U.S. Ladies [#6]: "Swaggering with the S'Wagner" et al. into 2013

[Sylvia]

She reportedly has withdrawn from tomorrow's Gala exhibition.

^ Doesn't that mean Ashley is forfeiting her prize money?

According to this, http://www.coreperformance.com/knowl...-injuries.html, a hip pointer can take anywhere from 1-3 weeks to heal, so I wonder if/how much time she'll be taking off from training and if that'll affect her a bit for Nationals.

Wagner has a medical excuse for not performing in the Gala.

From the Team USA Saturday recap: http://skatingmagazineblog.com/2012/...dals-in-sochi/

Wagner showcased her tenacity as she continued her “Samson and Delilah” free skate following a hard fall on a double Axel and earned 115.49 points for the segment. She started out strong with a triple flip-double toe-double toe jump sequence that earned 9.30 points. Wagner would fall earlier in the program on a triple Salchow, but rebounded nicely with a pair of spins and two triple jumps before suffering the fall that required immediate ice on her left hip following her exit from the ice.

Despite the pain, Wagner went on to perform triple flip and her closing spin.

“I’m really proud of myself. I was able to pull myself together after a fall like that,” she said. “Going into the next jump, you’re pretty much terrified that you’re going to do that again. I knew I could either give the competition away or at that point I could continue to fight. I’m happy that I really pushed through.”

Wagner, who totaled 181.93 points for the week, doesn’t think she injured herself seriously.

“We’re going to see how it progresses for the rest of the weekend,” she said. “The team doctor said that I have a hip pointer. I don’t know what that is but I can tell you it hurts. We might be looking into getting X-rays later this week. For the most part, I think it’s one of those things where I got myself pretty good. But I’ll be fine by the time nationals comes around.”

[NadineWhite]

Copied & pasted from what I wrote in another part of the forum:




I just watched her SP & FS on youtube, and I'm proud of her!

To come back like that after two falls reminds me, *once again*, of Sasha Cohen, whom did the same thing at the 2006 Olympics. Here's hoping the comparisons keep coming, all the way up to the 2014 Olympics!

[olympic]

^ Doesn't that mean Ashley is forfeiting her prize money?

According to this, http://www.coreperformance.com/knowl...-injuries.html, a hip pointer can take anywhere from 1-3 weeks to heal, so I wonder if/how much time she'll be taking off from training and if that'll affect her a bit for Nationals.

Worst case scenario, she's off the ice until Christmas. Nationals is at the end of January. She is already well trained.

Ashley doesn't even have to win Nationals to continue on to Worlds, plus I think she probably has a 2-3 fall advantage over Gold, Nagasu and the rest anyway. One thing we might see is a strategic decision to dial back her performances at Nationals (no 3-3 or 2x-3t attempts) and do enough to win or like I said, make the team if she's feeling 'off'.

[Jarrett]

Worst case scenario, she's off the ice until Christmas. Nationals is at the end of January. She is already well trained.

Ashley doesn't even have to win Nationals to continue on to Worlds, plus I think she probably has a 2-3 fall advantage over Gold, Nagasu and the rest anyway. One thing we might see is a strategic decision to dial back her performances at Nationals (no 3-3 or 2x-3t attempts) and do enough to win or like I said, make the team if she's feeling 'off'.

Two to three fall advantage? I don't think so. In my opinion any falling will cause her to fall down the rankings. She will be fine with double footed landings here and there but I don't think the judges will look past multiple falls and still put her first.

[aftershocks]

It seems like there was something wrong with the ice at GPF comp or something. Anyway, I too think it's hard to be perfect all the time. Perhaps many of the skaters were thinking too much about this Sochi venue being the Olympic venue in a bit over a year from now.

Ashley definitely showed fight, especially after that last hard fall. On the salchow, the commentators noted that she seemed to rush into it too quickly and didn't check out properly either. On the second double-axel which is a difficult sequence coming right after the first double-axel, Ashley unfortunately did not have enough speed to gain the amount of amplitude needed to complete the rotations. I was worried for her after that hard fall when she didn't get up right away and it seemed as if she might stop. She sure did show fight, as well as how steady her physical and mental training has been. If Ash had skated like she did in both GPs this season, she would surely have won, since altho' Mao is exquisite, she's also beatable. Ashley did well to win silver with those two mistakes, but it was a splatty event overall. I guess you really have got to be focused because "splatting" seemingly might also be contagious. I certainly hope the Sochi ice (and the competition) is more up to par for the Olympics!

Wishing Ashley a speedy recovery from what I hope turns out to be only a bruise that will heal soon without any further complications. Perhaps Ash will have some down time this month to heal and enjoy the holidays with her family. I don't know if she was scheduled to perform in any more exhibitions prior to Nationals. If so, she may need to cancel. With Nicks at her side, surely he will guide Ashley in the best strategic way to proceed in order to be prepared for Nationals.

Christina was obviously tentative, but she also fought through both her performances. It was likely a good experience for her, and hopefully she will still gain a confidence boost for Nationals. I'm sure she wishes she'd performed better, because the judges were not gonna give her overly high scores in any case. Yet by doing better, you give yourself more of a chance should others falter. Still, Christina doesn't have rep or great exposure with international judges and she's young yet and still developing her presentation skills. Come Nationals, I hope Christina will be back to the better form and confidence she showed at the start of the season.

[chipso1]

Yes, better to make the mistakes here than at Nationals or Worlds - but is this just a fluke/anomaly, or the start of a downhill ride? Remember, Wagner now goes into Nationals off this rough skate, PLUS she's got a title there to defend. I'm having flashbacks to 2007 and what happened to Meissner that fall...great at her 2 events (like Wagner), near-disaster at GPF, falling 3 times- just about all thought that was out of her system- but then at 2008 Nationals she has 3 falls again (!) in the FS so you never really know.

Just have to hope Wagner is unaffected in the long-term by that fall, and there are no serious technical issues. Even if there aren't, Nationals is a lot of pressure.

You can't compare Meissner 2007 to Wagner 2012. Meissner was hardly "great" at her GP events that fall. She landed three clean triples and narrowly beat a struggling Ando at Skate America (she actually did lose the FS to Miki). At Trophee Bompard, she botched her combination in the SP and was 3rd in the FS behind both Asada & Wagner. She showed up to the GPF, fell three times in the FS, and finished last.

So far this season, Ashley put up two 127+ point free skates in a row, and has improved her SP score every time out so far. I think her GPF free skate was an anomaly and is probably not indicative of what we can expect from her this season. She's gone from Japan-Washington-France-Russia in two months and I'm sure that travel took a toll on her here. She's more confident and focused than ever this season (as witnessed by how she responded to her two falls here), so I wouldn't worry about her at Nationals. Kimmie had a lot more going on (i.e., major technique issues) that Ashley isn't dealing with.

[dinakt]

I am very impressed that Ashley showed so much fighting spirit.
She is one US athlete ( well, she and D/W) who can legitimately ask for a bye at Nationals if she needs it and get it with no controversy. She has proven herself 200% this season. Of course I hope it does not come to that and she is in good competition form come Nationals.

[smarts1]

It seems like there was something wrong with the ice at GPF comp or something. Anyway, I too think it's hard to be perfect all the time. Perhaps many of the skaters were thinking too much about this Sochi venue being the Olympic venue in a bit over a year from now.

Ashley definitely showed fight, especially after that last hard fall. On the salchow, the commentators noted that she seemed to rush into it too quickly and didn't check out properly either. On the second double-axel which is a difficult sequence coming right after the first double-axel, Ashley unfortunately did not have enough speed to gain the amount of amplitude needed to complete the rotations. I was worried for her after that hard fall when she didn't get up right away and it seemed as if she might stop. She sure did show fight, as well as how steady her physical and mental training has been. If Ash had skated like she did in both GPs this season, she would surely have won, since altho' Mao is exquisite, she's also beatable. Ashley did well to win silver with those two mistakes, but it was a splatty event overall. I guess you really have got to be focused because "splatting" seemingly might also be contagious. I certainly hope the Sochi ice (and the competition) is more up to par for the Olympics!

Wishing Ashley a speedy recovery from what I hope turns out to be only a bruise that will heal soon without any further complications. Perhaps Ash will have some down time this month to heal and enjoy the holidays with her family. I don't know if she was scheduled to perform in any more exhibitions prior to Nationals. If so, she may need to cancel. With Nicks at her side, surely he will guide Ashley in the best strategic way to proceed in order to be prepared for Nationals.

Christina was obviously tentative, but she also fought through both her performances. It was likely a good experience for her, and hopefully she will still gain a confidence boost for Nationals. I'm sure she wishes she'd performed better, because the judges were not gonna give her overly high scores in any case. Yet by doing better, you give yourself more of a chance should others falter. Still, Christina doesn't have rep or great exposure with international judges and she's young yet and still developing her presentation skills. Come Nationals, I hope Christina will be back to the better form and confidence she showed at the start of the season.

Yes, I noticed that also. Both Akiko and Ashley took very hard falls in their LPs and I don't think it's exactly so much a fault with their jumps than with the ice. This makes mem a little nervous because isn't this ice going to be the same ice the skaters are going to skate on in 2014?

[RD]

You can't compare Meissner 2007 to Wagner 2012. Meissner was hardly "great" at her GP events that fall. She landed three clean triples and narrowly beat a struggling Ando at Skate America (she actually did lose the FS to Miki). At Trophee Bompard, she botched her combination in the SP and was 3rd in the FS behind both Asada & Wagner. She showed up to the GPF, fell three times in the FS, and finished last.

I wasn't trying to compare the actual skates so much as the situation both find themselves in after the GPF. Defending a title and coming into nationals off a rough skate. Not necessarily easy to simply "shake off"...Meissner was unable to do so (and for that matter, Flatt was unable to do so in 2011 after SHE had a rough GPF).

[chipso1]

I wasn't trying to compare the actual skates so much as the situation both find themselves in after the GPF. Defending a title and coming into nationals off a rough skate. Not necessarily easy to simply "shake off"...Meissner was unable to do so (and for that matter, Flatt was unable to do so in 2011 after SHE had a rough GPF).

Yes, but my point was that Meissner (and Flatt since you brought her up) had a lot more working against them than Ashley does. At that stage in their careers, both their jump and non-jump elements were not that great. Wagner's elements are better than they ever have been. Even her spins, when not achieving Level 4s, are gaining far more +GOE than Meissner & Flatt's spins did.

Unless this injury turns out to be really serious, I guess I wouldn't worry too much about Ashley heading into Omaha. Mentally, I don't see the GPF silver medal affecting her. It was still a respectable skate.

[victoriaheidi]

But Meissner and Flatt...well, both sucked at their respective GPFs. Meissner was about 20 points behind the 5th place competitor. Flatt had the lowest score ever for a GPF competitor. Wagner fell, but Wagner fought--hard. And she showed that one mistake (and, later, two!) wouldn't mean the end of her skate (even though that 2A fall looked really painful!). She still put up a 181.93 and her highest SP score thus far this season! I certainly wouldn't lump her in with Meissner and Flatt, who didn't rise to the challenge.

And, as others have said, if she was going to have an off night, I'm glad she had it at the GPF--and still managed to score and place respectably.

[jlai]

For some reason, doing poorly and finishing last at gpf is usually not a good omen for a US lady later in the season. Meissner 07-8, Flatt 2010-11, Czisny 2011-2 and 05-06 and Tonia Kwiatkowski 1996-7 (not making out of nationals).

Gao finished last, but she didn't skate poorly. Hopefully that means the jinx escapes her.

And I think there're similar patterns for US ladies at JGPF, but I haven't checked all the years.

Hopefully, USFS won't consider gpf and jgpf qualifications for 4CC or jw or other spots, for skating poorly at the final and then at nationals usually means....not a good sign. Now skating well at the final should have a little weight, IMHO.

[RD]

Yes, but my point was that Meissner (and Flatt since you brought her up) had a lot more working against them than Ashley does. At that stage in their careers, both their jump and non-jump elements were not that great. Wagner's elements are better than they ever have been. Even her spins, when not achieving Level 4s, are gaining far more +GOE than Meissner & Flatt's spins did.

True, fair point. However, it is still Wagner's worst FS of the season (and actually, probably worst FS dating back a couple of years at least if you consider that she rarely if ever falls!). While she may be SCORING higher with mistakes than Meissner or Flatt did, the question remains whether she will fight back and return to previous form, or continue to fold as others before her often have. Czisny last season is a good example, although she was hardly stellar at any point in the season. But she progressively got worse as the season wore on.

We shall see. Too soon to call anything at this point, and perhaps Wagner is in a better position to recover than Meissner and Flatt were, but it doesn't mean the task will be any easier for her.

[UGG]

True, fair point. However, it is still Wagner's worst FS of the season (and actually, probably worst FS dating back a couple of years at least if you consider that she rarely if ever falls!). While she may be SCORING higher with mistakes than Meissner or Flatt did, the question remains whether she will fight back and return to previous form, or continue to fold as others before her often have. Czisny last season is a good example, although she was hardly stellar at any point in the season. But she progressively got worse as the season wore on.

We shall see. Too soon to call anything at this point, and perhaps Wagner is in a better position to recover than Meissner and Flatt were, but it doesn't mean the task will be any easier for her.

IDK-I mean it was not her best, but she did end up on the podium. From what I remember with Kimmie, every time she skated after 2006 worlds it seemed like her jumps just got worse. I think she did better at worlds but not much. Ashley has been pretty consistent since last year. This seems kind of like a fluke thing to me.

[Triple Butz]

I hope the injury isn't serious, but after watching her LP, I'm not worried about Ashley. The 3sal was just a fluke rushed take-off and the axel was just unfortunate. She still landed five solid triples in the free, and got another clean sp under her belt. She has said that she felt a lot of pressure this season and hopefully now that she's had a not-so-great free skate and still scored well some of that pressure will be lifted.

[Coco]

Interesting and random stats:

Average Short Program Base Value (GP events, not GPF)

30.215 Gracie Gold
28.28 Mirai Nagasu
27.18 Agnes Z.
27.09 Ashley Wagner
26.625 Christina Gao

Average SP TES (GP Events, not GPF)

31.7 Mirai Nagasu
31.55 Ashley Wagner
31.225 Gracie Gold
30.37 Agnes Z.
28.745 Christina Gao

[chipso1]

Congrats to Ashley & Hannah on the GP/JGP Final silver medals!

Six weeks 'til Nationals!

2012-13 U.S. Ladies -- Top International Scores

1. Ashley WAGNER (190.63), Trophee Eric Bompard
2. Mirai NAGASU (176.88), NHK Trophy
3. Gracie GOLD (175.03), Rostelecom Cup
4. Christina GAO (174.25), Skate America
5. Agnes ZAWADZKI (172.95), U.S. Classic
6. Hannah MILLER (168.41), JGP Final

7. Angela WANG (162.65), JGP Zagreb
8. Samantha CESARIO (157.72), JGP Linz
9. Leah KEISER (156.33), JGP Istanbul
10. Courtney HICKS (153.77), JGP Lake Placid
11. Caroline ZHANG (149.87), Skate Canada
12. Barbie LONG (147.19), JGP Bled

13. Kiri BAGA (142.22), JGP Lake Placid
14. Vanessa LAM (140.89), JGP Courchevel
15. Ashley CAIN (136.51), JGP Courchevel
16. Rachael FLATT (136.09), Skate America out for rest of season
17. Nina JIANG (115.48), JGP Istanbul


Upcoming assignments:

• (2013 U.S. Figure Skating Championships)
  
  
  The 2013 U.S. Figure Skating Championships are January 20-27 in Omaha, NE. Click here for a complete list of Juvenile-Senior competitors.

[cbd1235]

Some people are reading wayyyyyyyy too far into this. She rushed a triple sal take-off and missed her toe on an axel take-off (never a fun mistake to make), no big deal. Considering all 3 jump elements in the sp and the other 4 jump elements in her free skate were Grade-A Flawless....she's be fine. In my opinion she has the 2nd best jumping technique of any world lady at the moment (after Yuna), technique will always get you through.

May I point out Michelle Kwan at '97 Nats: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LslpHwk4Avg

Every once in a while it just happens to everyone.

[chipso1]

Catching up on the JGPF ladies' FS videos, and to Hannah and Angela! Hannah's consistency is stellar, and her jumps (notably the 3F) are looking bigger than ever. I also though the 3Lz is vastly improved. Her progress the past two years -- even the past one year -- is really incredible.

Angela was fab in the FS too! Her 3Lz+3T+2T is perfect, and I love the addition of the 3T+2A sequence. Her jumps have such amazing ride-outs, especially her second 3Lz. If she skates a clean short at Nationals, I have no doubt she can be in the final flight. One to watch for sure.

[victoriaheidi]

ITA. And I really don't get the Meissner and Flatt comparisons. There's a difference between a few small mistakes and a total flop.