We've come a long way baby!

[olympic]

Very refreshing yet strange to see to Canadian women listed in this paragraph. We've come a long way baby!

Yes. And as your neighbor to the South, I'm also jealous of your success in pairs and men's singles right now.

----------------------------------

I think a big concern for most US skating fans is that we don't for sure know what exactly happened to Ashley at the GPF and Nationals, and we can't make any presumptions or rational predictions on what she'll do at Worlds. This probably is further fraying the nerves of US skating fans, already frayed by years of frustration of waiting for a medal or even 3 spots. Nor can we predict what will happen in regards to Gracie. We won't know anything until they step on the ice in London, Ontario.

[Coco]

If Gracie makes mistakes in the SP, she could very well end up between 13 & 16th place. It would all depend on how others due. As excited as USFSA is about her, she's learning to compete at this level and manage her nerves. If they haven't put all their political might behind Ashley, they are FOOLS.

[RD]

If you're going to say Ashley's track record in the FS isn't so good....what do you have to say about Gracie?

Honestly, I was simply stating facts. Not really trying to suggest anything about her "track record".

As for Gold I think I've said many times already - flip a (weighted) coin, heads, she'll do OK, tails, she'll completely tank (ala Czisny...not very reassuring now, is it?)

[mgobluegirl]

ETA: Elena Radionova, Julia Lipnitskaia, Anna Pogorilaya, Satoko Miyahara, Rika Hongo, Gabrielle Daleman and Alaine Chartrand look to be the main contenders from the other countries, plus Hae-Jin Kim, if she's healthy.

What about So Youn Park? She's done well this year, but maybe I missed her not being on the JW roster?

[olympic]

BTW, Kostner won the Challenge Cup, scored 198 pts. total.

126 pts. in the LP - Clean 3z, but popped a couple of jumps and went for a 3f-3t and UR'd it. Excellent, but not overwhelming.

[jlai]

What about So Youn Park? She's done well this year, but maybe I missed her not being on the JW roster?

She's on the roster I thought

[pinky166]

Honestly, I was simply stating facts. Not really trying to suggest anything about her "track record".

As for Gold I think I've said many times already - flip a (weighted) coin, heads, she'll do OK, tails, she'll completely tank (ala Czisny...not very reassuring now, is it?)

Well there's also the chance she pulls another blinder like in her US Nats FS. Gracie is like a 3 sided coin - mind boggling jumping clinic, good/ok, meltdown. Usually it's somewhere in the middle though and considering the strength of her jumps, she can rack up a lot of TES points just by hitting a few of her planned jumping passes in her FS well. I was more just saying, even with the falls, Ashley is still one of the more consistent freeskaters among US senior ladies currently, and she actually has been for a number of years now. Even before she was a really a top gun in the US and internationally, she usually skated strong FS programs on the GP and Nationals and such. Not saying lights out perfect every time, but usually pretty decent - not a lot of falls or pops.

[judgejudy27]

Even if Gold skated her best I dont think she could do anymore than contribute strongly to the U.S regaining 3 spots. Her LP at Nationals which is the best she is capable of at this time would only score mid 120s probably in front of an international panel. There are some women at Worlds who will probably be scoring 140 range or higher in the LP. Then several women capable of scoring in the 70s in the SP as well. Wagner has more shot of a medal but would need some help, as well as recapturing her early season form.

[Sylvia]

What about So Youn Park? She's done well this year, but maybe I missed her not being on the JW roster?

No insult was intended to Park - she's the only non-USA JGP ladies' medalist from this season competing at Jr. Worlds that I failed to mention yesterday:
Gold - Radionova (3, incl. at Final), Pogorilaya, Miyahara, Kim
Silver - Hicks, Hongo, Park
Bronze - Pogorilaya (2, incl. at Final), Miyahara, Cesario
(I'll cross-post this list later in the Jr. Worlds forum in Kiss and Cry.)

BTW, Agnes Zawadzki is performing in the annual "Rondy on Ice" shows in Anchorage, Alaska this weekend.

[Jammers]

Even if Gold skated her best I dont think she could do anymore than contribute strongly to the U.S regaining 3 spots. Her LP at Nationals which is the best she is capable of at this time would only score mid 120s probably in front of an international panel. There are some women at Worlds who will probably be scoring 140 range or higher in the LP. Then several women capable of scoring in the 70s in the SP as well. Wagner has more shot of a medal but would need some help, as well as recapturing her early season form.

Mid 120s is nothing to sneeze at for a first year Senior who has lots to improve on. With just a little more improvement to her her overall skating she will be a threat to the top Ladies and Wagner might find her reign as top US Lady over very quickly.

[Jammers]

Even if Gold skated her best I dont think she could do anymore than contribute strongly to the U.S regaining 3 spots. Her LP at Nationals which is the best she is capable of at this time would only score mid 120s probably in front of an international panel. There are some women at Worlds who will probably be scoring 140 range or higher in the LP. Then several women capable of scoring in the 70s in the SP as well. Wagner has more shot of a medal but would need some help, as well as recapturing her early season form.

Mid 120s is nothing to sneeze at for a first year Senior who has lots to improve on. With just a little more improvement to her overall skating she will be a threat to the top Ladies and Wagner might find her reign as top US Lady over very quickly.

[pinky166]

Mid 120s is nothing to sneeze at for a first year Senior who has lots to improve on. With just a little more improvement to her her overall skating she will be a threat to the top Ladies and Wagner might find her reign as top US Lady over very quickly.

This. And just because skaters like Kim, Kostner, Asada have the POTENTIAL to score in the 140s for the FS, doesn't mean they actually will. Mao broke 130 for the first time this season at 4CC just a couple weeks ago, and that was with a very good skate where she attempted content. Yuna's NRW FS likely would score in the mid-high 120s at Worlds, but the scores at that event were pretty generous so she broke 130s. Like I said, Euros scores seemed high so there's a chance at Worlds that both Tuk and Kostner's FS programs from Euros would be in the high 120s if judged under a different panel. If Gracie skates clean in the FS I expect her to score and place VERY WELL relative to the field. Sure, it could mean 6th in that segment if all the contenders kill the FS, but it could also mean like 2nd if mistakes from others slip in here and there.