U.S. Ladies [#7] Wagner's Rink Cycle

[Vagabond]

Let the , the , and the continue!

[Loves_Shizuka]

What do people think is the probability of Wagner having a 3-3 and/or 2a3t for worlds?

[darya_russian]

What do people think is the probability of Wagner having a 3-3 and/or 2a3t for worlds?

*Having Todd Eldredge at 2002 Olympics flashback*
Almost none. When was the last time she successfully did any of these combos in competition? Almost a year?
I doubt she suddenly goes out and does them cleanly, but I hope she does.
And seeing her recent problems with axel, I'd say 3-3 is more likely than 2a-3t.

[cbd1235]

Same could have been said about Mao's triple triples and triple axel until 2 days ago.

Don't count her chickens so early. And never underestimate an Ashley Wagner with something to prove.

[victoriaheidi]

Love this thread title!

All the recent treatment towards Ashley is, IMO, unwarranted. Her mistakes were the same two mistakes at both competitions. If she doesn't get those ironed out by Worlds, it's almost more of an issue with Phillip Mills failing to properly adjust the program.

[Sasha'sSpins]

What do people think is the probability of Wagner having a 3-3 and/or 2a3t for worlds?

Ashley has shown a new fire and dedication to her training these past couple of years. Barring Heaven-forbid injury I think Ashley will have that 3-3 and 2A-3T ready by Worlds. I'm crossing fingers for her.

[Coco]

Rank Country Name Score Competition
01. JPN MAO ASADA 205.45 4CC
02. ITA CAROLINA KOSTNER 194.71 EC
03. RUS ADELINA SOTNIKOVA 193.99 EC
04. USA ASHLEY WAGNER 190.63 TEB
05. JPN AKIKO SUZUKI 190.08 4CC
06. RUS ELIZAVETA TUKTAMYSHEVA 188.85 EC
07. JPN KANAKO MURAKAMI 181.03 4CC
08. FIN KIIRA KORPI 177.19 COR
11. USA MIRAI NAGASU 176.68 NHK
09. CAN KAETLYN OSMOND 176.45 SC
13. USA CHRISTINA GAO 176.28 4CC
10. USA GRACIE GOLD 175.03 COR
11. CHN ZIJUN LI 174.11 NHK
12. ITA VALENTINA MARCHEI 171.06 EC

Above is the season's best marks for likely worlds competitors. I left the other Americans on just so we can wail and gnash our teeth Kim's Senior B marks aren't on the list, so knock pretty much everyone down a place.

3 spots is only going to happen if Ash & Gracie skate beyonce at the super bowl level of lights out and others make mistakes.

ETA: it's important to note that a lot of these marks are very close, and rankings/placement can easily change as a result.

[Sasha'sSpins]

Rank Country Name Score Competition
01. JPN MAO ASADA 205.45 4CC
02. ITA CAROLINA KOSTNER 194.71 EC
03. RUS ADELINA SOTNIKOVA 193.99 EC
04. USA ASHLEY WAGNER 190.63 TEB
05. JPN AKIKO SUZUKI 190.08 4CC
06. RUS ELIZAVETA TUKTAMYSHEVA 188.85 EC
07. JPN KANAKO MURAKAMI 181.03 4CC
08. FIN KIIRA KORPI 177.19 COR
11. USA MIRAI NAGASU 176.68 NHK
09. CAN KAETLYN OSMOND 176.45 SC
13. USA CHRISTINA GAO 176.28 4CC
10. USA GRACIE GOLD 175.03 COR
11. CHN ZIJUN LI 174.11 NHK
12. ITA VALENTINA MARCHEI 171.06 EC

Above is the season's best marks for likely worlds competitors. I left the other Americans on just so we can wail and gnash our teeth Kim's Senior B marks aren't on the list, so knock pretty much everyone down a place.

3 spots is only going to happen if Ash & Gracie skate beyonce at the super bowl level of lights out and others make mistakes.

ETA: it's important to note that a lot of these marks are very close, and rankings/placement can easily change as a result.

I preferred Whitney in '94 to Beyonce in '13 but I see your point!

[olympic]

Point of note - If you take Ashley's 66 pt. SP from the GPF and her LP score of 127 + pts. from SA, she is around 194 pts.

[AndyWarhol]

Gracie looks like a cheer leader the way she positions her arms when she lands jumps. most off putting.

[RD]

What do people think is the probability of Wagner having a 3-3 and/or 2a3t for worlds?

Very low. But not impossible - crazier things have happened.

Lord knows she will need every single point out of those jumps if she hopes to be competitive here for a podium spot. And the better Wagner does, the more of a buffer Gold has to make a mistake or two and still be in the running.

[bek]

Same could have been said about Mao's triple triples and triple axel until 2 days ago.

Don't count her chickens so early. And never underestimate an Ashley Wagner with something to prove.

I'm not sure how you can compare the situation. Asada has done the triple axel plenty of times under pressure as well as that 3/3. As such she can take it and leave it out...

Wagner has very little history of doing those elements and so its hard to imagine they are going to somehow come out perfectly at Worlds.

It may very well work for her. But a part of me thinks those elements are tricky and you may want to get use to having them in your program-before the big games....Even Asada who has a history of doing these elements, isn't debuting them for the first time this season at worlds.

[danafan]

This is the fourth 4CC where the top US finisher is not on the world team. Hacker in 2008, Zhang in 2009, Nagasu in 2011 and now Gao. I just found that interesting, not saying it means anything.

[Cheylana]

*Having Todd Eldredge at 2002 Olympics flashback*
Almost none. When was the last time she successfully did any of these combos in competition? Almost a year?
I doubt she suddenly goes out and does them cleanly, but I hope she does.
And seeing her recent problems with axel, I'd say 3-3 is more likely than 2a-3t.

I think she competed 3-3 and 2A-3T at last year's 4CCs. I think they might have gotten < though.

Wagner seems to have enrolled in the Kwan School of "Only Compete the Triple-Triple When Absolutely Necessary (e.g. for Worlds)". I think she'll go for it at Worlds, whether she can get it done without the reps in competition (as Kwan was able to do) is another story.

Ashley has shown a new fire and dedication to her training these past couple of years. Barring Heaven-forbid injury I think Ashley will have that 3-3 and 2A-3T ready by Worlds. I'm crossing fingers for her.

Crossing my fingers too!

[Jarrett]

Michelle did her combo clean at multiple GP Finals, Grand Prix events, National Championship and World Championships. Has Ashley ever even done a clean one with +GOE? I don't think that is the same school. lol The more I think about it I think Ashley is going to have her worst skates at Worlds. Seeing Gracie at 4CC I don't think we will be getting 3 spots back anytime soon.

[bek]

Wagner seems to have enrolled in the Kwan School of "Only Compete the Triple-Triple When Absolutely Necessary (e.g. for Worlds)". I think she'll go for it at Worlds, whether she can get it done without the reps in competition (as Kwan was able to do) is another story.

Well I think a triple toe/triple toe is a heck of a lot easier than lets say a triple flip/triple..Plus as mentioned Michelle may not have done it every time but she did it plenty of times. .However even in Kwan's case, she never got those in when she probably really needed it at the Olympics. I just think there's something to be said for going out there and putting the content out there at the minor competitions and getting use to them. I think it would have helped Kwan, and I think it would have helped Irina at the Olympics too.

This is where I think Yu-na Kim is unappreciated. She may never had a 3loop and she may never had a 3axel. But Kim always went for that 3lutz/3toe and double axel/3toe every competition (only one time when she didn't) There were plenty of competitions where Yu-na could have left them off -and still won. But she went for them and you know what by the time the Olympics went around going for these things were likely second nature to her.

Same goes for Tara. She went for that 3loop/3loop every time. And so by the time the Olympics was around she was use to it. Even Asada didn't expect to somehow magically hit the triple axel/2toe for the first time at the Olympics.

And if it doesn't go well for you than you can come up with a plan b.

Now sure maybe magic can happen and you can have that combination at the big games. But I highly question if you have the combination if your not doing it somewhat regularly and I think its asking an awfully lot to do them when the pressure is the greatest.

[Cheylana]

Michelle did her combo clean at multiple GP Finals, Grand Prix events, National Championship and World Championships. Has Ashley ever even done a clean one with +GOE? I don't think that is the same school. lol

Post-Tara, how many times did MK pull out the 3-3 at Nationals and regular GP events? I think almost never...
MK didn't think she needed it (and she was right), so it wasn't part of her normal repertoire. However, she needed it at 2000 and 2001 Worlds to hold off Irina, so she pulled it out. I think she also pulled it out at a GPF or two. I'm not knocking it; it was an excellent strategy for MK.

I think Ashley is trying to go a similar route; but whether she can simply add it in as MK did remains to be seen. I don't think she is as strong a competitor, though she definitely is a go-getter. Well, I'm trying to be optimistic.

However even in Kwan's case, she never got those in when she probably really needed it at the Olympics. I just think there's something to be said for going out there and putting the content out there at the minor competitions and getting use to them. I think it would have helped Kwan, and I think it would have helped Irina at the Olympics too.

True, but on the other hand, not constantly training the 3-3 probably kept her body healthier longer and extended her career. Ironically, she didn't even need the 3-3 to win 2002 OGM, a clean six-triple performance would have held off Sarah (darn it!!).

[Proustable]

This is the fourth 4CC where the top US finisher is not on the world team. Hacker in 2008, Zhang in 2009, Nagasu in 2011 and now Gao. I just found that interesting, not saying it means anything.

Miner last year, if you want to make it five in a row.

[bek]

Post-Tara, how many times did MK pull out the 3-3 at Nationals and regular GP events? I think almost never...
MK didn't think she needed it (and she was right), so it wasn't part of her normal repertoire. However, she needed it at 2000 and 2001 Worlds to hold off Irina, so she pulled it out. I think she also pulled it out at a GPF or two. I'm not knocking it; it was an excellent strategy for MK.

I think Ashley is trying to go a similar route; but whether she can simply add it in as MK did remains to be seen. I don't think she is as strong a competitor, though she definitely is a go-getter. Well, I'm trying to be optimistic.

But the difference is that Kwan still had quite a lot of experience with that element. And also Kwan needed that 3/3 at lets say the 2002 Olympics, and then doubled it...That triple toe/triple toe might have given her the placement she needed to win the Olympics. So no I don't think leaving it out and only doing it when absolutely necessary was necessarily a good strategy for Kwan.

Perhaps if Kwan had put herself in the place where she went for that 3/3 every single time, she would have done it at the Olympics..Because going for it would have been second nature..Its also a different system now and in someways 3/3s are more important too.

[Cheylana]

But the difference is that Kwan still had quite a lot of experience with that element. And also Kwan needed that 3/3 at lets say the 2002 Olympics, and then doubled it...That triple toe/triple toe might have given her the placement she needed to win the Olympics. So no I don't think leaving it out and only doing it when absolutely necessary was necessarily a good strategy for Kwan.

Oh, I wound up editing my earlier post to respond to some of your thoughts. I don't think she needed the 3-3 to hold off Sarah, as it turned out...though she didn't know it at the time because she had to skate before Irina.

I do think Kwan would have suffered a career-ending injury sooner had she gone for 3-3 all those years, so from a longevity point of view, it was not a bad strategy.

ETA: I agree with you that it's not necessarily a good strategy for Ashley (assuming it is her strategy, which *I* think it is, but it's just a theory)