View Poll Results: Which U.S lady will join Wagner on World team
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Unfortunately GGold hasn't proven herself to be any different :/...yet. The only US lady who fits the consistent and handles pressure well bill is Ashley.
Originally Posted by Jammers
Can we send two Ashley Wagners to worlds? I'd put my money on that heheh
I mean I think she is most likely to be propped up. I agree she is more of a 2018 hope than a 2014 hope. But between Gao's competitive history (peaking too early), Zhang's scores, Nagasu's downgrades etc, there really aren't many choices.
Originally Posted by kwanatic
Hopefully one of these girls can step up BEFORE Nationals to make things easier.
Actually, if all the other girls are not reliable, perhaps just sending Wagner alone won't be a bad idea. She very likely will place top ten, thus securing 2 girls for Sochi. But in the event that she places top 2, she can secure 3 spots. It's a tough order I know, but certainly not impossible. It's probably easier to have Wagner place top two than have the second lady place top 8.
Originally Posted by cbd1235
Ashley is great, but sending her alone is a really bad idea to me. If she were to get sick while she's there and has to withdraw, we would have zero ladies to fall back on, and would actually miss getting an Olympic spot at all. Valentina Marchei finished 8th at Worlds with a 150.10, and Ksenia Makarova 9th with a 149.48. Ten US ladies have already scored higher than Valentina's score internationally this year- 185+ =Wagner, 170+ = Gao, Zawadzki, Gold, 160+ = Nagasu, Wang, 150- = Miller, Cesario, Keiser, and Hicks.
That said, the Worlds field gets stronger this year when you put Tuktamysheva and Sotnikova in there instead of a Makarova and Korobeinikova. Osmond instead of Lacoste, Yuna Kim, Zijun Li, add Korpi back in...
So far the SB list looks like this -
1 188.37 Ashley WAGNER USA ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2012 21.10.2012
2 182.86 Elena RADIONOVA RUS ISU JGP Austria 2012 15.09.2012
3 181.76 Mao ASADA JPN ISU GP Cup of China 2012 03.11.2012
4 177.92 Julia LIPNITSKAIA RUS ISU GP Cup of China 2012 03.11.2012
5 176.45 Kaetlyn OSMOND CAN ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012
6 175.16 Akiko SUZUKI JPN ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012
7 174.25 Christina GAO USA ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2012 21.10.2012
8 169.86 Kiira KORPI FIN ISU GP Cup of China 2012 03.11.2012
9 168.96 Adelina SOTNIKOVA RUS ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2012 21.10.2012
10 168.04 Kanako MURAKAMI JPN ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012
11 168.00 Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA RUS ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012
12 163.46 Mirai NAGASU USA ISU GP Cup of China 2012 03.11.2012
13 162.65 Angela WANG USA ISU JGP Croatia Cup 2012 06.10.2012
14 161.65 Satoko MIYAHARA JPN ISU JGP Lake Placid 2012 01.09.2012
15 160.52 Anna POGORILAYA RUS ISU JGP Pokal d. Blauen Schwerter 2012 12.10.2012
15 160.52 Elene GEDEVANISHVILI GEO ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012
16 160.06 Zijun LI CHN ISU GP Cup of China 2012 03.11.2012
17 158.79 Valentina MARCHEI ITA ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2012 21.10.2012
- Alissa, Agnes, and Yuna Kim have yet to compete for an ISU SB score this season...
- Rep Power
^ Wow. Thanks for the list, Haribobo. It's a good snapshot of where we are. But, don't forget Kostner, who also hasn't skated yet. Will she debut internationally at Euros, then? and I forgot, is Ando out for the season?
Ashley is in a very good position right now. I doubt Alissa or Agnes will top her score but Yu Na might.
Back to Caroline: I reiterate that she's a scrapper, so I think she does have a chance at the #2 spot. But if any of Gao, Nagasu, Zawadzki or Czisny perform well, she'll be relegated behind them. Then again, ice is slippery and all of those ladies are capable of being craptacular. What are the chances, though, of all of them failing?
The fact is we don't have a strong number 2 Lady here in the US right now so even if Ashley gets on the podium the other girl might not even make the top ten. To think the US almost always used to have two strong skaters at Worlds almost every year.
Czisny has no chance whatsoever
I think we can rule out zhang after her GP results
Gao has had good results in the season but to me she still has the components of a junior
Zawadski could easily make it, but she would have to skate 2 clean programs and we are still yet to see that
Gold has to stop popping the easier jumps like her 3loop. She needs the technical points because her components are not so great
Nagasu will have the edge on components, but has to land clean jumps
Really could be any of them, most likely will be Nagasu with Gold trailing close behind.
Hmmm, Gold was winning this particular poll for awhile. Now, it's Nagasu by a point. In the same poll in a different thread, Nagasu is also winning, maybe because of her recent performance at NHK, while Gold's recent success at her last GP has been forgotten? Gao who started out ahead in this poll, after her silver at Skate America, is fast becoming an afterthought, particularly in the other/ same poll.
Gao is doing better in this poll than the other one. Both polls have Gold and Nagasu tied.
Zhang will crush everyone in her path.
Too risky. Injuries happen.
Originally Posted by Marco
I believe that either Mirai or Gold are safe bets to finish top 10. Gao could also finish in top 10, but on the bubble. Assuming that Ashley finishes #1 or #2, the USA has a good chance of securing 3 spots at the 2014 Olympics.
The skater should not send to world this year is Czisny. Nothing personal, but she is the least consistent of all, and when she does poorly, it's really really bad.
Agnes needs to develop more consistency before making the 2013 worlds team. She could make the 2014 or 2015 worlds team, though (regardless of whether she makes the Olympic team or not). I still have hopes for her.
It will be interesting to see what they do if everyone skates their best at Nationals. I am actually not so sure Nagasu can beat Gold if both are at their best. Even Nagasu's best will be well beaten by Gold's best when it comes to TES, and Mirai's presentation is not what it used to be and she doesnt get very high PCS either anymore, although probably still higher than Gold. Zawadzki at her best would make it even more interesting. If Zawadzki skates her best in the SP she will probably kill the other two in that phase, and it is hard to guage her LP scoring potential since she has never skated a really good one, but she might still be able to hold on. A large part comes what the USFSA wants though, I am sure they will have already hinted at who they would prefer to get that 2nd spot all things equal, and that will play a large part in the marks pending performances.
I am rooting for Gao to get the 2nd spot but like every year she will probably be at the mercy of the others and how many mistakes they make. She just doesnt have the scoring potential of the others, even though she has been consistent this year.
I dont think Zhang and Czisny are any factors this year.
I guess the last question is if Wagner has several mistakes and Nagasu or Gold or even Zawadzki skate perfectly what do the judges do. I suspect given her consistently great international results over the last year, and the complete lack of international reliability of all the others, they would still protect Wagner (with good reason) but would still be interesting.
Just this year? I think it's safe to say they won't be a factor at all when it comes to World and Olympic teams.
Originally Posted by judgejudy27
I think if the U.S regains 3 spots and Czisny skates well at Nationals this year and skates well next fall, and skates well at Nationals next year, she could get a spot on the team.
Originally Posted by dawnie
Zhang I dont think has much or any chance at Sochi, but she could be around until 2018 and continue her improvement of last year if she gets back on track.
Even with 3 spots, I think the only way Czisny can make the Olympic team is to have the skate of her life in both SP and LP at Nationals next year. Stranger things have happened, sure. But I don't see the point of giving her a spot unless the USFSA were giving her a goodbye gift and wanted to send her out in style.
Originally Posted by judgejudy27
I also don't see Zhang continuing past 2014.
I dont see why the USFSA would be that adverse to having Czisny on the 2014 Olympic team if they had 3 spots and if she deserved it via her performance(s) at Nationals. They wouldnt put her on the team over Wagner, and perhaps a 2nd skater who shines from now or then (maybe Gold or Nagasu if they help the U.S regain 3 spots) but I predict the 3rd spot for Sochi to be wide open, and if the U.S fails to regain 3 spots the USFSA will not be happy and the 2nd spot will also probably be wide open too. They dont need to worry about Czisny not qualifying spots for the Olympics, and if they have 3 spots even her qualifying spots for the 2015 Worlds wont be dependent on her if she is the U.S's #3 skater and they have 2 others they can really on who are fairly consistent, and they could even send her to Sochi and leave her off the World team like they did Wylie if they wish. She is still a skater who can produce a good international result if she somehow has a good day. I agree no way Czisny is seeing Worlds this year, even if she does a program with 3 different quadruple jumps at Nationals. They would give her 5s in PCS if neccessary (I know shocking to say that given the past USFSA and U.S judges lovefest with Czisny) to keep her off the World team knowing this is a pre Olympic year with Olympic spots on the line, but next year could be a window for her if she does everything right from now until then.
Originally Posted by dawnie
As for Zhang you could be right, but she is young enough to go for 2018 if she wants to, but with Gold, Zawadzki, Gao, all likely going to 2018, and all the other up and comers who are just started to be noticed now, she probably wouldnt be any factor by then anyway.
Do you really think most of these skaters can last til 2018?! 6 more years? Skating/injuries can take a toll on the body, plus the ridiculous expenses associated with training another 6 years?
Originally Posted by judgejudy27
Alissa Czisny has been skating for forever and ever, like extending her career to try for 3 Olympic cycles (presumably), and in the end she is unlikely to make it to the Olympics for any of them. Anyways, IIRC Alissa is not from a wealthy family, but somehow she has managed to make things work and continue training all these years so there's so saying Caroline couldn't do the same. I think Caroline talked about wanting to go to college full time and become a vet though, but maybe she could put that off, or try and do both, hey, it's working for Christina.
Originally Posted by demetriosj