U.S. Ladies [#6]: "Swaggering with the S'Wagner" et al. into 2013

[Jarrett]

I never thought MK's triple flip was a money jump. That would have been the lutz which she would always land at least two every competition. The triple flip was just a very nice looking jump when she completed it. I remember something about an sports analysis being done about her technique (her knee or something?) on the flip jump and it was "textbook" good, but it still doesn't mean she couldn't flub it under pressure.

[cbd1235]

When talking about MK compared to any other skater, you could probably call all her triples "Money Jumps" lol. But seriously it was her Lutz and Toe which could be considered as such. Loop was the jump she struggled with, flip was consistent but sometimes gave her trouble. Her axel was never fantastic later in her career but she got it done.

Ashley landed a beautiful 2Axel+3T in the 4CC practice last year, it's on Youtube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhQUUI7xnLU). I watched a stream of the sp warmup at worlds last year and she did a beautiful 3F+3T (no 2ft.). IIRC she also landed it in the warmup at 4CC and WTT (one of which was two footed, can't remember which). Wishing my memory was better.

Ashley has said that she hates 3S with a passion, I can't remember which interview but it's been posted here. She's had trouble with it all season, the technique isn't so solid anymore. I watched the LP warmup at GPF and she did a beautiful one (better than all of those this season) at least.

[aftershocks]

^ So, I guess Ashley left her beautiful Salchow landing in the warm-up then. As has been said, hope this will just be further fuel for her to get stronger under pressure.

[Coco]

Maybe Ashley should start working on 3loop 1 loop 2flip with hopes of making it a 3loop - 3 flip series?

She gets 7.39 for doing the 3loop2a in bonus time.
She would get 8.14 for doing 3loop1loop2f in bonus time, but then lose 1.3 because her first jumping pass would only have 2 jumps.

So she'd lose 0.55 overall, but have a chance - ultimately - at a very impressive and realistic 3-3 series, imo. If she could come up with an additional L3 or L4 flying combo spin, and replace her layback with that, she could earn most or all of that back.

[victoriaheidi]

That could work. But shouldn't she be working on a 3Lo+1/2Lo+3F instead? It's all good, though.

As for bronze...IMHO, Ashley wants the gold really, really badly, but she'd still be thrilled to be on an Olympic or World podium (the first US lady since 2006--that's something huge right there!).

[cbd1235]

As others have said, Ashley strikes me as someone who will be happy with no less than gold. Refreshing amongst a string of American ladies who wouldn't fight for a spot at the top. That's my opinion anyways.

[olympic]

IDK why people would want Wagner to change the 3l -seq- 2x. She's fine. She screwed it up once. I think she should keep it.

I think she should move forward with what is probably her plan: Build towards adding the 2x-3t in the LP and 3f-3t in the SP. She might have an 'out' for the LP at least if the 2x-3t isn't solid by next spring - do a 3t -seq- 2x series. Wouldn't it be the same points but a safer jump combo. She's going to need every tenth to compete w/ Mao and Yu Na, and probably Carolina

Also, curious about something: Would a clean 3t be a bigger point getter than a 3flutz? If the 3t combo never materializes in the combo, can she do a solo 3toe w/ good GOE where the lutz is in her LP and get more points?? Or is it a wash?

[Coco]

I was suggesting she start with 3loop1loop2f, and work up to 3loop1loop3flip.

Series get an 20% deduction, that's why I think she should change her 3loop2a

A clean 3toe would only outscore a flutz if she put some major bells and whistles on it, I think.

[olympic]

I was suggesting she start with 3loop1loop2f, and work up to 3loop1loop3flip.

Series get an 20% deduction, that's why I think she should change her 3loop2a

A clean 3toe would only outscore a flutz if she put some major bells and whistles on it, I think.

Thanks. I was just speculating about a 3flutz w/ negative GOE and a 3toe w/ positive GOE. What is the point spread between a 3toe and a 3z anyway? 2 pts. base value? I believe it was that much last quadrennial, but not sure now. If so, she'd need GOE around +1.5 to break even

[giselle23]

I never thought MK's triple flip was a money jump. That would have been the lutz which she would always land at least two every competition. The triple flip was just a very nice looking jump when she completed it. I remember something about an sports analysis being done about her technique (her knee or something?) on the flip jump and it was "textbook" good, but it still doesn't mean she couldn't flub it under pressure.

Funny you should mention MK's triple flip, which was almost always very good. Check it out in her Spartacus program at 2005 Nationals--it was getting even better at the end of her competitive career. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0EoeO239UX4 (at around 1:22)
But the irony is that the triple flip was her nemesis at the Olympics. In 1998, it was a tad shaky in the LP (she didn't do it in the short)--no big deal but it was an omen of things to come. In 2002, she slipped off the edge (but completed the jump) in the SP and, of course, fell on the 3F in the long, costing her the gold medal (IMO).

[B.Cooper]

As others have said, Ashley strikes me as someone who will be happy with no less than gold. Refreshing amongst a string of American ladies who wouldn't fight for a spot at the top. That's my opinion anyways.

I have to disagree. Nagasu and Flatt skated terrific programs at 2010 Nationals and 2010 Olympics. The competition was much tougher back then. More women were consistently doing (more difficult) 3-3 combos in both the SP and LP, including the American girls (and they were girls in 2010. Nagasu was 16, Flatt was 17 IIRC). And, many of the top women would do at least 4 of the 5 triples, with Mao going for 3A. It wasn't that these girls weren't fighting for a top spot....just a different set of circumstances. The last flight of ladies in the LP at 2010 Olympics was some of the best skating, IMHO, in years. Very few errors, and they all brought their "A" game. I think Nagasu and Flatt knew that they were fighting for bronze. Wagner doesn't have quite the competition that these girls had in 2010.

[aftershocks]

^^ I think Nagasu had more talent and potential to challenge for a medal in 2010 (Olympics and Worlds) than did or ever would Rachael Flatt. I think Flatt was more of a top ten competitor internationally at best, while Nagasu had the talent and total package to win it all or be consistently in the top five. Something went wrong along the way for Mirai and she's trying to battle back.

In essence, I also feel there's no doubt that Ashley has more grit, fire, fight and toughness than we've seen in recent years among U.S. ladies. If she didn't, Ashley wouldn't be where she is now, much less would Nicks have taken her under his wing in the first place.

[cbd1235]

I have to disagree. Nagasu and Flatt skated terrific programs at 2010 Nationals and 2010 Olympics. The competition was much tougher back then. More women were consistently doing (more difficult) 3-3 combos in both the SP and LP, including the American girls (and they were girls in 2010. Nagasu was 16, Flatt was 17 IIRC). And, many of the top women would do at least 4 of the 5 triples, with Mao going for 3A. It wasn't that these girls weren't fighting for a top spot....just a different set of circumstances. The last flight of ladies in the LP at 2010 Olympics was some of the best skating, IMHO, in years. Very few errors, and they all brought their "A" game. I think Nagasu and Flatt knew that they were fighting for bronze. Wagner doesn't have quite the competition that these girls had in 2010.

I wasn't referring to someone crumbling under pressure or anything, or putting out sub-par performances. I just get the feeling from the two aforementioned skaters, that at one time or another they just weren't fighting to improve themselves and bring themselves to the top. I obviously cannot know their mindset or training habits but that's just the impression I got.

As aftershocks said, I just feel Ashley has more grit, fire and fight. Again, just a personal impression. Although I am getting more of that from Nagasu this season here and there.

[NadineWhite]

As regards another favorite of mine, Rachael Flatt, she too is a fighter/a champion! She used to consistently put out one clean program after another, loaded with literally tons of charm, charisma, emotion. She's the only ONE at 2012 Skate America that made me cry. She really is that good in person. I've seen her skate live now twice (2010 SA & 2012 SA) and she's something else. I still say she should have won 2010 Skate America, but the international judges don't like her. And now since her injury her stock has fallen at home domestically as well. C'est la vie...

Furthermore, Rachael had a true "lutz" as well, but what really held her back were the spins because of the precariousness of her back injury she was never able to do difficult spins, and alas I really think she needed to lose a few pounds/get ripped like Sasha Cohen at the 2010 Nationals. Even the mens 1994 Olympic Champion called her fat. I wouldn't go that far , but I always wanted Rachael to follow Joannie Rochette's example.

With all that being said, Rachael can hold her head high, even if she never accomplishes anything else in figure skating, she can leave knowing she did her best ~ 2008 Jr. World Champion, 2010 Sr. National Champion, 2010 Olympian.

ps: I don't think it's over by a long shot, I think she'll come back better than ever, just wait & see...

[RockTheTassel]

Despite some recent shortcomings, Rachael does have a lot to be proud of, and I would definitely consider her a fighter. Honestly, I have a lot of respect for all of the skaters discussed in this thread. They all have to have a certain amount of gumption to make it as far as they have.

[olympic]

Does anyone have an opinion on where Gao stands post-GPF? Helped or Hindered her quest for a team berth? No change?

I think she left things kind of murky: Overall, it wasn't a great outing and her point total was significantly lower than those at her other GP assignments, but OTOH, she showed she's getting a 3f-3t ready and she has like 6 weeks to train it for Nats.

I still think Gold and Nagasu are the 2 chief contenders for that 2nd spot, though.

BTW, sounding like a broken record, but any news on Czisny? I'd be willing to settle for rumors at this point ...

[smarts1]

^ I know many people think Christina has a chance at the World team this season, but I'm not 100% sold yet. She has made some significant improvements, but I'm not sure she'll be able to keep it up by the time nationals comes.

[aftershocks]

Does anyone have an opinion on where Gao stands post-GPF? Helped or Hindered her quest for a team berth? No change?

I think she left things kind of murky: Overall, it wasn't a great outing and her point total was significantly lower than those at her other GP assignments, but OTOH, she showed she's getting a 3f-3t ready and she has like 6 weeks to train it for Nats.

I still think Gold and Nagasu are the 2 chief contenders for that 2nd spot, though.

BTW, sounding like a broken record, but any news on Czisny? I'd be willing to settle for rumors at this point ...

^ I don't think Christina had enough time to prepare for GPF, so it wasn't really necessarily an advantage, although it looks good on her overall resume to have made it there. Her only hope to come out even or to have a slight edge at Nats was likely to just skate clean programs no matter how the judges scored her, as it is without much doubt that the judges had her pegged for last place in the very small GPF field (largely due to a lack of rep and her newbie status on senior international scene).

I think if Gold skates well and lands all her jumps, she is a shoo-in for the second spot. She is the sparkly newcomer with the golden name, and international judges have shown they will score her well if she does what she can do. International judges are still re-warming up to Nagasu and seeing edge calls, even where they are not. Nats third place is probably between Nagasu and Gao. Although if either Nagasu or Gao skate lights out and Gold doesn't, who knows? Let's not forget Agnes either. But, again, IMO, Gold is more favored to make World team, even with a margin for some small errors at Nats. I could of course be wrong, and I'm placing no serious bets really.

Pardon me for "sounding like an old broken record" too, ... but even though Rachael surely had fight and determination to go along with solid jumps (as well as U.S. fed political support), she didn't seem to possess the kind of "knock-em-dead" talent or above average artistic skills the international judges were looking for. I don't think Rachael ever made it past 7th place at Worlds. Now for the "broken record" aspect: Might Rachael have fully developed artistically had she moved to a different coach much sooner? At this vantage point, I think Rachael gave it all she had and the odds were not in her favor to make top three at Worlds, especially not with Alissa and Mirai around and the former "almost girl" also in the picture. I think any one of Alissa, Mirai and Ashley always displayed aspects of greater talent and potential, and that Rachael seemed to peak in figure skating as a young teenager.

[RD]

Does anyone have an opinion on where Gao stands post-GPF? Helped or Hindered her quest for a team berth? No change?

Well, it's a downward trend she's on and it's not a good sign. She will have some major work to do if she wants to move up from 5th place at nationals.

The key for Gao will be to have a solid short program and hit that 3-3. She's now 1 for 3 on it so far.

I still think Gold and Nagasu are the 2 chief contenders for that 2nd spot, though.

Perhaps...certainly seems like so but with what happened to Wagner, will she even be present (or fit) to defend her title?

I don't think Rachael ever made it past 7th place at Worlds.

she was 5th in 2009

[Sylvia]

It's not a competition, but both Ashley and Alissa are scheduled to perform in the Skating & Gymnastics show in Jamestown, NY this Saturday - link to the event thread in GSD: http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/show...n-Jamestown-NY