Who will win Mens GPF?

[pinky166]

I actually like Chan's skating, and if he skates clean, I think he probably should win. I just take issue with his scores and placements when he makes loads of mistakes. A score like what he got at COR should be reserved for a phenomenal skate by a great skater, Chan is a great skater sure, but that was not a phenomenal skate, not with all those doubles. His GOE also confuses me, when the quads and 3a work, those jumps deserve +2s yes, but the rest of his jumps don't seem that spectacular to me, and while he's a good spinner, he's not a phenomenal one like his GOEs would suggest. For example, Hanyu IS a phenomenal spinner but his scores don't reflect that as his GOEs are about the same as Chan's, who is merely one of the better spinners. Plus others are ambitious content, sure Patrick tries 2 quads, but only one 3a which he usually ends up doubling, others are trying 2 quads and two 3as, or Javi 3 quads and one 3a. It just seems like Patrick's advantage over the others should be eaten up more quickly by mistakes than results would indicate.

[spikydurian]

I actually like Chan's skating, and if he skates clean, I think he probably should win.

Oh poor me, if I can only like skaters who skate clean, then I will have no favourites because NONE of my favourite skaters have skated 'clean' in all their competitions.

[Proustable]

Just so we're clear, pinky, I voted for Hanyu. I just take issue with you taking Chan to task for his inconsistent skating when you gave Hanyu and Kozuka a free ride - you can't argue Hanyu's the representative for "clean" skating when he's fallen on three jumps, a spin and a choreo sequence (you did take Takahashi to task as well, so it's not as if it was just a dismissal of Chan).

[VarBar]

Anyway, I'd argue that pinky's comment is a pitch perfect example of what a Chan naysayer postulates.

Yes indeed. And when the facts clearly contradict them, they try to pass their opinions for facts such as "His jumps don't seem that spectacular to ME = he is definitely held up on the GOEs."

How about "Why do the judges always give the highest mark to Chan on SS? Skater X's skating skills are so much more exciting than Chan's. Chan is overscored even on SS."

Just trying to help.

[pinky166]

Yes indeed. And when the facts clearly contradict them, they try to pass their opinions for facts such as "His jumps don't seem that spectacular to ME = he is definitely held up on the GOEs."

How about "Why do the judges always give the highest mark to Chan on SS? Skater X's skating skills are so much more exciting than Chan's. Chan is overscored even on SS."

Just trying to help.

I think Chan's SS marks are fair and better than the rest of the field. He also has very difficult transitions in his programs. It's the other components I feel he gets held up in, as those are the ones that can really vary with an "off" performance, but for Chan, they don't really, or the variance is from incredibly high to very, very high, even if he splats all over this place.

Kozuka last season was very inconsistent, or consistently disappointing, I will admit that. But this season he seems to have found more consistency. Hanyu I know has had issues too. Basically what I was trying to say, is that I could see Kozuka or Hanyu skating clean here based on what they've done so far this season, whereas for Patrick I don't see that happening, just cause it hardly ever happens and this season there have been a lot of changes and he still appears to be in the "adjustment" phase. So if Hanyu or Kozuka skate clean and Chan skates like he normally does, I think those two *should* come out ahead. Or well, maybe I just expect Hanyu and Kozuka to skate cleaner than Chan (in my book doubling jumps doesn't constitute clean just FTR), and I don't think Chan should beat out those two if the difference in errors between them is moderate to large. Kozuka and Hanyu can get great PCS when they skate well, but like Fernandez those marks are very volatile depending on how they skate. While I think that's ok and warranted in some respects, it's more the consistency in which the judges do this that bothers me. Chan and Abbott get really high PCS regardless of how they skate, and often times it isn't very well, but other really good skaters like Hanyu, Kozuka, and Fernandez get harsh drops in PCS (up to like 10 points) for a rough skate.

[fscric]

Basically what I was trying to say, is that I could see Kozuka or Hanyu skating clean here based on what they've done so far this season, ... Or well, maybe I just expect Hanyu and Kozuka to skate cleaner than Chan (in my book doubling jumps doesn't constitute clean just FTR), and I don't think Chan should beat out those two if the difference in errors between them is moderate to large.

I have a hard time understanding your logic here. Hanyu hasn't skated a clean FS, and Kozuka's SA FS has an underrotation call (unless you only considers doubling jumps as unclean but underrotation is clean).

[judgejudy27]

I actually like Chan's skating, and if he skates clean, I think he probably should win. I just take issue with his scores and placements when he makes loads of mistakes. A score like what he got at COR should be reserved for a phenomenal skate by a great skater, Chan is a great skater sure, but that was not a phenomenal skate, not with all those doubles. His GOE also confuses me, when the quads and 3a work, those jumps deserve +2s yes, but the rest of his jumps don't seem that spectacular to me, and while he's a good spinner, he's not a phenomenal one like his GOEs would suggest. For example, Hanyu IS a phenomenal spinner but his scores don't reflect that as his GOEs are about the same as Chan's, who is merely one of the better spinners. Plus others are ambitious content, sure Patrick tries 2 quads, but only one 3a which he usually ends up doubling, others are trying 2 quads and two 3as, or Javi 3 quads and one 3a. It just seems like Patrick's advantage over the others should be eaten up more quickly by mistakes than results would indicate.

Very true, if one were to believe Chan's scores as being legitimate one would have to believe he is not merely the best mens skater ever, but the best ever in every single department of the sport- best quality jumps ever, best spins ever, best footwork ever, best skating skills ever (the last 2 the only ones that could plausibly be argued), best musical interpretation ever, best performer ever, most elegant and polished skater ever, more charismatic. Hence his 4 or 5 fall margins he has had the last 2 years over anyone else, and why despite being a bigger splatter than Sasha Cohen he has been almost unbeaten that whole time.

[Proustable]

Kozuka last season was very inconsistent, or consistently disappointing, I will admit that. But this season he seems to have found more consistency. Hanyu I know has had issues too. Basically what I was trying to say, is that I could see Kozuka or Hanyu skating clean here based on what they've done so far this season, whereas for Patrick I don't see that happening, just cause it hardly ever happens and this season there have been a lot of changes and he still appears to be in the "adjustment" phase. So if Hanyu or Kozuka skate clean and Chan skates like he normally does, I think those two *should* come out ahead. Or well, maybe I just expect Hanyu and Kozuka to skate cleaner than Chan (in my book doubling jumps doesn't constitute clean just FTR), and I don't think Chan should beat out those two if the difference in errors between them is moderate to large. Kozuka and Hanyu can get great PCS when they skate well, but like Fernandez those marks are very volatile depending on how they skate. While I think that's ok and warranted in some respects, it's more the consistency in which the judges do this that bothers me. Chan and Abbott get really high PCS regardless of how they skate, and often times it isn't very well, but other really good skaters like Hanyu, Kozuka, and Fernandez get harsh drops in PCS (up to like 10 points) for a rough skate.

And had you said this, I wouldn't have said anything. Well articulated.

[pinky166]

I have a hard time understanding your logic here. Hanyu hasn't skated a clean FS, and Kozuka's SA FS has an underrotation call (unless you only considers doubling jumps as unclean but underrotation is clean).

I realize this. I just could see one or both of them pulling out a clean or almost clean FS at the GPF, and for Chan, I think if that is going to happen at all this season, it won't be until later, like 4CC or Worlds. It's more the upward ascent, Kozuka and Hanyu have both shown the ability to skate really well early in the season before, whereas Patrick usually builds over the season. For this season especially, with all the changes and his quad not as consistent as usual, I doubt he'll skate clean here, hence why I think he is not the run away winner. Though of course if he does manage to skate clean, he likely will win, by a large margin unless the other guys skate out of their skin as well.

[NMURA]

It's not meaningful to argue how Chan is "best" or "good". Since it's rather obvious that the judges are favoring Hanyu in this season, Chan can't afford many mistakes. IMO, there are only two past competitions that Chan can possibly beat Hanyu(NHK). 2011 worlds and 2012 four continents. I'm confident that anything other than those are not enough. If Hanyu stands on his feet to the last of FS, probably Chan needs to skate better than 2012 four continents.

[professordeb]

Chan doubles his jumps and *some* people say "not clean, not clean". Judges disagree and give him positive GOE for a lower based jump.
Chan puts a hand down and *some* people say "not clean, overmarked" even though the judges dinged him for the "mistake".
Chan falls and *some* people say "not clean, overmarked, reduce those PCS marks" even though the rest of his program may have been sparkling clean.

However, let another skater do any of the above and they get a free pass by *some* who give reasons why deductions *shouldn't* be applied to said skater.

Hmmmm.

Chan gets better as the season goes on -- no disagreement there. However, if you take a look at what he is capable of scoring should he go clean, I still think he comes out on top.

Here's how he's done thus far and what he is capable of scoring

SC -- Short TES: 39.81 PCS: 37.63 TOT: 77.44	CoR -- Short TES: 41.62 PCS: 43.82 TOT: 85.44	Possible -- Short TES: 51.32 PCS: 46.25 TOT: 97.57
SC -- Free TES: 75.13 PCS: 86.78 FALL -1 TOT: 160.91	CoR -- Free TES: 84.21 PCS: 92.70 TOT: 176.91	Possible -- Free TES: 96.69 PCS: 93.14 TOT: 189.83
Skate Canada Total 238.35	CoR TOTAL 262.35	POSSIBLE TOTAL 287.40

So between SC and CoR he increased his short by 8, his free by 16 and his overall total by 24 and he still left a bunch of points on the table at CoR. In the short alone he lost a bunch with his 4T/1T giving him a lower base AND a GOE of -3; he got a level 3 in three elements.
In his free, two of his jumps ended up being doubles instead of triples and considering they came in the second half of his program, he left over 11 possible points there (if I read the chart correctly -- feel free to tell me if I messed up again ).

Will Chan skate cleanly at the GPF? Difficult to say cause I would think he's aiming to peak at World's. However, given how much he left on the table at CoR and believing that he is likely to have better skates at the GPF (more mileage on his programs), I think it would be fair to say his TES & PCS will likely see an increase. Do I think that he'll hit those numbers I posted as possible -- not likely at the GPF but maybe World's. All things considered, I still think Chan is the skater to beat in this comp.

[NMURA]

Chan has no clean SP after 2011 worlds (save Chanadian nationals), doesn't he? He tends to skate well when he knows the judges are on his side and feels no pressure. I guess he had NO pressure at COR even before the SP. He usually skates poorly in Japan because he knows he's not the favorite there (both judges and audiences). In Sochi... let's see how he handles his nerves after Hanyu's SP. And if the judges are actually favoring Hanyu as I predict, Chan can't expect very generous PCS before Hanyu's FS. That is one thing the judges have learned at SA.

[pinky166]

3 of Chan's jumps ended up becoming doubles at COR, the loop, the axel, and the sal in combo. The 3-jump combo is intended to end with a 3s not a 2s. That gives him more points he could make up, but also contributes to why I feel he was overmarked at COR. He gave up a lot of points with those 3 doubles, and his score was still massive.

[Proustable]

Chan has no clean SP after 2011 worlds (save Chanadian nationals), doesn't he? He tends to skate well when he knows the judges are on his side and feels no pressure. I guess he had NO pressure at COR even before the SP. He usually skates poorly in Japan because he knows he's not the favorite there (both judges and audiences). In Sochi... let's see how he handles his nerves after Hanyu's SP. And if the judges are actually favoring Hanyu as I predict, Chan can't expect very generous PCS before Hanyu's FS. That is one thing the judges have learned at SA.

Wouldn't the judges have been more on his side at Skate Canada 2012 as opposed to CoR? Certainly the audience would be more on his side in Canada than Russia.

[fscric]

Proustable, so right! Isn't it quite comical to say Patrick had NO pressure at COR when he was second in SC and if he didn't skate well enough he's in danger of not qualifying for GPF?! Besides, I've always read on the forum that Patrick is not so well received in Russia so how did anyone come to the conclusion that Patrick felt no pressure at COR is beyond me.

Anyway, if the judges are so ready to crown Hanyu the winner, so be it, like Patrick said, it's just figure skating, it's not the end of the world.

[NMURA]

Wouldn't the judges have been more on his side at Skate Canada 2012 as opposed to CoR? Certainly the audience would be more on his side in Canada than Russia.

No doubt chan had MORE pressure at SC. Fernandez scored 85+ before Chan. While the score to beat was only 76 at COR.

[Proustable]

NMURA, you operate at a logical level far removed from my own.

[The Accordion]

I just DON'T KNOW how to answer this poll! So instead I will ask questions

Will Chan follow his usual curve of getting better as the season goes at a similar rate? Or will the changes in choreographers and coach OR having 2 new programs change that curve? Are people right about his not having a technical coach taking its toll - and therefore he will continue to have issues technically? Or is he right to work on his artistry first and foremost and spend some time with technical coaching - and things will be falling into place by the GPF?

Will Hanyu believe in the new Hanyu who can perform well in both portions of the competition? And if he does - how much effect will his asthma / endurance issues have? Will his crazy short take him far enough ahead that the others don't catch him in the long even if he doesn't win it:? Will he still get the same sky high marks next to the World's top men?

Will Fernandez be Skate Canada Fernandez - or will he be NHK Fernandez? Will he doubt himself because of his last competition or will the pressure be off because of it? Will the judges keep his PCS down even if he does have a stellar competition?

Will Machida take advantage of the pressure/ focus being on everyone else and sneak in as the dark horse?

Will the judges up the PCS for Kozuka to where so many think they should be? Even if the judges are willing - will he skate to his potential or hold back?

How will Takahashi's quads be? Will his programs have grown into the performance wonders that Takahashi programs can be? If so - will the judges see that and reward them accordingly? Will his jump landings be a bit eeked out? If so - will the judges recognize that in their GOE?

With all these men together - where will all their PCS fall with the judges seeing them all back to back? Will the judges go with old patterns/perceptions or will what they see on the ice make a new world of PCS? Somewhere in between?

How will everyone handle the pressure? If they all make mistakes will Chan's PCS hold him up? Will Hanyu's short hold him up?

Inquiring minds want to know. And the prediction contest is a beast!

[bardtoob]

I prefer Chan or Fernandez, but I think it is Hanyu's to loose because he is skating very well and consistently executes his content.

[spikydurian]

NMURA, you operate at a logical level far removed from my own.

I just DON'T KNOW how to answer this poll! So instead I will ask questions ......

Predictions are not absolute. There are too many variables involved. We can only GUESS given present circumstances. Anyway, personally, I never take polls seriously .. it is always in the name of fun when I participate.