12-12-2012, 06:36 PM
Do we have any word on Gold's training? I hope she has reworked her jump layout in the LP. She hasn't hit a 3loop since this summer, and hasn't managed a second 3lutz all season. She has the most technically difficult LP of anyone planned, but I fear it may be too much for her. I say ditch one of the 3flips and go back to the 2axel/3toe which she never missed even once last season. That, coupled with her lv4 spins, would still probably have the highest base value of anyone and would be more manageable.
12-12-2012, 08:04 PM
Yeah i agree Gracie is perhaps pushing it to much technically. Even watering it down a bit she still has the advantage over the other girls technically. At this point it's all about skating clean and a clean Gracie makes it in the top two at the very least. I do give her credit for trying to push herself technically when a lot of the other top Ladies are trying to get by with weaker jump content.
12-12-2012, 11:21 PM
I don't know, when is the last time she skated a clean long program?
Originally Posted by Jammers
12-13-2012, 05:52 AM
Gracie's issue is more rushing than stamina-related, I think. She can easily do 3lz, and she is fully capable of 3lo, she just needs to stop rushing her timing and she can pull off her planned content. I agree that she maybe doesn't need a 2nd 3f, especially with the edge calls she's been getting, and a 2a-3t in the 2nd half is basically worth as much as the 3f-1/2lo-3s in the first half, especially because she could then put the 3-jump combo in the 2nd half as well, but I think it comes down to how comfortable/consistent she is with the 3f-1/2lo-3s combo in practice, when she did it in SLC it was stunning, maybe even better than her 2a-3t, and having those 2 big combos back to back means she has the potential to get 4 triples out of the way right off the top, so then to be competitive, she really only needs to hit 1 or 2 more in the rest of the entire program, so that takes the pressure off a lot. But I really do think her issue is more just rushing - her speed is a huge asset, but only if she manages it well.
12-13-2012, 12:35 PM
The way Gracie rushes all over the ice reminds me of a bit of Kostner about 6,7 years ago. When i first saw Kostner at the 2006 Olympics she was going so fast and out of control i thought she was going to crash into the boards. It took her years to pace herself and control her speed. With Gracie though i think it's just being all hyped up and nervous.
12-13-2012, 07:31 PM
Well, then we have to start the old argument again. Should judges judge what they see on the ice, or what they saw the last 3 or 4 competitions?
Originally Posted by UGG
12-13-2012, 08:20 PM
What they see on the ice but they'd be idiots not to take into account what has happened during the season. Like UGG said, the only way Ashley won't make the team is if she pulls a Czisny and zambonies her way through her programs. Even with the two falls at the GPF she still scored 115+ so you can imagine (with good ol' US nationals inflation) that would have been closer to 118 or 119 if she turned that performance in at nationals.
Now if Ashley has a rough performance and Mirai or Gracie outskates her, I'd expect whoever skated better to win but I'm sure the judges would finagle the scores to put Ashley into 2nd, similar to what they did with Alissa last year. Alissa should have been 3rd or even 4th yet the judges boosted her enough to keep her 2nd due to her international reputation at that point. No one could have known how terribly she would skate but, at the time, she was the top American competitor.
12-13-2012, 10:15 PM
I'm surprised people really think Mirai is such a favorite for the 2nd spot. If I had to guess, I think she will place below Gracie and Christina, and maybe even Agnes too. Her jumps keep getting dinged for URs and her PCS are hardly better than the rest of the bunch internationally even skating so well (to the blind eye). Her spins are good and get lots of GOE, but I really doubt she will go to Worlds, more likely 4CC. Unless she skates out of her skin at Nats I think the judges will be more inclined to send someone like Gracie or even Christina to Worlds in hopes that they will break out in the future. Mirai's been on the senior international scene for 5 seasons now and has never made the GPF, has only won 2 GP medals to date, and has only gone to Worlds once. Gao made it to the GPF in her 2nd senior season and Gracie managed to win a medal in her first senior season, so I think this looks hopeful that they will get better in the future, whereas Mirai, idk, it appears she may have peaked back in 2010. Mirai is still in the mix, I just think she'll need to skate really well to convince the judges she's a better choice for Worlds than Gold or Gao.
12-13-2012, 10:38 PM
I hope they don't take the season into account. Czisny had a okay fall last season and made the GPF. She was held up at Nationals with iffy skates but I am not sure any other American would have skated better at Worlds except for Zhang who was clearly getting better by the day. You are only as good as your last competition. We are not talking about World Champions with a proven track record here, all of our ladies have their issues.
Originally Posted by kwanatic
12-13-2012, 10:43 PM
People are talking about Mirai as a favorite for the 2nd spot because she has been skating with attack and confidence, which has been missing for quite some time.
I do think Gold is favored slightly more than Mirai or Gao, but it will come down to the performances at the end of the day. I expect the podium will be Wagner, Gold, Nagasu, and Gao with the last 3 in any order.
12-13-2012, 10:47 PM
Nagasu, Zawadzki, and hell, even Rachael Flatt would have done better than 22nd!
Originally Posted by Jarrett
12-13-2012, 10:48 PM
Nagasu is not exactly a pet favorite of the U.S judges the way Czisny and Flatt have been. In 2011 many thought she should have been 2nd over Flatt and she was beaten by a good 7 points or so. In 2010 nearly everyone thought she should have won and she got hammered on URs and barely finished 2nd, wouldnt have if Wagner had not fallen in the short. I see her not having an easy time getting the 2nd spot. They will < any of her questionable jumps, some she was getting away with on the GP, and her PCS at Nationals tend to not be overly generous either. I agree with pinky that I think Gao or Gold are more likely for the 2nd spot.
12-13-2012, 11:05 PM
We can't say that for sure how much better they would have been. Alissa did fall an amazing 7 times.... It would have been 18th for Flatt based of her score at Skate America this year in front of an American crowd. Nagasu was pretty listless last season and got dumped at Skate Canada with mistakes in her long program. And Anges has pretty much zero consistency. When she flies into the air, we don't know what is going to happen but at least it will be big.
Originally Posted by dawnie
12-13-2012, 11:30 PM
- Rep Power
I STILL think they'd be better than 22nd. It's possible that Flatt may have rivaled Czisny's poor finish if she was having an off-night herself, but I think everyone else would have been high teens at worst. Not that it would have made a difference in the ultimate result anyway...
As for Nagasu, I think she could fall anywhere from 2nd to 6th based on a) how she skates and b) how her competition skates.
12-14-2012, 12:06 AM
Mirai has 3 GP medals (2 silvers and a bronze). She was injured in her first senior season. Competition was much harder for her 2nd season (Yuna, Miki, Carolina, Lepisto, Mao, Joannie were all in their A-game --- and much better than the current field). Mirai has been alternate for GPF for the past 3 seasons. If the NHK panel didn't hold up Mao's score for the FS, Mirai would've been 2nd in the competition and beaten Gao in the tiebreaker for GPF. Plus, this year's GP have been subpar without the current world champion and the silver medalist having a meltdown...
Originally Posted by pinky166
12-14-2012, 01:40 AM
Mirai is a late season's bloomer. She rarely has any good outings in the beginning of the season and tends to get stronger as she goes on. That is in stark contrast to Gao, who often skates well her first couple events and then fizzles out by the end (hence why she's never been on a JW podium even though she's been there 3 times).
Originally Posted by pinky166
12-14-2012, 02:29 AM
No way would Flatt ever get lower than 22nd. I could see her on a bad day maybe placing like 16th. But never 22nd. Rachael even on her bad days will never fall 7 times.
If rachael skated like she did at nationals 2012 she could have placed atleast top 8 at worlds in 2012.
Rachaels worst skate of all time was skate canada 2011 and even then she would have done better than Czisny at worlds
12-14-2012, 05:43 AM
This is true. Mirai does usually skate better later, and Gao for the past 2 seasons has scored her SB at her 1st competition of the season (JGP Austria in 2010, CoC in 2011 - and that was just coming off an injury) and it seems that she might do well that again this season, as she skated really well at SA and hasn't been able to match that score since, and she might not even get an after-nationals assignment depending on what happens (though I really hope she does!). The thing I worry about with Mirai is that it seems like the judges are being really strict with URs this season, not just on Mirai either, Mao and Kanako are really getting hammered by the technical panel too and their URs aren't even as obvious as Mirai's (or well maybe Kanako's are, but Mao, I'm always surprised by how many URs she gets). I just worry that Mirai goes to Worlds, skates what seems like an awesome program, then winds up scoring about 109 for a skate that looks like it's worthy of high 120s, a la Kanako, and doesn't get a great score or placement. And it's true Mirai doesn't get much love from Nationals judges, at least not recently. The past 3 years at Nationals she's been pretty harshly marked compared to others IMO.
Originally Posted by smarts1
12-14-2012, 05:47 AM
Also Alissa got 22nd in one of the lowest scoring world championships in a long time. The 7th place finisher didn't even break 160 points, and 8th-12th were all huddled right around the 150 mark. Those are pretty low scores to warrant such placements. Ksenia and her meltdown of a FS placed 9th, and Marchei has 3 triples and was 8th. With the way the numbers worked out last year, pretty much any other girl in consideration would have likely placed in the top 12, likely top 5-top 10, and if Rachael had a repeat of SA, she'd maybe be like 15th or something, no way 22nd. It's really unfortunate too, because the scores were so low, that having someone place 9th or higher to get 3 spots would really only require a score of about 150, which like half the field at US Nationals could have likely managed...
12-14-2012, 05:51 AM
In regard to Alissa and last year's Worlds, I think this sums up the discussion: