View Poll Results: Which of these 3 skaters is most likely to win the Olympic Ladies competition?

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100. You may not vote on this poll
  • Ashley Wagner

    58 58.00%
  • Carolina Kostner

    30 30.00%
  • Akiko Suzuki

    12 12.00%
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  1. #21

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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    Lets just say pretty much all of us think you drastically overrate Akiko's chances.
    The only person that has said anything negative about Suzuki so far is you - your being presumptuous.

    We will just have to agree to disagree

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maofan7 View Post
    The only person that has said anything negative about Suzuki so far is you - your being presumptuous.
    The poll results speak for themselves. I am also not being negative on her, I am being realistic. Do you really think she is in anyone elses top 3 for the Olympic Gold at this point, other than maybe the very very rare extreme Suzuki fan.

  3. #23

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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    The poll results speak for themselves. I am also not being negative on her, I am being realistic. Do you really think she is in anyone elses top 3 for the Olympic Gold at this point, other than maybe the very very rare extreme Suzuki fan.
    Well, I respect your opinion, although I disagree with it. Hence, as stated, we will just have to agree to disagree

  4. #24
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    I fully believe Yuna will compete again. But I don't necessarily believe:

    1. That she'll be as good, technically, as she was in Vancouver;
    2. That she's untouchable; or
    3. That she has the best chance of anyone who's competing, especially because she placed 2nd at the other competitions she's done post-Olympics

    That's all just my opinion, though. I just think it doesn't seem logical that someone who's been out of competition for 2 (or more...by the time she competes, if she doesn't do Worlds this year) years will swoop in and dominate over these other skaters who've all done pretty well this quad.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by victoriaheidi View Post
    I fully believe Yuna will compete again. But I don't necessarily believe:

    1. That she'll be as good, technically, as she was in Vancouver;
    2. That she's untouchable; or
    3. That she has the best chance of anyone who's competing, especially because she placed 2nd at the other competitions she's done post-Olympics

    That's all just my opinion, though. I just think it doesn't seem logical that someone who's been out of competition for 2 (or more...by the time she competes, if she doesn't do Worlds this year) years will swoop in and dominate over these other skaters who've all done pretty well this quad.
    The level of ladies skating this quad has been extremely low for what you expect from the best in the World. The last 2 Worlds were both a joke, and a 55% Yu Na very nearly won in 2011. She definitely does NOT need even close to her Vancouver level to win today. Of course most of us acknowledge she probably wont even get close to that, and the difficulties in her coming back potentially, hence why we are giving odds like 20 and 25%, which still could easily be the highest odds of anyone today. If we expected her Vancouver level it would be 110% to win in Sochi vs the current field.

  6. #26
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    It is rather sad that two of the favorites for Gold might be skaters 26 or older and in Kostner's case someone who has already been to two Olympics and has never medaled. I can't remember the last time in the new Olympic cycle that the favorites haven't been skaters who weren't at the last Olympics.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    The level of ladies skating this quad has been extremely low for what you expect from the best in the World. The last 2 Worlds were both a joke, and a 55% Yu Na very nearly won in 2011. She definitely does NOT need even close to her Vancouver level to win today. Of course most of us acknowledge she probably wont even get close to that, and the difficulties in her coming back potentially, hence why we are giving odds like 20 and 25%, which still could easily be the highest odds of anyone today. If we expected her Vancouver level it would be 110% to win in Sochi vs the current field.
    I know it wasn't the most technically brilliant quad, but I certainly didn't think it was that terrible.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    It is rather sad that two of the favorites for Gold might be skaters 26 or older and in Kostner's case someone who has already been to two Olympics and has never medaled. I can't remember the last time in the new Olympic cycle that the favorites haven't been skaters who weren't at the last Olympics.
    If I understand this correctly (I'm tired), 1998.

  8. #28
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    Kwan was in Lillehammer as an alternate so that makes a little impact and adds a wrinkle so almost maybe.

  9. #29
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    Rochette was in Torino but of course Mao and Yuna weren't

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cherub721 View Post
    The fact that this is the list of ladies with the best chances to win OGM is so depressing, lmao.

    I am starting to think Kostner has a chance even with no lutz. It's like Buttle in 2008 with no quad. It was seen as a fluke, and when he retired people were like "that's smart, he probably can't win the Olympics with that content." But then Lysacek won without it and without even having Buttle's transitions, artistry, and skating skills. And Plushenko came back being all "bitch please, I can beat them all" and Lysacek still didn't do a quad and Plush was so sure of himself that he didn't try his second quad, and Lysacek beat him because the judges totally didn't care anymore.

    So we have Buttle = Kostner (artistic headcase who considered retiring after winning Worlds), Plush = Kim (reigning OGM who dips their toes into the water when it looks like they can repeat), and Lysacek = As yet undetermined female skater who lacks technical difficulty but is good at ticking off PCS boxes but not considered amazingly artistic... Korpi? Wagner? [Ok, they have the lutz, but Wagner has no 3-3 and Korpi is not consistent at all] Maybe Czisny should take out the lutz, attempt only one flip, and score her points on spins and PCS with pretty/empty programs. Seriously.
    This all sounds very reasonable. Thinking more about I wondered about all the incredible controversy that developed around plushenko's 2006 win. Not at the time but subsequently. So Yuna wouldn't face any criticism of how she won the first time and would only need to do what she would have to do to win and not actually improve anything.

    The issues of lacking something that was needed in the past didn't matter in men's and hast in ladies the past two years. People who are doing 3/3's and lutz are not getting the points to win! PCS for kostner and consistency for ando has mattered most. Headed in the same direction with Wagner.

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cherub721 View Post
    The fact that this is the list of ladies with the best chances to win OGM is so depressing, lmao.
    I know, right? Anyway, the picture will be a lot clearer after Worlds and I doubt either Kostner or Suzuki will still even be in the equation when it comes to OGM favorites.

  12. #32

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    It is going to be interesting if someone sets up a poll about whether Yuna is coming back or not and see what happens in December.

  13. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by l'etoile View Post
    It is going to be interesting if someone sets up a poll about whether Yuna is coming back or not and see what happens in December.
    I don't understand why some people think she isn't coming back. Since Vancouver, whenever she said she will compete when most doubted she would, (2010 and 2011 Worlds) she showed up. Judging by her past consistency with announcements, I'd say she is serious again with all the press conferences about the comeback, program choices, and coaches. I think she herself said recently that she is 70% ready when it comes to her technical level and honestly, that's enough at this point.

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maofan7 View Post
    As for Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, Lipnitskaya, Gold, Osmond, and the various other newbies, they need time to get through their various growth issues and to get there PCS levels up.
    If Leonova could get average PCS in the mid 7s at Worlds that isn't in Russia, why couldn't the better Russian girls get average PCS in the mid 8s at the Olympics that is in Russia?

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marco View Post
    If Leonova could get average PCS in the mid 7s at Worlds that isn't in Russia, why couldn't the better Russian girls get average PCS in the mid 8s at the Olympics that is in Russia?
    Maybe because while they may be more reliable technically (especially at the moment with Leonova out of it this early season), none of the wonderbabies deserve a 8 in choreography, let alone interpretation, even with local inflation?

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by rayhaneh View Post
    Maybe because while they may be more reliable technically (especially at the moment with Leonova out of it this early season), none of the wonderbabies deserve a 8 in choreography, let alone interpretation, even with local inflation?
    Yeah Leonova didn't deserve anything above 6 either, didn't stop her getting mid 7s.

  17. #37
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    Yuna is just going through the motions. If she was really serious about skating she would enter more competitions. Even someone has good as her was not the same skater at Worlds in 2011 because she hadn't competed in a year. Now its going to be almost two years until she skates again in competition. She's only skating because her federation needs her to get the spots for Worlds and especially the Olympics.

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    Yuna is just going through the motions. If she was really serious about skating she would enter more competitions. Even someone has good as her was not the same skater at Worlds in 2011 because she hadn't competed in a year. Now its going to be almost two years until she skates again in competition. She's only skating because her federation needs her to get the spots for Worlds and especially the Olympics.
    It's a good idea to skate at 4CCs this time around if she is ready.

  19. #39
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    I guess I would have to say Ashley...but I really don't want to jinx her. Honestly, I feel like it's a complete toss up. The Russian wonderbabies, don't seem to be the threat I originally thought. Yuna is a huge ???. I am certainly not counting her out. I guess the front runners would be Ashley, Carolina, and Mao. I really feel that Mao is on the upswing. I also feel that Agnes, Gracie and Mirai can definetly compete with the Russian girls but I don't see them making the podium. Gold/Silver (Ashley, Carolina or Mao), Bronze...possibly..Liza, Julia, Gracie, Adelina, or Agnes...Osmond??

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    Hmm interesting. 0 for Lipnitskaia seems a bit harsh but then again the Olympics will be her major senior event debut, unless one counts the GP final this year. She definitely needs alot of improvement but her consistency is a huge asset. She could pull a Sarah hughes, but then again she seems to already be losing her consistency in the grand prix this season. Errors kept her from finishing one spot higher in both her grand prix assignments.
    For the three Russians I was just going by jumping ability. I actually should have given less to Tuk and a bit more to Wagner. I put Lipnitskaia at 0% because I've been watching and teaching skating long enough to know if jumps are going to survive puberty. She'll be lucky to make it through the year, she's already degressing. It's unfortunate to say, but the jumping ability isn't there. Tuk has the ability to survive puberty (she's doing just that right now), and so does Sotnikova so that's why I put them in the mix. The problem is neither will likely have the maturity it will take to win OGM. Therefore I should have marked them down a bit.

    The world wants a mature ladies OGM, that's my prediction of what will win. Therefore it will be a Kim, Wagner, Asada, Kostner toss-up I think.

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