Patrick Chan sees Japan blunders as wake-up call

[Japanfan]

Zemgirl, yeah I get your point. Better play it a little safer if it can help you stay upright. But I would make a guess that Chan's falls usually stem from a loss of focus.

'Play it safe' just encourages skaters to stay in their comfort zone. A whole lot of skaters have fallen over the years while learning a new jump (though of course plenty fall on jumps they already know as well).

Think of all the skaters who have attempted to introduce the quad to their program and failed - remember Buttle who fell all the time on his fully rotated quad to get points? He got very good at that, so good that it looked like the fall was choreographed. Remember Mike Weiss, who was trying to land the quad lutz forever and never did?

Then there were other skaters who lost all their choreography trying to incorporate the quad, like Takeshi.

Men generally need a quad as well as 3A to compete for the podium. And they need the levels and PCS marks as well. There are more falls under CoP than there used to be because programs are now more demanding.

Falling is actually the norm - clean skates the exception.

[Japanfan]

Because obviously the length of their careers is not the same, and while Takahashi and Chan have skated more difficult choreography, Joubert and Plushenko have probably attempted a greater number of more difficult jumps. Anyway, interesting comparison.

Joubert and Plushenko would have a greater number because they skated longer. Plushenko did have the 4-3-3 and 4-3-2, which Patrick hasn't done, but he did the 4-3-3 rarely.

Or maybe you mean that they had two different quads, while Patrick only has the toe? I don't remember.

Also, Joubert and Plush are from the 6.0 school and never had Patrick's level of difficulty. This is true of Joubert especially. And he had more falls than Patrick. Excepting a short period in his career, he has never been a consistent jumper.

[Zemgirl]

Joubert and Plushenko would have a greater number because they skated longer. Plushenko did have the 4-3-3 and 4-3-2, which Patrick hasn't done, but he did the 4-3-3 rarely.

Or maybe you mean that they had two different quads, while Patrick only has the toe? I don't remember.

Also, Joubert and Plush are from the 6.0 school and never had Patrick's level of difficulty. This is true of Joubert especially. And he had more falls than Patrick. Excepting a short period in his career, he has never been a consistent jumper.

I meant that both Joubert and Plushenko have had considerably longer careers than Chan and that they have been doing quads for their entire careers, while Chan introduced it into his jump repertoire midway through his career. They also had a relatively consistent 3A earlier than he did. More difficult jumps = more opportunity to fail on said jumps. I believe that umronnie did some analysis a few months ago indicating that Plushenko and Joubert have actually had a very good rate of success on their quads.

I seriously doubt that Joubert has had more falls than Chan in his career, percentage-wise. When Joubert runs into problems, it's usually with messy landings rather than falls. And while falls are not necessarily a technique issue, and not necessarily the worst one when they are a technique issue, they are an execution issue - and a serious one that should be penalized. I don't agree that a difficult jump entry should make up for a mistake on the jump, although I also don't agree with those who suggest that falls should be penalized with zero points - because it's not only about the landing. But I do believe that the emphasis should be more on the execution of the jump itself (height, distance, correct takeoff, rotation, good running edge coming out, etc.) than the entry to it, so long as it's not hideously telegraphed or the solo jump out of steps in the SP.

Re difficulty, Chan has generally had more difficult choreo and steps (note that Plush was among the first to do level 4 steps, though), but at times he did not have the most difficult/best jumps (or spins). So his programs were more difficult in some ways and easier in others. Earlier in his career, Chan would pretty consistently have lower base value than most of the top skaters he was competing against, and even today, his BV is not always the highest. I'm sure it wasn't at 2012 Worlds.

Finally, re your response to Ziggy's reply to me, I'll just say again that "play it safer" does not mean "play it safe and empty your program of all content". I see it as a continuum rather than as two polar opposites with no points in between. For example - like the choreo and elements in S/S's Pina were modified a bit as the season progressed; it was still an insanely difficult program, but it was better suited to what they needed to do and could do. I believe that Chan tinkered some with the entry to his 4T in 2010-11, though I can't say for sure.

Sorry for the somewhat tl:dr post, I tried to keep it short...

[Marco]

Well, Yuna Kim had never had a clean competition (her closest was 2007 Cup of Russia, and even then she singled an axel in the short) before she skated a clean competition at the biggest competition of her life at the Olympics. Same for Hughes who had never landed 2 3/3s until the Olympics.

The key for Patrick, when he chooses to skate with such difficulty both choreographically and technically, is that he needs to pace himself and not peak too early. He really only needs to hit one or twice a season, and by 'hitting' he doesn't even have to be perfect (as 2012 Worlds show). And he is already a 2 time world champion so if he wants, he only really needs to seriously hit once more - at Sochi, and the rest will be history.

I hope he realizes that he will need to have a real coach for next season if not this season too.

[umronnie]

Still, I would much rather see 4 fall programs as complex as Chan's than clean programs as barftastic as Plushenko's. And I find it very said that most figure skating fans don't agree. I mean casual viewers I can get but if you know something about skating, you should be able to recognise all the incredible skills and difficulty that Chan shows falls or not and whether you like his style (I don't) or not.

Wait till he wins gold in Sochi with 4 falls. We'll miss SLC...

Why do you see a fall as the ultimate mistake?

I would much rather see a skater fall on a fully rotated jump (or an attempt at a fully rotated jump) than flutz, two-foot a landing or pop. Because I know that at least they are going for it and fighting and not playing it safe (or having incorrect technique in the first place).

Of course he's going for it. Under CoP it's way better to fall on a quad than to land a beautiful triple. A fall on a 4T is worth 10.3-3.0-1.0=6.3. A +3 GoE on a 3T is worth 4.1+2.1=6.2. A fall on a 3A is worth 4.5. A+3 GoE on a 2A is worth 4.8...

If a skater fully rotates a jump and falls on the landing, they have executed the large part of that element correctly. And they fought for it. They went for it. It didn't work but skating is an extremely difficult sport requiring precise timing and full body control. It won't always work.

If somebody lands on two-feet (unless it's by accident), it screams "I am playing it safe/I am scared I won't make it/etc.".

Yet people see a fall as much worse.

I would like to think that people two-foot as a mistake and not intentionally, just as I'd like to think that people fall as a mistake and not as a strategy to get the "rotation points". Call me naive. I think that "fighting for a jump" also means making a big effort to land it even if it is not good. This also requires great body control. That's how Lysacek managed to stay upright.

Once we've established that these are both mistakes and not matters of technique I'd like to ask why the landing of a jump, which is the actual touch of the blade to the ice (isn't that what skating is about) is less important than the action in the air - counting revolutions. They are both mistakes but while not meeting the numbers of revolutions, or not landing cleanly mean a flawed execution of the element, a fall on the landing means it was not completed in the first place.

Of course, he has executed these programs cleanly before. Just not often

Of course he has. 8 times, to be exact (for the LP).

Also, Joubert and Plush are from the 6.0 school and never had Patrick's level of difficulty. This is true of Joubert especially. And he had more falls than Patrick. Excepting a short period in his career, he has never been a consistent jumper.

Has Joubert had more falls that Chan over 11-years long his career? Probably. In the past 6 seasons, though, he fell 15 times to Patrick's 42 (it was all in the data I posted yesterday). As for the quad, as Zemgirl noted, I did do an analysis of quad jumps (I don't know how to link it, it is a thread titled "The kings of quad" and is currently buried at page 12 of the Trash Can). Both Plushy and Joubert have been landing quads with a success rate of over 80% in the past 11 seasons (over 100 attempts). Chan has a good success rate overall, 74% out of 20-something attempts. It means that after Plushy and Joubert, Chan is the best quad-master we have right now.

[VarBar]

Wait till he wins gold in Sochi with 4 falls. We'll miss SLC...

In all fairness, Chan never won any of his World medals with four falls. Not even three falls and not even two falls in both programs, so why would he win in Sochi with 4 falls?

[Zemgirl]

In all fairness, Chan never won any of his World medals with four falls. Not even three falls and not even two falls in both programs, so why would he win in Sochi with 4 falls?

Sochi could turn out to be a complete splatfest... but let's hope that whoever wins will do so with two great programs, like Kim in Vancouver.

BTW, I don't recall multiple falls, but Chan's LP at 2010 Worlds was definitely sloppy.

Well, Yuna Kim had never had a clean competition (her closest was 2007 Cup of Russia, and even then she singled an axel in the short) before she skated a clean competition at the biggest competition of her life at the Olympics. Same for Hughes who had never landed 2 3/3s until the Olympics.

A program with a 1A can still be clean, it's just not the content that was planned. Also, I think clean competitions are rare for most skaters; it may be better to consider clean programs, and Yu-Na had plenty of those.

I hope he realizes that he will need to have a real coach for next season if not this season too.

For sure.

I did do an analysis of quad jumps (I don't know how to link it, it is a thread titled "The kings of quad" and is currently buried at page 12 of the Trash Can). Both Plushy and Joubert have been landing quads with a success rate of over 80% in the past 11 seasons (over 100 attempts). Chan has a good success rate overall, 74% out of 20-something attempts. It means that after Plushy and Joubert, Chan is the best quad-master we have right now.

Here's the thread in question, if anyone wants to take a look.

[fscric]

In all fairness, Chan never won any of his World medals with four falls. Not even three falls and not even two falls in both programs, so why would he win in Sochi with 4 falls?

To our much disappointment, he wasn't even able to win this JO when so many people have declared with authority that he would win with 4, 5 up to 10 falls.

[umronnie]

^^
To clarify, I did not mean that Chan wins major competitions with 4 falls (he did win SC once with 4 falls, but that was another splatfest). It was a response to Ziggi preferring a 4-fall complex program by Chan to a clean skate by Plushenko...

[l'etoile]

Talks about clean performances just bring about Michelle's unbelievable ability. She truly is one of a kind.

[Iceman]

Gymnast McKayla Maroney fell on her bottom on the landing in the vault event at the London Olympics and scored 14.300 on that vault. Her two combined vaults brought her the silver medal.

I said "usually", not always.

[flipforsynchro]

Of course he's going for it. Under CoP it's way better to fall on a quad than to land a beautiful triple. A fall on a 4T is worth 10.3-3.0-1.0=6.3. A +3 GoE on a 3T is worth 4.1+2.1=6.2. A fall on a 3A is worth 4.5. A+3 GoE on a 2A is worth 4.8...

I'd rather watch every man in a competition fall on a fully rotated quad toe than a land a beautiful triple toe in place of it.

[PeterG]

Talks about clean performances just bring about Michelle's unbelievable ability. She truly is one of a kind.

There will never be another Michelle Currie.

[clarie]

I'd rather watch every man in a competition fall on a fully rotated quad toe than a land a beautiful triple toe in place of it.

And....I would rather see a jump attempted, rotated, and a fall instead of a "pop". To me that disrupts the program more than anything.

[antmanb]

And....I would rather see a jump attempted, rotated, and a fall instead of a "pop". To me that disrupts the program more than anything.

I'm just not seeing how someone falling on a jump can be less disruptive than doing a double or single instead of a triple (or quad). The most disruptive thing that happens when you pop a jump is opening out, which rarely, if ever affects the timing of the element in terms of of its placement in the programme and musically too, a fall, even one when the skater gets up quickly and carries on means the timing on the programme goes out, even for a just a couple of seconds while the skater gets back to where they should be after the fall.

[Japanfan]

I'm just not seeing how someone falling on a jump can be less disruptive than doing a double or single instead of a triple (or quad). The most disruptive thing that happens when you pop a jump is opening out, which rarely, if ever affects the timing of the element in terms of of its placement in the programme and musically too, a fall, even one when the skater gets up quickly and carries on means the timing on the programme goes out, even for a just a couple of seconds while the skater gets back to where they should be after the fall.

A pop often stuns a skater, causing the skater to lose both rhythm and timing. There is usually a moment when you can see the skater stop and be certain he/she is thinking "darn, I just popped'. And as a pop can be even more costly than fall, it can cause a skater to lose momentum psychologically, not just physically.

[l'etoile]

There will never be another Michelle Currie.

You never pass any chance.

[unicorn]

Remember Mike Weiss, who was trying to land the quad lutz forever and never did?

But his quad lutz at the 1998 National Championships is the closest to success before Mroz.

[lala]

Plushenko has since landed his 4-3-2 combination 26 times, he landed 4-3-3 combo 4 times, he landed more than 100 quad in competitions. If I right remember he fell in major competitions only two times 2002 in his SP in SLC and in 2005 WCH, where he was injured, he withdrew.
Plushy have been landing quads with a success rate of over 90%.

Yes, and some of 4-3-2 and 4-3-3 combos were 4t-3lo-2lo and 4t-3lo-3lo!!!


Plushenko's quad lutz attemt
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yEvVzq_uyA

[Sedge]

Both Plushy and Joubert have been landing quads with a success rate of over 80% in the past 11 seasons (over 100 attempts). Chan has a good success rate overall, 74% out of 20-something attempts. It means that after Plushy and Joubert, Chan is the best quad-master we have right now.

Might want to check out the skater from Spain