Yankowskas/Reagan, Parsons/Parsons have withdrawn from 2013 US Nationals

[Vash01]

So now the very real possibility comes into play that the US may only qualify one pairs team to the Olympics next season.

I think they can still get 2 spots for the Olympics. There is no competition from Japan or Korea in pairs, which helps. So they only have to deal with the Russians, Canadians, Europeans and Chinese. Chances are one pair from each country will do poorly. If the US champions, whoever they are, could finish at #10 and the other pair at #18 (or #12 and #16) they could earn 2 spots (I hope my info is correct).

[kwanfan1818]

It's always possible, but it's a long shot, unless there's a big upset at US Nationals, i.e., Castelli/Shnapir are third or lower. Russia has a lot of Pairs in the pipeline, but only three of them can compete. Takahashi/Tran are out. Sui/Han are out. Castelli/Shnapir have the 9th highest total score so far this season in GP, and Denney/Coughlin are one spot ahead of them and not competing. Scimeca/Knierem are 14th on the GP list, with four Russian couples ahead of them and only three that can compete.

Last year, the four teams that didn't make the FS (18 placement points) were Montalbano/Kasnopolski, Morand/Leeman, Kemp/King, and Ri/Thae (PRK). M/K and M/L (he retired) split, last season and this season North Korea only sent R/T to 2012 Worlds, where they didn't meet the SP minimum and didn't compete in the FS, and Kemp/King have been injured and still need the Worlds TES SP minimum. Both Vise/Baldwin's and Davis/Ladwig's high GP scores of 143.X are competitive with K/K's highest score from last season (138+), and C/S's and S/K's GP highs are substantially higher.

At this point, it will be interesting to see if there are enough Pairs competitors at Worlds to drop anyone from the FS, and if they open up the minimums, it will be for skaters who've scored substantially worse than the four US teams that competed in GP this year. Just making it to the FS earns a maximum of 16 points, which means one team needs to be Top 12, which is realistic, barring disaster or fluke, like Borodulin's broken blade.

[Sylvia]

I just looked it up - 11 pairs competed in the Preliminary (FS) round at 2012 Worlds and the top 8 advanced to the SP. 20 pairs then competed in the SP and the top 16 advanced to the FS.

[kwanfan1818]

Then Ri/Thae's Preliminary Round FS score (47+) gives them the World TES FS minimum (45). I'll add that to the thread on Minimum Scores Achieved. They didn't make the 4C's score (20) in the SP round, where they failed to qualify for the FS.

With the current minimums, I'm not sure there are more than 16 teams not blocked by the number of their countries' spots with the current TES minimums. If the ISU lowers the TES minimums to include more teams, Donlan/Speroff also should be competitive with any of the teams that would be let in. (They've also met the ISU TES minimums and competed in GP this season.)

[stjeaskategym]

At this point, it will be interesting to see if there are enough Pairs competitors at Worlds to drop anyone from the FS, and if they open up the minimums, it will be for skaters who've scored substantially worse than the four US teams that competed in GP this year. Just making it to the FS earns a maximum of 16 points, which means one team needs to be Top 12, which is realistic, barring disaster or fluke, like Borodulin's broken blade.

Yeah, it will be virtually impossible to not qualify 2 pairs with the lack of entries. On another note, when the heck are they going to decide whether or not to open up the minimums? I'd hate to see teams from more obscure countries split because they think getting the minimum score and going to Worlds is hopeless, only to have the ISU lower the score at the last minute.

[Proustable]

So now the very real possibility comes into play that the US may only qualify one pairs team to the Olympics next season.

Not likely. The pairs would have to score 14th and 15th or lower to miss out on two spots. C/S and S/K (Scimeca/Knierim) are the only two American teams currently eligible. Their SBs (relative to all others, excluding those not competing due to injury/number of national spots) would rank them 8th and 12th.

re: minimums

They confirmed the minimums for 4CC on January 3rd (the event starts on Feb 6th). It's two weeks before the entry deadline.

[kwanfan1818]

Vise/Baldwin, Donlan/Speroff, and Zhang/Bartholomay still need the Worlds TES SP minimum; they all have the FS minimum, some of the multiple times.

Depending on how US Nationals shakes out, 4C's might be the last shot for any of these three.

[haribobo]

So now the very real possibility comes into play that the US may only qualify one pairs team to the Olympics next season.

Y/R weren't even medal favorites this year even with a weakened field, so this statement really doesn't make any kind of sense.

[blue_idealist]

Vise/Baldwin, Donlan/Speroff, and Zhang/Bartholomay still need the Worlds TES SP minimum; they all have the FS minimum, some of the multiple times.

Depending on how US Nationals shakes out, 4C's might be the last shot for any of these three.

Do Davis/Ladwig have the minimum for both programs? (Worlds)

[reese]

Do Davis/Ladwig have the minimum for both programs? (Worlds)

No. Of the current Nationals field, only C/S and S/K have both.

[Ziggy]

So now the very real possibility comes into play that the US may only qualify one pairs team to the Olympics next season.

Castelli/Shnapir and Scimeca/Knierim should be able to easily qualify two Olympic spots.

[Rochelle]

Castelli/Shnapir and Scimeca/Knierim should be able to easily qualify to Olympic spots.

Agreed. Barring some unforseen disaster (as mentioned above).

Even though it's not the most reliable resource, let's just look at what other pairs have scored so far this season at the larger ISU competitions.

From: http://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/...13/sbtspto.htm

Here's the pair's ISU Judging System - Season Bests Total Scores 2012/2013

1 207.53 Tatiana VOLOSOZHAR / Maxim TRANKOV RUS ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 10.11.2012
2 201.60 Vera BAZAROVA / Yuri LARIONOV RUS ISU Grand Prix Final 2012/13 08.12.2012
3 201.36 Aliona SAVCHENKO / Robin SZOLKOWY GER ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012
4 192.81 Qing PANG / Jian TONG CHN ISU Grand Prix Final 2012/13 08.12.2012
5 190.49 Meagan DUHAMEL / Eric RADFORD CAN ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012
6 187.99 Yuko KAVAGUTI / Alexander SMIRNOV RUS ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2012 17.11.2012
7 180.63 Kirsten MOORE-TOWERS / Dylan MOSCOVITCH CAN ISU GP NHK Trophy 2012 25.11.2012
8 179.21 Caydee DENNEY / John COUGHLIN USA ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 10.11.2012
9 174.51 Marissa CASTELLI / Simon SHNAPIR USA ISU GP NHK Trophy 2012 25.11.2012
10 172.55 Ksenia STOLBOVA / Fedor KLIMOV RUS ISU GP Cup of China 2012 03.11.2012
11 172.03 Stefania BERTON / Ondrej HOTAREK ITA ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012
12 167.76 Cheng PENG / Hao ZHANG CHN ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2012 17.11.2012
13 167.66 Vanessa JAMES / Morgan CIPRES FRA ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2012 20.10.2012
14 163.10 Alexa SCIMECA / Chris KNIERIM USA ISU GP NHK Trophy 2012 25.11.2012
15 162.25 Anastasia MARTIUSHEVA / Alexei ROGONOV RUS ISU GP NHK Trophy 2012 25.11.2012
16 161.11 Lina FEDOROVA / Maxim MIROSHKIN RUS ISU Junior Grand Prix Final 2012/13 08.12.2012
17 158.33 Paige LAWRENCE / Rudi SWIEGERS CAN ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012
18 155.96 Vasilisa DAVANKOVA / Andrei DEPUTAT RUS ISU Junior Grand Prix Final 2012/13 08.12.2012
19 153.56 Maria VIGALOVA / Egor ZAKROEV RUS ISU Junior Grand Prix Final 2012/13 08.12.2012
20 152.78 Brittany JONES / Ian BEHARRY CAN ISU JGP Austria 2012 14.09.2012
21 151.34 Daria POPOVA / Bruno MASSOT FRA ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2012 17.11.2012
22 149.94 Margaret PURDY / Michael MARINARO CAN ISU Junior Grand Prix Final 2012/13 08.12.2012
23 149.20 Xiaoyu YU / Yang JIN CHN ISU Junior Grand Prix Final 2012/13 08.12.2012
24 143.70 Lindsay DAVIS / Mark LADWIG USA ISU GP NHK Trophy 2012 25.11.2012
25 143.52 Wenting WANG / Yan ZHANG CHN ISU GP Cup of China 2012 03.11.2012
26 143.15 Tiffany VISE / Don BALDWIN USA ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 10.11.2012
27 142.53 Nicole DELLA MONICA / Matteo GUARISE ITA ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 10.11.2012
28 142.26 Kamila GAINETDINOVA / Ivan BICH RUS ISU JGP Croatia Cup 2012 05.10.2012
29 137.29 Evgania TARASOVA / Vladimir MOROZOV RUS ISU JGP Croatia Cup 2012 05.10.2012
30 133.48 Annabelle PRÖLSS / Ruben BLOMMAERT GER ISU JGP Pokal d. Blauen Schwerter 2012 12.10.2012
31 133.05 Britney SIMPSON / Matthew BLACKMER USA ISU JGP Austria 2012 14.09.2012
32 131.26 Gretchen DONLAN / Andrew SPEROFF USA ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2012 20.10.2012
33 130.44 Madeline AARON / Max SETTLAGE USA ISU JGP Lake Placid 2012 01.09.2012
34 128.74 Hayleigh BELL / Alistair SYLVESTER CAN ISU JGP Croatia Cup 2012 05.10.2012
35 128.21 Natasha PURICH / Sebastien ARCIERI CAN ISU JGP Pokal d. Blauen Schwerter 2012 12.10.2012
36 127.33 Haven DENNEY / Brandon FRAZIER USA ISU JGP Lake Placid 2012 01.09.2012
37 124.42 Jessica PFUND / AJ REISS USA ISU JGP Lake Placid 2012 01.09.2012
38 123.88 Jessica CALALANG / Zack SIDHU USA ISU JGP Austria 2012 14.09.2012
39 119.67 Shalena RAU / Phelan SIMPSON CAN ISU JGP Lake Placid 2012 01.09.2012
40 119.02 Danielle MONTALBANO / Evgeni KRASNOPOLSKI ISR ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2012 20.10.2012

*I've grayed out those who are injured or not the in the highest 3 / 2 / 1 spot for their country, relative to how many spots each country has. Might have made a mistake in there in doing so - so just point it out and I'll correct.

More considerations:
*Who is Germany's second team that will compete? Van Cleave & Partner? Editted to add: Ioana mentioned below Hausch/Wende "(157 for a PB, as far as I could tell)".
*Japan also has two spots, but with the Takahashi/Tran split I assume they won't send any. Correct?
*Editted to add: As Sylvia points out below, Kemp/King (GBR) are not on the list but scheduled to skate at Europeans. Sylvia also mentioned, "Also, it's still unknown whether or not Sui/Han will return later this season."

Regardless, this gives us an idea that it realistically really, really, shouldn't be difficult for Castelli/Shnapir and Scimeca/Knierim to place accordingly to secure our two U.S. Olympic spots. (Barring some serious disaster).

[ioana]

Hausch/Wende (157 for a PB, as far as I could tell) are also in the mix for Germany and could go to Worlds depending on their Euros performance. I still agree the US should be able to keep 2 spots for next year. C/S and I hope they skate accordingly the rest of the season.

[Sylvia]

Does Germany have a second team that will compete? Van Cleave & Partner? Japan also has two spots, but with the Takahashi/Tran split I assume they won't send any. Correct?

Correct, Japan has no other pair teams at the moment.

3 teams without SB scores this season that are scheduled to compete at Euros:
Maylin HAUSCH / Daniel WENDE GER - ETA that H/W withdrew from Euros today
Mari VARTMANN / Aaron VAN CLEAVE GER
Stacey KEMP / David KING GBR

Also, it's still unknown whether or not Sui/Han will return later this season.

ETA:

Y/R weren't even medal favorites this year even with a weakened field, so this statement really doesn't make any kind of sense.

To be fair, I believe museskater was referring to the fact that the top 3 pairs at 2012 US Nationals were not competing at this year's Nationals and wasn't aware of C/S and S/K's solid international results so far this season. I had assumed that D/C had already officially WD from Nationals (they weren't listed in the original Nationals practice groups document that was published online in late Dec./early Jan.), but their WD was and is being treated like new news (by the Associated Press, etc.).

[Spiralgraph]

I'm sad that Y/R had to withdraw from Nationals. But for C/S and D/S etc. if these other pairs don't step up and perform their best at Nationals they have no excuses, The opportunity is there to shine a year before the Olympics.

[haribobo]

Have Caitlin and Rockne ever tried out? I'm sure its been discussed at some point here. Or is this Y/R pairing pretty solid/legit?

[ioana]

Have Caitlin and Rockne ever tried out? I'm sure its been discussed at some point here. Or is this Y/R pairing pretty solid/legit?

I think she might be too big for him at 5ft2 or 5ft3. Rockne's 5ft9, so while this could work, it will take some doing with the lifts.

[Jenifer]

There are actually a number of plausible scenarios in which the USA could qualify a single team for the Olympics but still earn two spots for for worlds. Remember that only the first sixteen slots are assigned to countries through the previous world championships.

Here's an example of a result that would leave the USA out of an Oly berth:

1. V/T RUS
2. S/S GER
3. P/T CHN
4. B/L RUS
5. D/R CAN
6. K/S RUS
7. MT/M CAN
8. B/H ITA
9. J/C FRA
10. P/Z CHN
11. H/W GER
12. USA team 1
13. USA team 2

In this scenario, Russia, Germany, China, and Canada would each qualify 3 teams, with Italy and France each qualifying 2, for a total of 16, taking up all of the berths up for grabs at worlds. The USA could then qualify only one team through the Fall qualifying event. A slightly more plausible scenario would see an American team finish in 11th place ahead of Germany #2 (either H/W or V/VC). In that case, the USA would take only the 16th and last qualifying spot. Of course, it's all possible that Italy or France could wind up the odd country out, or that Canada or China might fail to qualify three teams, etc. But a top-12 finish won't actually guarantee team USA one spot at the Olys, let alone two.

[Sylvia]

That was an educational post - thanks, Jenifer! Maybe we should have a separate thread re. Pairs qualifying scenarios (by country) for the 2014 Olympics?

[Whitneyskates]

Have there been any updates on John? I know they're out of Nationals, but have they also rules out Worlds as well?