Hopefully one of these girls can step up BEFORE Nationals to make things easier.
Ashley is great, but sending her alone is a really bad idea to me. If she were to get sick while she's there and has to withdraw, we would have zero ladies to fall back on, and would actually miss getting an Olympic spot at all. Valentina Marchei finished 8th at Worlds with a 150.10, and Ksenia Makarova 9th with a 149.48. Ten US ladies have already scored higher than Valentina's score internationally this year- 185+ =Wagner, 170+ = Gao, Zawadzki, Gold, 160+ = Nagasu, Wang, 150- = Miller, Cesario, Keiser, and Hicks.
That said, the Worlds field gets stronger this year when you put Tuktamysheva and Sotnikova in there instead of a Makarova and Korobeinikova. Osmond instead of Lacoste, Yuna Kim, Zijun Li, add Korpi back in...
So far the SB list looks like this -
1 188.37 Ashley WAGNER USA ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2012 21.10.2012
2 182.86 Elena RADIONOVA RUS ISU JGP Austria 2012 15.09.2012
3 181.76 Mao ASADA JPN ISU GP Cup of China 2012 03.11.2012
4 177.92 Julia LIPNITSKAIA RUS ISU GP Cup of China 2012 03.11.2012
5 176.45 Kaetlyn OSMOND CAN ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012
6 175.16 Akiko SUZUKI JPN ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012
7 174.25 Christina GAO USA ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2012 21.10.2012
8 169.86 Kiira KORPI FIN ISU GP Cup of China 2012 03.11.2012
9 168.96 Adelina SOTNIKOVA RUS ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2012 21.10.2012
10 168.04 Kanako MURAKAMI JPN ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012
11 168.00 Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA RUS ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012
12 163.46 Mirai NAGASU USA ISU GP Cup of China 2012 03.11.2012
13 162.65 Angela WANG USA ISU JGP Croatia Cup 2012 06.10.2012
14 161.65 Satoko MIYAHARA JPN ISU JGP Lake Placid 2012 01.09.2012
15 160.52 Anna POGORILAYA RUS ISU JGP Pokal d. Blauen Schwerter 2012 12.10.2012
15 160.52 Elene GEDEVANISHVILI GEO ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012
16 160.06 Zijun LI CHN ISU GP Cup of China 2012 03.11.2012
17 158.79 Valentina MARCHEI ITA ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2012 21.10.2012
- Alissa, Agnes, and Yuna Kim have yet to compete for an ISU SB score this season...
^ Wow. Thanks for the list, Haribobo. It's a good snapshot of where we are. But, don't forget Kostner, who also hasn't skated yet. Will she debut internationally at Euros, then? and I forgot, is Ando out for the season?
Ashley is in a very good position right now. I doubt Alissa or Agnes will top her score but Yu Na might.
Back to Caroline: I reiterate that she's a scrapper, so I think she does have a chance at the #2 spot. But if any of Gao, Nagasu, Zawadzki or Czisny perform well, she'll be relegated behind them. Then again, ice is slippery and all of those ladies are capable of being craptacular. What are the chances, though, of all of them failing?
The fact is we don't have a strong number 2 Lady here in the US right now so even if Ashley gets on the podium the other girl might not even make the top ten. To think the US almost always used to have two strong skaters at Worlds almost every year.
Czisny has no chance whatsoever
I think we can rule out zhang after her GP results
Gao has had good results in the season but to me she still has the components of a junior
Zawadski could easily make it, but she would have to skate 2 clean programs and we are still yet to see that
Gold has to stop popping the easier jumps like her 3loop. She needs the technical points because her components are not so great
Nagasu will have the edge on components, but has to land clean jumps
Really could be any of them, most likely will be Nagasu with Gold trailing close behind.
Hmmm, Gold was winning this particular poll for awhile. Now, it's Nagasu by a point. In the same poll in a different thread, Nagasu is also winning, maybe because of her recent performance at NHK, while Gold's recent success at her last GP has been forgotten? Gao who started out ahead in this poll, after her silver at Skate America, is fast becoming an afterthought, particularly in the other/ same poll.
Gao is doing better in this poll than the other one. Both polls have Gold and Nagasu tied.
Zhang will crush everyone in her path.
I believe that either Mirai or Gold are safe bets to finish top 10. Gao could also finish in top 10, but on the bubble. Assuming that Ashley finishes #1 or #2, the USA has a good chance of securing 3 spots at the 2014 Olympics.
The skater should not send to world this year is Czisny. Nothing personal, but she is the least consistent of all, and when she does poorly, it's really really bad.
Agnes needs to develop more consistency before making the 2013 worlds team. She could make the 2014 or 2015 worlds team, though (regardless of whether she makes the Olympic team or not). I still have hopes for her.
It will be interesting to see what they do if everyone skates their best at Nationals. I am actually not so sure Nagasu can beat Gold if both are at their best. Even Nagasu's best will be well beaten by Gold's best when it comes to TES, and Mirai's presentation is not what it used to be and she doesnt get very high PCS either anymore, although probably still higher than Gold. Zawadzki at her best would make it even more interesting. If Zawadzki skates her best in the SP she will probably kill the other two in that phase, and it is hard to guage her LP scoring potential since she has never skated a really good one, but she might still be able to hold on. A large part comes what the USFSA wants though, I am sure they will have already hinted at who they would prefer to get that 2nd spot all things equal, and that will play a large part in the marks pending performances.
I am rooting for Gao to get the 2nd spot but like every year she will probably be at the mercy of the others and how many mistakes they make. She just doesnt have the scoring potential of the others, even though she has been consistent this year.
I dont think Zhang and Czisny are any factors this year.
I guess the last question is if Wagner has several mistakes and Nagasu or Gold or even Zawadzki skate perfectly what do the judges do. I suspect given her consistently great international results over the last year, and the complete lack of international reliability of all the others, they would still protect Wagner (with good reason) but would still be interesting.
Zhang I dont think has much or any chance at Sochi, but she could be around until 2018 and continue her improvement of last year if she gets back on track.
I also don't see Zhang continuing past 2014.
Miraicle "Not an Alien" Nagasu.
... for completely selfish reason, I want to check out her Exhibition Gala again which I really like, certainly more than her 2 competitive programs.
She has proven she can regain judge's favour by being more consistent and going for the 3:3. She also seems to have momentum on her side coming off the bronze at NHK.
My second choice is Gold who could do with more international exposure (to build up PCS) and experience.
However given ice is slippery, I don't think Ashley is as a sure thing as everyone thinks. For example, I'd love Czsiny unFLATTen her last season treatment from USFSA and regain her placement just to watching everyone else going crazy, and break even more rulebooks out of the window.
As for Zhang you could be right, but she is young enough to go for 2018 if she wants to, but with Gold, Zawadzki, Gao, all likely going to 2018, and all the other up and comers who are just started to be noticed now, she probably wouldnt be any factor by then anyway.