Which of these first time Olympians has the best chance of winning the OGM in 2014?

[Vash01]

Quite often the OGM is won by a young skater who does not face as much pressure as a favorite does. Yu na Kim was obviously an exception in 2010- young and a heavy favorite.

I am looking at ladies who are likely to be skating in their first Olympics in 2014 (some of those listed here may not make their Olympic team; I admit that this poll is a bit early).

Note that I am leaving out Kim, Asada, Kostner and Ando.

Out of the young ladies in their first Olympics who is most likely to win the OGM in Sochi?

ETA: It seems I have a typo in the heading. Can the Admin please fix it (remove the "14?" at the end? Thanks.

[love_skate2011]

Julia Lipnitskaya - she has the momentum

Ashley Wagner - if she keeps her consistency

Liza Tuktamysheva - if she gets back into her top form

Gracie Gold - if she skates her rock solid programs

[skateboy]

Akiko Suzuki skated in Vancouver, yes?

Of the others, I'd go with Tuk or Gracie.

[l'etoile]

Akiko competed at Vancouver.

[Vash01]

Akiko Suzuki skated in Vancouver, yes?

Of the others, I'd go with Tuk or Gracie.

I forgot about 2010. Sorry. Is there a way to drop her from the list?

[Marco]

Sot or Tuk. Lip is still way too green. With just 15 months til Sochi, I don't think she will be ready by then.

I think Wagner could MEDAL, but OGM is probably out of reach.

At the back of my mind, I am still hoping either Kostner or Asada wins and with a out of this world performance too.

[SamuraiK]

Um we are not even sure all those ladies would be 2014 olympians (specailly for the americans).

[Vash01]

Um we are not even sure all those ladies would be 2014 olympians (specailly for the americans).

I wrote in my post that it is a bit early, but I like making early predictions.

ETA: When I was creating the poll headline, I had the words 'likely Olympians' in it, but it was too long; the system won't allow more than a certain number of characters, so I dropped 'likely'.

[essence_of_soy]

It's interesting that the young Russians who made such a splash last year, aren't winning competitions outright this season as anticipated. There seems to be a shift towards skaters with a more mature artistry that the Russians can't yet match.

Maybe things will be different in 2014, but the road ahead is also filled with skaters like Asada, Wagner, Osmond, Korpi, Kim, Ando, Suguri, Gold, Zawadski and Kostner.

[Vash01]

It's interesting that the young Russians who made such a splash last year, aren't winning competitions outright this season as anticipated. There seems to be a shift towards skaters with a more mature artistry that the Russians can't yet match.

Maybe things will be different in 2014, but the road ahead is also filled with skaters like Asada, Wagner, Osmond, Korpi, Kim, Ando, Suguri, Gold, Zawadski and Kostner.

I wouldn't put Gold and Osmond in the same bracket as the mature ladies you mentioned. They belong in the first (younger) group. I am not sure that I would place even Zawadski in the mature group. She seems to be somewhere in between.

Suguri is finished, I believe. I am afraid Ando may not make it to the 2014 Olympics either.

[judgejudy27]

Of those the only one I could see possibly winning is Wagner. Otherwise I expect the winner will come out of Kim, Asada, Kostner, and Rochette (if she returns). I dont see any of the overhyped young Russians winning. Suzuki is not a first time Olympian btw, although she definitely wont win Sochi gold anyway. Depending what Ando does it is quite possible Japan wont even have a first time Olympian on the team (although I think Murakami looks good enough to hold off an unmotivated Ando) let alone any of their newcomers producing a gold medal. Osmond I would be thrilled if she somehow won a medal, the gold would be a fantasy probably this soon. Gold will do well to make the U.S team, I dont see a gold medal for her this soon either.

Why on earth is anyone even talking about Suguri, LOL! Even at her peak from 2002-2006 she was never a contender for an Olympic Gold medal, arguably never a real contender for an Olympic medal despite her 3 world medals (2 at watered down Worlds missing many of the Olympians, and 1 at her 2003-2004 peak). Today she isnt even a regional level skater in Japan.

[PeterG]

Um we are not even sure all those ladies would be 2014 olympians (specailly for the americans).

Why are you so anti-poll?

[judgejudy27]

I dont understand all the votes for Julia Lipnitskaya. She has tiny jumps and weak presentation. She isnt going to win the Olympics on consistency and spins alone. She couldnt even beat a subpar Asada with major errors in her first outing this season. If Sotnikova can get her head together she has a better shot at it. Even Tuktamysheva might if she keeps improving her presentation. Julia L. will be a star of the next quadrennial if she can survive puberty and has the right coaching to help her improve, but she has a long way to go and she isnt going to make her major senior event debut at the Olympics and win with her current skill set, no way.

[Jammers]

To bad the new girls only started being eligible for Worlds a season before the Olympics. That's one reason why some of the veteran skaters are still on top. The new blood has gotten a late start in this Olympic cycle unlike most Olympic cycles. In a couple years they most likely would start dominating and leaving the older skaters behind.

[Cherub721]

I dont understand all the votes for Julia Lipnitskaya. She has tiny jumps and weak presentation. She isnt going to win the Olympics on consistency and spins alone. She couldnt even beat a subpar Asada with major errors in her first outing this season.

Julia had major errors at CoC too. What's more concerning is that she lost the SP to Korpi at Finlandia and Korpi is not a top tier skater IMO. I wouldn't rule Julia and her consistency out, though. She hasn't been getting the PCS because she's very new and green. If she continues landing her jumps and winning stuff they'll go up. And anyway it's not like Lipinski's "artistry" was so grand in 98, and that was against the supposed artistic genius Kwan. The judges at the Olympics often fall for a young face who skates with abandon. Not saying she'll win, but I would rank her chances above others on the list.

[Marco]

Julia had major errors at CoC too. What's more concerning is that she lost the SP to Korpi at Finlandia and Korpi is not a top tier skater IMO. I wouldn't rule Julia and her consistency out, though. She hasn't been getting the PCS because she's very new and green. If she continues landing her jumps and winning stuff they'll go up. And anyway it's not like Lipinski's "artistry" was so grand in 98, and that was against the supposed artistic genius Kwan. The judges at the Olympics often fall for a young face who skates with abandon. Not saying she'll win, but I would rank her chances above others on the list.

Lip had one UR and a stumble. Asada had one downgrade, 2 URs and a pop. If she had been clean, she would still only barely have enough points to match Asada as was. It was NOT the mistakes that lost her the title. It was PCS and GOEs.

Korpi is definitely a top tier skater. She is a European medalist, has won a couple of GPs and consistently been receiving high GOEs and PCS in the mid 7s due to the quality of her skating. She hadn't had more success only because of the jumps / consistency, not because she wasn't a good enough skater.

In fact, her losing the short to Korpi at Finlandia and losing Cup of China to Asada shows the judges' impression of her current skating compared to other veterans. While it is true that she is new on the senior circuit and as a result tends to receive lower PCS, in my opinion the bigger reason for her lower PCS is simply because she doesn't have the power and maturity necessary to compete internationally. Kim and Asada were getting stronger PCS in 2007, and that's 3 seasons before the Olympics.

If she keeps medalling / winning, her PCS will likely go up, but I don't see her meriting anything above 7.5 unless she further improves her skating (which I am sure she will....but when?). It also hurts her that she won't get to skate at Worlds at all before Sochi. I foresee her having similar results to what Nagasu did in 2010 (held down for more established skaters despite being clean). She may be able to creep into the bronze medal position if Sochi turned out to be a poorly skated event.

Lipinski didn't have the artistry but had the presentation. She had the speed and ice coverage to contend with Kwan's artistry. Lip as at now does not have any or many PCS advantages over other contenders. Keep in mind the OGM at Sochi will likely need to score an average of 8.5s or above.

[ambern024]

i really don't think any of those would or will.

[victoriaheidi]

If I'm going to jump onto the Lipnitskaia train, she has to can it with the peeing dog imitation. Or at least limit it.

[love_skate2011]

TEB showed Ashley is in a league of her own, if she keeps this up she will be the top seeded skater for the Olympics
Julia and Liza have potential as well to do well in Sochi aswell

[PeterG]

i really don't think any of those would or will.

You need to re-read the title of the thread.