U.S. Ladies [#7] Wagner's Rink Cycle

[demetriosj]

I think part of the problem is COP makes these skaters have to a lot more then the skaters had to do during 6.0. Would Kwan or Lipinksi have been as consistent if they had to do all the elements they have to do now? On the other hand i rarely if ever saw Michelle or Tara look terrified like certain US skaters do now.

Well, on the other hand, with 6.0, Short programs needed to be completely clean and truly counted toward your final placement. That's a heck of a lot of pressure!

With COP, you can make mistakes, plural!, in the Short and still medal, even at Nationals!! Something's wrong with that.............

Also, Michelle and Tara had nerves of steel.

[AxelAnnie]

And, Tara and Michelle truly loved what they were doing. That love, joy, freedom and abandon is what drew you in.

Also, I don't think either of these ladies EVER thought they were entitled. For them it was a privilege every time they took the ice.

There may have been disappointment, but never a "pout".

[kwanatic]

Okay, so I'm cross posting this from Great Debate, but it is relevant to the thread so, yeah...

I decided to take a second look at nationals and judge the competition for myself. I know I'll get blasted for some of the scores I gave but overall I tried to be as fair and balanced as I could be. I'm interested to know what everyone thinks...

http://thenakedice.blogspot.com/2013...nationals.html

I think I'll go hide for a little bit...

[jlai]

Ever since Kimmie in 08 USFS has had trouble with timing and momentum and not being able to send ladies to compete at their peak.

Some talented girls are stuck doing jgps over and over; others get prime time before getting enough jgp exposure (because they spent half to 1 season waiting for jgp assignments). And by the time the girls have had enough experience, college figures into their equations.

Just look at Makarova, for instance. US has plenty of girls as talented as her but with the right timing she has fulfilled her potential to some extent (maybe not to her fans' satisfaction, but she fulfilled more of her potential than if she had stayed competing for the US).

US has ladies as talented as Tuk. Tuk gained her confidence from dominating the juniors and built momenum from that expereince. Again, timing and momentum...

Russian ladies (okay, mainly Leonova) seized the opportunities during 2011 and 12 worlds and built up momentum for the Russian team towards Sochi. There were similar opportunities for US ladies in the past, and those were the years when the right US ladies team could have made a difference at worlds.

[victoriaheidi]

Okay, so I'm cross posting this from Great Debate, but it is relevant to the thread so, yeah...

I decided to take a second look at nationals and judge the competition for myself. I know I'll get blasted for some of the scores I gave but overall I tried to be as fair and balanced as I could be. I'm interested to know what everyone thinks...

http://thenakedice.blogspot.com/2013...nationals.html

I think I'll go hide for a little bit...

I'm actually in agreement with you.

[PDilemma]

I'm actually in agreement with you.

Me, too.

[Sylvia]

Five favorite things with Christina Gao: http://web.icenetwork.com/news/artic...&vkey=ice_news

[victoriaheidi]

Someone recently pointed out to me that Christina would make an amazing Rhodes Scholar someday.

[b-man]

I decided to take a second look at nationals and judge the competition for myself. I know I'll get blasted for some of the scores I gave but overall I tried to be as fair and balanced as I could be. I'm interested to know what everyone thinks...

Actually, I enjoyed your article/analysis. I have no problem with reducing Gracie's score do to, in part, inflated PCS. Don't mind Gao getting elevated and Agnes lowered. However, I am more in agreement with your initial impression of Wagner rather than your analysis in the article. Keep in mind, she got, I think, a 117, not 121, in GPF for what may have been a better skate. She got 62 PCS at GPF rather than 65 at Nats. Also keep in mind she was 8th, that is 8th! in TES in the FS. I have a problem with giving someome 2nd in the FS while only 8th in technical scores. Many have described the second half of her program as lackluster, cautious, etc. Some thought her loop should have been called UR, but it wasn't called. And to paraphrase from another poster . . . . How can you ask peoople to pay big money, tell them they are watching a sport, have them watch one beautiful program after another, then give the title to someone with two falls and a lackluster program? (Yes, I know there was also a SP.)
But I did enjoy your article and agree with much of it.

[Maximillian]

Some really great points and considering I've been burned out on skating (which really means ladies since I really only follow them) since 2011 when not coincidentally Mirai started her descent, I'm just really glad to have sort of an interest in discussing skating again.

I think whoever pointed to the 03-06 quad as precipitating the decline of U.S. ladies is right on. Jenny Kirk was a real up and comer in 2000-01, which I can attest to by all the Sasha-Jenny arguments I got into over at Adrian's old board (I was definitely in Camp Sasha), but by the time of Nationals 2002 it was pretty evident that she was not going to be a world beater---primarily because she had been a phenomenally consistent jumping bean who easily hit triple-triples and even trolled message boards bragging about a quad salchow but after puberty hit became much less consistent and struggled to hit 4-5 triple programs. The fact that she was the number 3 U.S. lady during that quad speaks to the lack of depth in the U.S. during that quad, McDonough had a brilliant skate at Nationals in 03 but as someone else mentioned pretty much gave up on the sport after that. The fact that an over the hill Amber Corwin finished fourth at Nationals during that quad also speaks volumes about the lack of depth.

Meissner coming along in 05 was considered a godsend for the future but anyone who saw the triple axel new the hype was a lot of smoke and mirrors and it was going to be tough for her to be a world beater but at least it was something. People forget that Christine Zukowski and Katy Taylor were right there, I actually really liked Zukowski and thought she had a Bobek-quality about her, but she disappeared after a promising 6th place finish at Nats. in 06. Kimmie was clearly growing and by the time of GPF in 07 where she had a pretty disastrous skate it became pretty apparent that the U.S. ladies were up for grabs. Nagasu and Zhang were seen as the new saviors but they were really trained for the 6.0 system and not IJS and to that I don't think anyone would've predicted how tough puberty would be on both of them.

I agree with whoever said that the rise of Asada and Kim was really unexpected and extraordinary but I also think that IJS really hurt the U.S. ladies more than other countries because for so long the U.S. has emphasized jump consistency over technique and carriage, position and extension over speed and difficulty. A skater like Nagasu would've thrived under 6.0 because the concern about the urs would've been minimal, but her positions and extension are superb and she is/was fairly consistent at "landing" her jumps. Essentially she was trained for a different system and was not the only one. The U.S. essentially has been forced to get a whole new value system for its ladies seemingly over night, what it once valued (and what skating in general seemed to value judging by the amazing results U.S. ladies have had historically) as being fundamental to being a top lady has been cast aside and the emphasis has been placed on technical competence and speed; whether or not this is good or bad objectively is up for debate, but clearly it has affected the popularity of the sport and severely impacted the once phenomenally prosperous U.S. ladies' program

[Sylvia]

Christina Gao tweeted her thanks today to the journalist who wrote a recent article in her hometown paper (Cincinnati Enquirer before Four Continents) - here's the link: http://news.cincinnati.com/article/2...-Olympic-dream

[IceAlisa]

Okay, so I'm cross posting this from Great Debate, but it is relevant to the thread so, yeah...

I decided to take a second look at nationals and judge the competition for myself. I know I'll get blasted for some of the scores I gave but overall I tried to be as fair and balanced as I could be. I'm interested to know what everyone thinks...

http://thenakedice.blogspot.com/2013...nationals.html

I think I'll go hide for a little bit...

Don't hide! This was good.

[fenway2]

McDonough had a brilliant skate at Nationals in 03 but as someone else mentioned pretty much gave up on the sport after that.

In the long. Her short was sort of a mess but I felt the judges held her up.

[cbd1235]

Okay, so I'm cross posting this from Great Debate, but it is relevant to the thread so, yeah...

I decided to take a second look at nationals and judge the competition for myself. I know I'll get blasted for some of the scores I gave but overall I tried to be as fair and balanced as I could be. I'm interested to know what everyone thinks...

http://thenakedice.blogspot.com/2013...nationals.html

I think I'll go hide for a little bit...

I read through your article in detail. Very well done!!!!! I really think you got everything right, I went into your post with the impression that it was going to be preposterous but I was very wrong.

Be the new US figure skating head judge? lol. ps. it's really fun to calculate your own version of the scores isn't it? Especially when you understand the system

[Sasha'sSpins]

Okay, so I'm cross posting this from Great Debate, but it is relevant to the thread so, yeah...

I decided to take a second look at nationals and judge the competition for myself. I know I'll get blasted for some of the scores I gave but overall I tried to be as fair and balanced as I could be. I'm interested to know what everyone thinks...

http://thenakedice.blogspot.com/2013...nationals.html

I think I'll go hide for a little bit...

No need to hide! I enjoyed reading your blog and I think your analysis is right on!

[Tak]

--------

I think the etymology of the JPN ladies is interesting and a lesson of things going RIGHT:

JPN singles program did not happen but was designed and totally re-built when Midori Ito failed to win a gold medal at Albertsville. The JSF decided it was not a good idea to depend on solitary "genius", but it was more prudent to field a cadre of World class skaters. It was modeled after Soviet Union style national selection process. Promising Novice level skaters are sent to the famous "Summer Skating Camp" where they are given special lessons and graded. Promising skaters are sent overseas for obtaining good programs and to attend competitions at an early age, so that they get used to competing in foreign environment. Junior level skater were given special byes to compete at senior Nationals. Shizuka and Honda were among the first to be incorporated into this system. Fumie who was not selected in her first year of eligibility, but was selected the next year. It did not bear fruit immediately, but by Dec. 2002 Nationals at Kyoto, one could virtually be certain that the system worked.
There was only one Senior Worlds medalist (Bronze:Fumie) and two Junior Worlds medalists (Silver: Yukari, Bronze:Miki) competing there. Collectively, in that one competition, there were 1 quad attempt (Miki), 6 triple Axel attempts (3 by Yukari, 1 Yoshie, 1 Mai, 1Mao). The competitors there will go on to win 3 Junior World Championship (Yukina, Miki, Mao), 5 Senior World Championship (Shizuka, 2Miki, 2Mao) and 1 Olympic Championship during the next decade.
It may look lucky that talented ladies skaters were coming up the ranks for JPN, during 2002-2012. IMHO, the system made sure that talented skaters stayed in skating, rather than other sports or be lost due to academic pursuits. It is debatable if the three best skaters were always sent to Worlds or Olympics. But the system was designed to create a cadre of World class skaters and in this regard, it was clearly successful.

[Triple Butz]

Okay, so I'm cross posting this from Great Debate, but it is relevant to the thread so, yeah...

I decided to take a second look at nationals and judge the competition for myself. I know I'll get blasted for some of the scores I gave but overall I tried to be as fair and balanced as I could be. I'm interested to know what everyone thinks...

http://thenakedice.blogspot.com/2013...nationals.html

I think I'll go hide for a little bit...

Considering your method, just going with the caller and not making your own decisions, I agree with your scores and results, too.
However, I think the calling was a bit generous to some skaters, especially Wagner and Siraj. I saw multiple >'s in their free skates.

[Jammers]

JPN singles program did not happen but was designed and totally re-built when Midori Ito failed to win a gold medal at Albertsville. The JSF decided it was not a good idea to depend on solitary "genius", but it was more prudent to field a cadre of World class skaters. It was modeled after Soviet Union style national selection process. Promising Novice level skaters are sent to the famous "Summer Skating Camp" where they are given special lessons and graded. Promising skaters are sent overseas for obtaining good programs and to attend competitions at an early age, so that they get used to competing in foreign environment. Junior level skater were given special byes to compete at senior Nationals. Shizuka and Honda were among the first to be incorporated into this system. Fumie who was not selected in her first year of eligibility, but was selected the next year. It did not bear fruit immediately, but by Dec. 2002 Nationals at Kyoto, one could virtually be certain that the system worked.
There was only one Senior Worlds medalist (Bronze:Fumie) and two Junior Worlds medalists (Silver: Yukari, Bronze:Miki) competing there. Collectively, in that one competition, there were 1 quad attempt (Miki), 6 triple Axel attempts (3 by Yukari, 1 Yoshie, 1 Mai, 1Mao). The competitors there will go on to win 3 Junior World Championship (Yukina, Miki, Mao), 5 Senior World Championship (Shizuka, 2Miki, 2Mao) and 1 Olympic Championship during the next decade.
It may look lucky that talented ladies skaters were coming up the ranks for JPN, during 2002-2012. IMHO, the system made sure that talented skaters stayed in skating, rather than other sports or be lost due to academic pursuits. It is debatable if the three best skaters were always sent to Worlds or Olympics. But the system was designed to create a cadre of World class skaters and in this regard, it was clearly successful.

I think after Sochi though Japan may hit a bit of a rough patch also. Ando and Suzuki will retire and so might Mao. That leave Murakami and who?

[MikiAndoFan#1]

I saw multiple >'s in their free skates.

Their jumps were upgraded?

[The Fly On The Wall]

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