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  1. #1
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    Nagasu- can she win or medal at the Olympics if she skates her best

    I know some might laugh at this but I really think if she skates her best Mirai Nagasu could win the Olympics in 2014 or atleast medal. Her spins and spirals are better than Yu Na Kim and Caroline Kostner. Well maybe not spirals for Kostner, but spins for sure. She has all the jumps when she is at her best. Her artistry is also quite good. It is just a matter of putting it all together. It saddens me to see her beneath far less talented skaters like Wagner and Gold. Gold is really talented for the future but right now is all jumps. Wagner has nothing special about her skating. At the very least I want to see her back as U.S #1 where she belongs and top 5 in the World.

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    With her 2011 Four Continents performance Nagasu would have won gold at the 2011 Worlds. Ando did not skate as well at Worlds as she did at Four Continents, neither did Asada, and Kim didnt skate good at all at Worlds. With those performances, or her 2010 Olympic ones, Nagasu would have also won the 2010 Worlds, won silver at the 2012 Worlds, and won silver at the 2013 Worlds.

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    Well, if Mirai skates her best, she could medal or even win the Olympic next year

    ... AND all of others have to BOMB for that happen

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    She needs to make it to Olympics first.

    But Mirai at her best is still just off the podium around 4th or 5th again.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Skater91 View Post
    She needs to make it to Olympics first.

    But Mirai at her best is still just off the podium around 4th or 5th again.
    It would depend how everyone else skated. However in a totally clean Olympics (which will never happen) the #3 U.S skater will probably finish 12th or 13th behind Kim, Kostner, Asada, Gold, Wagner, Suzuki, 2 Russian girls, Murakami, Osmond, and possibly Li and/or Korpi, in roughly exactly that order too. Maybe Nagasu with how she can really shine could do better than that but only with no URs, truly sparkling out there, and a solid 3-3.

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    Nagasu is a better spinner than Kim, but Kim is a much better jumper than Nagasu, with better skating skills and presentation. There is pretty much no chance she would beat a well skated program by Kim. She would likely not challenge a decent Kostner either, the gap in PCS is too wide. I suppose if Asada had a bad day or Kostner crumbled, Nagasu could medal.

    I still would have given the Bronze to Nagasu in Vancouver, I know that is not a popular opinion. Joannie is a better skater, but Nagasu did so much more in terms of jumps and spins, plus Nagasu skater error free and lights out, with 5 different triples (well, one of them was a flutz), and a 3-3.

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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    It would depend how everyone else skated. However in a totally clean Olympics (which will never happen) the #3 U.S skater will probably finish 12th or 13th behind Kim, Kostner, Asada, Gold, Wagner, Suzuki, 2 Russian girls, Murakami, Osmond, and possibly Li and/or Korpi, in roughly exactly that order too. Maybe Nagasu with how she can really shine could do better than that but only with no URs, truly sparkling out there, and a solid 3-3.
    Well, the premise was "if she skates her best" which means no URs, none of those silly mistakes she seems prone to make on spins, and a full arsenal of triples. If she could do all that, I would place her above any other American, really, anybody but a similarly clean Kim, Kostner and Asada. When Mirai is on, she skates with a command, speed and pizzazz that none of the remaining skaters listed can match.

    Sadly, I fear most of those verbs should be in the past tense. I don't know if she will ever reach that level again.

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    The problem is you have to continue to improve to stay relevant and Mirai not only didn't improve after 2010 but she's regressed. She's not as fast and her spins are not nearly as good as they were back then. Add the fact that you now have to have a 3-3 to be competitive and Mira doesn't have a solid 3-3 she needs to make big improvements this season just to be competitive in the US.

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    I think 'regression' is the key. Mirai has not been amongst the best in the past quadrennial to set herself up for a medal at Sochi. Thus, it will take some serious attention grabbing via technical fireworks throughout the Fall to get back where she was in 2010 - speed, sparkle, and solid jumps with a 3-3 in both the SP and LP. Additionally, she will have to work hard to get on the Olympic / Worlds team at nationals. That means beating any 4 of Wagner, Gold, Czisny, Gao Zawadzki and I'm sure there will be a newbie in there somewhere, perhaps Hicks.

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    . Additionally, she will have to work hard to get on the Olympic / Worlds team at nationals. That means beating any 4 of Wagner, Gold, Czisny, Gao Zawadzki and I'm sure there will be a newbie in there somewhere, perhaps Hicks.
    The US gets 3 ladies. I have my doubts that Czisny will be a factor next year and Gao has been kind of a mess the lst few years. If Nagasu is skating well (which I also have my doubts about), it would likely come down to her and Zawadski for the third spot. If it's close, I don't think US judges would be inclined to send a young newbie skater to the Olympics who has not been to Worlds, unless she really impresses at her GP events. Right now (with one TDB at Skate America) the only other US lady with a senior GP assignment is Zhang (who I guess no one sees as a factor).

    Gao is an interesting case. Young as she is, she has already finished 5th at US Nationals for 4 consecutive years. Her only senior international performances of any note came last year - a 2nd place at Skate America and 4th at 4CC (5th in the FS). So, maybe she is gaining some consistency, or maybe she, Zhang & Nagasu can all get together and commiserate about the puberty monster and how good they were in their early teens.
    Last edited by Susan M; 07-18-2013 at 02:34 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Susan M View Post
    I have my doubts that Czisny will be a factor next year
    My opinion is that if Czisny is healthy and skating remotely well, they are going to give her the 3rd spot; she's been the USFS darling for too long, and it is a wonderful recovery story.

    I just don't know if she'll be healthy.


    I don't think it is likely Nagasu takes the spot. Which makes me sad. She was so promising in the last Olympics.

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    If Mirai has put in the work to get between the TES base of Wagner and Gold, then I think the competition for the 3rd spot will be between her and Zawadzki, with Zawadzki having the advantage, although Mirai can get better PCS from International judges. Cziny is a lovely skater and Gao is a consistent skater recently, but neither have capability any better than 6th place TES base.

    ... Mirai, on the international scene, really has the dark horse advantage. When you watch her skate, you would think she has won more.
    Last edited by bardtoob; 07-18-2013 at 03:07 PM.

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    I actually agree with the poster who said if Czisny is in good shape and skates reasonably well they will go with her. I am not sure how likely that is, but she has nothing to lose this year so it could happen. If she isnt they will go with Zawadzki (who I dont even consider possibly skating reasonably well in the LP, I mean with her usual 3 or 4 triple performance). Unless one of Nagasu or Gao is lights out and/or Zawadzki skates even worse than usual.

    That is not what I want to believe. Ultimately I want it to go to whomever skates best at Nationals, but in general I would rather see Gao or Nagasu at the Olympics than past her best before date Czisny or Splatadzki.

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    She can be on the podium if.....

    1.she goes GPF and get gold or silver medal at USnational next season so that judges give her more PCS
    2.she skates cleanly like 2010OG or 2011FC
    3.not everyone of Kim or Kostner or Asada skates cleanly

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    She doesnt have the momentum. Unless she places at the final, wins nationals and podium at 4CC there is no way she is coming close to olympic podium.

    We all know that she has the capability to do a program with no falls, but those jumps have to be clean. Without the momentum she will not get the PCS and without clean jumps she wont get TES.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Susan M View Post
    When Mirai is on, she skates with a command, speed and pizzazz that none of the remaining skaters listed can match.
    Mirai hasn't been "on" in a long, long time. For the past two years, she's been skating as if she were on autopilot.

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    I don't think so, her training situation and body have changed a lot since 2010 Olympics and even 2011 4CC when she was skating really well, and the field is deeper now than it was when she was 4th in 2010, so I just don't see it happening. Her jumps aren't the best quality and she's either lost speed or isn't using it to the best of her ability in her programs which is why, coupled with her PCS not being that high, I don't think she could do it, even though her spins are fab.

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  20. #20
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    So much of skating is about reputation and momentum and right now Mirai has neither. She has never reached the GPF and hasn't been on the podium at nationals since 2011 (3rd).

    Momentum and rep aside, I just don't think she's at the level she was back in 2010. I agree with FunnyBut in regards to Vancouver. I'm glad Joannie got the medal b/c of her situation...but Mirai outskated her in that competition. After Vancouver the door was wide open for Mirai to waltz her way to the top of the sport but she never did. Not even close. She showed two flashes of brilliance in that next season (SP at nationals, FS at 4CC) but that was it. She's had decent performances since then but none have come close to capturing the magic she had back then.

    Mirai is in the running for that 3rd spot to Sochi but I see her at the bottom of the selection pool right now. I think Agnes, Christina and Alissa all have a better shot at getting that spot right now. Agnes is the US bronze medalist for the last two years (despite her mediocre skating everywhere else), Christina is on the upswing after last season, and if Alissa is semi-decent I feel like the judges will boost her to give her that 3rd spot. The only way Mirai will leapfrog all of them is to kick ass in her GP events and light up nationals like she did back in 2010 minus the URs. She'd have to leave zero doubt in the judges' minds that she's the one for that spot.

    At her best, I do think Mirai would be a top 5 finisher in Sochi this year...but it's been so long I just don't see it happening. I really hope she proves me wrong. I'm always cheering for that girl...I've just given up on expecting greatness from her.

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