^I think between Ashley, Mirai and Gracie at Nationals, odds are 2 of the 3 will deliver at least enough to be on the team. Agnes will only be on the team if she shows she can skate an LP well executed w/ attack and confidence which is how it should be.
Gracie is due to skate a clean LP and if she does i don't see her lower then 2nd unless she totally bombs her SP.
I guess Ashley Wagner has really made it if the Daily Mail in the U.K. has given her a photo spread based on her recent Pandora jewelry press release!
Reader comment at bottom:
"Miss Wagner is any only child of a U.S. Army Lieutenant Colonel and a schoolteacher." No, DM, she is the only daughter of her parents; she has a younger brother, Austin. Please at least do minimal research.
- Maureen , Pitman, United States, 27/12/2012 18:24
Last edited by Sylvia; 12-29-2012 at 08:16 PM.
"Randy [Starkman (1960-April 16, 2012)] lived by the same motto as the rest of us. The Olympics isn’t every four years, it’s every single day. He just got it." --Canadian Olympic kayaker Adam van Koeverden
Does anyone have an opinion of how high Gracie might score in the LP if she skates it clean? Would she be in the 127 - 129 pt. category? Just curious ...
I think Wagner might skip 4cc - just a hunch - to stay home and work on her 3-3. (When has staying home to work on something ever worked?) 4cc team for the US ladies will be Gracie, Mirai and Agnes.
"Puccini cries out for spirals, but really good ones." ~ Dick Button, 1998 Worlds
With 4CC in Japan this year, we may see more US World Team Members opting out of 4CC than we would if it were in North America.
I was fooling around with numbers today (bored). I think the LP scoring potential at Nationals as of today if everyone is clean would be -
Wagner and Gold - 130 pts.
Nagasu - mid 120's
Gao and Czisny - low 120's
Zawadzki - mid 110's
Wang, Zhang and Miller - low 110's
Keep in mind Wang and Miller scored 110 and 109 for their respective FS at the JGPF, they both skated clean, but junior programs are 30 seconds shorter and have no spiral sequence, meaning that's more like 115 for a senior program, and that's disregarding any Nationals PCS inflation they may receive (not to mention PCS for juniors are usually lower anyways). So I think low 110s for those two is a low estimate. I'd guess, for clean programs, approximate FS scores would be:
Wagner - 135
Gold - 130
Gao and Nagasu - 125
Zawadzki and Czisny - 120
Wang, Miller, Cesario - 115-120
Zhang, Lam, Siraj, Keiser - 110-115
Then for clean SPs
70: maybe Wagner if she pulls off a good 3f-3t
65+: Wagner (with 3-2 or 3-3), Gold (with 3f-3t and solo 3lz), Zawadzki (with 3t-3t and solo 3lz)
60-65: Gao (with 3t-3t), Nagasu (with 3t-3t)
60ish: Wang (with 3lz-3t), Cesario (with 3lo-3lo), Zhang (with 3lo-3lo), Miller (with 3lo-2lo - going off of JGPF score), Keiser (with 3lz-3t if the judges really go for her), Siraj (if she hits the 3t-3t as that program is so lovely), Dunne (with 3t-3t, she came close to 60 at sectionals)
I notice that you have Gao kind of high - comparing the SP scores from the Fall, Gao was squeaky clean in her SP at SA w/ a 3-3 but only scored 56+ pts. Whereas Nagasu competing abroad in JPN scored 61+ pts. w/ a wonky 2d 3t on her 3-3. Also, they were similarly scored in the LP - Gao squeaky clean at SA w/ 117 pts. and Nagasu w/ some UR's abroad in JPN had 115+ pts. Makes me think Nagasu would have an advantage...once she tightens up her jumps a bit.
But I agree that Wang and Miller would have potential to be in the mid 110's. I forgot about their JGPF scores while posting.