TES for Junior Worlds - USA

[johndockley92]

I thought I'd put together a list of the skaters who can (or can't) go to Junior worlds based on meeting the minimum requirements for technical score. I realize there's still two more events, but the only skaters (that are likely) attending said events that haven't met the requirements yet are Zaitsev/Stevens.

Pairs - Simpson/Blackmer, Calalang/Sidhu, Denney/Frazier, Oltmanns/Santillan, Pfund/Reiss, Aaron/Settlage

All Dance teams that have competed internationally in the last two seasons have met the minimum requirements.

All men that have competed internationally in the last two seasons have met the minimum requirements besides Lukas K and James S.

All ladies that have competed internationally in the last two seasons have met the minimum requirements besides Nina J and Lauren Dinh.

I believe we have three spots in all of the disciplines so it's good that we have plenty of skaters to fill out those spots.

It is interesting to note, however, that the only lady competing junior this year domestically who has posted a minimum technical score is Barbie Long - Perhaps USFS putting their stock in her.


Cheers!

[haribobo]

Thanks for posting- interesting stuff. I think the Barbie Long thing is just how it ended up working out. If a bunch of US ladies bombed then we would probably have seen Edmunds and Mariah Bell with assignments too. Gold, Miller, and Cain also medaled at Nationals on the junior level but all moved up to senior in the US this year. If Edmunds skates lights out and wins Nationals on the junior level, she will probably be sent somewhere before junior worlds to attain the score...but there are likely enough contendors between Cesario, Hicks, Lam, Wang, Keiser, Miller, etc. that the junior medalists might not even get to go...it will depend how things play out a bit though.

[pinky166]

Thanks for posting- interesting stuff. I think the Barbie Long thing is just how it ended up working out. If a bunch of US ladies bombed then we would probably have seen Edmunds and Mariah Bell with assignments too. Gold, Miller, and Cain also medaled at Nationals on the junior level but all moved up to senior in the US this year. If Edmunds skates lights out and wins Nationals on the junior level, she will probably be sent somewhere before junior worlds to attain the score...but there are likely enough contendors between Cesario, Hicks, Lam, Wang, Keiser, Miller, etc. that the junior medalists might not even get to go...it will depend how things play out a bit though.

True. Leah K was sent to Challenge Cup last year which was before JW so they could probably have Edmunds go to that if she skates really well at Nationals, wins, and USFS wants her on the JW team (though it would have just been easier to give her a JGP...sigh). My guess though is that if Edmunds is say 2nd, and Long 3rd at Nationals, then they might just send Long to JW over Edmunds along with 2 ladies competing as seniors at Nationals who competed on the JGP this fall and met the minimum score. Some of those girls may be aiming to make senior worlds though, like Cesario or Wang, although that's going to be really tough with only 2 spots and lots of competition.

[wowonice]

I realize that it's probably explained somewhere in FSU but...How can someone explain briefly how the minimum requirements work? I see the names listed above, does that mean that only those skaters would be eligible for Junior Worlds? What about the skaters who do well at Nationals but have not competed internationally? I.E., Mariah Bell- she did not receive a JGP assignment but could potentially do well at Nationals. Would she not be eligible for JW? Is there a time frame in which the minimum technical score must be met? Does it have to be in a 'big' competition: Nationals/ International?
The minute I think that I'm finally grasping things, I find myself baffled all over again..

[Sylvia]

Leah K was sent to Challenge Cup last year which was before JW so they could probably have Edmunds go to that if she skates really well at Nationals, wins, and USFS wants her on the JW team (though it would have just been easier to give her a JGP...sigh). My guess though is that if Edmunds is say 2nd, and Long 3rd at Nationals, then they might just send Long to JW over Edmunds along with 2 ladies competing as seniors at Nationals who competed on the JGP this fall and met the minimum score.

Why would the 2013 U.S. Junior ladies champ be bypassed in your scenario?

I realize that it's probably explained somewhere in FSU but...How can someone explain briefly how the minimum requirements work?

Here's a thread in GSD you can check out: Minimum Total Technical Scores for 2012-13 ISU Championships (including Jr Worlds)
ISU World Junior Figure Skating Championships 2013:
MEN SP (TES) 20.00 ; FS (TES) 40.00
LADIES SP 20.00 ; FS 35.00
PAIR SKATING SP 20.00 ; FS 30.00
ICE DANCE SD 17.00 ; FD 27.00

I see the names listed above, does that mean that only those skaters would be eligible for Junior Worlds? What about the skaters who do well at Nationals but have not competed internationally? I.E., Mariah Bell- she did not receive a JGP assignment but could potentially do well at Nationals. Would she not be eligible for JW? Is there a time frame in which the minimum technical score must be met?

The minimum TES scores, both SP and FS, would have to be met before 2013 Junior Worlds takes place. Looking at the 2013 ISU calendar, Challenge Cup in The Hague (Feb. 21-24) is the week before 2013 Junior Worlds in Milan (Feb. 25-Mar. 3), as well as the 1st Citta’ di Torino Trophy, which has a junior event. However, unless the 2013 Junior ladies champ wins in a rout -- like Agnes Zawadzki did in 2010 and Courtney Hicks in 2011 -- I think it's most likely the top 3 finishing Senior ladies at 2013 Nationals that competed on the JGP this season will be selected for Junior Worlds, with Junior Grand Prix Final results being factored in as well.

[haribobo]

Why would the 2013 U.S. Junior ladies champ be bypassed in your scenario?

That's a really good question, and it made me giggle.

[icellist]

Why would the 2013 U.S. Junior ladies champ be bypassed in your scenario?

Because Karen Chen is age ineligible? just a thought.

[Sylvia]

OK, thanks (pinky166 didn't spell it out for us). If Chen does happen to win, I don't think the junior ladies silver medalist would be sent to Junior Worlds, though. There already are 5 JGP medalists to choose from at the Senior level (Cesario, Hicks, Keiser, Miller, Wang).

[pinky166]

Because Karen Chen is age ineligible? just a thought.

This is true, but I more meant if say Edmunds, or Bell, were to beat Long by a narrow margin, then because the result was close and Barbie had already competed internationally, earned the minimum TES, and placed well at a JGP and the other two don't have international experience, then she could be named to the team instead. I mean, Dornbush was sent to 4CC over Armin on the basis of international results, and in 2010 Kiri Baga was sent to JW after placing a distant 4th at junior nationals behind Siraj and Davis, who had never competed internationally at that point and were left off the team, presumably because Kiri had competed and done well on the JGP that fall.

[UDelpairs2012]

Belt and Johnson also achieved the minimums at the Youth Olympics if that competition counts towards this requirement.

[Sylvia]

Thanks, 2012 Youth Olympic Games should count since the scores are included as ISU personal bests in the skaters' bios as well as in the ISU's 2011-12 SB lists. Jordan Bauth also achieved the Junior Worlds minimums at YOG with her 7th place finish there.

[mgobluegirl]

in 2010 Kiri Baga was sent to JW after placing a distant 4th at junior nationals behind Siraj and Davis, who had never competed internationally at that point and were left off the team, presumably because Kiri had competed and done well on the JGP that fall.

IIRC, in 2010, Siraj was not age-eligible yet for junior internationals, and Davis' bronze medal seemed, even at the time, a bit of a fluke. Kiri had a very poor skate in the FS at nationals, but she'd been impressive on the JGP that year, and was originally first alternate. She went to JW in place of Ashley Wagner, when Wagner withdrew. USFS seems to factor other things besides nationals placement more heavily when choosing alternates than choosing the original team (Dornbush is another example of this).

[pinky166]

I suppose, but Farris was still named to JW last season after placing 16th at Nationals. I don't recall if any other senior men besides him and Brown were age eligible for JW, but the case could have been made to send Phillip Warren instead. Of course, sending Farris was the right call because he had won both his GPs, placed a close 3rd at the JGPF, and ended up nearly winning JW, but he didn't skate well at Nationals and if that's what USFS was really looking at mainly to determine these teams, then he could have been left off the team, like he was in 2011 (he was injured anyways but yeah).

Does anyone think the men's JW team has any chance of not being Chen, Brown, and Farris? Zhou is too young, and I guess in theory, if Farris (or Brown, if he magically develops a consistent 3a by then) pulls a Dornbush and goes to Senior Worlds, someone else could go, like Choate, Omari, or Yostanto, or if one of Farris/Brown were to bomb Nats and someone like Choate placed ahead of them, they could also be left off the team, but as Choate has no 3a is unlikely to make the JGPF and the other two already have, I guess he could be passed over in favor of one of those two (Brown is a USFS pet, Farris does not appear to be but receives really good scores internationally and has 3a and 4t)

[haribobo]

I suppose, but Farris was still named to JW last season after placing 16th at Nationals. I don't recall if any other senior men besides him and Brown were age eligible for JW, but the case could have been made to send Phillip Warren instead.

Brown is a USFS pet

Farris and Brown were the only 2 guys in the whole senior field that were still age-eligible. Farris scored 197 in senior men and Warren scored 182 in junior men, and their international placements weren't even close, so any way you cut it, sending Farris was the right bet- you can't argue that its always J3>S16 if S16 is actually scoring higher and more competitive. Not for the men anyway. You could for the ladies- because J3 (Hannah Miller) scored 149, vs. S16 (Haley Dunne) with 136....even if you broke it down to just TES score I would think Hannah comes out quite a bit ahead on that one. We'll see if the same happens this year- although the top 3 junior ladies can score quite well, there's a large amount of highly skilled senior ladies as well...

I'm a bit uncomfortable with calling any skater a "USFS pet" - it has connotations that they are getting spots or support they don't deserve- which really does not describe Brown's history. He and Josh have been equally treated and are equally deserving of the spots they've gotten and it is aggravating to me when posters try to imply otherwise. Go ahead and wax poetic about lack of 3ax this and inflated PCS at Nationals that... but its all trash IMO.

[mgobluegirl]

IMO, Farris would have placed higher at nationals in both 2012 and 2011 had he skated better. His placements had nothing to do with lack of support from USFS.

[pinky166]

IMO, Farris would have placed higher at nationals in both 2012 and 2011 had he skated better. His placements had nothing to do with lack of support from USFS.

Probably right, but I do think it's interesting that, last season at least, he was one of few skaters to receive PCS DE-flation at Nationals compared to internationals, and it's not like he had skated brilliant freeskates on the JGP last season despite all his medals, so that was more something I noted. Other skaters got inflation of PCS in the vicinity of 5 points compared to international, while he lost around 4. The only other skater I can think of that's had that happen at Nationals is Caroline Zhang. Anyways, Brown had a bad FS at Nats too but it didn't hurt his PCS, which was around 5 points higher than what he was getting on the JGP for really good performances. In any event, it's kind of a moot point because skating in an early warmup and not skating well on some level explains the PCS being low even if others weren't docked for it, hopefully he'll skate well at Nationals this season and earn PCS he deserves and it will be a non-issue. I think I'm mostly still a little upset about him not competing on the GP this season and still suspect something fishy went on with USFS regarding that one, but maybe it's for the best.

Anyone know if Harrison has a 3a yet? Maybe he could make the JW team this season if so.

[johndockley92]

Does anyone think the men's JW team has any chance of not being Chen, Brown, and Farris?

I think that Chen could easily lose his Junior title this season; however if he makes the JGPF, the 3 sent to JR worlds will be set in stone IMO

[pinky166]

I think that Chen could easily lose his Junior title this season; however if he makes the JGPF, the 3 sent to JR worlds will be set in stone IMO

Well, he didn't do great in the SP but even if the placements stay as is, he should qualify with a 4th place finish, and he's definitely capable of moving up as Choate has no 3a and isn't that great otherwise IMO. Anyways, who do you think would take the title from him besides maybe Vincent Zhou who is too young for JW? Choate, Warren, Dolensky, and Koleto are all moving up to seniors, and Omori and Yostanto haven't exactly been posting huge numbers on the JGP... The junior mens field this season actually seems a bit sparse apart from Chen and Zhou.

Anyways I hope that if Farris were to skate lights out at Nats, he'd at least be considered for 4CC and/or Worlds, I know when Dornbush was sent he was a year or two older than Farris, but he had been on the JGP that fall and apart from the final wasn't even dominating that stage really, placing 4th in one event and not breaking the 200 mark for the one he won.

Speaking of the 200 point mark, a little bit off-topic but considering this thread is about scores, what would you guys consider the ladies equivalent score to the men's score of 200 to be? I was thinking about that the other day and wasn't sure. 150? Ish. I had been noticing that the JGP scores on the ladies side, apart from Radinova, seemed pretty low, with most winners not breaking 160 and sometimes not even 150.

[haribobo]

Anyways I hope that if Farris were to skate lights out at Nats, he'd at least be considered for 4CC and/or Worlds, I know when Dornbush was sent he was a year or two older than Farris, but he had been on the JGP that fall and apart from the final wasn't even dominating that stage really, placing 4th in one event and not breaking the 200 mark for the one he won.

The years that Dornbush won his silver and went to Worlds, there was no Weir or Lysacek in the mix- his skating at Nationals that year was exceptional, but he might've finished 4th anyway if Johnny and Evan were there. So there was more of a chance for him to break through. This year, not only are Johnny and Evan back and Ricky is still around, but Jeremy, Ross, and Adam are still around, and Armin, Keegan, and Max are skating great too...so unless Josh skates so well that he medals at Nationals and several of the "senior" guys bomb, he'll likely just be on the Junior Worlds team again.

As for who could defeat Nathan at Nationals, probably the poster meant Vincent Zhou. I'm not sure anyone else could barring some crazy fluke injury/loss of skill, but we'll see how the FS in Croatia goes...

[Vagabond]

As for who could defeat Nathan at Nationals, probably the poster meant Vincent Zhou. I'm not sure anyone else could barring some crazy fluke injury/loss of skill, but we'll see how the FS in Croatia goes...

There is another American man ahead of him in the Croatia Cup at the moment, and it isn't Vincent Zhou.

I also seem to recall something a few years back about how Caroline Zhang was a shoo-in to win Junior Ladies at U.S. Nationals in 2007.