Which of these 3 skaters is most likely to win the Olympic Ladies competition?

[Maofan7]

At this juncture, I think the favourites for the Olympic Ladies competition have to be Kostner, Wagner, and Suzuki. I don't believe that Kim Yu-Na or Miki Ando will be coming back. I also think it unlikely that Mao Asada will ever get back to her best - if anything her technical problems are getting worse, not better (hope she proves me wrong). As for Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, Lipnitskaya, Gold, Osmond, and the various other newbies, they need time to get through their various growth issues and to get there PCS levels up. I think the 2014 Olympics will come too soon for them, and that their time will come in the next quad leading up to the 2018 Olympics. Of course, doing a Lipinski/Hughes is by no means out of the question - but, realistically, I think it unlikely. That leaves Kostner, Wagner, and Suzuki as the leading contenders. Czisny, Leonova, and maybe one or two others are also possibilities, but only as outsiders due to their lack of consistency.

Hence, hypothetically, if it does come down to a contest between Kostner, Wagner, and Suzuki for the Gold in Sochi, who would win?

[merrywidow]

Based only on the current GP results I'll guess Ashley Wagner.

[judgejudy27]

No way on planet Earth could I see Suzuki winning the Olympic Gold. Thus it comes down to Wagner or Kostner. Since Kostner is probably not going to add the triple lutz back, is add the age further improvement seems unlikely, and the best she could do is mantain her newfound consistency with already now limited technical content, I would say Wagner who is only getting better.

I also totally disagree Suzuki is a top 3 favorite for the Olympic Gold, and I have doubts whether Kostner will be by then either (and Wagner might not even be depending what transpires). The favorites for the Olympic Gold in no particular order would be Kim (even at 60% she is a stronger contender than Suzuki), the young Russians who all have another year plus to improve further, Wagner, Asada, and possibly Kostner.

I agree Ando is not a threat even if she comes back at this point (unlikely), but Asada is showing signs of resurgence this year. She is the only one so far to come close to beating Wagner btw. Of all the Japanese Asada is the only one I could see winning Oly Gold, and I expect Murakami to make the team, leaving the remaining spot to probably Suzuki, but maybe even Ando if she somehow returns.

[blue_idealist]

At this juncture, I think the favourites for the Olympic Ladies competition have to be Kostner, Wagner, and Suzuki. I don't believe that Kim Yu-Na or Miki Ando will be coming back. I also think it unlikely that Mao Asada will ever get back to her best - if anything her technical problems are getting worse, not better (hope she proves me wrong). As for Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, Lipnitskaya, Gold, Osmond, and the various other newbies, they need time to get through their various growth issues and to get there PCS levels up. I think the 2014 Olympics will come too soon for them, and that their time will come in the next quad leading up to the 2018 Olympics. Of course, doing a Lipinski/Hughes is by no means out of the question - but, realistically, I think it unlikely. That leaves Kostner, Wagner, and Suzuki as the leading contenders. Czisny, Leonova, and maybe one or two others are also possibilities, but only as outsiders due to their lack of consistency.

Hence, hypothetically, if it does come down to a contest between Kostner, Wagner, and Suzuki for the Gold in Sochi, who would win?

CZISNY? Did I read that right?

Anyway, with the way she's been skating lately, I voted for Ashley Wagner. She really lit it up at TEB.

[love_skate2011]

by the time Kim comes back she will be the leading contender
Gold: Kostner, Yuna and Wagner
outside shots: Mao ( if she learns to lessen her UR ) same for Murakami, Tuk, Gracie, Lipnitskaya, Korpi and Akiko

I am sorry but Csizny ? I dont even think she will be around by Sochi
Ando will be a non threat, she probbaly wont make the Olympics team

[Maofan7]

Kim Yu-Na would of course be one of favourites if she returns. However, I just don't think she will be coming back. I'll believe it when I see it.

[dawnie]

Kim Yu-Na would of course be one of favourites if she returns. However, I just don't think she will be coming back. I'll believe it when I see it.

Huh? She's coming back. I think she has proven by now that when she says she's going to compete, she competes. This isn't an Evan Lysacek situation at all.

[pinky166]

Suzuki's age makes me think she's likely past her prime. If Caro can keep up the motivation and put the 3lz back in, I'd give her the heavy edge over Wagner, but she is also getting "older" and after winning Worlds this past season, I question her motivation, while for Wagner, the hunger to make it to the Olympics and win/medal there and at Worlds give me more faith in her odds. I think she wants it more than Caro, but Caro is a slightly better skater, so it's a toss up between the two IMO.

[judgejudy27]

What would be everyones odds to win in Sochi right now. I might think something like this:

Kim 25%
Wagner 20%
Asada 15%
Kostner 15%
Lipnitskaia 7.5%
Sotnikova 7.5%
Elizaveta 5%
Everyone else combined 5%

[martyross]

Kim Yu-Na would of course be one of favourites if she returns. However, I just don't think she will be coming back. I'll believe it when I see it.

ok, but you're making a poll excluding her because you have the feeling she's not coming back. it is not an objective poll, imo

[dawnie]

What would be everyones odds to win in Sochi right now. I might think something like this:

Kim 25%
Wagner 20%
Asada 15%
Kostner 15%
Lipnitskaia 7.5%
Sotnikova 7.5%
Elizaveta 5%
Everyone else combined 5%

Curious as to why Sot is 7.5% and Tuk is 5%. Based on their GP events this season, I will say Tuk is the one on the upswing with a likely trip to the GPF for the 2nd year in a row.

[judgejudy27]

Curious as to why Sot is 7.5% and Tuk is 5%. Based on their GP events this season, I will say Tuk is the one on the upswing with a likely trip to the GPF for the 2nd year in a row.

True, I think Adelina though if she is on is much better than Julia or Elizaveta at this point. The question is will she be able to get it back together or not.

[judgejudy27]

ok, but you're making a poll excluding her because you have the feeling she's not coming back. it is not an objective poll, imo

Well the poll was entitled "of these three". It does feel silly though since almost none of us think Suzuki is more a contender than many others.

[Cherub721]

The fact that this is the list of ladies with the best chances to win OGM is so depressing, lmao.

I am starting to think Kostner has a chance even with no lutz. It's like Buttle in 2008 with no quad. It was seen as a fluke, and when he retired people were like "that's smart, he probably can't win the Olympics with that content." But then Lysacek won without it and without even having Buttle's transitions, artistry, and skating skills. And Plushenko came back being all "bitch please, I can beat them all" and Lysacek still didn't do a quad and Plush was so sure of himself that he didn't try his second quad, and Lysacek beat him because the judges totally didn't care anymore.

So we have Buttle = Kostner (artistic headcase who considered retiring after winning Worlds), Plush = Kim (reigning OGM who dips their toes into the water when it looks like they can repeat), and Lysacek = As yet undetermined female skater who lacks technical difficulty but is good at ticking off PCS boxes but not considered amazingly artistic... Korpi? Wagner? [Ok, they have the lutz, but Wagner has no 3-3 and Korpi is not consistent at all] Maybe Czisny should take out the lutz, attempt only one flip, and score her points on spins and PCS with pretty/empty programs. Seriously.

[judgejudy27]

I think Ashley winning the OGM if it happens would be the best thing to happen for U.S skating in over a decade. As for quality she would easily be a better skater than many past Olympic winners- Poetzsch, Dijkstra, Altwegg, Julin, perhaps Hughes, perhaps Baiul. I wont say Schuba since her amazing GOATness at compulsory figures should be appreciated.

[cbd1235]

What would be everyones odds to win in Sochi right now. I might think something like this:

Kim 25%
Wagner 20%
Asada 15%
Kostner 15%
Lipnitskaia 7.5%
Sotnikova 7.5%
Elizaveta 5%
Everyone else combined 5%

Hmmm... I'd go:

Kim 25%
Wagner 18.5%
Asada 18.5%
Kostner 15%
Lipnitskaia 0.0%
Sotnikova 5%
Elizaveta 11.5%
Everyone else combined 7.5%

[judgejudy27]

Hmmm... I'd go:

Kim 25%
Wagner 18.5%
Asada 18.5%
Kostner 15%
Lipnitskaia 0.0%
Sotnikova 5%
Elizaveta 11.5%
Everyone else combined 7.5%

Hmm interesting. 0 for Lipnitskaia seems a bit harsh but then again the Olympics will be her major senior event debut, unless one counts the GP final this year. She definitely needs alot of improvement but her consistency is a huge asset. She could pull a Sarah hughes, but then again she seems to already be losing her consistency in the grand prix this season. Errors kept her from finishing one spot higher in both her grand prix assignments.

[love_skate2011]

hmmm.... I don't think Julia has a chance for Gold but a podium is still possible
she had mistakes in GP but it wasn't huge mistakes ( injured ? ), aka. bombing that happened last season wh Sotnikova

[Maofan7]

Well the poll was entitled "of these three". It does feel silly though since almost none of us think Suzuki is more a contender than many others.

Really? I think its you that's being short sighted. Last season, Suzuki was 2nd in the Grand Prix Final, 3rd at Worlds, and winner of the World Team Trophy. In my hypothetical (in which Kim and Miki do not come back), she is the one to take advantage if Wagner and Kostner make mistakes - far more so than Asada (who has finished only 6th at the last 2 world championships). My favourite skater is Mao, but it has to be recognised that she is going backwards, not forwards, technically. She is most certainly not "resurgent" this season as you suggest. She was extremely fortunately to win at the Cup of China with what was a very technically weak FS - far weaker than Akiko's at Skate Canada. Who scored higher - Mao or Akiko? (Answer: Akiko 120.04, Mao 118.87). Last season, Kostner practically swept the board. However, she made her only real mistake at the World Team Trophy. Who was there to take advantage? - Yes, Akiko Suzuki, with a score of 187.79 - a score which was just 2.15 less than Kostner's winning score at the 2012 World Championships (189.94). Who would have been the winner at last years Grand Prix Final had Kostner made a similar mistake in that? - yes, Akiko Suzuki. To suggest that Suzuki has little chance is absurd. In my view, Kostner and Wagner are the favourites, but if they both make mistakes, then just as what happened at last years World Team Trophy, Akiko will probably be the one who is best placed to take advantage (not Mao). As she showed last season, Suzuki is consistent and she scores consistently high.

What would be everyones odds to win in Sochi right now. I might think something like this:

Kim 25%
Wagner 20%
Asada 15%
Kostner 15%
Lipnitskaia 7.5%
Sotnikova 7.5%
Elizaveta 5%
Everyone else combined 5%

As for your own assessment, if Kim comes back then I agree that she will be the favourite. However, I don't think she will ultimately come back. I would make Wagner and Kostner co-favourites. For the reasons given above, placing Mao that high with her technical frailties is absurd - Akiko has a much better chance than her. I would absolutely love to be proved wrong here, but Mao is on a downward spiral and her technical abilities are getting worse, not better. As for giving Sotnikova an equal/better chance than Tuk and Lipnitskaya - that is something I can't agree with. Indeed, its my own considered opinion that Sotnikova will not even qualify for the Russian team for the Olympics - Tuk, Lipnitskaya, and Leonova will most likely get in ahead of her. Again, I would love to be proved wrong as Sotnikova has plenty of talent, but she simply does not have the competitive temperament to go with it. Hope a sporting psychologist can change all that, however.

In terms of their chances in percentage terms, I would say Tuk, Lipnitskaya, and Gold had an equal chance. Any one of them could do a Sarah Hughes if there were to be a mass implosion by Kostner, Wagner, Suzuki, etc

[judgejudy27]

Lets just say pretty much all of us think you drastically overrate Akiko's chances. Notice the fact that of 35 votes only 1 voted for her in this thread so far, lol! Even if you are right on her having a better chance than "some" of Asada, Sotnikova, Elizvata, Lipnitskaia, and Kim not returning at all, it is highly unlikely all of that will be true, and Akiko is a top 3 favorite for the Olympic Gold. Sorry no way do I see that happening. I guess only time will tell but I expect you will be proven drastically wrong.

Yes Akiko is doing well now but she has already peaked, this is as good as she will ever get, and considering her age she will do well to even not start going down now. Meanwhile alot of her competitors are likely to improve, atleast some of them will for sure, something that as noted is very unlikely for her at this stage. Plus she is only Japanese #1 if nobody else is doing well, if any of Asada returning to half decent form, Murakami continuing her improvements of late, or Ando returning in half decent shape (the last being the least likely of all I know) the Japanese fed. will promote any of those over her in a heartbeat. If Ando somehow comes back I wouldnt be surprised if Suzuki even misses the Olympic team. Asada doesnt even have to get back to her very best, atleast not to beat Suzuki, her performances in LOSING to Wagner the last 2 times they met would beat any competition Suzuki has done thus far. The Japanese federation loves Asada and Ando far more than they care for Suzuki, she will only get support as their #1 if none of the other Japenese girls are doing well and they have no choice.

In any case even though some of:

1. Asada not returning to form good enough to even contend for a medal or beat somone like Suzuki.
2. The Russian wonderbabies ALL remaining stagnant and not improving at all from where they are now.
3. Kim not returning at all.

might happen, for all those things to happen, and to think the situation will remain exactly like now is hugely unlikely. This is the Olympics, you will not see no former greats return to something approaching their best, and no great up and coming talents emerge to a level higher than they currently are in a years time.