U.S. Ladies [#7] Wagner's Rink Cycle

[FSfan107]

What do people think is the probability of Wagner having a 3-3 and/or 2a3t for worlds?

Not good. I'd be shocked if she competes them. Perhaps a 2axel-3toe.

[Coco]

With the positive GOE she gets for the 3f-tano 2t, using the 3f3t in the SP would be incredibly gutsy. It's a 2.8 point increase in base value, but with a likely 2 point swing the other way - at least - in GOE. I'm thinking she'll lose the +1 she normally gets in addition to a deduction for not being able to do the 3-3 cleanly. It hardly seems worth it unless there's a decent chance she can nail the 3-3.

[Cheylana]

I wonder why Ashley doesn't try for the 3T-3T in the SP -- is that not more attainable for her than 3F-3T?

[bek]

With the positive GOE she gets for the 3f-tano 2t, using the 3f3t in the SP would be incredibly gutsy. It's a 2.8 point increase in base value, but with a likely 2 point swing the other way - at least - in GOE. I'm thinking she'll lose the +1 she normally gets in addition to a deduction for not being able to do the 3-3 cleanly. It hardly seems worth it unless there's a decent chance she can nail the 3-3.

And she can't evaluate if its worth it because she's not going for it now.

[Coco]

I wonder why Ashley doesn't try for the 3T-3T in the SP -- is that not more attainable for her than 3F-3T?

I'm guessing because she doesn't want to repeat the 3toe in the LP, so that combo would be a bit of a dead end for her. She needs a 3-3 combo that starts with a flip or a loop, the two triples that she repeats in the lp. I'm assuming 3-3 combos that end with the loop are a no go, as getting credit for that is so rare.

[Cheylana]

But Ashley wouldn't have to repeat the triple toe if she goes for 2A-3T in the freeskate...she could still repeat the flip and loop.

[Autumn_girl]

I do think Kwan would have suffered a career-ending injury sooner had she gone for 3-3 all those years, so from a longevity point of view, it was not a bad strategy.

Interesting thought, but I don't agree. I don't think Kwan did much less 3-3s in her life than Tara/Sarah/Irina/whoever simply because to put it in the program when it counts you need to get the combo ready, and to get it ready you have to train it all the time. And I don't think Kwan knew exactly when she would need it, so most likely she had this combo ready for every important competition, doesn't matter if she put it in the program or not.
As for Wagner, she will most likely need the 3-3 for Worlds especially in the short, but I don't think she'll go for it.
And what happened with Gold? Was it jet lag or she just reached her peak for Nationals or it was all because of the nerves? She looked scared and out of shape

[fenway2]

Yet another thread gets derailed because one poster says something about Kwan and some of her fans can't let it go and jump in to defend her.

I understand that discussion is encouraged on a discussion board (duh ) but if every fan jumped to defend their favorite skater's defense every.single.time someone said something less than glowing about them, every thread would be derailed. Does Kwan really need to be defended EVERY time some fans hear something they don't like? It's getting old. And by the way, my favorite skater of all time is Michelle Kwan.

Back to the topic at hand. I expect to see Wagner attempt the 3toe-3toe at worlds, especially after this weekend's competition. I just hope that her lack of trying it in competition doesn't make her double foot it.

[fenway2]

I'm not reading too much into the non-world team qualifier always beating the world team member. The world team member probably scales back after nationals to start peaking again for worlds, where the non-qualifier keeps training full speed ahead for their final event of the year and they also have something more to prove.

[Cheylana]

Yet another thread gets derailed because one poster says something about Kwan and some of her fans can't let it go and jump in to defend her.

No derailing intended on my part...should have known better than to drop the K-bomb anyway... carry on

[Marco]

This is the fourth 4CC where the top US finisher is not on the world team. Hacker in 2008, Zhang in 2009, Nagasu in 2011 and now Gao. I just found that interesting, not saying it means anything.

Wagner won Nationals and then won 4CCs last year. The other years - well, those who don't have world assignments probably got to put all their eggs in the 4CCs basket whereas the others would still have to pace themselves.

[Marco]

What do people think is the probability of Wagner having a 3-3 and/or 2a3t for worlds?

Low. Last year it took Wagner three competitions (4CCs, Worlds, WTT) where she seriously attempted them for the combos to finally be clean. This season she has yet to attempt them and will be debuting them at Worlds (if she does).

[Marco]

Post-Tara, how many times did MK pull out the 3-3 at Nationals and regular GP events? I think almost never...
MK didn't think she needed it (and she was right), so it wasn't part of her normal repertoire. However, she needed it at 2000 and 2001 Worlds to hold off Irina, so she pulled it out. I think she also pulled it out at a GPF or two. I'm not knocking it; it was an excellent strategy for MK.

Kwan did the 3/3 at 99 Nationals and 99 Skate America - neither competition featured Lipinski or Slutskaya.

[bek]

I'm not reading too much into the non-world team qualifier always beating the world team member. The world team member probably scales back after nationals to start peaking again for worlds, where the non-qualifier keeps training full speed ahead for their final event of the year and they also have something more to prove.

Maybe but Gao here other than her short program skated around how she usually skates. And I think the real issue/anger is because Nationals was so questionably judged.

[RD]

But I still don't quite get it. What exactly are people asking for? Sounds like IIRC, some want to kick Gold off the team after this showing and replace her with Gao (just like, strangely enough, the call was to replace Czisny with...gasp...Gold!...last year). Or is it that folks are arguing for Gao to have been 2nd at Natls above Gold? Because even if Gao was 3rd the world team would STILL be Wagner/Gold...

Man...

[Loves_Shizuka]

^ Last year some suggested Grace would be the answer to many a problem. And now ...what?!

[FunnyBut]

But I still don't quite get it. What exactly are people asking for? Sounds like IIRC, some want to kick Gold off the team after this showing and replace her with Gao (just like, strangely enough, the call was to replace Czisny with...gasp...Gold!...last year). Or is it that folks are arguing for Gao to have been 2nd at Natls above Gold? Because even if Gao was 3rd the world team would STILL be Wagner/Gold...

Man...

To find out, I posted a post-4CC US Ladies POLL here:
http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/show...gner-to-Worlds

Seems the majority still want to send GRACIE , but a fair number want to send CHRISTINA.

Someone wants to send Agnes ...a US ladies hater, I suspect, who only want to see two of them at Sochi.

[RD]

Can't view that thread but doesn't seem too shocking I suppose.

[Jammers]

^ Last year some suggested Grace would be the answer to many a problem. And now ...what?!

So now we give up on Gracie because she isn't dominating like some people think she should? Her best years are after Sochi simple as that. The same goes for Osmond, Tuk and Adelina.

[RD]

Someone wants to send Agnes ...a US ladies hater, I suspect, who only want to see two of them at Sochi.

Or it might be simply a Zawadzki fan...not everyone on this board is American and/or cares about the 3 spots