U.S. Ladies [#6]: "Swaggering with the S'Wagner" et al. into 2013

[Jammers]

Mirai did not medal at the Games, and the only reason she wasnt atleast closer to Rochette (a whopping 13 points back, when some felt she even deserved the bronze) is that the U.S foolishly hedged their bets on Flatt when many felt Nagasu should have won Nationals. So she is hardly a good example. In fact she is only an indirect example of my point, the U.S could have easily given Nagasu the U.S title in 2010, they seemed to actually think Flatt was their big hopeful for Vancouver though, but they were wrong and payed the price.

As for Hughes, I already noted in the days of the U.S strength when they had many recognized elite contenders, it was fine for someone not to win Nationals and win the big event. Losing Nationals to Michelle Kwan, Tara Lipinski, Kristi Yamaguchi, Debi Thomas, or even Sasha Cohen, Nancy Kerrigan, Jill Trenary, Tonya Harding, did not mean you were out of the game. Those days are long gone. International judges do not view Nagasu, Gold, Gao, or anyone else as amongst the elite now, that is plainly evident by their scoring on the grand prix series even for their better efforts. So if Wagner loses at Nationals to one of them, that is pretty much it for her medal chances at Worlds this year. Lysacek losing Nationals to Abbott wasnt even a big deal since Abbott was the GP final Champion in 2009 and considered a gold medal contender for both the 2009 Worlds and 2010 Olympics.

I disagree. If Gracie had simply landed one more jump cleanly she would have beat the judges pet Korpi at the COR. If she had skated a clean LP she would have won easily. The judges have shown they will give her big scores if she's clean. As it was with a messy LP she scored nearly 113 points. Yes she's not at Ashley's level yet but give her another year or two of experience and improvement and she will be right there or even pass up Ashley and be a threat at the World level. Mirai on the other hand has to really earn her scores since she has wasted so many chances since 2010.

[Jammers]

Mirai did not medal at the Games, and the only reason she wasnt atleast closer to Rochette (a whopping 13 points back, when some felt she even deserved the bronze) is that the U.S foolishly hedged their bets on Flatt when many felt Nagasu should have won Nationals. So she is hardly a good example. In fact she is only an indirect example of my point, the U.S could have easily given Nagasu the U.S title in 2010, they seemed to actually think Flatt was their big hopeful for Vancouver though, but they were wrong and payed the price.

As for Hughes, I already noted in the days of the U.S strength when they had many recognized elite contenders, it was fine for someone not to win Nationals and win the big event. Losing Nationals to Michelle Kwan, Tara Lipinski, Kristi Yamaguchi, Debi Thomas, or even Sasha Cohen, Nancy Kerrigan, Jill Trenary, Tonya Harding, did not mean you were out of the game. Those days are long gone. International judges do not view Nagasu, Gold, Gao, or anyone else as amongst the elite now, that is plainly evident by their scoring on the grand prix series even for their better efforts. So if Wagner loses at Nationals to one of them, that is pretty much it for her medal chances at Worlds this year. Lysacek losing Nationals to Abbott wasnt even a big deal since Abbott was the GP final Champion in 2009 and considered a gold medal contender for both the 2009 Worlds and 2010 Olympics.

Damn why did this post twice? How come there is no delete post function on here?

[demetriosj]

I disagree. If Gracie had simply landed one more jump cleanly she would have beat the judges pet Korpi at the COR. If she had skated a clean LP she would have won easily. .

That's a lot of "ifs" there! You can "if" til the cows come home about any skater....

[judgejudy27]

I disagree. If Gracie had simply landed one more jump cleanly she would have beat the judges pet Korpi at the COR. If she had skated a clean LP she would have won easily. The judges have shown they will give her big scores if she's clean. As it was with a messy LP she scored nearly 113 points. Yes she's not at Ashley's level yet but give her another year or two of experience and improvement and she will be right there or even pass up Ashley and be a threat at the World level. Mirai on the other hand has to really earn her scores since she has wasted so many chances since 2010.

I agree. Post Sochi Gold will be a real medal contender at the World level. She could even threaten Wagners reign in the U.S before then, even if she doesnt have Wagners potential to challenge on the World stage for the moment. Agree on Mirai too, she wont be getting any gifts from Nationals or International judges at this point. She will have to earn every mark she gets, which is one reason I am not entirely sure her chances to make the World team are all that great, despite that she seems to be skating better now.

[Sasha'sSpins]

I think Ashley will do just fine and make the team easily. Love Mirai, she's my fave, but she has hurt her rep with such poor showings these past couple of years-on the bright side she seems to be working hard and improving at every event this season. Changing to coaches closer to home has clearly helped her. I think she can win the judges back to her side with some very solid skating.

That being said-I think if she lands her huge jumps Gracie will be on the team with Ashley.

[b-man]

International judges do not view Nagasu, Gold, Gao, or anyone else as amongst the elite now, that is plainly evident by their scoring on the grand prix series even for their better efforts.

It looks like their were 34 entrants in the grand prix, with Gao, Nagasu, Zawadski and Gold finishing 7th, 8th, 10th and 12th respectively. Both Gao and Nagasu finsihed ahead of the number three Japanese, Murakami, and the number three Russian, Sotnikova, as well as the reigning world silver medalist Leonova in 19th. Even with Kim and Kostner added to the mix, I think either Nagasu or Gao or Gold would have a good chance of finishing in the top ten

[judgejudy27]

It looks like their were 34 entrants in the grand prix, with Gao, Nagasu, Zawadski and Gold finishing 7th, 8th, 10th and 12th respectively. Both Gao and Nagasu finsihed ahead of the number three Japanese, Murakami, and the number three Russian, Sotnikova, as well as the reigning world silver medalist Leonova in 19th. Even with Kim and Kostner added to the mix, I think either Nagasu or Gao or Gold would have a good chance of finishing in the top ten

I agree the #2 American has a good chance at 10 at Worlds, and will likely need top 10 to ensure the U.S 3 spots for Sochi. The U.S basically has to bank on Wagner to finish 3rd or 4th (anything higher is a bonus) and the 2nd U.S lady to be 8th or 9th, to be completely safe. I think they are capable of doing that, but Wagner is the one who will really need to pull in the big result. You certainly cant hope for Gold or Nagasu to finish as high as 3rd or 4th. 5th or 6th would be the absolute max best result for either of them this year IMO (for Gao 8th or 9th would be the absolute best max probably, as much as I like her sending her to Worlds this year is dicey).

[olympic]

Yes. Gold and Nagasu are both on an upward trend based on their results during the GP series and this bodes well for their abilities to get into the top 10. OTOH, Gao has been trending downward which is not a disaster but obviously is in the wrong direction. I'm unsure of where to classify Zawadzki. She has like Gao been moving downward. Her highest score this season was at the inaugural Senior B competition back in September, but she's been doing relatively well in the LP, especially when compared to last year. However, I don't think it's enough to be considered ahead of Gold and Nagasu. Thus, I don't think Gao and Zawadzki would be good bets right now to help get 3 spots. Judges both nationally and internationally love Czisny when she stays on her feet. But who knows what we will see from her at Nationals, her first competition of the year, and whether she will skate top 10 world's performances!

[b-man]

Agree, I expect Wagner 2nd to 5th, with 3rd or 4th more likely. With that result from Wagner, and 8th or 9th for Nagasu or Gold would be expected and is within their capability. Mirai is 8th on the season's best list slightly ahead of Gold in 10th. The list doesn't include Kim or Kostner, but includes Radionova who is ineligible.

[olympic]

Agree, I expect Wagner 2nd to 5th, with 3rd or 4th more likely. With that result from Wagner, and 8th or 9th for Nagasu or Gold would be expected and is within their capability. Mirai is 8th on the season's best list slightly ahead of Gold in 10th. The list doesn't include Kim or Kostner, but includes Radionova who is ineligible.

If Wagner snatches the bronze, then either Gold or Nagasu would just need 10th place. If she gets a silver (granted, that would take a proper alignment of the stars), then 11th from Gold or Nagasu would suffice.

Also, Lipnitskaya w/ a 179 pt. total was just ahead of Gold and Nagasu on the season's best list but she is ineligible/injured, so it balances out 2 for 2 out w/ Kim and Kostner. That means the 8th and 10th places remain the same. Also, Kostner only scored at 175 pts. at her only international competition (Golden Spin) which technically lifts Nagasu and Gold on the season's best list to 7th and 9th of all eligible Senior ladies this year but I'm sure you assumed Kostner will rocket up the standings by Worlds.

[Sylvia]

Kanako Murakami also seems to be trending upward based on her Japan Nationals performance.

Have you watched Carolina Kostner's Nationals performances yet, Olympic? Video links are posted in the Kostner thread: http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/show...=1#post3776701

[olympic]

Kanako Murakami also seems to be trending upward based on her Japan Nationals performance.

Have you watched Carolina Kostner's Nationals performances yet, Olympic? Video links are posted in the Kostner thread: http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/show...=1#post3776701

Yes. I remember watching it before the holidays and thinking that the 175 pt. total at Golden Spin belies where she really is score-wise, even this early in her season. Thus, it's more accurate to measure her alongside Kim, Asada and Wagner than Gold and Nagasu.

[pinky166]

Gao can place higher than 8th or 9th. Realistically she has no hope to beat:

Kim
Kostner
Asada

And you would EXPECT Wagner, Suzuki, Korpi, and Tuktamysheva to place ahead of her, but that's not a given as none of them are that consistent (particularly Suzuki, who was beaten by Miyahara at Nationals, and Korpi, who could very well pop most of her jumps). Tuktamysheva and Wagner have been pretty consistent this season, but Liza has no PCS edge on Gao, her PCS might even average lower than Gao's on the GP this season, and Ashley still has to make the team and we saw she's human at the GPF. Christina already beat Sotnikova at SA, and Sotnikova continues to struggle, Leonova is a mess right now and actually so are Makarova and Korobeynikova so regardless of who the 3rd Russian lady at Worlds is, they don't seem like a necessarily huge threat at this point. And Murakami could be as high as like 4th but with her URs she sometimes scores really low, particularly in the FS, and Gao already qualified ahead of her for the GPF and beat her at CoC last season too, actually.

So yes, the field has fairly large breadth in that there are a lot of pretty strong skaters, but realistically, Gao could feasibly place 5th (4th is probably a stretch) to 7th without a bunch of weird things having to happen and I think her odds of doing that are just as good as Gracie's or Mirai's at this point. 5th is really the highest you can hope for with any of them, but I do think 6th or 7th is possible, it would just mean one of them skating well and beating (assuming Kim, Asada, Kostner, Wagner go 1-4) one (for 7th) or two (for 6th) of Korpi, Suzuki, and Tuktamysheva, and hoping that no one else (like Sotnikova, Osmond, Leonova/other 3rd Russian, Li, K. Zhang if she's back, etc) suddenly improves a lot and sneaks ahead. So yes, it's going to be a tall order for whoever the second lady is, but in terms of who is the most likely to manage it, I'd say if anything, Gold and Gao are ahead of Nagasu at this point. That being said, if Wagner can manage 5th or better, then the second lady only needs to be 8th, and obviously that gets higher the higher up Wagner can finish, but I do think 8th or 9th is realistically very possible for any of the 3 ladies who are really being considered, or even for Agnes if she continues to skate better in the FS.

[smarts1]

^ It is nearly impossible that Gao will ever place above Ashley. And if you think that Gao can place above Ashley, what makes you think Gao can't beat Mao? After all, Ashley has beaten Mao on numerous occasions now. Mao has proved she is more human the last couple seasons than ever.

I know you've been betting on Christina since 2010, but come on, even you have to admit, that is a little too much.

[judgejudy27]

Well Mao has greater scoring potential than Ashley. The times Ashley beat Mao, Mao had mistakes. Ashley too can mistakes though and will score lower with mistakes than Mao does with hers, and low enough for someone like Gao skating great to beat her, while Mao with mistakes can score low enough for Ashley skating great to beat her, but probably not low enough for Gao even skating perfectly to beat her. Seems pretty simple to me.

[pinky166]

I know Ashley's beaten Mao a few times. I more mean, her status as a top international lady has been short lived, and we've seen others make their way to the top only to suddenly falter later...Czisny, Leonova, Kostner (she rose back to the top though after being out of it for a few seasons), Korobeynikova to an extent, the list goes on. Mao has been one of the top ladies for about 7 years now, compared to Ashley's, well really it's only been a year since she really started to shoot up the rankings. I said Ashley is likely to beat whoever the 2nd lady is, I said 5th realistically is the highest Christina, Gracie, or Mirai could realistically place barring some very unusual performances/withdrawals.

I believe in Ashley, but I am a little worried about Nationals, just cause the record for successfully defending a senior ladies title in the US is really daunting in a bad way, so even if Ashley is 2nd at Nats and still goes to Worlds, it means another girl in the US will beat her at Nationals, and if they beat her there, why not also at Worlds? And that's why I say Christina because if people think Gracie or Mirai can do it, idk why not Christina, she made the GPF over both of them, has jumps almost as good as Gracie's and better than Mirai's, her PCS internationally have been similar to Gracie and only a little below Mirai, and more importantly she's been a lot more consistent in landing/rotating her jumps. I do think a clean Gracie or Mirai beats Christina in the SP, I just think at this point it's FAR more likely Christina skates a clean FS with 6 or 7 ratified than Mirai or Gracie do the same, and if that happens, a small lead from the SP can easily be eaten up and Christina can come out on top. Gao has not skated a bad FS all season, after all, and after the GP idk if it's really realistic to expect Gracie or Mirai to rotate/land more than maybe 3 or 4 triples in the FS. So I tend to think 6 or 7 triples from Christina > 4 triples from Gracie or Mirai, and by more than the SP margin Mirai and Gracie would presumably have over Gao if all 3 go clean there. The point of my other post was not to say that I think Gao can beat Ashley or Mao at Worlds, more that, if she makes the team, I think she has a shot at placing higher than 8th or 9th.

[chipso1]

^When did Korobeynikova make her way to the top? I don't consider a 4th place at Euros followed by a 19th place finish at Worlds "the top."

It's a little tough to make Worlds predictions three weeks before Nationals, but Gao has shown so far this season that two clean programs will net her approximately 175 points, plus a few if she keeps on with the 3F+3T in the FS. She's also been on a downward trend lately, and I don't see her getting the PCS to be competitive with the top 6 at Worlds.

[change of edge]

wow Yuna just skated a beautiful, clean program to take her nationals with over 145 points for FS. Incredible.

[aftershocks]

^^ Nice for Yu Na, but is there a reason you're posting that news here? This isn't the Yu Na comeback thread.

[olympic]

Well Mao has greater scoring potential than Ashley. The times Ashley beat Mao, Mao had mistakes. Ashley too can mistakes though and will score lower with mistakes than Mao does with hers, and low enough for someone like Gao skating great to beat her, while Mao with mistakes can score low enough for Ashley skating great to beat her, but probably not low enough for Gao even skating perfectly to beat her. Seems pretty simple to me.

My take -

SP - Ashley and Mao were just about equal in the SP at the GPF in Russia, a location that does not give either of them a clear advantage. Both have equally strong backing from equally strong Feds. And both did not put in their hardest elements, which truthfully are equally spotty (3f-3t for Ashley; 3x for Mao). Both have vowed to put it in by Worlds. I guess if both execute those elements (or not, but just do what they did at the GPF), they would probably remain 0.5 apart.

LP - Ashley and Mao were separated by approximately 2 pts. (127 for Ashley - 129 for Mao) in LPs that both skated in countries that gave neither a home court advantage. Ashley got the 127 pts. at TEB while not doing a 2x-3t and could afford to up most levels on spins/FW. Mao got the 129 pts. without a 3x and I think she doubled a jump.

Tiny advantage to Mao based on the season, but I don't think Mao has an error advantage over Ashley, TBH

Now, another thing to consider is WHICH skater has a higher likelihood of completing their signature move (3f-3t for Ashley and 3x for Mao) this season?? Didn't Ashley do the 3f-3t at '12 WTT? I don't recall. When was the last time Mao cleanly executed a 3x? I think it was in '10 Worlds. But, someone correct me if I'm wrong.

People can quibble about how much they feel one skater is generally superior to the other, but I wouldn't be surprised if in the eyes of the judges, Ashley catches Mao at Worlds even if Mao does really well, but Ashley brings her fire too.


------------

Another interesting analysis would be Asada/Wagner v. Kostner. That is what we have to go by. Kostner is beloved by judges and she now holds a world crown. The president of the ISU is her countryman. at '12 Worlds, her last major event where she held no home court advantage, she lost approximately 5 pts. doubling a jump in the SP, so probably a clean SP from Kostner but w/o a Lutz would garner 66 pts. as well (around Wagner and Asada w/o their signature moves). If she completez a Lutz, perhaps a couple of points more. I think Kostner, Asada and Wagner are all about even in the SP.

In the LP, Kostner scored 128 pts. w/ a doubled jump and w/o a Lutz. Similar to Asada and Wagner, she had 2 areas mentioned above where she could increase her elements values, and all 3 scored in that upper 120s range w/o any increase. I doubt we will see a 3z-3t from Kostner this year, so her hardest combo would either be a 3t-3t or 3f-3t.

I think they are all pretty much in the same league and I'm not sold that anyone has a clear advantage over the other ... this season. Yu Na on the other hand should be considered above them.

It will be interesting to see how Ashley and John Nicks try to increase Ashley's capability to gain any further advantages. Perhaps small things besides what I've mentioned above, like moving the 3 jump combo to the 2nd half of the LP