Who will win Mens GPF?

[spikydurian]

The remaining 2 cant beat Chan even if Chan sits on the ice for the whole program.

I love your usual unfailing optimism of Chan. Chan should be happy that people like you think that he can win sitting on the ice. So long my favourites win, who cares.
Go Chan go! Go Kozu go! Go Fernandez go!

[VarBar]

Actually, Chan get 10.08 from GOE in his World 2011 SP. Hanyu's record breaking SPs have scored less than 10 points of GOE each time - his WRs come from the 10% bonus (which Chan didn't have).

Not sure Chan's naysayers care for this level of detail. I'm thinking if they were really interested, they would go to read the judges' protocols themselves and compare GOEs before coming here to post.

This competition should be between Patrick and Yuzuru. I would give the SP to Hanyu - 95 points is hard to beat even for Chan - and the LP to Chan. Patrick may not be one of the most consistent jumpers ever but Yuzuru hasn't proven to be one either, he fell on both of his quads in the free skate at Skate America and I can't blame those mistakes on his running out of steam in the second half of the program due to his stamina issues.

[NMURA]

In this sport, THE favorites generally receive generous scores. Chan's case of 2011 worlds is typical. I have a feeling that Hanyu is THE favorite in the judges' eyes. Probably Chan(COR) can't beat Hanyu(NHK). In fact, I suspect Hanyu's score was adjusted (lowered) so that he can put pressure on Chan at GPF. If Hanyu takes the lead after SP (as expected), Chan won't be given PCS as high as 92. Even Takahashi's PCS was "held down" before Hanyu's skate.

[Proustable]

In this sport, THE favorites generally receive generous scores. Chan's case of 2011 worlds is typical. I have a feeling that Hanyu is THE favorite in the judges' eyes. Probably Chan(COR) can't beat Hanyu(NHK). In fact, I suspect Hanyu's score was adjusted (lowered) so that he can put pressure on Chan at GPF. If Hanyu takes the lead after SP (as expected), Chan won't be given PCS as high as 92. Even Takahashi's PCS was "held down" before Hanyu's skate.

It will be interesting to see if your assertion will play out. I agree that Hanyu's emerging into the GPF as the favourite due to his huge SP scores. Indeed, a five fall Hanyu (over his four programs) has scored within one point of a one fall Chan (over his four programs)!!!! That's insane.

[judgejudy27]

Chan has had only one fall but he has had alot of other problems, while Hanyu's only mistakes were the falls. It is ironic one would call that insane though as usually it is Chan who with 5 falls would gain more points than someone else with 1, so it is funny to see the roles reversing for once in a sense, but will be interesting to see them now competing head to head, and Takahashi and Fernandez thrown in as well.

[lala]

Chan will win, but I would like to see Dai's victory

[Proustable]

Chan has had only one fall but he has had alot of other problems, while Hanyu's only mistakes were the falls. It is ironic one would call that insane though as usually it is Chan who with 5 falls would gain more points than someone else with 1, so it is funny to see the roles reversing for once in a sense, but will be interesting to see them now competing head to head, and Takahashi and Fernandez thrown in as well.

Well the multifall meme has been mentioned for Chan so many times that I thought it would be worthwhile to throw out there. People have been complaining about Chan's falls forever, so I don't understand why Hanyu's falls get a free pass (to a certain extent). It's still notable, imo. I agree, with these four in the same competition, the judging will be interesting,

[professordeb]

Not sure Chan's naysayers care for this level of detail. I'm thinking if they were really interested, they would go to read the judges' protocols themselves and compare GOEs before coming here to post.

This competition should be between Patrick and Yuzuru. I would give the SP to Hanyu - 95 points is hard to beat even for Chan - and the LP to Chan. Patrick may not be one of the most consistent jumpers ever but Yuzuru hasn't proven to be one either, he fell on both of his quads in the free skate at Skate America and I can't blame those mistakes on his running out of steam in the second half of the program due to his stamina issues.

I venture to say that most of Chan's naysayers can't be bothered to look at the protocols.

I played with Chan's numbers a bit cause he made some major "mistakes" in both his comps and left a lot of points on the table. Although he scored better overall at COR, there was still plenty of room for improvement.

For instance, he did a 3T-3T @ SC and earned a 9.1, did a 4T-1T @ COR and got 7.7 because of the -3GOE. His CCSp was a 4 at SC but a 3 at COR; StSq a 4 @ SC but a 3 at COR. His PCS were 77.44 @ SC and 85.44 @ COR and that's just his short.

Now that he has had time to put more mileage on his programs, I would expect higher marks for him. Should he "clean" things up he could quite probably hit over 50 in TES and I would think that his PCS would also rise. The difference in PCS from SC to COR was 8 points but I don't know if Chan can get over 9 on everything in PCS so I just assigned 45 points to PCS. That would give him ball park of 95 for the short so I can see him giving Hanya a run in the short.

Regardless, I think the men will be interesting to watch.

[rayhaneh]

I venture to say that most of Chan's naysayers can't be bothered to look at the protocols.

I played with Chan's numbers a bit cause he made some major "mistakes" in both his comps and left a lot of points on the table. Although he scored better overall at COR, there was still plenty of room for improvement.

For instance, he did a 3T-3T @ SC and earned a 9.1, did a 4T-1T @ COR and got 7.7 because of the -3GOE. His CCSp was a 4 at SC but a 3 at COR; StSq a 4 @ SC but a 3 at COR. His PCS were 77.44 @ SC and 85.44 @ COR and that's just his short.

Now that he has had time to put more mileage on his programs, I would expect higher marks for him. Should he "clean" things up he could quite probably hit over 50 in TES and I would think that his PCS would also rise. The difference in PCS from SC to COR was 8 points but I don't know if Chan can get over 9 on everything in PCS so I just assigned 45 points to PCS. That would give him ball park of 95 for the short so I can see him giving Hanya a run in the short.

Regardless, I think the men will be interesting to watch.

I was just wondering what you called a Chan naysayer? Someone who just didn't vote Chan in the poll above or someone who thinks Chan has no chance, or something else? I am not being sarcastic I was just really wondering because on the thread I don't see a lot of people saying Chan doesn't have a chance to win - actually a lot of people think he will win

Regarding the "terror" of Hanyu's 95+ scores and who could challenge him in the SP if he is in a good day, there's actually a pretty easy way to figure this one out. There are only five men who ever got 90+, three of which will be in the final (Hanyu, Chan, Takahashi). I'd argue that the other three either don't have a program to challenge that 90 mark (Fernandez is still too low PC-wise, Machida hasn't tried the quad in the SP yet and I am not sure it's even in his interest to try at GPF) or do but it's clear they haven't had the favor of the judges so far (Kozuka)

Now Chan and Takahashi had 90+ scores before the new bonus in the 2nd half of the program, so they could close the gap on Hanyu and get in pretty much the same ballpark. In fact, both Chan's CoR score and Takahashi's NHK's score indicate that if they skate their program cleanly, with good GOE that approach that of Hanyu, they both have a decent shot at beating that record because they both can - and should, if they skate clean - get higher PCs than Hanyu (whether the judges will see it that way is another question entirely since Hanyu's been clearly overmarked in PCs in both SA and NHK in the SP)

If all three get to skate their program clean, my feeling is that going against both Hanyu and Chan in a SP, Takahashi has almost no chance to receive high enough components because recent history shows that they're likely to be held back to make way for either Hanyu (NHK) or Chan (pretty much all of last season - WTT being an exception but then the circumstances were pretty exceptional), or both. His only chance would probably be to skate after them and to finally succeed in putting a quad-triple combination if the other two don't, because that would force the judges to think twice about it

That leaves really Hanyu and Chan, and it will be interesting to see how they'll be noted PC-wise as they go head to head. Although I have a personal preference for Hanyu between those two, I think Chan has a markedly better program this year which should decide things in his favor should they both skate at the same level of performance - but again, the signals that the judges have been sending are a bit confusing so you never know how this will turn out

[PCFan]

Chan has had only one fall but he has had alot of other problems, while Hanyu's only mistakes were the falls. It is ironic one would call that insane though as usually it is Chan who with 5 falls would gain more points than someone else with 1, so it is funny to see the roles reversing for once in a sense, but will be interesting to see them now competing head to head, and Takahashi and Fernandez thrown in as well.

For clarification, while Patrick had some issues, Hanyu's problems were not just limited to the 5 falls; he popped a jump, stepped out of another and had two wonky spins, one resulting in a fall. But the most glaring problem was the drastic drop off in speed in the second half of the FS; where he appeared to be going through the motions to run out the clock. So it is a bit disingenuous of you to say Hanyu ONLY had 5 falls. I do recognize Hanyu has asthma and hope he can overcome it, but it does not change the experience I had as a viewer watching the last two minutes of his FS.

As for GPF, I wish all the skaters the best and hope they all reach new highs! As for Patrick, I hope he out highs their highs.

[pinky166]

Hanyu first, Kozuka second, then Chan and Takahashi will both skate sloppily as per usual and come in 3rd and 4th. Chan's score at COR for that FS with all those doubles was quite inflated, IMO. Yeah, I get he didn't splat all over the place but apart from the quads, the rest of his jump content was like novice men level

[DaiKozOda]

I would really love to see Dai run away with the gold medal. Either him or Kozuka. In the end Hanyu or Chan will probably take it so my vote goes to Hanyu.

[rayhaneh]

I would really love to see Dai run away with the gold medal. Either him or Kozuka. In the end Hanyu or Chan will probably take it so my vote goes to Hanyu.

I think we should do another pole: who would you love to see winning - I have the feeling things would start to look a bit different

[spikydurian]

Hmmm... all the debate on Hanyu vs Chan? Would it be interesting if Machida wins gold? Strange things have happened in this GP season.

[professordeb]

I was just wondering what you called a Chan naysayer? Someone who just didn't vote Chan in the poll above or someone who thinks Chan has no chance, or something else? I am not being sarcastic I was just really wondering because on the thread I don't see a lot of people saying Chan doesn't have a chance to win - actually a lot of people think he will win

snip...

I was replying to a response by VarBar who initially said

Not sure Chan's naysayers care for this level of detail. I'm thinking if they were really interested, they would go to read the judges' protocols themselves and compare GOEs before coming here to post...

I thought I would go into some detail for those who can't be bothered to look at the protocols aka "the naysayers". It really had nothing to do with how anyone may have voted in the poll or what people had been saying in the posts for this topic. It was more to do with the tone of things on this board in general when it comes to Chan. Hopefully that makes sense?

[VarBar]

Hanyu first, Kozuka second, then Chan and Takahashi will both skate sloppily as per usual and come in 3rd and 4th.

Chan and Takahashi will both skate sloppily as per usual and will get beat by Hanyu and Kozuka who will skate cleanly and accurately as per usual.

What are some people watching?

[spikydurian]

the rest of his jump content was like novice men level

You are always so right and impartial. Indeed any novice can jump better than Chan.

[pinky166]

You are always so right and impartial. Indeed any novice can jump better than Chan.

I was more referring to the 2a, 2lo, and 3lz-1/2 lo-2s....Nathan Chen and Vincent Zhou displayed more content when they won their Novice titles at Nationals .

Of course, he also did a 4-3 and another 4t, so I get the argument is kind of dumb. It's just to me, that program was divided into 2 distinct parts - the mesmerizing first minute or so, and the distracted pop-filled remaining 3. Just my 2 cents.

And Kozuka has been consistent this season. Yuzuru not as much but both his SP scores this season have been huge, and I don't think Chan will be able to top that at this point in the season, so it will come down to the FS, and Hanyu has more difficult content and better spins, plus he usually rotates everything even if he falls. Chan is prone to pops recently and given his history of falling, I wouldn't count that out either. If Hanyu skates clean/near clean and Chan skates like he usually does, I think Hanyu will beat him, and a clean Kozuka might too.

Machida IMO has no chance of winning where he attempts no quad in the SP. Plus his PCS are much lower than Patrick and Dai, and even an "on" Hanyu or Kozuka. Fernandez's PCS seem to be very volatile...low 7s one competition then mid 8s the next. I love his SP but wish he'd dump the Chaplin FS, does anyone else feel the same way? Idk if its the music cuts being a bit slow and hokey, or the costume, or what, but I just feel like Fernandez is deserving of a better program.

[t.mann]

Sacre bleu in a similar way re Hanyu when he's on. But Hanyu's sp, while he has amazing jumps and he performs it extremely well, I find his sp a bit annoying because to me he's trying to copy Dai's styling in Blues for Klook. Forget about the fact, the judges are "quad fodder" when it comes to Mr. Hanyu -- he deserves high scores, but 95 even in a well-executed sp is ridiculous for a skater who is still developing, and especially for one who clearly lacks stamina, endurance and focus in his free programs.

Agree.

And I don't like judges are trying to make Chan's score rival(or false rival) hastily.
Although I think Hanyu is an OGM(not 2014, but 2018 ) material.

[Proustable]

I was more referring to the 2a, 2lo, and 3lz-1/2 lo-2s....Nathan Chen and Vincent Zhou displayed more content when they won their Novice titles at Nationals .

Of course, he also did a 4-3 and another 4t, so I get the argument is kind of dumb. It's just to me, that program was divided into 2 distinct parts - the mesmerizing first minute or so, and the distracted pop-filled remaining 3. Just my 2 cents.

Just to clarify, Nathan Chen and Vincent Zhou's worst three jump (as in lowest base value) passes at US Nationals were what exactly

And Kozuka has been consistent this season. Yuzuru not as much but both his SP scores this season have been huge, and I don't think Chan will be able to top that at this point in the season, so it will come down to the FS, and Hanyu has more difficult content and better spins, plus he usually rotates everything even if he falls. Chan is prone to pops recently and given his history of falling, I wouldn't count that out either. If Hanyu skates clean/near clean and Chan skates like he usually does, I think Hanyu will beat him, and a clean Kozuka might too.

Kozuka had three jumps UR'd in his CoR FS and has fallen more than Chan in the GP circuit. As has Hanyu. I agree that if Hanyu skates clean and Chan skates like he did at his two events, Hanyu wins. I'd argue that if Hanyu skates like he did at his two events, it's certainly not a rout as you suggest.

Anyway, I'd argue that pinky's comment is a pitch perfect example of what a Chan naysayer postulates.