US Skaters Projection/Discussion for JGP Spots 2013-14

[haribobo]

Ladies- Cesario is aging out, and its time for Hicks and Siraj to go senior...anyway, some configuration of the following-

Angela Wang (possibly SGP) S9
Hannah Miller (possibly SGP) S10
Polina Edmunds- J1
Barbie Long- J3
Karen Chen- J4
Mariah Bell- J2
Amber Glenn- J5
Tyler Pierce N1
Ashley Cain S12
Leah Keiser S-WD
Kiri Baga S13


Pairs- lots of teams aging out leaves us with the below assortment

Denney/Frazier- S5 (maybe SGP)
Aaron/Settlage- J3
Liu/Perini- J4
Belt/Johnson- J9
Zaitsev/Stevens- N1
Budd/Cheban- N2
Middleton/Hennings- N3
Takai/Johnson- N4

Men- safe to say Brown and Farris will move up to SGP already, enough is enough. Yostanto and Choate aging out. Vincent Zhou sadly too young yet!

Tomoki Hiwatashi- N1
Shotaro Omori- J2
Nathan Chen- J3
Jimmy Ma- J4
Jordan Moeller- J5
Nix Phengsy- J7
Brian Krentz- J8
There will probably be a few spots after that, but I'd let the summer comps hash things out between novice medalists 2-4 (Melnyk, Vrdoljak, Samohin), and lower ranked juniors (Tomasello, Kaugars, Schetelich) assuming they are all age eligible.

Dance- someone else can do this one

[jlai]

Hicks and Siraj could end up in JGP again if they don't do well enough at jr world. Of course, Hicks could get a host pick at SA, but then remember Armin, who had to wait until Evan withdrew. Hicks might opt for jGP instead of taking a chance

[pinky166]

Ashley Cain I think would more likely be picked for Senior B events, she doesn't age out next season but she's skating on the senior level nationally now so I assume they'd give her a choice of JGP or Senior Bs, which she would then decide what she wants to do.

Vanessa Lam doesn't have a very strong ISU SB this season as she only competed in one JGP where she wasn't at her best, but with her WS and tendency to skate well over the summer, she maybe could be in the mix for a Skate America spot (I am fairly certain Cesario will get one of the SA spots, but Lam could get the other). Any chance Lam could get a GP invite without a host pick? I think Sam definitely could if she does well at JW, and SA could give her a 2nd. If she medals at JW she might even be able to get 2 invites without SA, like Gracie did last season. If that happens, Wang and Miller could move up. I think they did enough on the JGP to get a senior GP assignment even without an outing to JW, likely it won't be enough for 2, but SA could give one of them a 2nd. Hicks and Siraj are in the same boat as Cesario, I think JW will determine if they go GP or JGP, a good showing should be able to get them a senior GP event.

Baga I think would likely need stellar summer results to get a JGP, unless a bunch of spots open up because most of the other girls move up to senior GP.

Also, this is going to sound dumb, but Shotari Omori is really, really good and he's less than 1 year younger than Farris and Brown, so any way he could do the senior GP next season? I mean, say he medals at JW? I know the field is really deep but I was really impressed with him at Nationals, particularly his SP, he is a complete and mature skater, and he has a 3a, so he would not look out of place on the GP at all. I know the spots are tight, but idk.

[Sylvia]

Ladies- Cesario is aging out, and its time for Hicks and Siraj to go senior...anyway, some configuration of the following-

Angela Wang (possibly SGP) S9
Hannah Miller (possibly SGP) S10
Polina Edmunds- J1
Barbie Long- J3
Karen Chen- J4
Mariah Bell- J2
Amber Glenn- J5
Tyler Pierce N1
Ashley Cain S12
Leah Keiser S-WD
Kiri Baga S13

Also, Vanessa Lam may want to return to the JGP for her last season of ISU Junior eligibility (she turns 18 in June) if there's a slot for her and she monitors well this summer. Let's see how Hicks and Siraj (who shares the exact same birthday with Angela Wang) fare at Junior Worlds.

Pairs- lots of teams aging out leaves us with the below assortment

Denney/Frazier- S5 (maybe SGP)
Aaron/Settlage- J3
Liu/Perini- J4
Belt/Johnson- J9
Zaitsev/Stevens- N1
Budd/Cheban- N2
Middleton/Hennings N3
Takai/Johnson- N4

Unfortunately, Middleton/Hennings have split - Elise is listed on icepartnersearch.com as of today. Max Settlage is lucky to have been born on July 1st!

Tomoki Hiwatashi- N1
Shotaro Omori- J2
Nathan Chen- J3
Jimmy Ma- J4
Jordan Moeller- J5
Nix Phengsy- J7
Brian Krentz- J8
There will probably be a few spots after that, but I'd let the summer comps hash things out between novice medalists 2-4 (Melnyk, Vrdoljak, Samohin), and lower ranked juniors (Tomasello, Kaugars, Schetelich) assuming they are all age eligible.

Tomasello turns 19 in May so he ages out (it's too bad he wasn't able to compete last summer and contend for one of the JGP slots... maybe even Lake Placid as an alternate).

DANCE (aging out: Aldridge/Eaton J1, Heritage/Fast J7):
Hawayek/Baker J2
McNamara/Carpenter J3
Moore/Klaber J4
Pogrebinsky/Gudis J5
Miller/MacMillan J6
ETA: Parsons/Parsons (WD from Nationals due to injury)
Lewis/Bye N1 - she'll be 13 & he 15 before July 1
Patsis/Johnson N2 - she's 17 & he'll be 19 before July 1
Wren/Shchepetov N3 - she's 14 & he's 15
Nationals was last comp.: Rosinski/Jaffe J8 - Jacob deferred his entry to Brown University last year & plans on starting this fall
Too young: Becker/Becker N4 - she'll turn 11 this month, he'll be 13 in March

[Stephanie]

For dance, I'm sure the Parsons will be back on the JGP

[her grace]

Good analysis, haribobo and Sylvia.

I don't think very many ladies will move up to the senior GP this season. There's too many American ladies ahead of them and a limited number of GP spots. If Hicks medals at junior worlds, I could see her moving to Seniors. She did well enough nationally that USFS would likely politic for her. I wish I could see Wang moving up, but since she's not going to jr. worlds, she's probably stuck in juniors again. Siraj, IMO, will stay junior unless she has a spectacular showing at jr. worlds. Her world standing is very low and she hasn't had many international assignments the last two seasons. She's young enough to remain junior, and I suspect she will. Cesario, of course, has to move up. I really hope she does well enough at junior worlds, that she receives a GP or two next season. The 2014-15 season is likely when a lot of these ladies will make the jump to seniors since the field should open up because of retirements.

I'm interested to see whether Cain gets a JGP assignment. S12 has been the lowest placement at seniors to get a JGP the last couple years, but there's a lot of young talent waiting to debut (e.g., Edmunds, Bell, Chen, Glenn) who deserve a shot more IMO. I think Baga is out of luck for JGP internationals next season. She's had a fine JGP run with lots of international experience--she could possibly get a Senior B for singles or focus on pairs.

[Sylvia]

I think Baga is out of luck for JGP internationals next season. She's had a fine JGP run with lots of international experience--she could possibly get a Senior B for singles or focus on pairs.

Baga/Toth have already been assigned to their first Senior B in pairs - Challenge Cup in The Hague next week.

Caitlin Belt/Michael Johnson (J9 in pairs at Nationals) have split and are both listed on IPS.

Is the required solo jump in the Junior Ladies & Men SP next season the loop? ETA: It should be because it was Lutz last season and flip this season.

[mgobluegirl]

I'm interested to see whether Cain gets a JGP assignment. S12 has been the lowest placement at seniors to get a JGP the last couple years, but there's a lot of young talent waiting to debut (e.g., Edmunds, Bell, Chen, Glenn) who deserve a shot more IMO.

I'd rather see Cain than Glenn. Glenn has terrible skating skills and sloppy presentation, and Ashley's programs are always lovely. She's going to need to be landing that lutz better than she was at nationals, though.

[pinky166]

Does anyone know if Josh and Jason are likely to make the top 24 WS list after the season is over? I'm just thinking regarding moving up to the GP, in case they don't make the cut for top 24 SB, you would hope they'd still move up to senior GP and be able to get at least one assignment each.

[misskarne]

Does anyone know if Josh and Jason are likely to make the top 24 WS list after the season is over? I'm just thinking regarding moving up to the GP, in case they don't make the cut for top 24 SB, you would hope they'd still move up to senior GP and be able to get at least one assignment each.

Josh is at 22nd and Jason at 30th, I think? And they can both improve their SBs at JW, if Josh goes clean I would expect him to go beyond his 222 PB and two clean triple Axel'd programs from Jason should give him a 220+, I would think, but I'm not quite sure where that would put them on the list and obviously that would depend on two clean skates from both of them at their maximum technical content.

[jlai]

I'd rather see Cain than Glenn. Glenn has terrible skating skills and sloppy presentation, and Ashley's programs are always lovely. She's going to need to be landing that lutz better than she was at nationals, though.

I think Ashley skates more like a senior and while I don't mind her getting jgp over Glenn, I kinda hope she'll do senior Bs as there will be no specific jump requirement in the short program to limit her.

[euterpe]

Josh is at 22nd and Jason at 30th, I think? And they can both improve their SBs at JW, if Josh goes clean I would expect him to go beyond his 222 PB and two clean triple Axel'd programs from Jason should give him a 220+, I would think, but I'm not quite sure where that would put them on the list and obviously that would depend on two clean skates from both of them at their maximum technical content.

As far as World Rankings are concerned, both Jason and Josh will probably be out of the top 24. The problem is they are likely to be passed pointwise by skaters who are now lower on the rankings, simply because competing at Worlds gains much higher points than points earned at JW. Placing 9th at Worlds earns 517 points, 17 points more than JW gold, and 10th at Worlds earns 465 points, more than silver (450) and bronze (405) at JW. So even if they both make the podium at JW, they could drop lower in the rankings.

Yes, they could both improve their SB scores. Josh can probably improve his SB ranking (now #22) and stay in the top 24 by adding 10 points to his current SB (218.69). But Jason, currently at #34 with 198.32, would have to improve his SB by more than 25 points. That won't be so easy to do unless he can nail the 3a consistently.

[pinky166]

As far as World Rankings are concerned, both Jason and Josh will probably be out of the top 24. The problem is they are likely to be passed pointwise by skaters who are now lower on the rankings, simply because competing at Worlds gains much higher points than points earned at JW. Placing 9th at Worlds earns 517 points, 17 points more than JW gold, and 10th at Worlds earns 465 points, more than silver (450) and bronze (405) at JW. So even if they both make the podium at JW, they could drop lower in the rankings.

Yes, they could both improve their SB scores. Josh can probably improve his SB ranking (now #22) and stay in the top 24 by adding 10 points to his current SB (218.69). But Jason, currently at #34 with 198.32, would have to improve his SB by more than 25 points. That won't be so easy to do unless he can nail the 3a consistently.

You really think a score of 228 will be needed to make the top 24?? Who are you expecting to score that high that hasn't already between now and Worlds?
Here is 22 to 34 currently:

22 218.69 Joshua FARRIS --> capable of higher but might not need it to make cut.
23 217.61 Sergei VORONOV --> most likely not at Worlds. Could maybe top at WTT.
24 211.88 Alexander MAJOROV --> unlikely to top this score at Worlds, the best he's seen in awhile by a lot
25 210.47 Adam RIPPON --> will not be at Worlds, only way he can pass is at WTT
26 209.84 Artur GACHINSKI --> most likely not at Worlds. Could maybe top at WTT (between him and Voronov only 1 is likely to go).
27 203.70 Denis TEN --> all the ability in the World, but his injuries and competitive history aren't encouraging
28 203.65 Armin MAHBANOOZADEH --> not going to Worlds, WTT also unlikely.
29 201.99 Andrei ROGOZINE --> 4CC score was for pretty perfect skates, unlikely to top.
30 201.71 Misha GE --> with his content unlikely to move up after Worlds.
31 199.94 Elladj BALDE --> not at Worlds, unlikely to be at WTT either.
32 199.37 Zhan BUSH --> not at Worlds, unlikely to be at WTT.
33 198.92 Ryuju HINO --> was pretty much perfect at JGPF to get this score. If he can add a quad, maybe move up a bit, but unlikely to the top 24.
34 198.32 Jason BROWN --> capable of much higher but JW is his last chance.


The only other noteworthy skaters below this point at Tomas Verner, 35, who could score big at Worlds but with the season he's had it seems unlikely. Boyang Jin, 38, will be at JW and has very ambitious content but pulling into top 24 will be hard even if he's perfect. Kolyada had a big score at Russian Junior Nats but has never seen anything like it internationally, and Samarin is also going to JW but is only 47 on the list currently.

Therefore, I doubt 228 will be the cutoff score for the top 24. Most likely it will be about 212 as it is currently.

[jlai]

I think chances are good Farris will stay in top 24 seasons best. Brown's chance will depend on JW.