The Alissa comparison is a bit closer, but Alissa had more struggles last season than Ashley did this season. And Ashley's never had the kind of meltdown we've seen multiple times from Alissa.
Even if they were similar, it's still too hard to predict. I'm actually not upset that Ashley had some struggles at the GPF and Nationals. It had to happen sometime, and it's better to work through it now than at Worlds. She didn't completely fall apart either, which bodes well for her. I think she's more of a fighter than skaters like Kimmie and Alissa (both of whom I like for different reasons).