Abbott should have never left Colorado.
^^ While that may be true, what's done is done. The one thing Jeremy does have going for him though is that even when his tanks, his PCS stay pretty high, meaning a Jeremy-bomb is likely to still score/place better than a bomb from virtually any of the other guys in contention. What it really comes down to is, is there someone else consistent enough that we can count on to score better than a Jeremy bomb. So who may this be, Ross, but he's likely to be on the team anyway, Max?, it would be his Worlds debut, and his PCS will definitely not hold him up should he struggle, so it might not be worth the risk, Josh?, it sounds like he wants to go to JW anyway, and while we haven't seen a real bomb from him in awhile, his last few competitions he's left a lot of points on the table, and it would also be his Worlds debut, and senior international debut, so that could be a risky move as well. Adam? He has the experience and doesn't usually bomb, but with his wonky 3a and lack of a quad (so far this season), his scores likely won't be that high even with a relatively clean skate. So I think it doesn't really matter who goes to Worlds, there's going to be a lot of risk either way, and getting 3 spots will be tough but possible with any reasonable team I tend to think. I will say that I think Ross should be on the team, who joins him and if he's the number 1 or number 2 guy going in is up in the air, but I think he's sort of the go-to American guy at this point.
I more hope we manage to get 3 spots because I'd like to see a young up-and-comer without much international experience (Josh, Max, Keegan, Jason, etc) or two make the team. We have so many good guys in the US that it's a shame getting 3 spots consistently has been a struggle, so I hope that can be changed in time for the Olympics.
Re your comments pinky: IMO, getting 3 spots for U.S. men has not so much been "a struggle," as it has been just a miscalculation by U.S. Fed in 2011, when the three spots were lost because Worlds judges low-balled then newbies Ross and Richard who both skated clean programs, and didn't rate Ryan that highly plus Ryan didn't skate his absolute best. That's it in a nutshell. Then in 2012 with the 2 U.S. guys we all felt and hoped could and would bring the 3 spots back, they didn't skate their best and did not seem to be at full strength. That's why I say whoever goes to Worlds this season need to pace themselves and be hungry and ready. Uselessly now wondering if Ross had gone to Worlds last season, might it have made any difference, since he had medaled at NHK and at 4CCs.
But blah, the past is the past ... these guys have to do it in the moment. Good luck to all!
Last edited by aftershocks; 12-24-2012 at 04:58 AM.
But yeah, it'd be really cool if there was a US, Japan, Russia Competition where each country sends their 3rd (or 4th depending on how many slots they had at worlds) - 12th (or 13th) place competitors to have a showdown in men and ladies. I believe that such a competition would also allow skaters to earn minimum points since it'd have three countries competing (or is it supposed to be 4?). Make the competition so that it's a week or two after Worlds and put in a rule that says those competing there cannot have competed at Sr. Worlds.
I hope Evan makes it back.
Question I have and am interested in hearing others opinions about, could be a factor in the battle for bronze and pewter.
I think it's safe to say Jeremy, and then Ross, will score above the rest of the field with clean skates. Richard might be able to beat Ross and will be rewarded if he skates well, that's safe enough to assume, but he's hot and cold so it's hard to tell what he will do, I can see him winning it all or being well off the podium.
What I'm more interested in is, what do you think the judges will do regarding scores among the following guys: Aaron, Messing, Mahbanoozadeh, Rippon, Farris
Assuming Aaron and Messing go for quads in the SP as they have been this season, and the rest do not, but all of them try for at least one quad in the FS (Max 2, the rest 1 based on what they've been trying in competition this season, although we have yet to see Rippon try for 4s yet this season, but he did last season)
I suppose I should put Razzano in this group, but I'm not, because to me he's really a step below all those guys even though he was 5th last year, and his quad seems to be MIA this season, and without it I expect he'll be lucky to make the top 10.
Anyways, if we go off international scoring, Max and Josh might beat out the others, but idk if we can expect that to happen, and if the USFS intends to inflate Adam's scores like last season after his recent international showings, and Armin hasn't quite blown up the international scene this season either so I wonder about his stock with the USFS right now too. Josh and Max got hammered on PCS last year, but then again neither skated very well and both have done quite well so far this season so it's hard to tell what the judges might do with them. Keegan usually does well at Nats and gets pretty generous PCS marks, but he's also wildly inconsistent and sometimes sloppy even when he hits the jumps so yeah.
My guess at ordering/scores, assuming they go clean:
Aaron - low 80s SP, low 160s FS
Farris - 80 ish SP, 155-160 FS
Mahbanoozadeh - 80 ish SP, 150-155 FS
Messing - low 80s SP, 145-150 FS
Rippon - 80 ish SP, 145-150 FS
But my rough predictions may seem way off to the point of being funny to others, which is why I ask for opinions
Pinky166 just a minor point: Adam was trying 4Lz last year. I know he didn't land it at Nationals in San Jose, but don't recall about earlier in the season.
Adam seemed to be more focused this season on 3A and not quads.
But if we're really going to analyze it, we should look at all the different places that the scores come from, because no one person gets to give a total score in the current system.
*What elements is the skater planning?
*Will the skater succeed in executing what they plan?
*Will the technical panel give them full credit what they execute or call underrotations/downgrades or lower levels? (or give credit for rotations or features they tried but didn't achieve -- surely no tech panel would give credit for content the skater didn't even attempt)
*Will the judging panel tend to be generous or stingy with that skater's GOEs?
*Will the judging panel tend to award high, average, or low PCS to each skater, relative to the rest of the field?
Only the last two relate to what "the judges" will do regarding scores. But what the skater actually executes and gets credit for determines the bulk of the technical score -- especially which jumps they rotate -- even assuming they all "go clean."
No doubt some of the skaters will have chosen to add new difficulty for Nationals, or to take out some difficulty that they haven't been executing successfully so that they can more likely go clean. But without knowing those plans, it's probably best to ask who has the highest planned base marks, who is likely to get credit for everything attempted, who is likely to get additional rewards in GOEs and/or PCS.
E.g., PCS in the 8s can outweigh a couple of triples vs. PCS in the 6s, but two quads will probably trump two popped jumps even with a significant PCS advantage.
Anyways as to what the guys plan, I'll do my research at their layouts and make a new post regarding my findings, but I think Max is the only one that plans two quads in his FS, and I think Max and Keegan will be the only two to go for quads in the SP (Armin has before but not with much success and didn't at Ice Challenge, and even Keegan did not try it at all his fall comps so could potentially opt out of it in the SP). Max also has both 3a in the 2nd half of his FS, which I don't think any of the other guys do. Josh does 3a-3t in his FS and I don't think any of the others do, but that doesn't matter as much b/c it doesn't really affect BV.
Max has the edge technically, in terms of the others, their planned content should look similar (no quad in SP, with the exception of maybe Keegan, but he doesn't do it in combination, one quad attempt not in combination in FS, two 3a attempts in FS, one in combination and one in the second half).
So basically my question is, assuming Armin, Adam, Josh, and Keegan go out and attempt and land all the same jumps (SP: 3a, 3f/3lz-3t, 3lz/3f and FS: 4t/4s, 3a x2, 3f/3lz x2, one of each of the remaining triples, a 3-3 of some sort in there, and 2a depending on 3 jump combo of choice) how will their scores stack up? Because I have really no idea.
Last edited by pinky166; 01-02-2013 at 04:26 PM.
Rippon skated two new exhibition programs in Germany & Italy last week and performed well - links are in this thread: http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/show...=1#post3782550
"Randy [Starkman (1960-April 16, 2012)] lived by the same motto as the rest of us. The Olympics isn’t every four years, it’s every single day. He just got it." --Canadian Olympic kayaker Adam van Koeverden
OK, I am a total lurker here on FSU and rarely post, but I'm going to throw in my 2 cents here....since I've been a huge skating fan for many years and intent observer of all our US men vs all the international guys. Folks, I just don't see our US guys getting us 3 spots at Worlds this year. Don't get me wrong, I would absolutely LOVE to be wrong. Unless Jeremy totally can rid himself of his "head" problems that haven't allowed him to be consistent from one big competition to the next, and especially to be able to do well at a Worlds or Olympics, it's not going to happen. I hope it does, I totally love his skating, but his history gives me no encouragement or high expectation.
Ross has done well this year and I'm hoping he can keep it up through Worlds, but alas, it hasn't happened yet and the int'l judges only "might" be kind to him if he goes clean with high technical content.
The rest of the men just haven't shown they can do it consistently when it counts and I can't trust that any of them, including Rippon whom I love, to get us 3 spots...meaning amazing performances at BOTH Nationals and Worlds. Against Hanyu, Chan, Dai, Mura, Fernandez....our US guys aren't cutting it this year. Like I said, nothing would make be happier than being wrong about this. But I'm being realistic.
1. Adam (int'l reputation & experience, best presentation)
2. Josh (peaking in juniors internationally and v. good presentation that keeps getting better)
3. Armin (good preso but can lack power, had good junior int'l career but he's getting removed from those years and his senior int'l results have been mediocre...)
4. Keegan (USFS always hoses him... he could be a real showman but he's packaged all wrong and doesn't seem to be progressing any longer... )
I see the US men in 4 groups:
Jeremy, Ross, Ricky and Adam are the top 4, they will be skating to lose a spot on the podium. Ross and Jeremy are most likely to take gold and are the only who could be talked about as locks for the podium. Ross is the toughest competitor, but Jeremy is the USFS darling and therefore the favorite even if he never has had the intense competitive fire/mental game needed to put his massive talent on an elite international podium. Also feel like Jeremy is pretty much past his athletic prime. Ricky is a headcase but the USFS loves him, and if he's clean he's in. Adam needs to show up landing at least the 3axel or he's out and could be looking at 5th or 6th place.
Josh and Armin could easily land on the podium with serious mistakes from any of the above. Josh is the all-around package and most likely to challenge, Armin is solid and steady but unspectacular, I don't think either of these guys could win though. Maybe Josh if he has the skates of his life and the four above all really miss.
Jason, Max, Stephen, Doug, Keegan and Brandon round out the top 12 with maybe outside shots at lower rungs of the podium. If Jason had a consistent axel and quad he'd easily be in the top group with his awesome presentation and programs but without either of the big jumps he's left languishing down in in the 6th-7th range. Stephen could surprise with a clean performance but I feel like his star has fallen permanently from when he looked like he might be the next big thing c. 2007-08. Max is a jumper but needs to prove consistency and aspects of his presentation to challenge for the top spots. Doug is a lovely skater with good jumping but he needs to skate clean and get better programs with more interesting and challenging choreography. Keegan needs to prove consistency too, and really needs better programs and packaging - I can't put my finger on why it's not working for him because his programs always have a well thought-out theme and are interesting, but for some reason it's just not working for him. Brandon is the wild card jumper with the potential for another 2009 or a total meltdown.
All good observations. Now I will make one of my own.
The USFSA will pick whomever earns it, just like they did back in 2011 when they left Jeremy Abbott off the team (not to mention Adam Rippon) and instead sent two unproven youngsters and a showman with quads galore!
Despite the fact that Jeremy Abbott is my favorite, I would not say he is a lock for the team, no way. He is not a Michelle Kwan, or even an Evan Lysacek. He still has no World or Olympic medals to his name, nor do any of the others competing at Nationals this year.
Therefore, it honestly is anybody's game, they ALL have a shot at it, young, old, junior, senior, it doesn't matter. The only thing that matters is that they bring their *A* game.
And on that score, I wouldn't be surprised to see a quadster come through and finally nail all his quads. Remember, the USFSA has to think of next year, the Olympics, they need at least one guy that can go head to head with all the other quadsters in the world. Actually it kinda reminds me of 2002, when Sarah Hughes made the team based on her phenomenal technical ability combined with her lovely artistry. Jmho.
ps: Josh Farris reminds me of Sarah...
I see Max Aaron being in the top 4 or 5, not Adam Rippon. Max has the most consistent quad of all our men plus the triple axle. IMO Max is a legitimate contender & is working on improving his presentation.
Armin got pretty generous marks in the SP at Nats last year, but not so much in the FS, and the year before he also skated a beautiful FS but was scored pretty modestly again. His jumps have improved under Krall, especially the 3a which is now consistent, but they generally don't pick up much GOE either, and his spins while nice aren't quite on-par with Adam. PCS internationally are a bit below Rippon, but Armin's stock with USFS may be a bit higher than Adam's right now so it's hard to tell what the judges will do with his PCS. He's been solid this fall, but injuries and silly mistakes seem to have held him back a bit, and the quad is not as consistent now as it was looking over the summer.
Josh, Keegan, and Max are really the question marks for me - Keegan and Max because they have such limited international exposure, and Josh because he's still competing in juniors internationally and USFS seems to be holding off on promoting him until the next quadrennial. With a 4th or 5th place finish, Josh would likely just get sent to JW anyways, the only thing I can think of is that the USFS must know the international judges rate Josh highly judging from his marks at ISU events, and Josh is also a strong jumper AND spinner which can't be said of the other guys in his tier, his 3a is quite solid, and his 4t is coming along, landing a beauty at JGP Lake Placid and falling on a fully rotated attempt at the JGPF (and that was on benadryl too!). His consistency in general is also pretty good, he didn't have a great FS at his last two international events this fall, but it's worth noting that he was able to successfully land two 3a in both of those programs, and score over 210 total points at both those events (and those are junior programs, in seniors that's more like 215 points). So the one thing I wonder is if the USFS might not back him thinking he'd be a good person to send to Sochi should the US men get 3 spots for the team, especially with the status of the Johnny and Evan comebacks being what they are and the continued consistency issues of Abbott and Dornbush.
As for Max and Keegan, it's hard to tell what the judges will do. Max's 4s is really quite consistent, which is a huge advantage in this field as all the other guys with quads in their arsenals are still at a hit-or-miss (or worse) stage at this point. His 3a is also consistent, and his jumps can get decent GOE. Spins are not great and his very short legs don't make for great lines, presentation in general needs work, but at his senior Bs his PCS were still competitive and comparable to the likes of Rippon, Mahbanoozadeh, Farris, even Dornbush. As for Keegan, he has some great spins but GOE on jumps is a big concern because while his jumps are massive, they are often messy, resulting too frequently in very low FS scores despite executing fairly ambitious content. His 4t isn't all that consistent and his 3a, while explosive and usually landed, is not always a big point getter for him. PCS similarly needs work, although like Max, at senior Bs they have been perfectly adequate, his performance ability and energy seeming to make up for some of his obvious lack of polish. They are both young too, not as young as Josh and have aged out of juniors, so USFS I could see wanting to hold off until 2018 for these two as well, but at the same time, with Max in particular, if they are looking for someone who has the technical goods to keep up with the Japanese, Fernandez, and Chan, then Max is the best candidate, and with a 4CC and/or Worlds berth this season could set himself up nicely to be a solid 2nd or 3rd member of the Olympic team next year.
Hard to tell what will happen, but I wouldn't be surprised if USFS's love fest with Rippon has ended and if his scores and placement will be much less generous at Nationals this year than in the past. At this point I really think someone like Josh, Max, or even Keegan when he's on, are stronger skaters than Rippon, who just doesn't have the strongest jumps or basics despite being a lovely spinner with a nice ethereal quality to his skating. Armin might have better luck if he can get his 4t more consistent, his issue is more that he currently doesn't stand out in any one area - quality of jumps, consistency, spins, presentation, jump difficulty, even though he is quite solid across all.
Pretty fair assessments all. We'll shortly find out.
Rippon doesn't have the momentum that others have built up with their most recent stellar competitions (Miner's bronze at NHK Trophy and Aaron's big Sectionals win, to name just two examples), and so it's fair to say he appears to have underdog status heading into Nationals. However, I would like point out that last year was the first time Rippon performed a clean SP as a senior at Nationals (on his 4th try) and he delivered under pressure while skating 2nd in the start order. I believe he deserved his scores/placement in San Jose based on how he skated in both programs, relative to the rest of the field, and earned the silver medal fairly.
Here's the British Eurosport broadcast of Rippon's 12/30/12 Oberstdorf gala performance to "After Tonight" by Justin Nozuka that he debuted at the Skating & Gymnastics show in Jamestown, NY last month: http://youtube.com/watch?v=pMdsekiWEk4
BTW, for the quad-obsessed , I'm compiling this season's quad stats for the U.S. men and will post them later.
Last edited by Sylvia; 01-04-2013 at 04:55 AM.
"Randy [Starkman (1960-April 16, 2012)] lived by the same motto as the rest of us. The Olympics isn’t every four years, it’s every single day. He just got it." --Canadian Olympic kayaker Adam van Koeverden
IMO, the realistic fight for spots on the World team we will only be among Abbott, Dornbush, and Miner based on - 1) scores this season, 2) past experience and 3) credibility w/ judging panels at big international competitions.
Aaron is probably the 1st long shot at this triumvirate based on growing consistency, improving PCS, big scores and just by virtue of being THE US man with best quads. What holds him back right now is his lack of any major international experience. If the US had 3 spots for Worlds, he would have a much better shot due to the fact he could go theoretically as the no. 3 US man and not be responsible for finishing high up to gain 3 spots. As it is w/ 2 men, the USFSA undoubtedly wants the any 2 of the triumvirate at '13 Worlds based on reputation.
Messing is probably the 2nd long shot. I think the USFSA will note that Messing rocked his Senior B events this season and really look for opportunities to promote him should he continue upward.
Farris is probably not a shot ... this year. He will be sent to Junior Worlds unless he were to win Nationals IMO or finish 2nd by rocking the LP or something, really standing out. I don't think that will happen. I do think he will do well enough to put a smile on many people's faces and lift spirits, but just not enough to be put on a Senior Worlds team w/ only 2 spots and so many other contenders.
Mahbanoozadeh is even further back. Granted, he is capable of putting himself in the mix. He did quite well at '12 nationals after an abysmal GP series in the Fall of '11. But I wonder how much longer the USFSA and judges will give him any benefit of the doubt. After showing promise early this season, he kind of tanked (again). Also, I think he put attending Dartmouth on hold to pursue skating. There has to be a question in the minds of the skating community how much longer he will be around and how much to invest in him.
I will say if Rippon pulls it back together by Nationals, he might be considered. Might. But his reputation in big international competitions is really sliding. Look at his marks on the GP series this season. Dornbush w/ graver mistakes was easily ahead of him at NHK. At best, he is around Messing or Farris just based on past glories. It is sad because watching him under Rafael Arutunian, his skating is 'bigger'. It's just unfortunate that the judges seem to be giving up on him.
Brown is retooling himself nicely and looks to have at least a 3x. If he skates well, he could be in the final group of senior men at nationals, but would only be considered as a top contender for Jr. Worlds. I think if he puts it together at Nationals, he could be placed in front of a faltering Rippon or Mahbanoozadeh.
Last edited by olympic; 01-04-2013 at 04:25 PM.