2018

[Cachoo]

I was looking at the "From Russia" posts/vids and was saw a Russian girl doing triple/triple/triples. I was impressed. My question is this:

What trends do you see in figure skating in terms of each discipline for 2018? I am not looking for specific skaters but which country might dominate in a particular discipline. Or is it too soon to tell?

[TheIronLady]

I think Korea will have at least one skater in the top six.

[sk9tingfan]

I was looking at the "From Russia" posts/vids and was saw a Russian girl doing triple/triple/triples. I was impressed. ?

Can you say growth plate injuries??? Let's amend that with "Future Evgeni Plushenko Back" syndrome

[victoriaheidi]

If a girl wanted to do a 3-3-3, wouldn't it potentially wind up a SEQ instead of a combo?

I mean, if you have the tech ability to do a 3-3-3, you obviously have the ability to do a 3-3. And there's no way I can think of to have a 3-3 and a 3-3-3 in the same program without one being a SEQ.

/OT...back to the question. I see Russia maintaining its ladies' dominance through 2018 but losing it sometime before 2022. Canada will fall into a slump in all disciplines. Japan and the US will maintain their strong traditions in men's and dance, respectively.

[sk9tingfan]

BTW, Gracie Gold can do a 3-3-3

Example #1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjWrN5LHG9A

Example #2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrnyABvzdiM

[blue_idealist]

Wouldn't a 3-3-3 be scored in the same way as Plushenko's 4-3-2s that he did around 2006? They counted as combos..
If both a 3-3 and 3-3-3 wouldn't count as combos, the girls should just skip the 3-3s and do the 3-3-3s if possible.

[Aussie Willy]

If a girl wanted to do a 3-3-3, wouldn't it potentially wind up a SEQ instead of a combo?

Depends what jumps you did. The second and third jumps have to come off the landing edge of the preceding jump for it to be a combo. The only ones you can do which would make it a combo are the loop and toe loop.

[Proustable]

Ladies: Russia and the USA, with Canada, China, and S. Korea sneaking in here and there. And France.

Men: USA, China, Japan, Russia

Dance: Russia, USA, Canada maybe, France

Pairs: Russia and Canada

[JJS5056]

A lady could certainly include a 3-3-3 in her LP and have it count as a combo- I'm not sure what scenario you are envisioning that it would be credited as a SEQ?

The benefit of doing a 3-3-3, instead of a 3-3, would be that it would open up two additional jumping passes, instead of one. She could use that extra pass for a triple axel, if part of her arsenal, or something like a Tano 2z, which may not seem to add much, but we've seen medals decided by less.

It's also possible to have a 3-3-3, 3-3 and 3-3 in the same program.

3z-3t-3t
3f-3l
3s-3l
2a
2a
2a
2z

Would be just fine: 7 triples, toe and loop repeated. 2a is limited to 3 per program, correct? Otherwise, replace with a 2f or whatever you so desire.

[Proustable]

You can only have two 2As now.

[victoriaheidi]

I thought that the repeated jump had to be done in a combo once and individually once, but the same triple in two combos makes one a sequence? Or is it the same triple done out of a combo twice makes it a sequence?

[misskarne]

2018:

Bionic Plushenko comes back to win gold in the mens.

[Sylvia]

Skaters are allowed to do, for example, 3Lz+2T twice in the same long program and it counts as 2 combinations.

ETA: http://www.usfsa.org/content/First%20Aid%20Singles.pdf

In a jump combination the landing foot of a jump is the take off foot of the next jump. A three turn on one foot between the jumps without touching the ice with the free foot (or even with a touch, but no weight transfer) keeps the element in the frame of this definition allowing still to call it a combination (with an error).
If the jumps are connected with a non-listed jump, the element is called as a jump sequence. However half-loop (Euler) (landing backwards) when used in combinations/sequences is considered as a listed jump with the Value of a single Loop. When executed separately, half-loop stays as unlisted jump.
If the first jump of a two-jump-combination fails to be successful and turns out as a “non-listed jump”, the unit will still be considered as a jump combination.

A jump sequence may consist of any number of jumps of any number of revolutions that may be linked by non-listed jumps and/or hops immediately following each other while maintaining the jump rhythm (knee); there can be no turns/steps (not even as an entry into a jump), crossovers or stroking during the sequence (Turns are three turns, twizzles, brackets, loops, counters, rockers. Steps are toe steps, chasses, mohawks, choctaws, curves with change of edge, cross-rolls).
A jump sequence, consisting of only one listed jump together with other non-listed jumps is not considered a jump sequence, but will count as a solo jump.

[JJS5056]

Thanks, Proustable. I couldn't remember if it was 2 or 3.

VH, your second scenario is correct. If a skater plans a 3z and 3z+2t in a program, for instance, but ends up falling on the second lutz and misses the 2t, it will be marked as +SEQ and reduced accordingly. In the early years of COP, it would be marked as a combination and receive full credit, aside from the loss of points from the potential second jump.

There's no rule against doing a jump in two different combinations, though; Yu-Na Kim performed a 2a+3t and 3z+3t in her Olympic free skate. Was it Sotnikova who was doing two 2a+3t in her free skates last year? Not the most inspiring choice compositionally, but well within the rules.

[maatTheViking]

I predict that at least 2 pairs team will attempt or have planned either a throw 3a or a throw quad.

[victoriaheidi]

Thanks, everyone. I knew something in there was a rule!

[Cachoo]

Thank you: I'm a little surprised that there isn't a young Chinese pairs team on the rise. About the 3/3/3's---if this is a sure precursor to back injury I'd rather not see it in competition. I'm not a Plushy fan but I felt badly for him--that determined look that was always with him was not there in the short. His eyes looked clouded over in pain.

[essence_of_soy]

I'm thinking that the short program elements will delete the double axel and replace it with a required triple jump with an edge or pick take off.

Further to that, the combination may have the option of a double and a triple jump, two triple jumps, a quadruple and a double or triple jump, or a THREE jump combination of at least a triple jump and two double jumps.

[johndockley92]

After doing the math here's what I came up with.

A program with the following:

2A
2lz
Chsq
Stsq4
3 level 4 spins ---- Halfway point
2A
3lz+3t+3l
3f+3l
3lz + 2l
3s

Even with 5 jumps (the hardest ones too) in the second half, the base technical is only 6 points higher than what Gracie put out at Nationals (66.49 compared to 60.31, using her as a base point because she had the highest base technical at nationals)

Another option would be to do

2a
2lz
spins, spirals, footwork, halfway point
3f 3l
3lz 1l 3s
3lz 3t
3f
2A

That equals out to a 65.16 base technical, worth a point less than the first option. The solo flip and the sal in the three jump can easily be exchanged for each other at no cost (it's actually worth .16 more to put the flip in the combo instead). If a jumper could only do a toe combination (which is quite realistic, most cannot do both triple combos, although some can), then you can change out the flip loop to a loop toe for a -1.32 cost.

A third thing to do, would be 3 triple triple combinations,

2A
2lz
3 spins, ch sq, stsq
3lz 3t
3f 3l
3lz 3l 2l
3s
2A

Such program would total 66.48 base technical. Pretty much the same as the first program.

Any skater to do either of these layouts would obviously have to be well trained so they could do such difficult jumps past the half way point. Even with poor components, such a program; skated cleanly should put one on the podium at worlds. Gracie earned nearly 11 points in GOE at Nationals, if someone were to do a 66 point technical program and earn 77 total technical points, she would earn a higher technical score than 7th at worlds in MEN last year. Such score would be 14 points higher than the winning technical score in ladies last year !


(Note, whoops accidentally posted this somewhere else first)

[Rock2]

I see Russia maintaining its ladies' dominance through 2018 but losing it sometime before 2022. Canada will fall into a slump in all disciplines. Japan and the US will maintain their strong traditions in men's and dance, respectively.

Well first the Russian ladies will need to ATTAIN dominance before they MAINTAIN it. Oh yeah they got depth out the wazoo just like US ladies based on the kick butt Nats we just saw. Until they start winning world champs...

I think we're going to see an awesome balance in quality ladies in the next cycle. North America is going to rise up again to match the deep Russian and Asian entries. Ladies are going to be super exciting.

I'm actually envisioning one possible scenario where YuNa-Mao becomes Gracie-Kaetlyn. The Blonde Ice Maiden vs the Pony-Tailed aw-shucks Canadian. The ISU would pee themselves over a poster like this for one world champ after another. These girls are beautiful! Gracie is holding all the cards. If she gets programs that aren't so God-awfully sanitized and learns to control her nerves, no one will touch her. She is what the ISU hoped Kiira Korpi would have become.

So, no, Canada will not fall into a slump. We're about to enter the best ladies era we've ever had and by next year Kaetlyn will be the best lady we've ever had. Dance is seriously deep and there's a good chance we keep all of our pairs after Sochi. I don't expect Patrick to win Sochi so he may stick around. Lots of great talent coming up, too (Firus, Gordon, Nam, Sadovsky). There won't be any slumps.

As for elements, I'm seeing 3-4 different quads appearing for the guys. About five ladies will add a 3A. Pairs will be attempting throw 3A and maybe quad but I'm not convinced. Overall some minor upgrades.
I'm looking for ISU to add level 5 in dance. All top teams hit level 4s now so winners almost totally determined by subjective PCS.