There were some questions about Alexander Johnson and international assignments, and the good news from Sylvia that he qualified for envelope C and should get a Senior B.
I started to look at the skaters who should be guaranteed GP spots next year:
1 and 2. If Aaron and Miner both come in Top 12 at Worlds, then each would be guaranteed two spots. If they don't, then Miner should be safely in the Top 24 SB and WS lists guaranteed one. There's a very good chance Aaron as National Champion, would be offered Skate America, but that doesn't seem to be guaranteed. He's currently too low realistically to make the Top 24 WS list for the beginning of next season, but between 4C's and Worlds, he could be on the Top 24 SB list -- he doesn't have an SB now, having done Senior B's this year -- even were he to fall to 13-15 in London, if last year's Worlds scores are anything to go by.
3. Jeremy Abbott. Currently 13th on the SB list, and it's unlikely eleven skaters will surpass him. Currently 7th on the adjusted* WS list, and while he'll be surpassed by a number of skaters, it's not likely he'll fall off the Top 24 WS, so will be guaranteed one.
4. Joshua Farris is currently 17th on the SB list, and he's immediately vulnerable to Kevin Reynolds, who has 4C's and Worlds and is within a couple of points, and there are a handful of others who have a decent shot at surpassing him, but for him to fall off the Top 24 SB list, at least four skaters would need to score twenty points higher than they have so far this year, and while one or two tend to have that experience, I wouldn't bet on it. They ISU keeps playing around with whether former Junior Worlds medalists and JGPF medalists (this season, only the winner) get a guaranteed GP spot. He's close to the bubble for adjusted* Worlds Standings, but I think he'll hold his spot, even were he to falter at Jr. Worlds.
5. Adam Rippon is currently 23 on SB List and 18 on the WS list, but were he not to surpass his current SB score (at NHK), he'll almost certainly be knocked off the Top 24 SB list. I think he's on the bubble for WS list, and needs to get points at 4C's, and were he to come in at least 10th (194 points), he'd likely have enough of a margin to be guaranteed one spot.
6. Richard Dornbush: 19th on the SB list, and could be on the bubble for a guaranteed spot. He should fall off the Top 24 WS after being passed by Farris (Jr. Worlds), Oda (Senior B), Brown (Jr. Worlds), Yan (4C's and Jr. Worlds), Reynolds (4C's and Worlds), Hino if he comes in 4th or higher at Jr. Worlds, and Liebers, if he comes in 11th or higher at Worlds, since he has no way to earn more points this year.
7. Alexander Johnson: no SB or WS.
8. Jason Brown: 31 on the SB list and 24 on the adjusted* Worlds Standings list. If he does well at Jr. Worlds, he could actually hang onto to Top 24 WS. He's have to skate a blinder to be Top 24 SB. He's more than 20 points below current #24 Artur Gachinski, and he has one less jump pass as a junior. If he medals at Jr. Worlds, he might be guaranteed a spot if he goes senior next year, if the rules are at least a liberal for Jr. Worlds medalists as this season.
9 and below: not enough WS points or high enough SB (if they have them) to be guaranteed a spot. Mahbanoozadeh (27), Razzano (40), and Choate (41) will be on the Top 75 SB list and are eligible for a GP pick other than a host pick.
1. Aaron: could earn two from Worlds, guaranteed one, could be assigned directly to Skate America
2. Miner: based on past results, very good chance to be guaranteed two from Worlds, guaranteed one from SB and WS
3. Abbott: should be guaranteed one from SB and WS
4. Farris: should be guaranteed one from either Jr. Worlds (if podium) or SB list.
5 Rippon: if he has a good 4C's, he should be guaranteed one from SB and/or WS. He could default into one if he doesn't.
6. Dornbush: might be on the SB bubble. Could be chosen as Top 75 if not or for a host spot.
7. Johnson: only eligible for a host spot.
8. Brown: could be guaranteed one if he's on the Jr. Worlds podium or from WS
*adjusted World Standings: I removed the points from 2010-11 and factored the 2011-12 points by 70% as of today for the Top 42 Men. I'll post that separately.