2012-13 ISU Grand Prix Alternate Selection (continued)

[hoptoad]

Never mind! Czisny is still 5th on the world standings list, so I guess she has another year before she has to worry about not getting GP assignments.

[kwanfan1818]

Never mind! Czisny is still 5th on the world standings list, so I guess she has another year before she has to worry about not getting GP assignments.

I think your first instinct is right: she's fifth now, but 1391 points will drop off from the 2010-11 season, and the remaining 1259 points will be factored by .7, leaving her with 881. While every year is different, 881 points would have put her in the 40's on the SB list for GP selection.

The only skaters on the list that have more drop-off points (even with the 70% factor) from 2010-11 than will be retained from 2011-12 with a 70% factor are Nagasu, J. Helgesson, Ando, Phaneuf, Shoji, Flatt, and Glescic. Of these, Phaneuf, Flatt, and Ando are the only ones likely to fall below Czisny, unless she has a spectacular comeback at either 4C's or Worlds -- she can only get credit for one in WS standings -- and earns some GP points, especially since most of those currently below her now have been competing in GP's and Senior B's and can earn some at Euros and 4C's. There are a few like Silete, currently below her, whose been injured and hasn't be able to get GP points, that probably will stay below her.

I don't think any in the top 40's are ineligible for Euros/4C's, and even if they make the Worlds TES minimums there and compete in London, chances are they'd earn more points at Euros/4C's. Yuna Kim will lose 756 points, but could easily pass Czisny were Czisny to earn none this year, by medaling in London.

Getting on the SB list would be a good thing for Czisny, and, as you point out, this cannot be done at a Senior B. Counting on being Top 24 WS or a Skate America host pick, especially if she's weak at Nationals, is not a good bet.

[Rock2]

OK you guys are all depressing me. I'm convinced now that Osmond's not getting another GP.
Oh well, bright side says she goes to the challenge and tries out some new elements and is fresh for the Nats-4CC-World's run

[alilou]

OK you guys are all depressing me. I'm convinced now that Osmond's not getting another GP.
Oh well, bright side says she goes to the challenge and tries out some new elements and is fresh for the Nats-4CC-World's run

I'd love her to get a 2nd GP, but this is a good scenario for sure - fresh for nats, 4cc and worlds

[4rkidz]

I agree, she is also in school so maybe a more balanced schedule to put her in a good place ready for worlds..

[Sylvia]

As mentioned in the Weir thread in GSD, Johnny's name was crossed off the TEB list on the ISU site today: http://isu.sportcentric.net/db//files/serve.php?id=3984

[attyfan]

As mentioned in the Weir thread in GSD, Johnny's name was crossed off the TEB list on the ISU site today: http://isu.sportcentric.net/db//files/serve.php?id=3984

Is it too late to name a different skater?

[kwanfan1818]

Yes and no. The French Fed could, but they aren't obliged to. The top five men on the alternates list are:

Hendrickx, already assigned
Rogozine
Bush
Murakami
Majorov

Correction to earlier posts: I thought Lipnitskaia was at NHK and would rival Suzuki and Asada, but she's at TEB.

[kylet3]

I think one Grand Prix for Kaetlyn at this point is just fine. She can go into challenge fresh without any pressure and work out the little kinks in her skating and work out any little flaws. Go into nationals with some competition experience behind her and then get ready for the 4CC and World Championships in London. She's done spectacularly this season and is on the right track.

[kwanfan1818]

Vartman/van Cleave have been removed from the NHK list as of today. I'm pretty sure there's no one on the alternates list, even if the Japanese Fed wanted to assign someone, because only Senior B's up to Cup of Nice count towards meeting the GP minimum and getting on the list for winning.

[Hedwig]

I hope the ISU makes a provision next year for new ways to get on the alternate list. It is quite ridiculous at this point.
I don't like competitions with only 5 or 6 pairs.

[skatingguy]

Sometimes it seems that these late withdrawals are unavoidable but maybe the ISU could have the alternates for the Grand Prix events listed ahead of time - 2 per discipline per event - it might be an incentive to have the national skating federations withdraw injured skaters earlier than they currently are willing to do.

[fan]

Czisny is now out.

[nlyoung]

Of course she is. And too late for anyone else to be assigned I would imagine...

[carriecmu0503]

I hope the ISU makes a provision next year for new ways to get on the alternate list. It is quite ridiculous at this point.
I don't like competitions with only 5 or 6 pairs.

S/S have officially withdrawn from TEB.

[Jenifer]

It's more than seven days before NHK, so inviting a replacement for Czisny is at the organizers' discretion. I think the ISU should put pressure on them to invite Osmond. The whole point of the GPF is that the six best skaters in the series qualify. To deny someone a chance at qualifying precisely because she has a good shot at it is the antithesis of the whole concept of the Grand Prix. Plus, Canadians don't need a visa to go to Japan and I'd bet that the Canadian fed would be willing to chip in to cover flight expenses

[Tesla]

Nevermind

[SamuraiK]

The cynic in me cant help but thinking S/S withdrawal has also to do with avoiding losing momentun by being beaten by overscored V&T in Sochi . *sighs*

[kwanfan1818]

Since it's between 14 and 7 days before NHK, the GP Announcement is mum on replacement policy, but Czisny could be replaced.

I hope the ISU makes a provision next year for new ways to get on the alternate list. It is quite ridiculous at this point.
I don't like competitions with only 5 or 6 pairs.

For a start, they could stop limiting the number of Senior B's at which a team with a Top 75 SB can meet the ISU minimums. If that were the case, Montalbano/Krasnopolski would have been added to the list after Ice Challenge. (I haven't checked for any others, and in Pairs, any Pair that competed in a senior or junior GP, championship, WTT, or Youth Olympic Games made the Top 75 SB list.) For any discipline but Pairs, this is pretty much irrelevant, since the alternates list is so long, and dance has additional "split couples". Since S/S withdrew so late, though, an alternates list with 20 pairs would have been moot.

I don't think it's reasonable for teams to be place in limbo with their training to be pre-assigned as alternates, although I think hosts should be getting visa paperwork done on a set number of alternates.

For GP, I don't know why they don't start with 1-2 more per discipline, and only go to the alternates list after the current number is reached. If they had nine pairs and lost one, they could start with eight, for example. They have more per group in singles and dance at championships.

The next five Ladies on the alternates list are: Flatt, Osmond, Glebova (at TEB), McCorkell (at TEB), and Lafuente, or if Flatt were removed due to injury, Forte.

If they did want the strongest competitors, they'd put GP medalists with one on the top of the alternates list, and not in a group, skipping only if there was a rules conflict (already assigned, already three from the country) or visa issues. Having the skater's Federation be given the option of paying for the difference between the travel costs of the replacement skater and the already purchased ticket(s) and even the visa costs, if necessary, could be a good option. (The rest of the costs are a wash.)

[sus2850]

Can S/S replace V/V at NHK, or is it: you withdrew from your original assignment, that's it, no second chance for you?