2012 TEB Ladies SP - Flipnitskaya vs Toe-ktamysheva? What Wagner would say?

[rfisher]

Wagner just goes to show that predicting years in advance is a fool's game. I never would have thought she'd be this qualtiy of skater 5-6 years ago. I don't think she has the same talent that Mirai or even Alissa have, but she's got more determination to prove herself than all of the other US lades combined. She's matured (there really is a difference in a 20 yo and a 14-16 yo) and has emerged as one of the US's best medal hopes in many years.

[Wyliefan]

So thrilled to hear about Ashley doing so well!

[RFOS]

One judge thought Julia had better skating skill than Ashley; and another thought she had better performance/execution than Ashley. Really?!

If you're just looking down the columns, you can't do that, because the judges are in random order (and the order isn't the same for each skater).

[triple_toe]

If Ashley had gotten a level higher on her combo OR her flying spin, she'd be in first.

[caseyedwards]

A 3/3 for Ashley would not have been necessary against Julia but like with Mao or kostner probably. I don't know what would be easie for Ashley 3/3 or getting all level 4 spins.

[Jaana]

Wagner just goes to show that predicting years in advance is a fool's game. I never would have thought she'd be this qualtiy of skater 5-6 years ago. I don't think she has the same talent that Mirai or even Alissa have, but she's got more determination to prove herself than all of the other US lades combined. She's matured (there really is a difference in a 20 yo and a 14-16 yo) and has emerged as one of the US's best medal hopes in many years.

Yes, she is the Evan of ladies skating.... The same determination, I would say.

[mag]

If Ashley had gotten a level higher on her combo OR her flying spin, she'd be in first.

I believe the difference on the combo spin (including GOE) was 1.22. Those are the kind of details that can be important. 1.22 could be the difference between 3rd and 5th at Worlds.

[Triple Butz]

Yes, she is the Evan of ladies skating.... The same determination, I would say.

except Ashley has rhythm...

[triple_toe]

I believe the difference on the combo spin (including GOE) was 1.22. Those are the kind of details that can be important. 1.22 could be the difference between 3rd and 5th at Worlds.

Yes I agree. But here Ashley was only 0.46 behind. The difference between a level 4 and a level 3 base value is 0.5.

[jenny12]

Hope Ashley is eventually able to add a 3/3 but I just love her skating. What a great performer on the ice she has become!

[worldsnice12]

So impressed with Wagner. Glad to see she is far above the others in PCS. That choreography is wonderful and she delivers.

She is such a complete skater now.I just love her confident look and clean skating.
I don't know but there is something a bit "Kwanesque" over her now,not only the music for obvious reason,more how she reaches out to the audience and taking her time on each element..

[Rob]

Yes, she is the Evan of ladies skating.... The same determination, I would say.

Yes, and maturity is bringing confidence too. She always had attack, but maybe not confidence. I really like her choreography this year too.

[topaz]

I've never been a Wagner fan, but she has transformed herself the last two years and she wants some medals. Determination can take you a long way. Good for her.

Well I've always been an Ashley Fan! I'm borderline Uber at this moment. I'm so proud to see this spunky girl skating up to her potential.

I actually think the scoring is right. Ashley is not going to beat Julia in the spins levels and the 3-3 combo did it for Julia. But this is a good, very good score for Ashley with the program components she is completing.

[topaz]

I think Julia did marvelously too. I really like this girl!

[Maofan7]

LADIES SHORT PROGRAM - VIDEOS & RESULT

1. Julia LIPNITSKAYA (RUS) - 63.55
2. Ashley WAGNER (USA) - 63.09 Short Program (British Eurosport Commentary)
3. Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA (RUS) - 58.26
4. Mae Berenice MEITE (FRA) - 54.83
5. Polina KOROBEYNIKOVA (RUS) - 54.50
6. Elena GLEBOVA (EST) - 52.61
7. Christina GAO (USA) - 52.55
8. Lena MARROCCO (FRA) - 48.86
9. Joshi HELGESSON (SWE) - 45.19
10. Jenna MCCORKELL (GBR) - 43.15

[Cherub721]

I bet Julia is glad she didn't withdraw with her injury. Good job!

[pinky166]

That's if her body changes: she could grow vertically, but still have the physique of an ice dancer or ballerina.

Growing taller could still mess up her jumps though, even if she stays thin, look at Shelepen. Part of the reason I think Tuk can still jump is that even though she put on weight, she is still very short with a very small frame, so her height and body shape/frame have stayed about the same size. My little sister is a great dancer and she didn't have much issues losing her skills with puberty, because her big growth spurt was about 2 inches and maybe 15 pounds. Fully grown she's only 4'10" and 85 lbs. Tuk is probably about the same size as my sister looking at photos. Her maturation seems shocking just because of how petite she is in terms of height and frame. The weight gain from last season is probably not that much.

Bottom line is Julia's jumps are tiny and any kind of growth, be it height or weight or body shape or a combination, could hurt her jumps a lot. But if she stays short (I don't think she's actually 5'2" as listed because she was way shorter than Mao and Mirai in pictures from CoC) and puts on weight but does not change a lot otherwise, that could potentially cause less issues than if she shoots up several inches yet remains thin. A lot of tall thin skaters struggle with jumps too...

Also, puberty monster doesn't seem to be very kind to the Russian girls in general compared to the Asian girls.

[kwanette]

She is such a complete skater now.I just love her confident look and clean skating.
I don't know but there is something a bit "Kwanesque" over her now,not only the music for obvious reason,more how she reaches out to the audience and taking her time on each element..

She is prepared, confident, and tenacious and the best in the USA now and among the best in the world.

That said, I see nothing Kwan-esque about her.

[pinky166]

Yes, and maturity is bringing confidence too. She always had attack, but maybe not confidence. I really like her choreography this year too.

ITA and she has way more personality than Lysacek ever did. I've always liked Ashley but before she maybe seemed a little, idk, sloppy, unfinished, unfocused, but now that she's reigned it in, wow, you go girl. She's always on the attack, which I love. I just hope she can keep this up!! I remember people thinking Czisny had transformed after her great 2010-2011 season, although, Czisny had always been much more of a headcase than Wagner ever was, was less consistent even in her best season that Wagner has been recently, and by this time last year (partway through the season after her "breakout" season) she was clearly not the same Alissa and was showing chinks in the armor. So I'm hopeful for Ashley and hope she can keep this momentum going through Sochi.

[Triple Butz]

Can't wait for the video of Polina K's SP to be posted...need to watch again, but I can't believe they called her loop as > because it looked huge and secure on the first viewing.