U.S. Ladies [#6]: "Swaggering with the S'Wagner" et al. into 2013

[icellist]

Let's please not revisit "Tibia-gate" again... maybe start a new thread in the Trash Can if you really care that much!

Well, I wasn't talking about Tibia gate persay, just the scoring for the FS at 2011 nats between Mirai and Rachael

[mgobluegirl]

I really hope Cain doesn't get sent to JW since she doesn't have a reliable 3F. USFS seems to love her though and she gets marked very highly when she skates well.

[victoriaheidi]

Can we make a list of the juniors with reliable enough 3Fs? I don't follow all of them closely enough.

[olympic]

Is there a list of top SP's for US ladies this season?

[jlai]

Going by junior grand prix results...

Cain did her 3 Flip and loop combo in the short during her one jgp, but seemed to have trouble landing many triples in the long at that event (3 falls) (She is stronger in edge jumps). Pattern seemed to continue in sectionals.

Lam did her flip in the short but messed up the lutz at that same jgp; she did quite a few triples in the long but only the triple toe got positive goe. She just missed getting a second jgp.

Courtney Hicks hasn't been very consistent in the short program this season, though the issue seemed to be the loop, not the flip. (I don't think she's had a clean short this season.) Long program seemed fine from what I recall.

Baga fell on her flip and did a 3t/2t with -goe in JGP Lake Placid. Long program just okay. I wonder if she's shifting her focus to pairs. (She didn't get a second jgp)

Wang messed up her short program (two jump issues) in Lake Placid but did a great one in her second jgp. The long program in both events was great.

Hannah Miller did a clean short in her first jgp but not the second one (messed up the loop). Her long program was also better at her first jgp.

Cesario skated very well in both long and short when she wasn't having an injury (like in her first jgp and sectionals, but she skated with an injury at her second jgp and withdrew).

Keiser did fairly well in the short program at both jgp events despite negative goes in her jumps (negative goe in her flip and 3/3). She did well in the long in her first jgp but came 7th in the free skate in the second event). We'll see if she can get some positive goes in the jgpf.

Barbie Long got her 3 flip downgraded in her one jgp event but did a triple-triple combo and landed about 5 triples in the long.

Wang, Keiser and Miller will be at the JGPF

[Sylvia]

The ISU keeps a list of short program SB scores - here are the 13 U.S. ladies above 50 points in GP/JGP so far: (only Long is competing Jr. at Nationals):
3 63.09 Ashley WAGNER USA ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2012 16.11.2012
5 62.16 Gracie GOLD USA ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 09.11.2012
7 61.18 Mirai NAGASU USA ISU GP NHK Trophy 2012 23.11.2012
10 60.18 Agnes ZAWADZKI USA ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 09.11.2012
15 58.47 Angela WANG USA ISU JGP Croatia Cup 2012 04.10.2012
20 56.63 Christina GAO USA ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2012 20.10.2012
21 55.47 Hannah MILLER USA ISU JGP Austria 2012 14.09.2012
22 55.14 Leah KEISER USA ISU JGP Pokal d. Blauen Schwerter 2012 11.10.2012
27 54.38 Samantha CESARIO USA ISU JGP Austria 2012 14.09.2012
34 52.97 Caroline ZHANG USA ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 26.10.2012
38 52.24 Barbie LONG USA ISU JGP Sencila Bled Cup 2012 27.09.2012 (JR in US)
41 51.36 Courtney HICKS USA ISU JGP Lake Placid 2012 31.08.2012
42 51.31 Ashley CAIN USA ISU JGP Courchevel 2012 23.08.2012

ETA:

Zawadzki's SP high score internationally so far this season is 65.24 (Salt Lake Senior B in Sept.) but it's not counted on the ISU SB list.

I was comparing scores at different GP events (which is never 100% accurate, but personally it gives me a baseline to go off of). I would never compare sectional scores to scores at an important, international events. So, Vanessa's score is not to be considered.

I think I know what you mean, but skating well and cleanly at any competition deserves some credit and consideration, IMO. Lam only scored 48.40 in her SP at the Courchevel JGP but she skated a clean SP at Sectionals in Nov. (3Lz+2Lo, 2A, 3F, 3 level 4 spins & footwork) and scored 59.43, so she is capable of a good score when she executes well.

[pinky166]

Barbie Long usually gets edge calls on her 3f, which explains why her SP scores aren't higher considering her 3lz-3t is pretty consistent. Polina Edmunds has a pretty consistent 3f that doesn't usually get edge calls, and it's strong enough that she attempts, and usually pulls off, a 3f-3t in her FS.

Kiri and Ashley don't really have the technical content to garner being sent to JW IMO, Kiri is only really consistent with 3t and 3s, she doesn't attempt 3lo, historically 2a has given her trouble, and her 3lz and 3f are iffy. Cain has a strong 3lo and 3s, and sometimes the 3lz works for her, but 3f is arguably her weakest triple so that's a concern regarding JW.

Vanessa and Hannah can do the harder triples, but Lam has a bad flutz and both girls have very small jumps which garner minimal GOE at best, sometimes negative even, and neither has a 3-3.

Hicks is prone to mistakes but is capable of 3-3s and I don't think she usually gets edge calls on her lutz or flip. 3f is usually a strong jump for her.

Keiser has 3lz-3t but the 3t is pretty much always UR. She can do 3f and the other triples, but is hit or miss when it comes to landing or cleanly executing them.

Angela Wang and Samatha both have big jumps and can do all the triples. Samantha has a 3flutz but I don't think Angela has edge issues on either jumps, 3f is a strong jump for both girls. Angela has 3lz-3t that is pretty consistent and Samantha has talked about 3lo-3lo so maybe we'll see that at Nationals.

Mariah Bell can do all the triples but no 3-3 and her jumps are small and not always consistent.

I'd say the best JW team would be Angela, Samantha, and either Polina or Barbie (whoever places higher at Nationals), or if Samantha were to get 4CC instead, then Angela, Polina, and Barbie could go. If they want to stick to the senior ladies at Nationals, then Miller and Keiser probably have the next best chances of making this. And this is excluding the possibility that Gracie (or I guess Agnes and Christina are still technically age eligible) gets sent, because if she's like 5th or 6th at Nationals she'll likely be offered the spot first even if she decides to decline.

[mgobluegirl]

Barbie Long usually gets edge calls on her 3f, which explains why her SP scores aren't higher considering her 3lz-3t is pretty consistent. Polina Edmunds has a pretty consistent 3f that doesn't usually get edge calls, and it's strong enough that she attempts, and usually pulls off, a 3f-3t in her FS.

...

Hicks is prone to mistakes but is capable of 3-3s and I don't think she usually gets edge calls on her lutz or flip. 3f is usually a strong jump for her.

Angela Wang and Samatha both have big jumps and can do all the triples. Samantha has a 3flutz but I don't think Angela has edge issues on either jumps, 3f is a strong jump for both girls. Angela has 3lz-3t that is pretty consistent and Samantha has talked about 3lo-3lo so maybe we'll see that at Nationals.

...

I'd say the best JW team would be Angela, Samantha, and either Polina or Barbie (whoever places higher at Nationals), or if Samantha were to get 4CC instead, then Angela, Polina, and Barbie could go. If they want to stick to the senior ladies at Nationals, then Miller and Keiser probably have the next best chances of making this. And this is excluding the possibility that Gracie (or I guess Agnes and Christina are still technically age eligible) gets sent, because if she's like 5th or 6th at Nationals she'll likely be offered the spot first even if she decides to decline.

Hicks has historically had a huge flutz, IIRC. She's attempting loop in the SP this year along with the required flip because of that.

I'm inclined to say that none of the US Nationals Junior Ladies competitors are going to be sent to JW this year, save for perhaps Barbie Long if she wins in convincing fashion. Edmunds attempts some ambitious content, but is frequently dinged with UR calls, so her score can vary within a very wide range for a "clean" program depending on how strict the caller is. She still has a very raw awkwardness to much of her skating, so I doubt PCS will be very high internationally. Long's PCS have improved this year, but she's still less polished IMO than Wang, Miller, Keiser, Baga, Lam, Cain, etc. Additionally, since Edmunds wasn't sent to a JGP this year (and I still think that's a mistake on USFS' part), she'd have to be sent to a junior 'B' international between nationals and JW in order to be eligible. I think that's a bigger investment than USFS is going to make; there are a large number of strong, JW age-eligible skaters to send instead. While Edmunds has turned some heads this year with her technical content, she hasn't been consistently so fantastic this year (a la Zawadzki 2010, Hicks 2011 and Gold 2012) to warrant being sent over the other skaters.

My predictions for JW team: Wang, Cesario, Miller. Possibly Lam (she tends to skate well domestically and has had a lot of time to prepare for nationals).

[Triple Butz]

Hicks has historically had a huge flutz, IIRC. She's attempting loop in the SP this year along with the required flip because of that.

That was true in the past, but she has corrected the issue this season. The jump is less consistent but she got credit for a true lutz at her first JGP event and at Sectionals.

[olympic]

The ISU keeps a list of short program SB scores - here are the 13 U.S. ladies above 50 points in GP/JGP so far: (only Long is competing Jr. at Nationals):
3 63.09 Ashley WAGNER USA ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2012 16.11.2012
5 62.16 Gracie GOLD USA ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 09.11.2012
7 61.18 Mirai NAGASU USA ISU GP NHK Trophy 2012 23.11.2012
10 60.18 Agnes ZAWADZKI USA ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 09.11.2012
15 58.47 Angela WANG USA ISU JGP Croatia Cup 2012 04.10.2012
20 56.63 Christina GAO USA ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2012 20.10.2012
21 55.47 Hannah MILLER USA ISU JGP Austria 2012 14.09.2012
22 55.14 Leah KEISER USA ISU JGP Pokal d. Blauen Schwerter 2012 11.10.2012
27 54.38 Samantha CESARIO USA ISU JGP Austria 2012 14.09.2012
34 52.97 Caroline ZHANG USA ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 26.10.2012
38 52.24 Barbie LONG USA ISU JGP Sencila Bled Cup 2012 27.09.2012 (JR in US)
41 51.36 Courtney HICKS USA ISU JGP Lake Placid 2012 31.08.2012
42 51.31 Ashley CAIN USA ISU JGP Courchevel 2012 23.08.2012

ETA:

Zawadzki's SP high score internationally so far this season is 65.24 (Salt Lake Senior B in Sept.) but it's not counted on the ISU SB list.

I think the final group for the LP at Nationals could be -

Wagner - a good 3f-3t puts her in the driver's seat at Nationals. A clean 3f-2t puts her in a much tighter competition w/ the next 3. Perhaps leading, perhaps very close behind to any of the next 3.
Gold - a possible leader after the SP if no 3-3 from Ashley. Otherwise 2nd - 4th
Nagasu - see above. Otherwise, 2nd -4th
Zawadzki - see above. Otherwise, 2nd - 4th
Gao - will be closer to the above 4 than the Fall scores suggest. I think being a GPF finalist will help close some of that gap.
Wang or Czisny (if she can skate competently by January) - interesting scenario; what if Czisny skates a clean SP complete w/ all the style and beautiful spins? Will the judges put her in the mix for the title? She'll definitely be in the final group w/ a good score. Wang is the top US junior and would be my pick to be in the final group if Czisny has problems.

-----

The penultimate group could be a bunch of Juniors

Wang or Czisny - a botched performance by Czisny will still get her enough decent PCS to be in the penultimate group. As stated, Wang is probably the best of the Juniors
Cesario - if healthy, bigger jumps and nice choreography will IMO put her above all of the other juniors. Being a newcomer to Senior Nats might hold her back just a little.
Lam - usually very solid in the SP at Nats, but Cesario and Wang are generally more impressive this year and Lam has proven to be uneven.
Miller - smaller jumps, but pretty solid
Keiser - better than last year and ambitious, but prone to UR and needs more time to skate like a senior
Zhang- could be anywhere from the final group to worse than the penultimate group. I can't read her right now. Some have said she does much better later in the season

------

Dunne - ETA - I didn't see she did so well in the SP at sectionals. Could be a factor, but I think Hicks and Cain have more international exposure and will get more props
Hicks - if she is indeed being more strategic to remove the 3z, she could be in the penultimate group ahead of a flawed Zhang or even Keiser w/ UR's
Cain - I don't think she's penultimate group material yet but she is improving by virtue of her Sectionals performance
Baga - pleasant skater, but she's now spreading out into Pairs and doesn't have big moves. I don't see her doing much on the singles front this year.

It seems to be shaking out into an easier to define pecking order than in the past.

ETA - Reading Sylvia's post below,

Siraj - in danger of just disappearing from the ranks of the top ladies.
Bereswill - has been a fair-to-middling skater for the last few years, but also pretty disastrous at times. I don't see her among the top skaters at nationals
Forte - at this stage is probably just skating for the helluvit, for herself, w/o any thought to being a top lady

[Sylvia]

Sectionals SP - Senior Ladies:
59.43 Lam 3Lz2Lo, 2A, 3F
58.20 Dunne 3Lz2T, 3F, 2A (Haley has had several good SP performances this season)
57.80 Cesario 3F2T, 2A, 3Lo
57.80 Hicks 3F3T -1.58, 3Lo, 2A
55.83 Cain 3Lo2T, 3S, 2A
51.69 Bereswill 3Lz2T, 3S, 2A (comeback season - Becky's last Nationals in singles was in 2010)
51.06 Baga 3F< -2.10, 3T2T, 2A
48.88 Siraj 3T2T, 1Lz, 2A (Yasmin is very capable of a good SP score when she skates clean)
48.18 Forte 3Lz2T, 3S, 2A

ETA that Dunne, Bereswill and Siraj have all shown significant improvements during the course of this season, IMO.

[Sylvia]

Re-posting from the GPF and JGP forums in Kiss and Cry...

Rejuvenated Gao 'honored' to be with sport's elite: http://www.icenetwork.com/news/artic...&vkey=ice_news (includes a quote by Wagner at the end)

Another Michigan article on Hannah Miller (includes video): http://www.lansingstatejournal.com/a...compete-Russia

[aftershocks]

This local feature on Gracie (after 2012 Nationals) I just discovered:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZJgwazj_88

[Marco]

Sectionals SP - Senior Ladies:
59.43 Lam 3Lz2Lo, 2A, 3F
58.20 Dunne 3Lz2T, 3F, 2A (Haley has had several good SP performances this season)
57.80 Cesario 3F2T, 2A, 3Lo
57.80 Hicks 3F3T -1.58, 3Lo, 2A
55.83 Cain 3Lo2T, 3S, 2A
51.69 Bereswill 3Lz2T, 3S, 2A (comeback season - Becky's last Nationals in singles was in 2010)
51.06 Baga 3F< -2.10, 3T2T, 2A
48.88 Siraj 3T2T, 1Lz, 2A (Yasmin is very capable of a good SP score when she skates clean)
48.18 Forte 3Lz2T, 3S, 2A

ETA that Dunne, Bereswill and Siraj have all shown significant improvements during the course of this season, IMO.

Tough Sectionals! Doesn't look like Baga will make it this time Here's hoping Cesario and Hicks to hang in there!

[chipso1]

Tough Sectionals! Doesn't look like Baga will make it this time Here's hoping Cesario and Hicks to hang in there!

Those are the Nationals qualifiers; all of those ladies will be competing in Omaha.

[Marco]

Those are the Nationals qualifiers; all of those ladies will be competing in Omaha.

Oh of course.

What was I thinking?

[kwanatic]

Any news about whether Kiira Korpi will be participating in the Final? Word is she's having back problems...if she withdraws, that means Mirai would be headed to Sochi. Granted, it may be too late at this point...

[Theatregirl1122]

It would definitely be too late at this point.

[RD]

The women's SP is Friday afternoon (early Fri morning here in the US) if I'm not mistaken. FAR too late to fly in any replacement at this point.

[Sylvia]

Kiira Korpi Official ‏@kiirakorpi_fi tweeted earlier today:
"Back cramps and stomach flu, not a perfect way to get prepared for the GP final, BUT I survived and now I'm on my way to Sochi! Yes!!!"

As the next alternate, Nagasu was supposed to be on stand-by until noon Sochi time on Monday, Dec, 3rd.

The coaches of Angela Wang, Hannah Miller, and Leah Keiser had some nice things to say about their students in this JGP Final preview article: http://web.icenetwork.com/news/artic...&vkey=ice_news