U.S. Ladies [#6]: "Swaggering with the S'Wagner" et al. into 2013

[RD]

I don't know but I have a feeling Agnes might end up higher than people think.

Only if she can get herself together in the free skate...

[DimaToe]

Only if she can get herself together in the free skate...

Last year her LP only managed 7th place, but she still walked away with a medal, yeah this year's field seems to be deeper than last years, but Agnes can deliver a pretty good SP, at this point I could easily see her in 3rd or 6th.

[worldsnice12]

http://uverseonline.att.net/play/tv/...1215_dec12.mp4

The video does not work for me

[rosewood]

http://uverseonline.att.net/play/tv/...1215_dec12.mp4

It doesn't work for me, either
I'm a big fan of Mirai. Her potentioal is one of the bests ever IMO. Being with a good coaching team hopefully she'll put all together at US Nats.

[smarts1]

I would be very, very surprised if Alissa makes the podium. Her jumps weren't even "there" before her injury.

Still, I could see a 4 triple Alissa beating a 4 triple Caroline Zhang.

I hope Caroline shows up to Nationals well-trained like she was last year. Her SP was a delight. Her FS this season is a total snoozefest and I doubt she'll go back to her cello program for a third season.

I don't know but I have a feeling Agnes might end up higher than people think.

I'm really hoping Agnes isn't held up again this year like last year. I have no clue what the U.S. Nationals judges are thinking. I really wonder sometimes if they even watch figure skating. They hold up all the wrong skaters. Agnes can't hold it together in the LP in a Nationals Championships, let alone a GP, so I really hope that she doesn't get anywhere near the top 2. Imgaine what would happen to her in a pressure packed worlds.

[demetriosj]

I'm really hoping Agnes isn't held up again this year like last year.

Huh? Her short program last year at nationals clearly deserved first place! Who was better?

If anyone was "held up" it was Czisny, but don't get me started!

[olympic]

^I think between Ashley, Mirai and Gracie at Nationals, odds are 2 of the 3 will deliver at least enough to be on the team. Agnes will only be on the team if she shows she can skate an LP well executed w/ attack and confidence which is how it should be.

[Jammers]

Gracie is due to skate a clean LP and if she does i don't see her lower then 2nd unless she totally bombs her SP.

[RD]

Agnes can't hold it together in the LP in a Nationals Championships, let alone a GP, so I really hope that she doesn't get anywhere near the top 2. Imgaine what would happen to her in a pressure packed worlds.

I'll bet she'd do better than 22nd at least.

[Sylvia]

The video does not work for me

It doesn't work for me, either

Do either of you have the required Adobe Flash plug-in installed? ETA: Are you both outside the U.S.?

I guess Ashley Wagner has really made it if the Daily Mail in the U.K. has given her a photo spread based on her recent Pandora jewelry press release!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/ar...t-Pandora.html
Reader comment at bottom:

"Miss Wagner is any only child of a U.S. Army Lieutenant Colonel and a schoolteacher." No, DM, she is the only daughter of her parents; she has a younger brother, Austin. Please at least do minimal research.
- Maureen , Pitman, United States, 27/12/2012 18:24

[lilshorty]

I don't know but I have a feeling Agnes might end up higher than people think.

Me too. Every year at Nationals Agnes improves. In 2011 she was 4th and in 2012 she was 3rd. I wouldn't be surprised if at the upcoming National Championship she placed 2nd.

[smarts1]

Huh? Her short program last year at nationals clearly deserved first place! Who was better?

If anyone was "held up" it was Czisny, but don't get me started!

Her SP was great, but Agnes' LP did not deserved the 59+ or what ever it got for PCS.

[olympic]

Does anyone have an opinion of how high Gracie might score in the LP if she skates it clean? Would she be in the 127 - 129 pt. category? Just curious ...

[Coco]

Me too. Every year at Nationals Agnes improves. In 2011 she was 4th and in 2012 she was 3rd. I wouldn't be surprised if at the upcoming National Championship she placed 2nd.

I think she'll skate better than last year, and earn more points, but finish 4th.

I think Wagner might skip 4cc - just a hunch - to stay home and work on her 3-3. (When has staying home to work on something ever worked?) 4cc team for the US ladies will be Gracie, Mirai and Agnes.

Pure speculation!

[Jenna]

Does anyone have an opinion of how high Gracie might score in the LP if she skates it clean? Would she be in the 127 - 129 pt. category? Just curious ...

I think Gracie could definitely obtain a score in that range with a perfect, 7 triple program.

[Theatregirl1122]

With 4CC in Japan this year, we may see more US World Team Members opting out of 4CC than we would if it were in North America.

[pinky166]

Does anyone have an opinion of how high Gracie might score in the LP if she skates it clean? Would she be in the 127 - 129 pt. category? Just curious ...

At Nationals, yes. Internationally, probably more 125ish for a clean program with 7 triples, and maybe 120 if she's clean but only ends up doing 6 triples. Internationally her PCS are like mid-high 20s for SP and mid-high 50s for FS, so at Nationals that likely means with good skates she'll be 30+ for SP and 60+ for FS. Of course Ashley has gotten PCS marks much higher than that even internationally this season so she's probably heavy edge to beat Gracie even with their respective planned content, but Gracie's PCS should be among the highest after Ashley, my guess is Gold, Gao, Nagasu, Zawadzki, and Czisny because she's a question mark right now, will receive similar PCS at Nats if they skate well, and that these marks will be significantly below a well-skating Ashley, but not so much that Ashley can tank and still win. Maybe like 2-3 points in SP and 4-6 in FS.

[olympic]

^Interesting.

I was fooling around with numbers today (bored). I think the LP scoring potential at Nationals as of today if everyone is clean would be -

Wagner and Gold - 130 pts.
Nagasu - mid 120's
Gao and Czisny - low 120's
Zawadzki - mid 110's
Wang, Zhang and Miller - low 110's

[pinky166]

Keep in mind Wang and Miller scored 110 and 109 for their respective FS at the JGPF, they both skated clean, but junior programs are 30 seconds shorter and have no spiral sequence, meaning that's more like 115 for a senior program, and that's disregarding any Nationals PCS inflation they may receive (not to mention PCS for juniors are usually lower anyways). So I think low 110s for those two is a low estimate. I'd guess, for clean programs, approximate FS scores would be:

Wagner - 135
Gold - 130
Gao and Nagasu - 125
Zawadzki and Czisny - 120
Wang, Miller, Cesario - 115-120
Zhang, Lam, Siraj, Keiser - 110-115

Then for clean SPs

70: maybe Wagner if she pulls off a good 3f-3t
65+: Wagner (with 3-2 or 3-3), Gold (with 3f-3t and solo 3lz), Zawadzki (with 3t-3t and solo 3lz)
60-65: Gao (with 3t-3t), Nagasu (with 3t-3t)
60ish: Wang (with 3lz-3t), Cesario (with 3lo-3lo), Zhang (with 3lo-3lo), Miller (with 3lo-2lo - going off of JGPF score), Keiser (with 3lz-3t if the judges really go for her), Siraj (if she hits the 3t-3t as that program is so lovely), Dunne (with 3t-3t, she came close to 60 at sectionals)

[olympic]

I notice that you have Gao kind of high - comparing the SP scores from the Fall, Gao was squeaky clean in her SP at SA w/ a 3-3 but only scored 56+ pts. Whereas Nagasu competing abroad in JPN scored 61+ pts. w/ a wonky 2d 3t on her 3-3. Also, they were similarly scored in the LP - Gao squeaky clean at SA w/ 117 pts. and Nagasu w/ some UR's abroad in JPN had 115+ pts. Makes me think Nagasu would have an advantage...once she tightens up her jumps a bit.

But I agree that Wang and Miller would have potential to be in the mid 110's. I forgot about their JGPF scores while posting.