Which of these 3 skaters is most likely to win the Olympic Ladies competition?

[riveredge]

This all sounds very reasonable. Thinking more about I wondered about all the incredible controversy that developed around plushenko's 2006 win. Not at the time but subsequently. So Yuna wouldn't face any criticism of how she won the first time and would only need to do what she would have to do to win and not actually improve anything.

The issues of lacking something that was needed in the past didn't matter in men's and hast in ladies the past two years. People who are doing 3/3's and lutz are not getting the points to win! PCS for kostner and consistency for ando has mattered most. Headed in the same direction with Wagner.

THIS. Heck, i'm even rooting for mao to get her act together (assuming that yuna doesn't compete) and won. at least mao is attempting difficult jumps rather than going safe like most of the skaters today.

you can win without 3/3 and still won. meh.

[briancoogaert]

THIS. Heck, i'm even rooting for mao to get her act together (assuming that yuna doesn't compete) and won. at least mao is attempting difficult jumps rather than going safe like most of the skaters today.

you can win without 3/3 and still won. meh.

LOL, from what we have seen this season, Mao doesn't attempt difficult jumps anymore !

[rayhaneh]

LOL, from what we have seen this season, Mao doesn't attempt difficult jumps anymore !

Depends on what you call by "attempting": she did have all triples in her free program at CoC (well, not the triple axel, but since no one else is attempting it, I don't think it should count), but popped the lutz and underrotated both her flips (as well as the one in her SP). She didn't have a 3+3 combination, however

[antmanb]

Where's the none of the above option

[love_skate2011]

For the three Russians I was just going by jumping ability. I actually should have given less to Tuk and a bit more to Wagner. I put Lipnitskaia at 0% because I've been watching and teaching skating long enough to know if jumps are going to survive puberty. She'll be lucky to make it through the year, she's already degressing. It's unfortunate to say, but the jumping ability isn't there. Tuk has the ability to survive puberty (she's doing just that right now), and so does Sotnikova so that's why I put them in the mix. The problem is neither will likely have the maturity it will take to win OGM. Therefore I should have marked them down a bit.

The world wants a mature ladies OGM, that's my prediction of what will win. Therefore it will be a Kim, Wagner, Asada, Kostner toss-up I think.

I don't think Julia is regressing at all, she won Finlandia but unfortunately has been injured
but tiny jumps doesn't always mean you will lose them ( her jumps arent that tiny as some forumers here would like),
Julia if Im correct competed in TEB injured and she lost less than a point to Liza on a bad day, true their time might be 2018 not 2014
These girl might not be ready with just another year to prepare

[Jammers]

The younger girls have come along to late to be a factor for Sochi i think. Mao and Kim came along the next season after the 2006 Olympics and had time to develop and take over from the older Ladies. So we will get a less then stellar Olympic champion in 2014 with the older Ladies we have now. I mean lets face it Kostner is a two time loser at the Olympics and should have been passed up and retired by now.

[love_skate2011]

The younger girls have come along to late to be a factor for Sochi i think. Mao and Kim came along the next season after the 2006 Olympics and had time to develop and take over from the older Ladies. So we will get a less then stellar Olympic champion in 2014 with the older Ladies we have now. I mean lets face it Kostner is a two time loser at the Olympics and should have been passed up and retired by now.

ikr, like some of the contenders for 2014 are 2 time Olympians already, that says alot of the current ladies field

unfortunately, it will be hard even for Bronze at Olympics for the younger girls because they sprung up a bit late in mid 2011 Season and have little time for experience I'm sure by 2018, Gracie, Liza , Julia, Zijun etc. will have enough experience and will have their time

[cbd1235]

I don't think Julia is regressing at all, she won Finlandia but unfortunately has been injured
but tiny jumps doesn't always mean you will lose them ( her jumps arent that tiny as some forumers here would like),
Julia if Im correct competed in TEB injured and she lost less than a point to Liza on a bad day, true their time might be 2018 not 2014
These girl might not be ready with just another year to prepare

I know she's been injured but her jump technique isn't sound. I was referring to bringing her leg through (or lack thereof) on axel sal and toe, and missing the lift in her left knee on loop, flip, lutz. The reality is that if a pre-pubescent girl does not learn to create lift with her free foot before she grows, she will lose (or have difficulty with) her jumps. Tuk and Sotnikova both are excellent at creating lift with their free foots, that's actually the only reason both can still rotate triples with more mature bodies.

I sincerely hope her coaches address this, it is absolutely necessary.

[emma1227]

Do you think Korpi is a factor?

[sk8ingcoach]

If Yuna is committed to her return then she is probably a sure win.If Kostner can find the motivation she could easily place 2nd behind Kim even without a lutz. For sure there is going to be a fight for the bronze. At the way things are going Wagner would get third but you can never count out Asada, Suzuki, Ando, Tuk and Gold.

[love_skate2011]

I know she's been injured but her jump technique isn't sound. I was referring to bringing her leg through (or lack thereof) on axel sal and toe, and missing the lift in her left knee on loop, flip, lutz. The reality is that if a pre-pubescent girl does not learn to create lift with her free foot before she grows, she will lose (or have difficulty with) her jumps. Tuk and Sotnikova both are excellent at creating lift with their free foots, that's actually the only reason both can still rotate triples with more mature bodies.

I sincerely hope her coaches address this, it is absolutely necessary.

I think she already is, her flip is bigger and I read that she was working on her free foot wen she was injured
Julia's Toe is fine but her 2A needs work though its ugly and atrocious.

Do you think Korpi is a factor?

good question, I say her PCS is a factor

[l'etoile]

Re Julia, the fact that Mao, who had one of the biggest jumps in her early years, is now struggling with jumps is telling a lot for her.

[love_skate2011]

Re Julia, the fact that Mao, who had one of the biggest jumps in her early years, is now struggling with jumps is telling a lot for her.

I don't think Mao had big jumps at all, Yuna certainly had huge height of her jumps, Mao was average her problems now are more of UR, Liza has bigger jumps, Julia's possible problem could be how to control her rotation because she rotates so fast and may not be able to control it in the future, big jumps is not a guarantee, look at Adelina, huge jumps but can't skate a decent clean jumps atm.

everyone thought Liza would lose all her jumps if she fills out, but look at her now ? though attributed to Liza has superb jump technique, Julia has good technique also except for her 2A and Salchow, her flip has improved imo

[museksk8r]

Clearly Ashley Wagner . . . she is the most entitled skater, after all.

Realistically, I would not bet against Kostner and, besides, she deserves to finally have her Olympic moment to shine. Historically, she has had some of her best skates and results in Russia (think 2005 and 2011 Worlds where she won her 2 World bronze medals).

If Yu-Na Kim's comeback is serious, then she is definitely a contender.

A podium of Kim, Kostner, and Wagner seems probable at this point.

Of the young guns, Elizaveta appears to have the most momentum to create the upset amongst those 3 for the podium.

[briancoogaert]

everyone thought Liza would lose all her jumps if she fills out, but look at her now ? though attributed to Liza has superb jump technique, Julia has good technique also except for her 2A and Salchow, her flip has improved imo

I'm afraid it's not the case. And her loop is not better than Toe, Salchow, Lutz and Axel, it's done with the arms (ala Zhang).

[Marco]

Do you think Korpi is a factor?

I do. But not so much with the title, but a top 5 finish if she skates well. Like Lepisto in 2010.

It's a BIG, BIG IF, I know. Lepisto managed to save her best performance for Vancouver. Hopefully Korpi still has it in her to do the same in Sochi. A clean short with a 3/3 and a solid long with 5 or so triples will get her top 5.

[os168]

What a weird poll. Surely a blip in the memory in view of the future to come. Unless it is a subtle poll to propagate the unthinkable - this time last year that Ashley/US interests might even *gasp* be a real contender!

No Russians? No Yuna no Mao? Also those who has been going on about Akiko too old, but Carolina is only 2 years younger, and given all her injuries troubles last year, would she able to match the Olympic standards of technical sporting standards? If she wins the Olympics based on last year's performance, sorry to say but this 'sport' might as well get chucked out for Cronyism.

[Vash01]

For the three Russians I was just going by jumping ability. I actually should have given less to Tuk and a bit more to Wagner. I put Lipnitskaia at 0% because I've been watching and teaching skating long enough to know if jumps are going to survive puberty. She'll be lucky to make it through the year, she's already degressing. It's unfortunate to say, but the jumping ability isn't there. Tuk has the ability to survive puberty (she's doing just that right now), and so does Sotnikova so that's why I put them in the mix. The problem is neither will likely have the maturity it will take to win OGM. Therefore I should have marked them down a bit.

The world wants a mature ladies OGM, that's my prediction of what will win. Therefore it will be a Kim, Wagner, Asada, Kostner toss-up I think.

I would not make that prediction about Liza. In 2002 Sarah Hughes clearly did not have the maturity to win the OGM. Before the competition we were discussing her chances of her winning the bronze, as her best shot. In 1998 Tara was not exactly 'mature'. She was just a jumping bean with a huge smile and energy. If Liza can land her jumps, there is no reason to count her out. I am not saying she will win the OGM, but she should be in the mix. I would not put Sotnikova in the mix only because she does not seem to really compete. I don't see a fire in her. Julia has the fire, but as you say, she is likely to lose her jumps, and they already are rather smalll. I don't think she lost her last competition because she is already losing the jumps, but because this kind of pressure- of leading after the SP in the senior ranks- is new to her. I see it more as a mental problem which can be worked through, but she may not have the time to work through everything, given that Sochi is just 14-15 months away.

I also disagree with you that a mature lady will win because 'the world' wants it. It depends on how they skate and how the judges see it. Where was the world in 1998 and 2002? In 2006 a mature lady won with a so so jump content because there was no 16 year old around to challenge her.

Yu na was a natural artist, and it was not surprising that she was a complete skater at a young age in 2010, as was Michelle at age 17, in 1998 (but she did not win).

[Vash01]

Clearly Ashley Wagner . . . she is the most entitled skater, after all.

Realistically, I would not bet against Kostner and, besides, she deserves to finally have her Olympic moment to shine. Historically, she has had some of her best skates and results in Russia (think 2005 and 2011 Worlds where she won her 2 World bronze medals).

If Yu-Na Kim's comeback is serious, then she is definitely a contender.

A podium of Kim, Kostner, and Wagner seems probable at this point.

Of the young guns, Elizaveta appears to have the most momentum to create the upset amongst those 3 for the podium.

I would not count out Mao. She is a fighter and she has her eyes set on Sochi.

[judgejudy27]

if Yu Na is even 75% of her 2010 form she is a mortal lock to win the gold, period. She does not even need to be back at her best, just about three quarters of it. I am almost certain there will be nobody in Sochi even skating at the level Asada and Rochette (especialy Asada) were around the time of Vancouver, and she absolutely killed them there. If she isnt then it becomes interesting. Yu Na at even 60% could have a chance depending how the other ladies are doing, just wouldnt be a lock like if she reaches 75% or hgiher.

I agree Elizaveta might have the best chance of the Russians. I wouldnt count Julia L. out yet but she has alot of work to do. Sotnikova has the most ability right now, but it is looking inreasingly doubtful she has the nerve and toughness of a real champion.