Who has the best chance of beating Yu na Kim at the 2013 worlds?

[Jammers]

IIRC, the only time she botched the 3-3 in the SP at Worlds was in 2011 and she still placed 1st. The two times she hit the 3-3 but messed something else up, she was down in 5th (2008) or out of the final group (2010). So go figure.

I agree, she ain't dropping it from the SP. She's been including a 3-3 in the SP her entire senior career and she doesn't seem like the type to play it safe even though most of her competitors are attempting easier jumps.

And that's why Yuna is a legend and the other skaters are not. She's not playing it safe.

[FunnyBut]

First of all, I love the programs that Carolina, Mao and Ashley are coming up with, I do think we're getting some extra artistry, intracacy, and performance level in exchange for the the somewhat lesser jump content. I thought Worlds was to be a close competition between these three and I didn't think I missed the lesser jump content.

But then YuNa debuted her programs, and I was reminded just how easy she made 3z-3t and 3F look, huge jumps with great flow and correct edges, effortlessly executed in SP and LP. I still think at this point Carolina/Mao/Ashley have more developed programs, more tailored to their particular music choices, and nuanced in the interpretation. But YuNa clearly still has everything that made her great...flowing edges, great flexibility, great speed and carriage, coverage of the rink. Her PCS will be great despite having less 'special' programs, her jumps are in a class by itself.
The others, despite wonderful programs, will have to rely on her mistakes if they want to win. Yuna had intentionally done easier spins at NRW, so that's some points she left on the table she'll likely take back by Worlds. I don't think it'd be so easy for Caro to add multiple lutzes/flips, for Mao to have lutzes/3axels or for Ashley to add 3-3s, and if they did, certainly not with the surety, consistency and quality of Yuna. Younger skaters like Liza, Gracie and Julia have the jumps, but they are miles away from Yuna in presentation, and deservedly should get much lower PCS.

After seeing NRW, I'm convinced it's YuNa's Worlds to lose. It's like she took us all back Vancouver 2010.

[olympic]

^ I think it's a little early to assert that Yu Na is in '09 - '10 form. While I think she is the favorite for a 2nd World title, I don't think that she's the sequined steamroller she was at Vancouver. Mao and Ashley are closer to her points-wise than Mao and Joannie were leading up to the 2010 Olympics.

[FunnyBut]

Oh, I agree with you, like Yuna said, she's at 80%. But Mao isn't at 100% either, she had 3 triple axels in Vancouver, now she had neither 3A or any 3-3s. I don't think her improved artistry can make up for that, because Yuna can rack up the big PCS too. Carolina yet to prove she can deliver great skates with substantial jump content. I really admire all the improvements Ashley has made, but neither her skating skills or her jumps are at Yuna's level. So I still think this is YuNa's to lose.

[briancoogaert]

But Mao isn't at 100% either, she had 3 triple axels in Vancouver, now she had neither 3A or any 3-3s.

But do you think Mao can have her 3A and 3-3s back in competition ? (serious question !)

[olympic]

^ Mao will do very well but w/o a 3x or 3-3's, I doubt she'll beat Yu Na if Yu Na is on.

[FunnyBut]

But do you think Mao can have her 3A and 3-3s back in competition ? (serious question !)

No. Her jump content has been regressing, unfortunately, and she needs a lenient caller on her side. On the plus side, they have been giving her some greatly deserved +GOE on her footwork.

[NadineWhite]

Carolina Kostner (just saw her "Bolero" the other day).

Never thought I'd say this, but imho the only one that can compete head on with Yuna Kim is Caro, jump for jump, move for move, but most importantly the *intangible*.

Jmho.

[ks777]

Shizuka Arakawa

[Vash01]

Carolina Kostner (just saw her "Bolero" the other day).

Never thought I'd say this, but imho the only one that can compete head on with Yuna Kim is Caro, jump for jump, move for move, but most importantly the *intangible*.

Jmho.

Carolina's jumps were far from perfect in that program. She did not land the 3Lz, and struggled with majority of her jumps. I don't see how she can beat Yu na based on that. If she improves and gets at least a 3Lz-2t combination, and lands most of her jumps, she may have a chance.

At this point I really don't think Mao can beat Yu na unless she gets her 3A back, and continues to improve her other jumps.

[olympic]

Does everyone feel that the run for the Worlds podium (at this point) will be a race among Yu Na, Mao, Ashley and Carolina??

[judgejudy27]

Does everyone feel that the run for the Worlds podium (at this point) will be a race among Yu Na, Mao, Ashley and Carolina??

Pretty much, but Ashley is the long shot of those 4 right now IMHO. I still have a feeling Ashley will get a medal though, atleast one of the 3 others (more likely Kostner or Asada) will have enough problems, and she will have found a way through determination to have improved enough since the fall (upping spin levels or something else) to capatilize. I dont think she is a mortal lock but will be surprised if Kim doesnt win. I dont think Wagner can win this year, Asada and Kostner are the other two with an outside of winning and beating Kim. I dont think Wagner can beat Kim this year, even if Kim makes mistakes. Suzuki is the only other contender, but I see her a real long shot, only 20% of the podium this time. The Russians cant medal this year, they can only shoot for top 5, and set themselves up to challenge for an Olympic medal with sufficient improvement next year. Same as Gold, same as Osmond, although they would have a much harder time even reaching top 5.

[olympic]

Pretty much, but Ashley is the long shot of those 4 right now IMHO. I still have a feeling Ashley will get a medal though, atleast one of the 3 others (more likely Kostner or Asada) will have enough problems, and she will have found a way through determination to have improved enough since the fall (upping spin levels or something else) to capatilize. I dont think she is a mortal lock but will be surprised if Kim doesnt win. I dont think Wagner can win this year, Asada and Kostner are the other two with an outside of winning and beating Kim. I dont think Wagner can beat Kim this year, even if Kim makes mistakes. Suzuki is the only other contender, but I see her a real long shot, only 20% of the podium this time. The Russians cant medal this year, they can only shoot for top 5, and set themselves up to challenge for an Olympic medal with sufficient improvement next year. Same as Gold, same as Osmond, although they would have a much harder time even reaching top 5.

Thanks for the response. Pretty much how I see it.

Of the four top ladies I mentioned, I think Carolina is the one most likely to splat. I think Akiko is hindered by being the #2 JPN lady right now and I don't see the judges putting her ahead of a clean Ashley. Either Kiira or one of the Russian gals will most likely be final group material

[judgejudy27]

I also think if Ando comes back next season in good shape and wanting to go to the Olympics, while she wont get her former stature back, she will be given Japanese #2 status, as the back up plan for a possible bronze if Mao their #1 hope falters. In the event that happens I could see the Japanese sending Murakami to the Olympics for experience, and leaving Suzuki at home entirely. I actually like Suzuki and her skating, and some thought I was bashing her when I said there is no way the Japanese want her to be their #1, but I was just being a realist. They had every opportunity to start giving her #1 backing with all that she has done, and all the others have been floundering or absent the last 2 years and they still havent done it. Even at Worlds when Mao bombed she was not given the boost in scores a #1 Japanese would get, which cost her atleast the silver. They were always holding out for one of Asada, Ando, or Murakami to start skating better. This year Mao is only getting 4 ratified triples a program at best, sometimes not even that, but for the JSF that is apparently good enough to get firm #1 support again and encourage her to do better, they clearly were desperate for anyone but Suzuki as their #1.

[olympic]

^Isn't Akiko taking it season-by-season? I mean, she hasn't even as of now committed to Sochi and I think she's close to Butyrskaya's age during the '99 - '02 quadrennial.

[judgejudy27]

Well being honest I think 85% most likely Ando doesnt come back at all or doesnt come back in good enough form to be competitive, and in that case Akiko is probably fine staying as their #2 (or dropping to #3 behind Murakami). Just saying that in the unlikely event Ando comes back quite stronly she will be given their #2 skater status immediately, and Akiko could easily find herself off the team as they would probably look to groom some kind of future hopeful by sending them as their #3 in that case.

[Vash01]

Well being honest I think 85% most likely Ando doesnt come back at all or doesnt come back in good enough form to be competitive, and in that case Akiko is probably fine staying as their #2 (or dropping to #3 behind Murakami). Just saying that in the unlikely event Ando comes back quite stronly she will be given their #2 skater status immediately, and Akiko could easily find herself off the team as they would probably look to groom some kind of future hopeful by sending them as their #3 in that case.

I tend to agree with this (about Ando). She seems to have disappeared, and she was not that strong (overall) to begin with. Mao is no longer what she was in 2010. Right now I just don't see any strong Japanese ladies beyond Mao and Akiko. At one time their ladies field appeared so deep. Murakami is not that strong; may be she could develop but can she challenge the young Russians, Americans and Canada's new hope Kaetlyn? I am only looking at 2014-2016.

[leafygreens]

I did not see Yuna's recent competition. Does anyone who did think that she was scored appropriately? After reading she had a "mistake-filled program" I'm wondering if that is worth 200+ points.

If the scoring was truly unfair, then nobody is going to beat her because she is viewed as a 200+ skater even with mistakes.

[Sylvia]

Kim had these jump mistakes in her FS: 1A+1T+1Lo and 3S+2T(fall). Korean TV broadcast video of her FS: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rw_pRAcTCmg
Her SP: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQdr3fb2CXc

Re-posting from another thread...

Opining on NRW Trophy: Kim's comeback, fairly scored? An analysis:
http://www.examiner.com/article/opin...-fairly-scored

[dawnie]

I did not see Yuna's recent competition. Does anyone who did think that she was scored appropriately? After reading she had a "mistake-filled program" I'm wondering if that is worth 200+ points.

If the scoring was truly unfair, then nobody is going to beat her because she is viewed as a 200+ skater even with mistakes.

It wasn't "filled" with mistakes. She fell on a double toe and singled the 2axel/2toe/2loop combination but she still landed 6 triples with a 3 lutz-3 toe combination in both SP and LP.
I'd say her NRW total score was just about right.