View Poll Results: Which of these 3 American skaters is most likely to be successful in seniors?

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  • Jason Brown

    9 7.96%
  • Joshua Farris

    57 50.44%
  • Nathan Chen

    47 41.59%
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  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by museksk8r View Post
    Farris is fully aware and acknowledges in interviews that he needs and wants to improve on the artistic side of his skating. There's still time for that. Besides, Evgeni Plushenko, Evan Lysacek, and Patrick Chan all skate through the music all the time in their competitive programs and it never hurts their PCS scores. I really don't think the judges focus as much as they should on the musical interpretation component of the PCS, which is a shame.
    I'm very aware of the fact that there are A LOT of skaters who skate through the music and get high scores. But it doesn't mean that I want them to.

  2. #22
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    Farris got my vote, but I think also Chen will be successful in seniors. Of course Brown has chances, too, but in this moment his 3 axel does not look very promising, in my opinion.

  3. #23

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    Quote Originally Posted by Macassar88 View Post
    I agree with parts of this analysis, but I feel like he could be more in tune with the music. I'm especially referencing his FS to Rachmaninoff. To me, that piece is like a souffle - if you do too much with it, it will be awful and if you don't do enough with it, it will also be awful, and I feel like he was pretty much skating through the music. I understand that he's a junior and there's time to improve, but there is much to improve. I also feel like his choreography could be improved. Having a skater doing crossovers during the climax of the rach 2 finale was an awful idea.
    Wow, that is so different from the way I see it.
    I think Farris is quite artistic already. He is a classicist, for sure, more self- contained than some skaters, but with a great ear for music and a very attractive precision of movement. I was just remarking yesterday on how well the second half of his LP is constructed and how well he "flows" with it. Which version did you watch? The ISU Lake Placid video is out of sync and thus makes no sense. To get the right impression, one needs either to watch Icenetwork video of Lake Placid LP or the most recent JGP LP in Bled. http://youtu.be/Ec0vwjBlQnE
    What I see is that Joshua times his movements, their speed and amplitude, very precisely to the length of musical phrases, which is the mark of somebody who listens attentively and it cannot be faked. Starting from 2:40- it is not busy, and I love it that way, because the broadness of movement mirrors the broadness of music, and it's timed very well.
    ... and if Rachmaninov program is simply not to your liking, consider Josh's SPs from last year or this year.
    improving my ballad- like lines

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by dinakt View Post
    Wow, that is so different from the way I see it.
    I think Farris is quite artistic already. He is a classicist, for sure, more self- contained than some skaters, but with a great ear for music and a very attractive precision of movement. I was just remarking yesterday on how well the second half of his LP is constructed and how well he "flows" with it. Which version did you watch? The ISU Lake Placid video is out of sync and thus makes no sense. To get the right impression, one needs either to watch Icenetwork video of Lake Placid LP or the most recent JGP LP in Bled. http://youtu.be/Ec0vwjBlQnE
    What I see is that Joshua times his movements, their speed and amplitude, very precisely to the length of musical phrases, which is the mark of somebody who listens attentively and it cannot be faked. Starting from 2:40- it is not busy, and I love it that way, because the broadness of movement mirrors the broadness of music, and it's timed very well.
    ... and if Rachmaninov program is simply not to your liking, consider Josh's SPs from last year or this year.
    I watched the Slovenia JGP one and I still felt pretty much the same. I guess it's a difference in what we both look for in skating.

  5. #25

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    Quote Originally Posted by Macassar88 View Post
    I watched the Slovenia JGP one and I still felt pretty much the same. I guess it's a difference in what we both look for in skating.
    Quizas, quizas, quizas, though I don't think it'll hold true in every case.
    improving my ballad- like lines

  6. #26

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    I'm very at the lack of faith in Jason.

  7. #27
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    Chen is amazing to watch live. He has a speed and grace that I think will continue to mature. His musicality feels very natural.

    While growth may happen, with his foundation, I think it will be a rough season or two but he is committed to get pushing through it.

  8. #28

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    Quote Originally Posted by misskarne View Post
    I'm very at the lack of faith in Jason.
    Why do you care what others think of him? (especially in a poll thread in the Trash Can?)

    I don't believe this fun item has been posted on FSU... Nathan Chen recently made the Oct. 1st issue of Sports Illustrated's "Faces in the Crowd" ( for the inclusion of a figure skater!): http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/sco...0/1/index.html
    Nathan Chen
    Salt Lake City > Figure Skating

    Nathan, a homeschooled 13-year-old who trains in Lake Arrowhead, Calif., defeated 21 competitors to win his first Junior Grand Prix event, in Linz, Austria. He held a 14-point lead after his short program and landed six triple jumps in the second half of his free skate, including a triple flip-triple toe loop combination for the highest scoring mark of the competition (11.34) and a 37-point margin of victory. A two-time U.S. novice champion, Nathan won the U.S. junior men's title in January.
    P.S. For fans like me who have followed the careers of many young skaters through the years, I've learned to appreciate their talents "in the moment" and to appreciate their accomplishments as they happen.

    Some fans will always want to project into the future and predict greatness (or not), but winning one JGP gold medal, or any medal, is an amazing achievement even if a skater never reaches the same level of senior international success.

    I define "success" for any skater as being able to maximize, as much as possible with regard to their individual circumstances, his/her potential as an athlete and competitor, and not by the number of medals they win.
    Last edited by Sylvia; 10-04-2012 at 06:27 PM. Reason: to tweak my wording
    "Randy [Starkman (1960-April 16, 2012)] lived by the same motto as the rest of us. The Olympics isn’t every four years, it’s every single day. He just got it." --Canadian Olympic kayaker Adam van Koeverden

  9. #29
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    Some fans will always want to project into the future and predict greatness (or not), but winning one JGP gold medal, or any medal, is an amazing achievement even if a skater never reaches the same level of senior international success.

    Nathan and his mom sat with me and my daughter for an event and they were both very gracious. That really colors my opinion as well! I do agree, it is wonderful to just enjoy the "now".

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by misskarne View Post
    I'm very at the lack of faith in Jason.
    I don't think there's a lack of faith, I think most people just don't want to count their chickens before they hatch, so to speak. Because Jason doesn't have a consistent 3a yet and no rumor of training a quad has even been mentioned, I think most people are just developing a wait and see approach toward him. It's not a question of talent, which he obviously has in spades. It's just in comparison to someone like Chen, who at barely 13 has already had more success with the 3a than Jason at nearly 18, or Josh, who has had a pretty consistent and high quality 3a for awhile now and has shown he's capable of a beautiful 4t in competition, there's less concrete material to base projections on. Nathan has a lot of growing up to do, but for Josh, he has the jumps already, it's mostly a matter of building up further power, consistency, and artistry, which is easier to assume will happen than Jason mastering the 3a and 4t in a short term frame of reference. Does that make sense? I really like Jason and think his skating is just so unique and dancey, but I'd be more confident if he had jumps like Josh, who I find quite artistic already (though I realize I'm in the minority who think that at this point).

  11. #31
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    Joshua Farris, Joshua Farris. He's got the jumps and artistry. He is on the ball.

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by misskarne View Post
    ...
    Jason will be amazingly good as a Senior though once he gets the 3A landed properly. At the moment, much as it pains me to say, he has too many question marks over him to get top spot...

    Quote Originally Posted by misskarne View Post
    I'm very at the lack of faith in Jason.
    Really? Despite even the fact you too evinced a "lack of faith in Jason."


    Quote Originally Posted by briancoogaert View Post
    Johnny Weir was amazing by 17. I think I prefered him at this time.
    Ha ha, yes indeed. Johnny was even amazing at 12 when he began skating, and at 16 when he became Junior World champion. Different eras, folks, different rules, different requirements, different training demands and different expectations.

    Johnny was at his peak at ages 19 - 24 perhaps, and he's come back at the age of 28, and he's still competitive, altho' physically his best days are behind him. Yet, he's still landing difficult jumps, just not with the same seemingly easy, effortless panache.

    Re the poll: Each one of these budding young skaters are unique in their own way and they will each develop at their own pace and their futures are all said and done, ... unpredictable. After all, this is Figure Skating, innit?

  13. #33
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    The thing with Jason is just that there's so much that needs to be accomplished technically if he wants to have a shot at being competition for the big guns. It's pretty much standard for international contenders among the men on the senior level to be attempting a quad in their SPs, and then either a quad and two 3As, two quads and one 3A, and now even some are going for two quads and two 3As, in the FS. Maybe this will change after Sochi, but if it doesn't, Jason has a lot of work to do. Whereas for Josh I think he could be attempting that kind of content with some success as early as next season. As for Jason, realistically that will take a few years at least, if he even manages to truly master any of a 3A, 4t, or 4S at all. And now he's getting dinged for flutzing too, which he really can't afford with his limited technical arsenal at this point. I think he might have a hard time trying to defend his title at the JGPF honestly, and that's even with Han Yan most likely not being there, just where, going off of scores, Farris and Kovtun are head and shoulders ahead of him at this point. It's not just technically either, going off of numbers Brown is unlikely to have a PCS margin on either of those two to serve as a buffer, and might even lag a bit behind them even in that department. Even Jin despite being so young and coltish, already beat Jason once due to his superior technical abilities. Tanaka and Hino are prone to mistakes and aren't so strong artistically, but at least they both have 3a, and for Hino, his is huge, gorgeous, and really consistent. Brown's 3a was pretty close in Turkey, but pretty close isn't good enough, he needs it solid, consistent, and have 2 in his FS asap so he can shift his attention to training a quad which he will also need to be competitive on the senior level and maybe even to medal at JGPF or JW this season.

  14. #34
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    ^^ Like I said "different eras, different rules, different expectations," but seriously what else must Jason do before it's really, really, really too late? Jason's musicality, artistry, and unique movement style rivals that of many men on the senior level. Yadda, yadda re 3-axel, and demands that Jason must have "2 in his FS asap so he can shift his attention to training a quad..." Gosh, you guys are such serious taskmasters. Do you have Kori Ade's number on speed dial? It won't be the "end of the world" if Jason doesn't medal at JGPF or JW this season (but he is likely to anyway).

    I'm going to sit back and enjoy each moment, each season, each wonderful performance from all these guys and many others. F* expectations.

    Most of us don't even know the true meaning of "success" anyways. Have fun Jason, Joshua, and Nathan. Don't allow the pressure or the demands (especially from anxious, overwrought fans) get to you or knock you off your stride.

    * I heard recently about a young blogger who created a blog entitled, F* I'm in my twenties! It was turned into a book, and the blogger is currently in talks for a possible television series.

    Jason could write a blog entitled, F* I'm seventeen without a solid 3-axel (close but no cigar) and no quad in sight, as of yet anyways!

    I recall that Patrick Chan was still perfecting his 3-axel at the age of 17 in the senior ranks, and that he did not even start training a quad until at least three years later. I know times have changed, especially after 2010 Olympics, Plush's ire re necessity of macho quad, and Chan's subsequent mastery of quad. But ya know what, try as many may, they will never develop the musicality, artistry and charisma of Jason Brown, or Dai Takahashi, or Jeremy Abbott. Dai was a diamond in the rough at age 17, and he was nowhere near possessing the artistry and presentation skills that Jason has and already possessed even at age 15. Jason is still young yet and he's not "done" yet.

    FYI:

    Jason Brown -- 17
    Nathan Chen -- 13
    Joshua Farris -- 17

  15. #35

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    Quote Originally Posted by aftershocks View Post
    Really? Despite even the fact you too evinced a "lack of faith in Jason."
    No, I didn't. I said that at the moment I couldn't give him the top spot. Read my post again, I'm quite convinced he'll be an amazing Senior. I just had to give top spot to Joshua because technically Joshua is further advanced.

  16. #36

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    Quote Originally Posted by aftershocks View Post
    ^^ Like I said "different eras, different rules, different expectations," but seriously what else must Jason do before it's really, really, really too late? Jason's musicality, artistry, and unique movement style rivals that of many men on the senior level. Yadda, yadda re 3-axel, and demands that Jason must have "2 in his FS asap so he can shift his attention to training a quad..." Gosh, you guys are such serious taskmasters. Do you have Kori Ade's number on speed dial? It won't be the "end of the world" if Jason doesn't medal at JGPF or JW this season (but he is likely to anyway).

    I'm going to sit back and enjoy each moment, each season, each wonderful performance from all these guys and many others. F* expectations.

    Most of us don't even know the true meaning of "success" anyways. Have fun Jason, Joshua, and Nathan. Don't allow the pressure or the demands (especially from anxious, overwrought fans) get to you or knock you off your stride.

    * I heard recently about a young blogger who created a blog entitled, F* I'm in my twenties! It was turned into a book, and the blogger is currently in talks for a possible television series.

    Jason could write a blog entitled, F* I'm seventeen without a solid 3-axel (close but no cigar) and no quad in sight, as of yet anyways!

    I recall that Patrick Chan was still perfecting his 3-axel at the age of 17 in the senior ranks, and that he did not even start training a quad until at least three years later. I know times have changed, especially after 2010 Olympics, Plush's ire re necessity of macho quad, and Chan's subsequent mastery of quad. But ya know what, try as many may, they will never develop the musicality, artistry and charisma of Jason Brown, or Dai Takahashi, or Jeremy Abbott. Dai was a diamond in the rough at age 17, and he was nowhere near possessing the artistry and presentation skills that Jason has and already possessed even at age 15. Jason is still young yet and he's not "done" yet.

    FYI:

    Jason Brown -- 17
    Nathan Chen -- 13
    Joshua Farris -- 17
    "You must spread some reputation around before giving it to aftershocks again."

    Just to clarify one thing - he HAS, in fact, tried a quad in training. I remember reading in an interview that some days when his triple toe is feeling especially good they'll strap on the harness and he'll have a go. Clearly he's not seriously training it yet but obviously he's not a total stranger to it either.

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by aftershocks View Post
    ^^ Like I said "different eras, different rules, different expectations," but seriously what else must Jason do before it's really, really, really too late? Jason's musicality, artistry, and unique movement style rivals that of many men on the senior level. Yadda, yadda re 3-axel, and demands that Jason must have "2 in his FS asap so he can shift his attention to training a quad..." Gosh, you guys are such serious taskmasters. Do you have Kori Ade's number on speed dial? It won't be the "end of the world" if Jason doesn't medal at JGPF or JW this season (but he is likely to anyway).

    I'm going to sit back and enjoy each moment, each season, each wonderful performance from all these guys and many others. F* expectations.

    Most of us don't even know the true meaning of "success" anyways. Have fun Jason, Joshua, and Nathan. Don't allow the pressure or the demands (especially from anxious, overwrought fans) get to you or knock you off your stride.

    * I heard recently about a young blogger who created a blog entitled, F* I'm in my twenties! It was turned into a book, and the blogger is currently in talks for a possible television series.

    Jason could write a blog entitled, F* I'm seventeen without a solid 3-axel (close but no cigar) and no quad in sight, as of yet anyways!

    I recall that Patrick Chan was still perfecting his 3-axel at the age of 17 in the senior ranks, and that he did not even start training a quad until at least three years later. I know times have changed, especially after 2010 Olympics, Plush's ire re necessity of macho quad, and Chan's subsequent mastery of quad. But ya know what, try as many may, they will never develop the musicality, artistry and charisma of Jason Brown, or Dai Takahashi, or Jeremy Abbott. Dai was a diamond in the rough at age 17, and he was nowhere near possessing the artistry and presentation skills that Jason has and already possessed even at age 15. Jason is still young yet and he's not "done" yet.

    FYI:

    Jason Brown -- 17
    Nathan Chen -- 13
    Joshua Farris -- 17
    Fair points. Anyways, my post was more in reference of, if Jason wants to have a realistic shot at making the Olympic team IN SOCHI - he has a lot of work to do in a short amount of time. But these quad obsessed cycles seem to come in waves, and maybe after Sochi things will calm down a bit, they won't be as big of a deal or key to being competitive on the senior ranks as a guy. People might get injured from pushing too hard to get all these ridiculous technical skills, CoP could change again, etc. Plus the scene should be drastically different post Sochi, as almost certainly Lysacek, Weir, Abbott, Joubert, Takahashi, Plushenko, Menshov, Oda, Verner, and Voronov will have retired by then, and it's possible Chan, Brezina, Kozuka, Rippon, Miner, Amodio, Dornbush, Mahbanoozadeh, etc could be finished after 2014 too (and possibly Fernandez though I hope not, or even Hanyu if he wins/medals in Sochi...again hopefully not though).

    Realistically, Jason and Joshua are probably aiming to make the 2018 Olympic team and maybe considering sticking around through 2022, and obviously 2018-2022 is when Chen will be looking to be at his best. So that's a long ways off. And 5 years is plenty of time for Jason to develop a solid 3a and quad(s), if he even ends up needing them at all based on what the field and technical standards are looking like post-Sochi and heading into the Pyeongchang cycle. So yes, there is really no reason for these boys to be freaking out and pushing themselves too hard now. Well, with the exception of Josh because he may have a slight chance to make the 2014 Olympic team if he continues to have success with his 4t, 3a combos, and continues to improve artistically (but again pushing too hard is never the answer, it would more be, if he happens to continue his ascent and is really a prime option for the Olympic team). But it's a crap shoot either way and there's around a dozen strong men in the US with comparable skill sets vying for what most likely will be 2 spots so the chances that someone like Joshua, who's still very young and developing into his body and as of this season is still competing on the junior level internationally with Sochi a year away, would get picked for Worlds this season and Olympics/Worlds in 2014, are slim. And further, the USFS is probably hesitant to heavily push for someone like him anyways recognizing many of the other guys in consideration will be gone after 2014, while Josh is probably a prime candidate to be a top US men for the quadrennial following that and as such his talent should be carefully nurtured rather than pushed too fast and run the risk of injury and burnout as a teenager and before the 2018 Olympics. The same goes for Jason if he has a consistent 3a and quad come 2014 Nationals.

    I think that both boys probably gave up trying to make the 2014 Olympic team though when they decided (whether it was really their decision or mostly due to the coaxing of the USFS) to stay on the JGP this season. Nathan won't even be old enough for the Olympics until 2018 and Worlds until 2015 at the earliest, so he's got all the time in the World to develop and improve, and he's already doing remarkably well. I should have started out with that in my former post, I was more talking about, if Jason wants to make it on the senior ranks between now and the 2014 Olympics/Worlds..., because that's a very different and much more daunting task than making it period, with an indefinite and much longer time frame.

    Anyhow, Chan at 17 despite his 3a issues and no quad won silver at senior Worlds, so I don't think he's a good comparison. But Jeremy Abbott is! Not that he's really fulfilled his potential at international events, but he's at least managed some good results and medals at GPs and GPFs, and I'm sure everyone recognizes and appreciates his talents. I don't think he even skated on the GP until he was like 20 or 21, and even then artistically he was nowhere near as strong as Jason and Joshua are already, and he was very inconsistent with his hard jumps like 3a and 4t, but a few years later, he was a wonderful artist even though he was in his mid 20s which many would consider an age after most men reach their prime. Different strokes for different folks.
    Last edited by pinky166; 10-07-2012 at 07:01 PM.

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by pinky166 View Post
    Anyhow, Chan at 17 despite his 3a issues and no quad won silver at senior Worlds, so I don't think he's a good comparison. But Jeremy Abbott is! Not that he's really fulfilled his potential at international events, but he's at least managed some good results and medals at GPs and GPFs, but I'm sure everyone recognizes and appreciates his talents. I don't think he even skated on the GP until he was like 20 or 21, and even then artistically he was nowhere near as strong as Jason and Joshua are already.
    Jeremy Abbott at 21, he was already fabulous to watch :
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Qq-KNVxYeU

  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by briancoogaert View Post
    Jeremy Abbott at 21, he was already fabulous to watch :
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Qq-KNVxYeU
    Yes, lots of raw potential, but he's come a LONG way artistically since then!

  20. #40

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    Quote Originally Posted by pinky166 View Post
    Anyhow, Chan at 17 despite his 3a issues and no quad won silver at senior Worlds, so I don't think he's a good comparison.
    Chan won worlds silver at 18, not 17. He was 9th place at 17.

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