Can Ashley Wagner win world championship in 2013?

[UGG]

Here is a question for everyone: What does Ashley have to do (where does she have to improve) to make herself a championship contender?

skate a really great short program.

Ashley has as good of a chance as anyone. The days of two or three skaters being shoo ins for the podium and gold medal contender are gone. There is no Kwan, Slytskaya, Kim or Cohen, etc...

It's anyone's championship.

For the first time, Ashley LOOKED like a top tier contender. Before last year, she always looked like a B lister like Emily Hugues or someone on that level.

[RumbleFish]

Wagner could win if she 1) gets a triple-triple, and 2) manage to pulloff a decent SP.

As for competition, Yuna Kim probably won't be at the worlds, Asada is well past her prime, and new comers like Gold and baby Russians are not there yet.

[RockTheTassel]

In Ashley's case, I feel like almost anything could happen. I wouldn't be shocked if she won Worlds and I also wouldn't be shocked if she didn't make the World team (hoping for the former scenario, though).

[centerstage01]

Ashley's got just as good a chance as anyone else. Let us repeat our motto: Ice Is Slippery. Anything Can Happen.

[lakewood]

YuNa is very serious about what she says. She will definitely compete at 2013 Worlds and Sochi Olympics.

She later confessed that she didn't want to go to 2011 Worlds, but she did it as her responsibility to Korean sakting. But, this time it is a bit different. She made a decision after a long time of thinking. I think she has some determination to do it herself and confidence too. Without confidence on her skating level, she would not have made a decision to come back.

[RumbleFish]

YuNa is very serious about what she says. She will definitely compete at 2013 Worlds and Sochi Olympics.

She later confessed that she didn't want to go to 2011 Worlds, but she did it as her responsibility to Korean sakting. But, this time it is a bit different. She made a decision after a long time of thinking. I think she has some determination to do it herself and confidence too. Without confidence on her skating level, she would not have made a decision to come back.

Sure, but this is a Wagner thread.

[Mrs. P]

I say yes.

Ashley has momentum on her side and I think she has decent programs this year.

Plus she seems driven to prove that last season was not a fluke.

[Ziggy]

Last year at this time nobody gave Ashley the slightest chance of winning worlds. However, after her strong performance at last year's worlds and early this season, it may not be too unrealistic to consider her as one of the challengers for that title.

What do you think of Ashley at this point?

No way.

She is too inconsistent, too prone to certain mistakes (two-footed landings, flutzes) and doesn't have a reliable 3/3 combo.

Presentation is ok but not outstanding.

The only way she could win would be if everybody else had a meltdown.

Possible but not very likely.

Also there is another thing to consider. US has only two Ladies spots at 2013 Worlds. Placing top 2 at Nationals in the first place is going to be hard enough and isn't a given.

[t.mann]

Presentation is ok but not outstanding.

Agree.

And Wagner does not have even a GPF medal yet.

[smarts1]

^ This could possible be the first year she does that.

[leafygreens]

Exactly, she has had those problems in the past but it looks like she has taken serious steps to correct some of her problems. It doesn't matter what her skating used to be like. "That was then this is now."

Might I add, that Alissa is a GPF champion. That doesn't mean you win WC's. Ashley does not have to medal in GPF although it could be argued that the judges might not "let her" win WC's without it. I just don't think that is realistic, if she skates well at WC. Ashley has already won 4CC's which gives her "rep".

[olympic]

Here is a question for everyone: What does Ashley have to do (where does she have to improve) to make herself a championship contender?

In the SP, I think she needs (1) a reliable 3f-3t which seems to be coming along (WTT). I'm also so happy she decided to do a 3l and get rid of the lutz. (2) Just continue to grow under Nicks' tutelage and refine her technique / artistry. I think the SP is short enough time on the ice where she's less likely to 2-foot landings

In the LP, on the TES side, I actually don't see a path to gain a larger no. of points. She could move her 3 jump combo to the 2d half of the program, do a 3l-2t-2l (3l is strong for her now) instead of a 3f-2t-2t at the beginning (then maybe do a 3f-2t w/ hands overhead for higher GOE in that combo), but that pt. increase is negligible. I don't know if it's possible due to wear and tear on the body, but she could do a 'Gracie' and look at sequences like the 3f - 3s. Otherwise, her biggest point jump will probably come from refining her technique / artistry, eliminate 2-foots, and increase the points she'll accumulate on the PCS side. Also, her 4th place finish at Worlds and her easily claimed #1 spot on the US side will probably help get her 'rewarded' by judges internationally.

[Roxanne]

If Yuna is there, then I don't think Ashley has a chance of winning. But if not, then she has a decent chance of winning. I'm just worried that she'll mess up the SP, as usual.

[demetriosj]

[QUOTE=Alex Forrest;3707986]. If Wagner and Gold stand up in their programs this fall, I think there is NO WAY anyone else is going to Worlds.
QUOTE]

Unfortunately, I think this is true. I believe that even if they skate very mediocre programs, both will be placed higher than deserving skaters with cleaner, more difficult programs at Nationals. (Can understand the reigning champion thing with Wagner......) but, both seem to have been anointed by USFS and it would take a complete meltdown by either for USFS to put anyone else in the two spots.

[toddlj]

http://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/...12/sbtslto.htm

If one was to be totally unbiased, I think the numbers from last year argue in favor of a possible Wagner win.

[peibeck]

And Wagner does not have even a GPF medal yet.

However she won 4CC last year and then was 4th at Worlds (and 3rd in the Free), so I think she has the potential to medal.

There will be no North American countries represented on the Ladies judging panel this year at Worlds, however. (In fact, Canada only gets one judge for the whole comp - in Pairs). So she won't have any advantage in a political sense.

[matvey]

Does anyone seriously think Yuna Kim is returning? Or that Mao Asada is a contender anymore?

Given her performance at the Japan Open, I'd say Mao's looking as promising for the upcoming season as any other skater seeing as she's jumping fairly well again and has a good program, so, yes, I currently consider her to be a contender for a Worlds medal.

Yu-Na is admittedly more of a grey area but I see no reason to write her off just yet.

[Ziggy]

Might I add, that Alissa is a GPF champion. That doesn't mean you win WC's.

Well had Alissa skated two clean programs at Worlds, I believe she'd pretty easily bag the gold, given her very high GOE on spins and the fact the judges would go with her on the PCS especially with a clean program.

[victoriaheidi]

Unfortunately, I think this is true. I believe that even if they skate very mediocre programs, both will be placed higher than deserving skaters with cleaner, more difficult programs at Nationals. (Can understand the reigning champion thing with Wagner......) but, both seem to have been anointed by USFS and it would take a complete meltdown by either for USFS to put anyone else in the two spots.

But that implies that there are skaters with cleaner, more difficult programs who will nail them at Nationals. There are several great contenders, but they still need to prove that they can.

[Ziggy]

But that implies that there are skaters with cleaner, more difficult programs who will nail them at Nationals. There are several great contenders, but they still need to prove that they can.

They are as likely to nail them as Wagner. She's not exactly known for stellar consistency.