Can Ashley Wagner win world championship in 2013?

[Vash01]

Last year at this time nobody gave Ashley the slightest chance of winning worlds. However, after her strong performance at last year's worlds and early this season, it may not be too unrealistic to consider her as one of the challengers for that title.

What do you think of Ashley at this point?

[judgejudy27]

I think she definitely can but I think a silver and bronze is much more likely, and something she would be thrilled with.

[l'etoile]

If other contenders make some mistakes and she goes clean she can definitely win. But I do think if she develops and earns some great mileage with strong performances throughout the season, anything, by that I mean Ashley winning world title is possible.

[judgejudy27]

If everyone skates cleanly at Nationals will she even make the team with Czisny, Nagasu, and Gold, and only 2 spots.

[t.mann]

Non.

Wagner is not WC material.

[Vash01]

If everyone skates cleanly at Nationals will she even make the team with Czisny, Nagasu, and Gold, and only 2 spots.

If she skates clean, I am sure she will be on the team. She was the highest US finisher at worlds last year. If she has a successful GP series, that will cement her spot on the team over 1)inconsistent Czisny, 2)inexperienced Gold (although I suspect the USFSA will want to give her exposure in the pre-Olympic year, 3)at this point Nagasu is as unpredictable as any skater.

[judgejudy27]

If she skates clean, I am sure she will be on the team. She was the highest US finisher at worlds last year. If she has a successful GP series, that will cement her spot on the team over 1)inconsistent Czisny, 2)inexperienced Gold (although I suspect the USFSA will want to give her exposure in the pre-Olympic year, 3)at this point Nagasu is as unpredictable as any skater.

Well I am pretty sure Czisny and Nagasu wont skate cleanly so it is probably moot (Gold might), I am just wondering in a hypothetical they all skate cleanly. It seems the general consensus of people is, or atleast was, that Czisny and Nagasu at their best are better skaters, and Gold is the USFSA darling it seems. Then again Wagner with her international performances might be respected to the point they would give her the benefit even in that case though.

[Vash01]

I don't believe the USFSA will take a chance on Czisny in the pre-Olympic year. They will want to secure 3 spots, and Czisny is a very big risk.

[judgejudy27]

I don't believe the USFSA will take a chance on Czisny in the pre-Olympic year. They will want to secure 3 spots, and Czisny is a very big risk.

Yes come to think of it after last season Czisny will probably be lowballed even if she skates great at Nationals. Also if Wagner and Gold skate well, they wont even have to justify placing even a clean Czisny lower as Wagner has already surpassed Czisny's international PB scores now, and everyone knows Gold is the future being groomed for 2014 and beyond, and her jumping and speed and power far surpass even the good Czisny. They will have ample justifaction to leave her off most likely no matter what, and after last season will be more than happy to do so. Nagasu if has programs and overall skating like what she has shown lately wont score that highly even if she somehow pulled off a cleanish skate.

So I guess come to think of it Wagner doesnt have much to worry about even in that unlikely scenario. She will probably even be kept ahead of Gold until she starts to slip up and/or Gold improves her presentation greatly.

[briancoogaert]

Non.

Wagner is not WC material.

I voted No as well. But not just because she is not a WC material. I think we already have many World champ who were not WC material.
I just guess the better skaters will skate well enough !
And by the way, I really like her style, so, if she wins it, I'll be happy !

[essence_of_soy]

I voted No as well. But not just because she is not a WC material. I think we already have many World champ who were not WC material.
I just guess the better skaters will skate well enough !
And by the way, I really like her style, so, if she wins it, I'll be happy !

What the heck? Skating is all about generating points, anyway.

A title should be earned with the skate and how that skater and their competition do. Reputation counts for something, but pre-determining a win smacks of 2002.

Given how many polls go on here saying that x skater should have won over y, and that there are so many split decisions amongst the judges themselves, the argument for whether a skater is worthy opens up a different can of worms.

So far, Lipnitskaya has the highest total for a free skate (and that includes doubling the triple flip). Is Julia even eligible for Worlds?

[Alex Forrest]

I don't believe the USFSA will take a chance on Czisny in the pre-Olympic year. They will want to secure 3 spots, and Czisny is a very big risk.

You are right. If Wagner and Gold stand up in their programs this fall, I think there is NO WAY anyone else is going to Worlds. USFS totally screwed up in 2009 by sending Czisny, you think they would EVEN CONSIDER her for 2013 Worlds? Please. And beside her spins, what DOES she do better? She's tentative, looks like Bambi on ice and that's not even when she's falling all over the place which she has a bad habit of doing just about everytime. That's her on a GOOD day. No thanks, they will go for the competitors who will land their jumps and lay down a program. Wagner and Gold, that's who I'm calling.

I think anything is possible, and Ashley has grit. She just might be World champ this year. I'm not betting against her.

[Frau Muller]

Absolutely CAN! All the way to Sochi 2014, baby!!!

[briancoogaert]

What the heck? Skating is all about generating points, anyway.

LOL, yes of course. That's what I said ! And I'd prefer a better skater to generate more points.
And as I said, I don't really care since I like her skating !

[Lanna]

So far, Lipnitskaya has the highest total for a free skate (and that includes doubling the triple flip). Is Julia even eligible for Worlds?

No. She eligible for the Olympics, though.

General rule:

Year 1: JGP eligible
Year 2: GP eligible (currently)
Year 3: Worlds/Olympics eligible

[bardtoob]

I don't know, but she did impress me at last year's nationals.

[olympic]

It's possible, yes. Is it likely? No. There are so many other factors that we have to watch over the course of the season which may end up being obstacles -

1. Current world champ Kostner is not competing the GP series this year and must return to defend her title. Will she withstand the nerves and shake off any 'rust'? Will she have all her jumps? I think the blow up in talent this year will put more pressure on her.

2. The power duo from the last quadrennial of Mao and YuNa are back: Mao in good form per the LP at the Japan Open (where coincidentally, she was still beaten by Wagner). YuNa was invincible at one time not too long ago, but I think she'll be just one of a few at the top this time around.

3. Russian babies are moving on up - (1) Sotnikova is good, but by no means a world beater that some were touting, yet still a threatening presence. (2) Tuktamysheva seems to have hit a rut with injury according to other reports. Will she overcome all that? (3) Lipnitskaya, though, looks like a real wunderkind. Which begs the question:

4. Will world silver-medalist Leonova even make the team with the aforementioned 3 making waves? She's a scrapper! ETA to add - I saw the post above that Lipnitskaya is not eligible for Worlds this year, so Leonova should have an easier road for now.

5. Korpi and her inflated marks are back with a vengeance. Will she get ridiculously high marks at Worlds for SWP?

6. Other JPN ladies - I think Ando will be a non-factor, but Suzuki might get in the thick of it.

I think the aforementioned ladies will all be medal threats and that's a big surge in competitive ladies, the biggest I've seen in a while! I count approximately 8 ladies that could theoretically be on the podium. But, unlike certain other talented US ladies, Wagner doesn't wilt in competition and thrives on competition. That is very refreshing to see and could be meaningful when she goes head-to-head with all the above.

ETA- U.S Nationals were mentioned above. GETTING to Worlds shouldn't be a problem for Wagner: She controls her own destiny IMO (barring injury).

Gold seems to be the reasonable choice right now to be the other US lady. She is heavily supported by the USFSA and has the biggest potential. Because Zawadzki could probably be in the medal hunt at Worlds ... after the SP. She's that good, but she's almost always a near-disaster in the LP, her performance at the US B comp nothwithstanding. The door has almost closed on Nagasu. She's had opportunities but never made it happen. However, I do see a concentration this year in just the 2 comps I've seen that's been lacking. She might spoil if there are problems with those ranked ahead of her. Finally, the only other US lady that should be considered is Czisny. She will begin her season at NHK, but I think the mountain is too high for her to climb this year for many reasons - she's normally a headcase and has a really wild resume of results from great to horrible, she's getting a late start due to surgery, and she doesn't have the natural jumping ability that the aforementioned have. It will be really tough for her to get on the team this year.

[Alex Forrest]

5. Korpi and her inflated marks are back with a vengeance. Will she get ridiculously high marks at Worlds for SWP?

Skating While Pretty? Funny. hehe I hope that's what it means, I got it right away.

[leafygreens]

If everyone skates cleanly at Nationals will she even make the team with Czisny, Nagasu, and Gold, and only 2 spots.

Predicting Czisny's hip surgery will make her a non-factor & Nagasu distant 3rd with a couple of headcase errors.

Also predicting the two slots will be Wagner + Gold. There is already so much USFS hype over Gold she will be PCS'd if her jumps fail. Wagner has proven herself last year so they'll give her a slot again this year barring a meltdown. I don't forsee a meltdown with her newfound confidence. If she makes it through SP she can fall in the LP and still be top 2.

YES, Ashley can win WC when she is at her best and I hope she wins. If she makes one error she will get docked big time, though.

This is the year to send two non-headcase skaters so we can get 3 slots for Olys.

A title should be earned with the skate and how that skater and their competition do. Reputation counts for something, but pre-determining a win smacks of 2002.

In a perfect world...

[lowtherlore]

Skating While Pretty? Funny. hehe I hope that's what it means, I got it right away.

Funny. I find Korpi’s skating better than what the timidly uttered “SWP” would insinuate. Cover her face, still I would find her stroking stronger and faster, her jumps fundamentally sound and well rotated, if not always consistent, than, say, those of Asada.