US GP Skaters for 2013-14

[haribobo]

Ladies w/ top 24 ISU SB (post Euros, pre Jr Worlds, 4cc, Worlds)

4 190.63 Ashley WAGNER
10 176.68 Mirai NAGASU
12 175.03 Gracie GOLD
13 174.25 Christina GAO
16 168.41 Hannah MILLER
19 166.61 Agnes ZAWADZKI
20 162.65 Angela WANG
23 157.72 Samantha CESARIO
----------
*Yasmin Siraj and Courtney Hicks should be named to Junior Worlds (along with either Gao or Cesario) and have the potential to crack the top 24. Either way, now that Courtney is a National medalist, I see her getting Skate America if need be to get her on the GP. Cesario is aging out of juniors after this season- really hoping to see her get at least one spot. Hannah Miller and Angela Wang are good enough to go senior but might end up on JGP again. Siraj is young enough to do JGP again, but might move up too- we'll see how Junior Worlds goes. I'm not sure about Alissa Czisny, I guess she'll get Skate America because I don't think 22nd at Worlds qualifies you as a comeback skater...

[Jammers]

Gao has had three shots at Jr Worlds. Time for someone like Wang to go. I think she is going to be one to watch post Sochi.

[haribobo]

PAIRS

9 179.21 Caydee DENNEY / John COUGHLIN
11 174.51 Marissa CASTELLI / Simon SHNAPIR
14 163.10 Alexa SCIMECA / Chris KNIERIM
24 143.70 Lindsay DAVIS / Mark LADWIG
-------
Davis/Ladwig will probably get knocked out of top 24 but they'll still be ok since teams always split or get injured before the GP. Vise/Baldwin are in the top 30 also, for what that's worth. Zhang/Bartholomay will get an ISU score at 4CC which is fantastic for them. Denney/Frazier could end up on JGP again or bump up a bit at Jr. Worlds from their current SB placement of 39th to get on the GP. Donlan/Speroff are 34th and should be able to get a spot somewhere off the alternate list. Simpson/Blackmer are 32nd on the list and as Junior champs aging out, they will likely get a spot at SA if nothing else. Calalang/Sidhu are also aging out, 41st on the list for now, going to Junior Worlds to try to bump that up a bit...also, I'd like to see Kayne/O'Shea get Skate America if they are looking good by the time Indy rolls around...

[haribobo]

DANCE

1 183.39 Meryl DAVIS / Charlie WHITE
9 154.56 Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI
12 149.54 Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES
14 145.23 Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE
20 141.41 Lynn KRIENGKRAIRUT / Logan GIULIETTI-SCHMITT
22 138.61 Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER
23 138.43 Alexandra ALDRIDGE / Daniel EATON
---------------

Probably Hawayek/Baker end up on JGP again. The rest should be good to go for at least one spot each- this discipline is much more cut and dry than the others.

[haribobo]

MEN

10 235.37 Ross MINER USA
13 227.63 Jeremy ABBOTT
16 222.00 Nathan CHEN
17 218.69 Joshua FARRIS
19 217.56 Richard DORNBUSH
23 210.47 Adam RIPPON
27 203.65 Armin MAHBANOOZADEH
31 198.32 Jason BROWN
---------------------

Chen will go back to Juniors, safe to say Max Aaron will get on the GP now , and hopefully Alex Johnson gets a SA spot.

[misskarne]

MEN

10 235.37 Ross MINER USA
13 227.63 Jeremy ABBOTT
16 222.00 Nathan CHEN
17 218.69 Joshua FARRIS
19 217.56 Richard DORNBUSH
23 210.47 Adam RIPPON
27 203.65 Armin MAHBANOOZADEH
31 198.32 Jason BROWN
---------------------

Chen will go back to Juniors, safe to say Max Aaron will get on the GP now , and hopefully Alex Johnson gets a SA spot.

Almost certainly Brown and Farris will go to Seniors. They're both age-eligible for one more year, but Farris especially is more than ready, and I really can't see Brown hanging around another year in Juniors - if he can land the 3A at JW, I'd say he'll go up.

[pinky166]

Jason is capable of blowing his current SB out of the water at JW, so I hope that happens, because it might make the difference between 1 GP assignment next season versus 2. But USFS loves him so I'm sure he'd get SA if he only got 1 event initially. But I'd like to see Alex Johnson at SA, plus Jason can do much better than 198 points, and we saw today that Josh is capable of far more than 218 as well. But even the 218 should likely make the top 25 SB list, so it's more just Jason that needs to bump up the SB. But I think his WS is in the top 25 already so it might not even matter that much (I'd just love to see what kind of scores they can get internationally with great skates, even at a junior event).

[kwanfan1818]

Cross-posting from the US Nats Men's LP thread:

There were some questions about Alexander Johnson and international assignments, and the good news from Sylvia that he qualified for envelope C and should get a Senior B.

I started to look at the skaters who should be guaranteed GP spots next year:

1 and 2. If Aaron and Miner both come in Top 12 at Worlds, then each would be guaranteed two spots. If they don't, then Miner should be safely in the Top 24 SB and WS lists guaranteed one. There's a very good chance Aaron as National Champion, would be offered Skate America, but that doesn't seem to be guaranteed. He's currently too low realistically to make the Top 24 WS list for the beginning of next season, but between 4C's and Worlds, he could be on the Top 24 SB list -- he doesn't have an SB now, having done Senior B's this year -- even were he to fall to 13-15 in London, if last year's Worlds scores are anything to go by.

3. Jeremy Abbott. Currently 13th on the SB list, and it's unlikely eleven skaters will surpass him. Currently 7th on the adjusted* WS list, and while he'll be surpassed by a number of skaters, it's not likely he'll fall off the Top 24 WS, so will be guaranteed one.

4. Joshua Farris is currently 17th on the SB list, and he's immediately vulnerable to Kevin Reynolds, who has 4C's and Worlds and is within a couple of points, and there are a handful of others who have a decent shot at surpassing him, but for him to fall off the Top 24 SB list, at least four skaters would need to score twenty points higher than they have so far this year, and while one or two tend to have that experience, I wouldn't bet on it. They ISU keeps playing around with whether former Junior Worlds medalists and JGPF medalists (this season, only the winner) get a guaranteed GP spot. He's close to the bubble for adjusted* Worlds Standings, but I think he'll hold his spot, even were he to falter at Jr. Worlds.

5. Adam Rippon is currently 23 on SB List and 18 on the WS list, but were he not to surpass his current SB score (at NHK), he'll almost certainly be knocked off the Top 24 SB list. I think he's on the bubble for WS list, and needs to get points at 4C's, and were he to come in at least 10th (194 points), he'd likely have enough of a margin to be guaranteed one spot.

6. Richard Dornbush: 19th on the SB list, and could be on the bubble for a guaranteed spot. He should fall off the Top 24 WS after being passed by Farris (Jr. Worlds), Oda (Senior B), Brown (Jr. Worlds), Yan (4C's and Jr. Worlds), Reynolds (4C's and Worlds), Hino if he comes in 4th or higher at Jr. Worlds, and Liebers, if he comes in 11th or higher at Worlds, since he has no way to earn more points this year.

7. Alexander Johnson: no SB or WS.

8. Jason Brown: 31 on the SB list and 24 on the adjusted* Worlds Standings list. If he does well at Jr. Worlds, he could actually hang onto to Top 24 WS. He's have to skate a blinder to be Top 24 SB. He's more than 20 points below current #24 Artur Gachinski, and he has one less jump pass as a junior. If he medals at Jr. Worlds, he might be guaranteed a spot if he goes senior next year, if the rules are at least a liberal for Jr. Worlds medalists as this season.

9 and below: not enough WS points or high enough SB (if they have them) to be guaranteed a spot. Mahbanoozadeh (27), Razzano (40), and Choate (41) will be on the Top 75 SB list and are eligible for a GP pick other than a host pick.

To summarize:

1. Aaron: could earn two from Worlds, guaranteed one, could be assigned directly to Skate America
2. Miner: based on past results, very good chance to be guaranteed two from Worlds, guaranteed one from SB and WS
3. Abbott: should be guaranteed one from SB and WS
4. Farris: should be guaranteed one from either Jr. Worlds (if podium) or SB list.
5 Rippon: if he has a good 4C's, he should be guaranteed one from SB and/or WS. He could default into one if he doesn't.
6. Dornbush: might be on the SB bubble. Could be chosen as Top 75 if not or for a host spot.
7. Johnson: only eligible for a host spot.
8. Brown: could be guaranteed one if he's on the Jr. Worlds podium or from WS

*adjusted World Standings: I removed the points from 2010-11 and factored the 2011-12 points by 70% as of today for the Top 42 Men. I'll post that separately.

[kwanfan1818]

Here is the adjusted Worlds Standings list for the Top 42 Men. This obviously doesn't include any remaining Senior B's, 4C's, or Worlds, and there are no WS points for World Team Trophy. I removed 2010-11, which will drop off at the end of this season before the GP selection WS list is created, and I factored the 2011-12 season by 70%.

I was poking around with this to see how many US Men would likely get guaranteed spots, hoping that there would be so many, that Alexander Johnson would be give a host spot next year.

The list includes the skater,

• The adjusted total
• How many points in total dropped off from the current WS amount from the 2010-11 season and the 70% factor on last season.
• The potential number of Senior B points available if the skater maxxed out before season-end. (Most won't be earned.)
• For 4C's, 0 if competing at 4C's,, NA if European, No if not competing,
• For Worlds or Jr. Worlds: number of championship points earned at Euros, which would be replaced by Worlds points, if more earned at Worlds, since only one championship score counts er season, No if not competing
• Comments.

1 Javier FERNANDEZ - Adj. Tot: 3221 - Points drop: 627 - Sr B: 297 - 4C's: NA - Worlds: -840
2 Yuzuru HANYU - Adj. Tot: 2913 - Points drop: 1191 - Sr B: 250 - 4C's: 0 - Worlds: 0
3 Michal BREZINA - Adj. Tot: 2893 - Points drop: 717 - Sr B: 111 - 4C's: NA - Worlds: -680
4 Patrick CHAN - Adj. Tot: 2728 - Points drop: 1720 - Sr B: 500 - 4C's: No - Worlds: 0
5 Daisuke TAKAHASHI - Adj. Tot: 2700 - Points drop: 1296 - Sr B: 500 - 4C's: 0 - Worlds: 0
6 Florent AMODIO - Adj. Tot: 2106 - Points drop: 645 - Sr B: 500 - 4C's: NA - Worlds: -756
7 Jeremy ABBOTT - Adj. Tot: 1830 - Points drop: 992 - Sr B: 500 - 4C's: No - Worlds: NA
8 Tatsuki MACHIDA - Adj. Tot: 1758 - Points drop: 806 - Sr B: 250 - 4C's: No - Worlds: No
9 Takahiko KOZUKA - Adj. Tot: 1697 - Points drop: 1216 - Sr B: 500 - 4C's: No - Worlds: No
10 Brian JOUBERT - Adj. Tot: 1692 - Points drop: 541 - Sr B: 500 - 4C's: NA - Worlds: -612
11 Konstantin MENSHOV - Adj. Tot: 1675 - Points drop: 576 - Sr B: 25 - 4C's: NA - Worlds: No
12 Alexander MAJOROV - Adj. Tot: 1668 - Points drop: 546 - Sr B: 0 - 4C's: NA - Worlds: -496
13 Ross MINER - Adj. Tot: 1657 - Points drop: 665 - Sr B: 297 - 4C's: 0 - Worlds: 0
14 Denis TEN - Adj. Tot: 1632 - Points drop: 704 - Sr B: 250 - 4C's: 0 - Worlds: 0
15 Maxim KOVTUN - Adj. Tot: 1505 - Points drop: 151 - Sr B: 500 - 4C's: NA - Worlds: -551
16 Tomas VERNER - Adj. Tot: 1447 - Points drop: 884 - Sr B: 297 - 4C's: NA - Worlds: -293
17 Sergei VORONOV - Adj. Tot: 1360 - Points drop: 161 - Sr B: 500 - 4C's: NA - Worlds: -446 (No SP, FS Min)
18 Adam RIPPON - Adj. Tot: 1319 - Points drop: 782 - Sr B: 500 - 4C's: 0 - Worlds: 0
19 Takahito MURA - Adj. Tot: 1279 - Points drop: 777 - Sr B: 500 - 4C's: 0 - Worlds: 0
20 Chafik BESSEGHIER - Adj. Tot: 1275 - Points drop: 579 - Sr B: 318 - 4C's: NA - Worlds: -362
21 Richard DORNBUSH - Adj. Tot: 1258 - Points drop: 601 - Sr B: 275 - 4C's: No - Worlds: No
22 Joshua FARRIS - Adj. Tot: 1254 - Points drop: 295 - Sr B: 500 - 4C's: No - Worlds: 0
23 Nobunari ODA - Adj. Tot: 1237 - Points drop: 959 - Sr B: 250 - 4C's: No - Worlds: No
24 Jason BROWN - Adj. Tot: 1209 - Points drop: 487 - Sr B: 500 - 4C's: No - Worlds: 0
25 Peter LIEBERS - Adj. Tot: 1185 - Points drop: 336 - Sr B: 47 - 4C's: NA - Worlds: -325
26 Han YAN - Adj. Tot: 1135 - Points drop: 583 - Sr B: 500 - 4C's: 0 - Worlds: 0
27 Kevin REYNOLDS - Adj. Tot: 1110 - Points drop: 594 - Sr B: 318 - 4C's: 0 - Worlds: 0
28 Artur GACHINSKI - Adj. Tot: 1108 - Points drop: 1580 - Sr B: 500 - 4C's: NA - Worlds: No
29 Ryuju HINO - Adj. Tot: 996 - Points drop: 208 - Sr B: 500 - 4C's: NA - Worlds: 0
30 Misha GE - Adj. Tot: 976 - Points drop: 428 - Sr B: 93 - 4C's: 0 - Worlds: 0
31 Nan SONG - Adj. Tot: 955 - Points drop: 714 - Sr B: 500 - 4C's: 0 - Worlds: 0
32 Keiji TANAKA - Adj. Tot: 921 - Points drop: 524 - Sr B: 500 - 4C's: No - Worlds: 0
33 Armin MAHBANOOZADEH - Adj. Tot: 775 - Points drop: 723 - Sr B: 72 - 4C's: No - Worlds: No
34 Jorik HENDRICKX - Adj. Tot: 768 - Points drop: 689 - Sr B: 318 - 4C's: NA - Worlds: 0 (injured)
35 Daisuke MURAKAMI - Adj. Tot: 740 - Points drop: 562 - Sr B: 275 - 4C's: No - Worlds: No
36 Paolo BACCHINI - Adj. Tot: 732 - Points drop: 462 - Sr B: 47 - 4C's: NA - Worlds: 0
37 Kim LUCINE - Adj. Tot: 714 - Points drop: 478 - Sr B: 500 - 4C's: NA - Worlds: -264
38 Jinlin GUAN - Adj. Tot: 677 - Points drop: 578 - Sr B: 500 - 4C's: NA - Worlds: 0
39 Keegan MESSING - Adj. Tot: 628 - Points drop: 667 - Sr B: 47 - 4C's: No - Worlds: No
40 Max AARON - Adj. Tot: 590 - Points drop: 615 - Sr B: 25 - 4C's: 0 - Worlds: 0
41 Abzal RAKIMGALIEV - Adj. Tot: 400 - Points drop: 833 - Sr B: 500 - 4C's: 0 - Worlds: 0
42 Andrei ROGOZINE - Adj. Tot: 314 - Points drop: 859 - Sr B: 500 - 4C's: 0 - Worlds: ?

[Sylvia]

Thanks for crunching these numbers/points!

P.S. Maybe there could be a 2013-14 Grand Prix Assignments early projections thread started in GSD using this data?

[Vash01]

Jeremy is still a top 10 in the world skater. It's a shame he cannot go to worlds this year.

Why is Max Aaron not on the possible US list for Skate America?

[Sylvia]

Why is Max Aaron not on the possible US list for Skate America?

If you're asking why he is not listed in post #5 of this thread, it's because Aaron doesn't have an ISU Seasons Best score - this will change after 4CC. As the U.S. champ, Aaron is likely to be chosen by USFS for Skate America, but we'll have to wait and see what happens.

ETA: Or maybe you thought you were in this thread? US Skaters for 2013 Skate America spots

[kwanfan1818]

It's too bad that Rippon has had to withdrawn from 4C's because of injury. At 23rd on the SB list now, he's almost certainly to be knocked out of Top 24 SB, and there are at least eight skaters who should surpass him on the Top WS list, knocking him out of the Top 24:

18. Rippon: 1309
19. Mura: 1279. Needs 40 to tie, 41 to pass, or 24th or higher at 4C's or Worlds.
20. Besseghier: 1274. (-35). Has 362 points from Euros. Needs 397 to tie or 398 to pass, 11th or higher at Worlds.
21. Dornbush: 1258. Needs 51 to tie, 52 to pass, or 24th or higher at 4C's.
22. Farris: 1254. Needs 55 to tie, or 22nd at Jr. Worlds, 56 to pass, or 21st at Jr. Worlds.
23. Oda. 1237. Needs 72 to tie, 73 to pass, or 5th at upcoming Senior B.
24. Brown: 1209. Needs 100 to tie, 101 to pass, or 16th or higher at Jr. Worlds.
25. Liebers 1185 (-124), 325 from Euros, needs 449 to tie, 450 to pass, or 120h or higher at Worlds.
26. Yan: 1135, needs 174 to tie, or 11th at Jr. Worlds, 175 to pass, or 10th at Jr. Worlds.
27. Reynolds: 1110. Needs 199 to tie or 200 to pass, or 14th or higher at 4C's/18th or higher at Worlds.
28. Gachinski: 1108. Not scheduled for more events.
29. Hino: 996. Needs 313 to tie, 314 to pass, or 5th or higher at Jr. Worlds.
30. Ge: 976. Needs 323 to tie, 324 to pass, or 10th or higher at 4C's/16th or higher at Worlds.
31. Song: 955. Needs 354 to tie, 355 to pass, or 9th or higher at 4C's/12th or higher at Worlds.
32. Tanaka. Not scheduled.
33. Mahbanoozadeh. Not scheduled.
34 Hendrickxx. 768. Needs 541 to tie, 542 to pass, or 8th or higher at Worlds (if he's even ready for it.)

He'll have a Top 75 SB and be eligible for an invite, but he won't be guaranteed a spot.

[Rochelle]

PAIRS

9 179.21 Caydee DENNEY / John COUGHLIN
11 174.51 Marissa CASTELLI / Simon SHNAPIR
14 163.10 Alexa SCIMECA / Chris KNIERIM
24 143.70 Lindsay DAVIS / Mark LADWIG
-------
Davis/Ladwig will probably get knocked out of top 24 but they'll still be ok since teams always split or get injured before the GP. Vise/Baldwin are in the top 30 also, for what that's worth. Zhang/Bartholomay will get an ISU score at 4CC which is fantastic for them. Denney/Frazier could end up on JGP again or bump up a bit at Jr. Worlds from their current SB placement of 39th to get on the GP. Donlan/Speroff are 34th and should be able to get a spot somewhere off the alternate list. Simpson/Blackmer are 32nd on the list and as Junior champs aging out, they will likely get a spot at SA if nothing else. Calalang/Sidhu are also aging out, 41st on the list for now, going to Junior Worlds to try to bump that up a bit...also, I'd like to see Kayne/O'Shea get Skate America if they are looking good by the time Indy rolls around...

Are they basing the top 24 in ISU season points only from the list here http://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/...13/sbtspto.htm? Or do they also include the Senior Bs/etc. such as The Challenge Cup?

With Kayne/O'shea, Baga/Toth, and Leng/LeDuc now entered in the Challenge Cup. If that counts for the top 24 on the ISU list for determining Grand Prix, they could shake up the top 20-30 Seasons Best placements a bit, if any of those teams score in the 140s+ as they are capable of.

I also imagine that all three Junior Worlds teams (Season/Blackmer, Calalang/Sidhu, and Denney/Frazier) are capable of scoring 140s+, and also moving into the top 30 places of the Season's Best list. Of course, other countries teams may move up based on their 4Cont, Worlds, and Junior World scores...

Really hoping Zhang/Bartholomay throw down a strong set of programs! Their chance to earn an ISU score at 4CC really would be fantastic for them, and could put them into the top 24 list easily with strong performances.

[Sylvia]

Challenge Cup is a Senior B comp. so only ISU World Standings ranking points are given (to the top 5 finishers); the scores of Kayne/O'Shea, Baga/Toth, Leng/LeDuc, Alex Johnson and Brandon Mroz will not count for the ISU Seasons Best scores list.

The ISU World Standings rankings will be updated before the Grand Prix selection meeting - points from the 2010-11 season will be removed and points from the 2011-12 season will be reduced to 70%.

[kwanfan1818]

The only competitions that count for the Season's Best list are:
GP/JGP
GPF/JGPF
ISU championships: Euros, 4C's, Worlds
World Team Trophy
Olympics, Youth Olympic Games, Olympic qualifier

The Olympic qualifier is the only Senior B that counts towards the SB list. For the 2014-15 season, the results from 2013 Nebelhorn will count.

[Sylvia]

And the 4th ISU Championship is Junior Worlds.

[Rochelle]

And the 4th ISU Championship is Junior Worlds.

Thank you Kwanfan1818 and Sylvia - this all makes more sense.

Will be interesting to see how 'strategic' U.S. Figure Skating gets with it's "World Team Trophy" assignments this year. Wonder if the payoff to U.S. Figure skating might be smarter in the long run to pick athletes who are near the cusp of earning Grand Prix's, but not quite on the list of top Season's Bests and World Raking... instead of sending likely-to-be-tired World/4CC/Jr World athletes. It can only help to set up as many of our athletes as possible to earn Grand Prix assignments.

Though since last year's team was Wagner/Gold/Abbott/Rippon/D&C/D&W, I imagine that won't be the way USFS assigns the World Team Trophy spots.

[Skittl1321]

Rochelle- I just don't think the USFS thinks strategically in their assignments at all. They'll send their national champions I'm sure. (Not to mention, if you were a top skater- wouldn't you be pissed off if a 'on the cusp' one got assigned to an event that could pay a huge chunk of your training expenses with prize money?)

[kwanfan1818]

Sadly, countries can't decide to spread the wealth as they wish at WTT. I had suggested this for Paul/Islam, but was corrected, rightly so.

Even were USFS inclined to be stategic, WTT is tricky, because, on the one hand, supposedly only the teams that contributed to the score used to detemine which teams compete, ie, for nations with ranked skaters in the discipline, the two skater/teams with the top GP WS points and the two with the top championship points, are supposed to skate at WTT. I'm not sure this happened last year. There's another provision that says that if a team/ skater places top 10 at the prior Worlds and, IIRC is in the top 2 in WS from that country, they must compete, or there are sanctions, etc.

There are different scenarios based on whether D/C skate or and who gets more championship WS points from 4C's and Worlds, but it will be a choice among those senior teams who competed at championships, since no Pair other than these teams got Top 2 GP points.