I like Yuna, and by no means I'm saying Mao or Caro are a sure bet for worlds in London, but how most of Yunas fans are still so sure she'll win if everyone is clean is quite a suprise to me. By now, my money would be on her too, but that's because I think she's the most likely one to be clean. If all these three woman are spot on, it's going to be very close.Originally Posted by Shaia
For this "quality over quantity" argument: quality in what?
Spins? No. Steps? No. Choreography? No. Interpretation? No.
So I guess it's about the jumps here.
What Yuna really has over Mao is the quality of the toe-jumps, mainly the amazing flow-out she has out of them added to the great ice coverage. That's true. But it's not as if Mao's jumps didn't have nice qualities to them too. Additionally, Yunas Salchow isn't as technically perfect as her toe-jumps, and since Mao has reworked her technique, her Salchow can compare. She's not as consistent yet (that's why I'd give that jump to Yuna by now), but the quality is there when she lands it. For the Axel, Mao's 2A is at least on the same level as Yuna's - arguably a tiny bit better, but not much anyway.
So Yuna has better quality in three jumps, meaning in five of her jumping passes out of 10 overall (two in the SP, three in the LP). That is suppossed to be enough to cancel out two additional triples Mao does? Especially if one of them is a 3A. And Yuna doesn't have the Loop.
Anyway, at least for the LP, I think if everyone was clean, the winner would be Caro (although Mao is my favorite, I'd love for Caro to win since so many people are starting the Yuna vs. Mao battle again ).
Caro seems to have 7 triples planned, and her jumping quality is on Yunas level - but she has the Loop. So she'd beat Yuna in the jumps by having a higher BV and equal GOE. Yuan is a slightly better spinner, but Caro has better steps and spirals. Most of all, Caro should have the highest PCS. Best SS, good choreo, very musicial and a great feel for the music. It's just that Caro would be behind in the SP at this point.
Sorry to say this but all I see from (seemingly) Yuna fans' posts are just saying Yuna is better no matter what, even insulting the posters who actually gave thought-out opinions. What about giving reasonable analysis to support your arguments?
I think that the two largest advantages that Yuna Kim has over her competitors is the SP and also her consistency. In the SP, she will do a 3Z-3T with +GOE. Mao can counter that with her 3A but that is not as guaranteed whereas YK is almost certain. Carolina has to do a 3F-3T combination to be able to not be several points behind going into the LP.. which is also a big if. Sure, she can get level 4 footwork with +GOE but that will not cover her technical deficiencies. In the LP, who has the chance of being clean? I would say Mao has a huge chance of being competitive with her planned routine but she has yet to hit. We can argue about who has the best PCS, spins, and footwork but at the end of the day its the jumps that will seperate all of the. And its not the salchow either, but the huge big ticket jumps. It will not matter if Kostner's salchow is the best, if she is not hitting the 3-3s and all the jumps for that matter. So a big advantage to Yuna Kim.
All these ladies have good spins and great footwork. They are all planning level 4s and will probably get them (maybe a couple of 3s throughout the competition). They will get great GOE on all non-jump elements, and good GoE on most any jump clealy landed and w/o edge call. They will all get great PCS, way above anyoe else. How good GoEs ad PCS for each of them is not something anyone can predict, it is not a matter for analysis - it will come down to the judges assigned and their personal prefereces. I think we can afely assume that the points garnered from PCS and non-jump elemets will be pretty much the same for all three, unless one of them has a meltdown.
It will come down to the jumps - what they plan, what they can deliver. Starting point - planned content and BV.
For the SP Asada's planned BV is 34.5, Kim's - 32 and Kostner (with 3T-3T) - 30. Kostner's is the wekest - but only 2 pts from Kim, so not such a huge difference she cannot recover from. If Mao lands the 3A she will have a big advantage, but again, nothing Kim cannot make up.
The LP layout is a guess, but assume Asada plans the same content as 4CC, Kim the same as NRW (6 triples and 2 2As is her ususal) and Kostner is probably planning for 7 triples, w/2 3Ts and 2 3Ss. Going from there you have a BV of almost 69 pts for Asada, 59 for Kostner and 58 for Kim. Is Mao lands everything she plans she will win, no matter what the others may do, but how likely is she to deliver everything? Not very. In fact, she is the most likely to make mistakes and underrotate or double while Kostner will may fall on a fully-rotated jump - a lesser evil under IJS. Kim is the most dependable of the three, but that is based on an 18-months old record, not recent.
I would not be laying any money (real or imagined) on the outcome, but I will be mightily surprised if anyone other than these three is on the podium.
It will be difficult to defeat Kim, and it's probably depends on her mistakes, but it's not as if it hasn't happened before. 2010 and 2011 Worlds for example. Hypotheticals where everyone skates perfectly is fun, but when was the last time all of the top contenders skated lights-out with minimal mistakes?
Mao will get lower GOEs on even her clean jumps than Kim and Kostner will, no question, but GOE has been reduced so it wont be as big a factor as before. I didnt realize she had that huge an edge in BV though, wow that is a major difference.
I really don't understand Kostner's appeal. YuNa and Mao seem in a whole other class. Kostner has never skated performance that has impressed me. I know her jumps can be great when she is on, and she can obvisously rack up COP points, but the rest of her performance is usually eh for me. Never saw a performance of hers that inspiried me, certainly never saw one I'd watch twice.
BTW - I know we disagree, but I appreciate you taking your time to explain your opinions and really think it through so nicely
Anyway, I don't htink it's a foregone conclusion. Yu-Na is usually pretty clean in the SP, but her LPs usually have at least one mistake or two.
The latest base value analysis between Mao Asada and Yuna Kim post-four Continents by blogger Jackie Wong: http://www.examiner.com/article/opin...g-asada-vs-kim
"Randy [Starkman (1960-April 16, 2012)] lived by the same motto as the rest of us. The Olympics isn’t every four years, it’s every single day. He just got it." --Canadian Olympic kayaker Adam van Koeverden
Yu-Na's programs aren't impressing me this year so far. It doesn't feel like she is connected with the music.
[QUOTE=FSfan107;3837961]I actually think Carolina's musical interpretation and overall presentation are superior to both Mao and Yu-Na. I'd rank them: 1. Carolina 2. Mao 3. Yu-Na
Just don't get that at all.