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  1. #261
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    Depends on what you mean by clean. If Ashley rotates the same amount of triples that she did at TEB she will be on the team regardless of what the others do. If she pops a few and focuses on standing up it will be real close in my opinion.

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    Quote Originally Posted by olympic View Post
    Scenario at Nationals -

    What happens if Ashley is clean yet conservative, but Mirai and Gracie both hit it out of the ballpark? Who would make the team??
    A clean yet conservative Ashley is still "home run" hit so to speak, and I don't doubt she'd still place first.

    So I guess the real question is if both Mirai and Gracie are clean, who gets that spot? Though I much prefer Mirai's skating, Gracie's technical content would probably give her that second spot. I think Mirai has the stronger SP overall, but both she and Gracie have rather blah LPs...but if Gracie hits her jumps it will be hard to ignore her. I'd probably have her 3rd in PCS but her TES would be very high...that's a big IF though. As of now neither Gracie nor Mirai have landed more than four triple jumps at a major event so we'll have to see who's able to deliver at nationals.

  3. #263
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    Quote Originally Posted by olympic View Post
    Scenario at Nationals -

    What happens if Ashley is clean yet conservative, but Mirai and Gracie both hit it out of the ballpark? Who would make the team??
    I think Gracie is probably the only one who has an outside shot at the title, and that's if Ashley makes mistakes. Skating out of the ballpark for Mirai still probably means a few downgrades and edge calls. I could actually see Gracie winning the sp with a clean skate. Her jump content is matched only by Yuna, and she's been getting all level four spins lately, so she may be able to edge Ashley there, but not by much. In the free program, if Ashley stands up for 90% of it, she wins IMO.

  4. #264
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    ^IDK. Talking about the SP, Agnes usually rocks that portion of the competition and I wouldn't be surprised to see her in the mix or even leading if Ashley doesn't do a 3-3. However, she usually drops in the LP.

  5. #265
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    IMO a clean Ashley would have no problem winning the short over those with 3/3s even with her own 3/2. She beat a clean Suzuki with a 3/3 in the SP at the GP final with her own 3/2, and the other U.S ladies are not at the level of Suzuki. The U.S judges will note Ashley scored a 66 with a 3/2 at the GP final, so with predictable National inflation, especialy for their star, will ensure she scores over 70 most likely with a clean 3/2. Nobody else will touch that.

  6. #266
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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    IMO a clean Ashley would have no problem winning the short over those with 3/3s even with her own 3/2. She beat a clean Suzuki with a 3/3 in the SP at the GP final with her own 3/2, and the other U.S ladies are not at the level of Suzuki. The U.S judges will note Ashley scored a 66 with a 3/2 at the GP final, so with predictable National inflation, especialy for their star, will ensure she scores over 70 most likely with a clean 3/2. Nobody else will touch that.
    I think this is likely to happen too.I would say a clean Wagner with a 3/2 would score around 68-70, Gold 65-67, Zawadski 64-66 and Nagasu 63-65 (this is IF they will skate clean programs..)
    I have no idea how Czisny would score with a 3/2, 62-64 maybe?
    Should be a great competition this year

  7. #267
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    Quote Originally Posted by worldsnice12 View Post
    I think this is likely to happen too.I would say a clean Wagner with a 3/2 would score around 68-70, Gold 65-67, Zawadski 64-66 and Nagasu 63-65 (this is IF they will skate clean programs..)
    I have no idea how Czisny would score with a 3/2, 62-64 maybe?
    Should be a great competition this year
    Those are about right. Although I have a feeling Czisny will be lowballed even with good skates at Nationals so maybe a bit less than that for her. Funny how only a year ago Czisny with a singled axel outscored a clean Ashley in the SP. My how fast things can change in this sport. There is more chance of Michelle Kwan returning at 33 to win the Olympics than that happening this year.

  8. #268
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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    IMO a clean Ashley would have no problem winning the short over those with 3/3s even with her own 3/2. She beat a clean Suzuki with a 3/3 in the SP at the GP final with her own 3/2, and the other U.S ladies are not at the level of Suzuki. The U.S judges will note Ashley scored a 66 with a 3/2 at the GP final, so with predictable National inflation, especialy for their star, will ensure she scores over 70 most likely with a clean 3/2. Nobody else will touch that.
    I could see it going this way, but you never know how PCS will be judged at nationals, I mean last year Czisny with a 1a beat a clean Ashley in the sp. Gracie does seem to be liked by the USFS and I see her getting a PCS bump, and her lip may be ignored. That, coupled with her jumps and level 4 spins could potentially take over Ashley if she misses spin levels. Suzuki was not far off at the GPF, and likely lost points on her mess of a flying camel. Gracie will not touch Ashley in PCS, but with a 3f/3t and huge 3z and all lv 4 spins, she has a shot at edging her with a huge TES lead. Not saying it will happen, but I see it as a possibility.

  9. #269
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    Quote Originally Posted by Triple Butz View Post
    I could see it going this way, but you never know how PCS will be judged at nationals, I mean last year Czisny with a 1a beat a clean Ashley in the sp.
    Last year Ashley did not go into Nationals as the top dog, despite arguably having the best season of the Americans on the grand prix, which wasnt saying much since nobody had a good one. She wasnt getting high scores from international judges even with clean skates yet, and her history still had many leery to want to bank on her consistency at the international level despite being conisstent that season. Czisny and Nagasu were still perceived as the two strongest skaters when they were on, and the two with the most international cred, and up and comers like Zawadzki, Gold (although in juniors), and others were even prefered over Wagner at that point. Wagner needed others to make mistakes to win Nationals last year, and didnt even skate spectacularly herself, but she got the breaks she needed and won it, and has since ran with it in a big way. So much has changed in a year which I dont think I even have to go into in depth, lets just say Wagner is now clearly viewed as the top dog, the one with the most international cred, and the only one you can count on to probably deliver on the international stage too.

    At this years Nationals I will predict that if in the short Wagner skates clean and Czisny does a single axel, Czisny will find herself atleast 12 points back vs last year when she was ahead (aka even if Wagner does the single axel and Czisny goes clean, Wagner will still come out ahead just as Czisny did last year, this year is night and day from last year for many of the skaters, and for both Wagner and Czisny, the former who this year is the one the USFSA would want on the team at all costs, and the latter the want who this year with it being one with Olympic spots on the line they would want off the team at all costs).


    That said yes you could be right, Gold or Zawadzki with a 3/3 might be given the nod in the short over Wagner with a 3/2, but as U.S Nationals tends to be fairly political and favoring the people who are perceived to be the strongest that much more, I would be a bit surprised.

  10. #270

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    Well, I think the argument reflects a 6.0 view of the importance of jumps compared to other elements.

    What's the point differential from a 2a to a 1a in the SP? (I'm too lazy to look up last years Scale of Values!)

    But at most it's 3.00 points, right?

    Alissa probably earned the difference back vs. Ashley on spins alone, when you include GOE. And that would be deserved.
    Keeper of Nathalie Pechelat's bitchface.

  11. #271
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    Quote Originally Posted by Coco View Post
    Well, I think the argument reflects a 6.0 view of the importance of jumps compared to other elements.

    What's the point differential from a 2a to a 1a in the SP? (I'm too lazy to look up last years Scale of Values!)

    But at most it's 3.00 points, right?

    Alissa probably earned the difference back vs. Ashley on spins alone, when you include GOE. And that would be deserved.
    I dont totally disagree but the thing is when you are in favor they focus that much more on building you up on your strengths in the scores (eg- for Czisny spin and spiral GOE, giving her high PCS for her lines and style), and when you are not in favor they focus more on not giving you scores for your weaknesses (eg- Czisny even if she skated clean, really slow skating, weak and small jumps, simple choreography, no great presence or command). There are a wide variety of things they can justify. When they liked Czisny they could justify her giving her the highest hypothetical base scores if everyone skated clean by giving her marks for her strengths while downplaying her weaknesses (although even with that there was howls of protest about her placings at the 2009 and 2012 Nationals with her mistakes), and now that they likely done they can just as easily justify giving her only about the 6th hypothetical base scores if everyone skated cleanly if need be (probably wont have to as she is safe to make enough mistakes anyway) by marking her down for her weaknesses, while not going crazy on her strengths. Also since nobody, not even the casual skating fan, wants to see Czisny go to Worlds this year with Olympic spots on the line, and given all the gifts she was given in the past, nobody will come to her defense either even if she is lowballed for one of her better efforts, making it all the easier.

  12. #272
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    A 1-axel is an illegal element in the sp, so it has to get a mandatory -3 across the board.

  13. #273
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    Quote Originally Posted by Triple Butz View Post
    I could see it going this way, but you never know how PCS will be judged at nationals, I mean last year Czisny with a 1a beat a clean Ashley in the sp. Gracie does seem to be liked by the USFS and I see her getting a PCS bump, and her lip may be ignored. That, coupled with her jumps and level 4 spins could potentially take over Ashley if she misses spin levels. Suzuki was not far off at the GPF, and likely lost points on her mess of a flying camel. Gracie will not touch Ashley in PCS, but with a 3f/3t and huge 3z and all lv 4 spins, she has a shot at edging her with a huge TES lead. Not saying it will happen, but I see it as a possibility.
    Well Czisny did better at the GPs than Wagner last season and she was the defending champion and 5th place holder at Worlds.

    I wanna bet USFS will find every single way to give Wagner points (overlooking rotations etc) and let her defend her National title without controversy. As long as she is clean with even just a 3/2, she will win the short program with huge GOEs and PCS. She is the only US lady with a shot at a World medal and having her beaten at any portion of the competition and disturb her momentum will risk her reputation. Gold, Gao and Nagasu can battle out the second spot all they want, but the first spot is Wagner's and Wagner's only. Remember how Flatt was scored at 2010 Nationals compared to Nagasu / Wagner?

  14. #274
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    Quote Originally Posted by Coco View Post
    Well, I think the argument reflects a 6.0 view of the importance of jumps compared to other elements.

    What's the point differential from a 2a to a 1a in the SP? (I'm too lazy to look up last years Scale of Values!)

    But at most it's 3.00 points, right?

    Alissa probably earned the difference back vs. Ashley on spins alone, when you include GOE. And that would be deserved.
    Alissa's spins is where she scores a huge amount of her points. Very few ladies do Level 4 spins plus receive +2 and mostly +3 GOE on them consistently.
    (I'd cheat and give her +5 GOE because they are that good. )

    As a big Alissa fan, I'd be OK with her "not" making the 2013 World team but would like to see her make the 2013 4CC team and do well, come back strong during the 2013 GP's, and make the Olympic team in 2014. Hopefully the US gets 3 spots for the Olympics.

  15. #275

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    Are there any recent training reports on Alissa? She mentioned wanting to compete before Nationals. Did she, or is she entered in something?

  16. #276

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    Quote Originally Posted by hoptoad View Post
    Are there any recent training reports on Alissa? She mentioned wanting to compete before Nationals. Did she, or is she entered in something?
    She skated in the Skating & Gymnastics show last weekend and reportedly landed both 3T and 2A in a watered down version of her "La Vie en Rose" SP.

  17. #277
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    Quote Originally Posted by hoptoad View Post
    Are there any recent training reports on Alissa? She mentioned wanting to compete before Nationals. Did she, or is she entered in something?
    The only thing I know is that when she withdrew from NHK, she resolutely confirmed she would be at Nationals (this was posted in another thread) and the phrasing made it sound like she'd crawl over glass to be there. So, if she's landing triples (see posts about the show she participated in), I'm thinking we will see her there. We still have about a month before Nationals.

    Interestingly, Alissa may outperform expectations at Nationals. At '11 SA, she skated a beautiful SP to 'La Vie en Rose' scoring 64 pts., and managed to hold off Kostner to win the SA title with it being her first full competition of the season (like this Nationals would be). So, am I reaching for the stars here ?

  18. #278
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    No, you're not...Czisny's competitive history would indicate that she usually does best early in her season, and she also does better in odd-numbered years. In other words, time for the roller-coaster to head up again.

    She's probably the real wildcard/spoiler in the whole Nationals scenario *IF* well-prepared, but I wouldn't be surprised at a spectacular flame-out, either. Not easy for anyone to start their season at Nationals (see Cohen 2010- yes, I know it was 4 years but same concept), much more at stake than at a GP event. Still, with the spotlight on other skaters she can take advantage of the underdog position.

    At this point, there are better candidates for our world team.
    Last edited by RD; 12-23-2012 at 04:23 PM.

  19. #279

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    Here's the GFB (Mandy Moore?) exhibition number Caroline Zhang skated at a recent holiday show at her rink: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HSDnVTdO0SQ
    Last edited by Sylvia; 12-23-2012 at 04:47 PM.
    "Randy [Starkman (1960-April 16, 2012)] lived by the same motto as the rest of us. The Olympics isn’t every four years, it’s every single day. He just got it." --Canadian Olympic kayaker Adam van Koeverden

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    ^ Hmm, Caroline seems to be in pretty good shape. Her spins even look better too.

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