2012-2013 TOP 24 SEASON BEST SCORES UPDATED

[julieann]

the ISU is not giving out the scores, the judges are

I understand that-but if the ISU doesn't count the scores because they feel they are inflated; they shouldn't give them ISU points. They may as well give points for national results too or only give points for ISU Grand Prix, GPF, Euros, 4CC, Worlds and Olympics; which seem the most fair. Then you wouldn't have the world/seasons rankings so askew for teams who go to so many B competitions.

[l'etoile]

There's a reason why senior B competitions are titled "B." Half the number of judges of any championships and even GP and much smaller venue.

[kwanfan1818]

The ISU counts ISU and Olympic events, junior and senior, for the PB list. Senior B's aren't ISU events. They are sanctioned, in that skaters can compete in them without hurting their status, unless they skip GP, in which case they can't compete in the GP period, and, practically peaking, as the only way for many skaters to meet TES minimums. GP's are so skewed towards host country skaters.

[euterpe]

I understand that-but if the ISU doesn't count the scores because they feel they are inflated; they shouldn't give them ISU points. They may as well give points for national results too or only give points for ISU Grand Prix, GPF, Euros, 4CC, Worlds and Olympics; which seem the most fair. Then you wouldn't have the world/seasons rankings so askew for teams who go to so many B competitions.

Skaters and teams can go to as many B competitions as they wish, but on the ISU World Ranking list, only the top TWO results are counted for each year, and only the top four over a three-year period. So the maximum points accrued in a one-year period would be 500, and 1000 points over a 3-year period. Few non-GP skaters win two B events in one year or four over a three-year period.

But top skaters like Carolina Kostner do take advantage of the B comps for extra points. Even in years when she wasn't placing on the World podium, Carolina was often #1 on the list because of her two B wins per year. And yes, she often accrued 1000 points in B comps over a 3-year period.

Since B comps don't put skaters on the Seasons Best list, inflated B scores aren't really an issue.

[kwanfan1818]

To earn 1000 WS points over three years, a skater would have to win two in the current season and the last season, because the points from two seasons ago are reduced to 70% of their original value. That requires a lot of consistency, and athletes have to pay their way to Senior B's and get no prize money.

For Seniors, WS points affect GP SP starting order -- inverse of exact WS order -- and early internationals impact WS more for GP. For championships where skaters are grouped, WS impacts the SP draw group, but the only WS rankings that matter are the differences between draw groups. For example, for Worlds, the groups are:

1-12
13-15
everyone else with any WS points
those with no WS points

WS points make no difference between the skaters in 1-12 place: each has the same odds of skating first in the penultimate group as last in the final group. It can be a huge deal between #15 and #16, where #16 has much better odds of skating in the first two groups than the coveted first three of the third group, and a huge deal between having no ranking and the smallest ranking.

WS also impacts GP spots, but only a few skaters in Top 24 WS each year aren't also Top 24 SB, which guarantees a spot.

Gaining any WS points shows that the skater did well enough in international competition to place 1-5 with an international judging panel. Among skaters training in Europe, the relatively easy access to a Senior B to gain any points that are good for three seasons is a great investment, since it could mean the difference between skating first and 15th at Worlds. Not all 4C's skaters can make those trips, and 4C's functioned as the equivalent of international for many of the small Fed skaters.

Once minimum scores were introduced, it was impossible for the ISU to not accept Senior B scores toward minimums, even if they hadn't continue to limit GP fields. They had to create a way for more than one-two skaters from all but the strongest skaters to qualify for a championship. The trade-off with additional spots at 4C's is that AUS can send their 1-3 skaters to 4C's, and CRO can send their 2-7 skaters to Senior B's, which are inaccessible except to the wealthiest skaters training on other continents.

[Sylvia]

... athletes have to pay their way to Senior B's

Is this true for all Russian and Japanese skaters? U.S. skaters' and coaches' expenses are covered by USFS, and this seems to be a major reason why more U.S. skaters do not have the opportunity to compete at Senior B's. I believe Skate Canada covers their skaters' travel and accommodation expenses but not the coaches' - can anyone confirm?

[kwanfan1818]

Can anyone explain why the Junior scores are considered comparable and weigh in exactly the same when the required elements are different? Also, what happens to the skaters bumped out of the top 24 by Junior Worlds scores if those higher ranked Junior skaters are not moving up to Seniors?

It is actually more difficult for Junior singles overall to reach the FS minimums, due to the extra element. It is more difficult for many juniors to reach the SP minimum because the required jump might have a lower base than the jump they's have done if there wasn't a restriction -- ie, loop is required and they'd rather do te lutz -- or if the required jump is one they can't do as a triple and have to do as a double or can't do well as a triple and would have a higher total score on the jump (and leave a better impression) if they were able to choose one on their own-- ie a 3Lo instead of a 3F or a 3F instead of a 3Flutz.

As far as the difference in lengths of the FS programs, there's nothing to stop a senior from completing the overlapping elements in the same amount of time as in a junior program, although, practically speaking, most senior programs end with a spin or two. I read an explanation that there's a point in a skate where lactic acid build-up is acute -- somewhere around the 1.5 and 2 minute mark -- and was one of the reasons for the "slow" sections in programs of old -- and it may be that seniors have an advantage in that they have more time to recover and more chance to land thins after that recovery. Plus they have more time to cram in transitions, since a CH sequence doesn't take 30 seconds.

I haven't kept track of the differences in Pairs, but in Dance, the rhythms and the CD pattern are quite different. I don't know if the junior CD pattern has ever been harder than the senior CD pattern generally -- specifically different couples have different strengths and preferences. This would be the only apples and ranges comparison technically. Aside from that, why woudn't junior scores, harder to get for the juniors

PCS-wise, the question would be if the best juniors are getting big PCS lifts by being compared to juniors and/or because they're doing the big jump-laden content that tends to boost PCS regardless of the division skated.

Junior scores aren't dropped from the SB list, and seniors who are in 25th or lower in that list don't move up, nor do they move up when skaters retire.

[Ziggy]

I understand that-but if the ISU doesn't count the scores because they feel they are inflated; they shouldn't give them ISU points.

The reason they don't count the scores is not because they feel they are inflated. They don't count the scores because those aren't ISU events (which is stupid IMO, but what can you do).

IThey may as well give points for national results too or only give points for ISU Grand Prix, GPF, Euros, 4CC, Worlds and Olympics; which seem the most fair.

It wouldn't be far at all. It would be mean that if you're outside the system, you have absolutely no chance of improving your ranking. This is a big problem already and if you removed the possibility of skaters earning points at senior international events, you'd make the situation even worse.

And nobody is stopping federations from sending skaters to international events.

Is this true for all Russian and Japanese skaters? U.S. skaters' and coaches' expenses are covered by USFS, and this seems to be a major reason why more U.S. skaters do not have the opportunity to compete at Senior B's. I believe Skate Canada covers their skaters' travel and accommodation expenses but not the coaches' - can anyone confirm?

It all depends on the federation. Polish federation pays all the expenses but from what I heard, many federations don't.

Junior scores aren't dropped from the SB list, and seniors who are in 25th or lower in that list don't move up, nor do they move up when skaters retire.

And that is a real shame because sometimes it results in GP spots being left unfilled.

(Although that's much less of an issue now with less spots and GP minimum scores introduced)

[kwanfan1818]

Is this true for all Russian and Japanese skaters? U.S. skaters' and coaches' expenses are covered by USFS, and this seems to be a major reason why more U.S. skaters do not have the opportunity to compete at Senior B's. I believe Skate Canada covers their skaters' travel and accommodation expenses but not the coaches' - can anyone confirm?

I just did some Google searches to figure out how to create pivot tables in Excel, and I'm still new at this. I know I'm missing Chapman's (AUS) SP score from Crystal Skate -- the results .pdf is now missing the SP info (except the list of judges) -- and I'm sure I've got a few that are mis-categorized. These aren't the number of individual skaters: for example, all five of Australia's Dance entries were O'Brien/Merriman, but it still means trips either the skater or Federation is funding. I have no idea why Monaco is sorting to the top, either.

I counted the number of segments per discipline for each country at a Senior B. I didn't count Junior competition. Where there is a ".5" (except for Chapman), there was a withdrawal after the SP, but it still means someone showed up. If the Italian Federation is paying for all of those trips, 60 in total, or the German Federation, with 70 in total that a lot of money, and that's not counting any Juniors:

Sum of Qty Column Labels
Row Labels Dance Ladies Men Pairs Grand Total
MON 1 1
ARM 2 2
AUS 5 4 10.5 19.5
AUT 4 23 8 4 39
AZE 8 2 10
BEL 9 2 11
BLR 3 4 11 3 21
BRA 3 2 5
BUL 4 3 4 4 15
CAN 5 2 5 2 14
CHN 2 2
CRO 9 3 12
CZE 8 12 7 27
DEN 5 6 11
ESP 2 5 7 14
EST 4 9 3 16
FIN 7 21 12 40
FRA 1.5 5 6 3 15.5
GBR 9 10 18 37
GEO 2 2
GER 9 30 27 3.5 69.5
GRE 2 2
HKG 6 6 12
HUN 8.5 4 2 1 15.5
IND 2 2
IRL 3 3
ISL 1 1
ISR 4 1 5 3 13
ITA 11 27.5 17 4 59.5
JPN 7 5 9 21
KAZ 3 3
KOR 6 4 10
LAT 4 4
LTU 2 3 3 8
LUX 7 7
MEX 2 12.5 2.5 17
NED 6 2 8
NOR 13 13
PHI 4 8 12
POL 11 3 8.5 3 25.5
PRK 1 2 3
PUR 1 1
ROU 2 5 7
RSA 3 3
RUS 13 13 15 8.5 49.5
SIN 4 4
SLO 19 19
SRB 5 5
SUI 4 10 10 24
SVK 6 16 1 23
SWE 11 11 3 25
THA 5 1 6
TPE 13 3 16
TUR 4 3 2 9
UKR 9 6 8 2 25
URK 1 1
USA 7 4 12 8 31
UZB 1 5 6
Grand Total 161 383 279.5 54 877.5

[allezfred]

It is more difficult for many juniors to reach the SP minimum because the required jump might have a lower base than the jump they's have done if there wasn't a restriction -- ie, loop is required and they'd rather do te lutz -- or if the required jump is one they can't do as a triple and have to do as a double or can't do well as a triple and would have a higher total score on the jump (and leave a better impression) if they were able to choose one on their own-- ie a 3Lo instead of a 3F or a 3F instead of a 3Flutz.

On the other hand there is no automatic -3 GOE for doing a double jump or a double/double combination.

[kwanfan1818]

Yes, that may compensate somewhat for the other advantages Seniors have.

2Lz: 2.1 base, up to maximum of 3 (for +3 GOE)
2Lz with -3 GOE, 1.2

2Lz/2T: 3.4 base, up to a maximum of 4.9 (for +3 GOE)
2Lz/2T with -3 GOE: 1.9


As far as impacting the Top 24 PB list, practically speaking, it's not relevant for the singles currently there:

Ladies:
Radionova
Miller
Pogorilaya
Wang (in danger of falling off after Worlds from here down)
Miyahara
Cesario

Men (both will likely fall off after Worlds):
Chen
Farris

[pinky166]

Radinova, Cesario, Pogorilaya, Miyahara, and Farris all have the opportunity to raise their PB scores at JW, however.

[Sylvia]

As far as impacting the Top 24 PB list,

You mean SB (Seasons Best), right?

I expect Jason Brown to raise his SB score as long as he skates well at Junior Worlds -- he possibly could make it up to #24 or higher. He's currently #34 (198.32) and his ISU PB total score was 214.90 at last year's Junior Worlds.

Courtney Hicks is currently #31 (153.77 is her SB and PB total score) and is likely to move up if she skates well at Junior Worlds. Yasmin Siraj's ISU PB total is 161.75 (2010 JGP in Sheffield, England, but it was a particularly high-scoring event that season, as I recall): http://www.isuresults.com/bios/isufs00012615.htm

[kwanfan1818]

Yes, SB

I think there are Seniors at the cusp or who are within striking distance of the Top 24 SB list who have more potential upside at Worlds, especially if they hit their SP, resulting in the delayed PCS bumps for the FS. That plus the extra element gives the advantage to the Seniors who deliver SP's without which all but the best skaters won't make the SB for next year's GP selections, if theyh're not already there.

I hope Brown can get back to scoring that high.

[pinky166]

Farris could potentially stay in the top 24 even with his current SB from Lake Placid, but if he skates like he did at Nationals at JW, I'd expect he'd be able to put up a score a good bit higher, even with it being a junior international event, that would put him higher up the list. But again he's at 22 now and looking at the list, unless Denis Ten and Tomas Verner skate much better than they have all season at Worlds, or someone like Adam Rippon gets named to WTT and puts up a higher number there, or Gatchinski and/or Voronov goes to Worlds instead of Kovtun (seems unlikely) and scores over 218, then even if Josh is not at his best at JW he might stay on the list.

[misskarne]

Farris's PB is a 221.97 from JW last year, and he wasn't totally clean there, nor did he have/attempt the quad, so he's definitely capable of putting a 222 down. Brown, as discussed, has a PB of 214; if he can nail the triple Axel at least twice out of the three attempts he'll have at JW and skate clean I expect he could raise that to 220 at least. So they may not fall off.

What's the current score for 24th?

[kwanfan1818]

#24, Majorov is at 211.88. Farris is #22 at 218.69 and Chen is #21 at 222.00.

When I first looked at it, I thought Majorov was #25, and he is capable of gaining another six points to overtake the person in front of him (Voronov, with 217.21), but that's moot, since he's already in the Top 24, with chances to go higher, having made a strong impression at Euros.

Ten, Rogozine, and Ge are long-shots to overtake Majorov and Voronov, so, you're right, unless Rippon (210.47) is appointed to WTT, and he'd have to skate the way he's capable of to catch up.

Ladies are far less certain, because there's a cluster around the cut-off:
17 168.41 Hannah MILLER USA ISU Junior Grand Prix Final 2012/13 08.12.2012
18 167.40 Anna POGORILAYA RUS ISU Junior Grand Prix Final 2012/13 08.12.2012
19 166.61 Agnes ZAWADZKI USA ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 10.11.2012
20 162.65 Angela WANG USA ISU JGP Croatia Cup 2012 06.10.2012
21 161.65 Satoko MIYAHARA JPN ISU JGP Lake Placid 2012 01.09.2012
22 160.52 Elene GEDEVANISHVILI GEO ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012
23 157.72 Haruka IMAI JPN ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2012 21.10.2012
23 157.72 Samantha CESARIO USA ISU JGP Austria 2012 15.09.2012
24 157.58 Mae Berenice MEITE FRA ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2012 17.11.2012

-->> Current cut-off

25 157.27 Alena LEONOVA RUS ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 10.11.2012
26 156.52 Ksenia MAKAROVA RUS ISU GP NHK Trophy 2012 24.11.2012
27 156.33 Leah KEISER USA ISU JGP Bosphorus 2012 21.09.2012
28 155.72 Viktoria HELGESSON SWE European Championships 2013 26.01.2013
29 155.08 Amelie LACOSTE CAN ISU Four Continents Championships 2013 10.02.2013
30 154.41 Nikol GOSVIANI RUS European Championships 2013 26.01.2013
31 153.77 Courtney HICKS USA ISU JGP Lake Placid 2012 01.09.2012
32 153.32 Polina KOROBEYNIKOVA RUS ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 10.11.2012
33 152.29 Sonia LAFUENTE ESP European Championships 2013 26.01.2013

Wang, as an alternate, is vulnerable, less than five points above the current cut-off. Meite needs less than a point to bump down Imai and Cesario, and is within a three points of Gedevanishvili and four points of Miyahara. Viktoria Helgesson is within a few points, and I suspect having just missed Top 10 at Worlds last year, she'll aim for it to earn a second spot for Sochi, which would give her sister a shot and give her some safety, if the Olsson continues to improve. Meite has the same incentive, if Silete is healthy next near. Either Leonova or Gosviani could do it, and Lafuente has an outside shot.

[Sasha'sSpins]

It is interesting that Mirai is the number 2 U.S. woman on that list-but likely like last year she'll only get one GP spot. And especially after whatever goes down at Worlds.

[kwanfan1818]

Maybe, but it's more likely that she'll be invited to a second, like almost Top 24 skater on the SB list.

[pinky166]

Majarov's 211+ at Euros was an UNUSUALLY HIGH score from him, honestly, he rarely skates that well, I'd be surprised if he moves up the list after Worlds. Gatchinski and Vornov are both capable of scoring well above their current SB scores, but it's unlikely either will even be at Worlds as Kovtun is the likely entry and is already higher up the list. Rogozine and Ge were pretty much perfect at 4CCs to get those scores of just over 200, I don't think either will make the cut. Ten is capable of 230+ but obviously he is still hampered by his injury if 4CCs was any indication, and he just tends to struggle in competition as of late, so I would guess he does not get a new SB at Worlds. As for WTT idk if Rippon would even be sent, especially where Dornbush did well at 4CC, Aaron needs the ranking points, and if someone like Farris were to win JW they might give him a shot too. But maybe USFS would give Rippon the spot just to help his chances for GP assignments next season. Farris I think is likely to stay in the top 24 with his current number, so getting a new SB at JW is not so imperative for him as it is for Brown, but certainly if he skates well, a score as high as in the 230s is possible, for Brown maybe not quite so high, but certainly high enough to make the top 24 you would think.

For the ladies I think Wang should be fine, most of the ladies below her won't be at Worlds, so 5 people would need to pass her to get bumped off, Gosviani/Leonova (or whoever the 3rd Russian at Worlds will be - but it will only be one) are capable but it's not a sure thing, Helgesson maybe could but she hasn't been skating so well recently, Kexin Zhang could but her PCS are going to make it hard and she's also just off the injury, I don't think Lafuente can score that high with her content, Meite could but she'd need to skate pretty much clean at Worlds to do that which is a big ask, so realistically that leaves Hicks and Cesario. So even if the 3rd Russian entrant, Hicks, and Cesario were to overtake Wang's score, Wang would still make the cut, and actually one more person could overtake her then still. Cesario will likely need a SB over 160 at JW to stay in the top 24 but she's usually pretty consistent so I think there's good odds she can do it.