I think Hanyu has the right idea with doing footwork into the quad and the 3-3 later on. I think the quad in combo is too much pressure maybe, although I don't know if the footwork is even harder to accomplish for some?
I took a glance at the ISU best list for this season. The US men aren't in such bad shape as I thought.
1. 262.35 Patrick CHAN CAN
2. 261.03 Yuzuru HANYU JPN
3. 253.94 Javier FERNANDEZ ESP
4. 251.51 Daisuke TAKAHASHI JPN
5. 251.44 Takahiko KOZUKA JPN
6. 238.34 Nobunari ODA JPN
7. 236.92 Tatsuki MACHIDA JPN
8. 235.37 Ross MINER USA
9. 230.68 Takahito MURA JPN
10. 227.63 Jeremy ABBOTT USA
When you only include the top 3 JPN men (which will be the case at Worlds), Ross and Jeremy are 6th and 7th respectively. That totals 13 pts. and 3 spots if things just keep going like this. Of course, Brezina and Amodio have really underperformed thus far and we can't rule them out but the US isn't doing too badly (for some reason, in my mind, it was worse)
Last edited by olympic; 11-26-2012 at 06:02 PM.
Whoa, olympic! can you please reformat your post?
FWIW, here are the top 3 FS international scores among the U.S. men so far this season:
168.80 Dornbush (Finlandia) 92.12 TES
161.96 Miner (NHK Trophy) 86.74 TES
156.58 Aaron (Salt Lake Sr B) 83.58 TES
Next, these are the 9 men who've scored 140+ in a FS internationally, ranked by their TES score:
Dornbush (NHK Trophy) 78.29 TES
Mahbanoozadeh (Salt Lake Sr B) 76.43
Carriere (Nebelhorn) 75.93
Farris (JGP Lake Placid) 75.49
Rippon (NHK Trophy) 75.22
Messing (Nebelhorn) 74.52
Miner (Skate Canada) 73.91
Dornbush (Rostelecom Cup) 73.89
Messing (Cup of Nice) 71.33
Aaron (Cup of Nice) 71.01
Miner (Salt Lake Sr B) 69.09
Abbott (TEB) 63.75
Top Domestic FS scores:
157.70 [should be 158.21] Aaron 89.58 TES [should be 90.09] (Midwestern Sectionals)
151.42 Dornbush 76.16 TES (Glacier Falls)
151.39 Alexander Johnson 75.23 TES (Midwestern Sectionals)
Also, Jason Brown (TES unknown) and Grant Hochstein (74.25 TES) have scored over 140 in club competition exhibition free skates (eta: Brown also scored 149.09 in his Regionals FS exhibition in October, TES unknown).
Maybe I'll get around to breaking down short program scores similarly later...
Last edited by Sylvia; 11-26-2012 at 08:27 PM.
"Randy [Starkman (1960-April 16, 2012)] lived by the same motto as the rest of us. The Olympics isn’t every four years, it’s every single day. He just got it." --Canadian Olympic kayaker Adam van Koeverden
see above. Sorry!
I doubt the World team will be Miner and Dornbush, since there are only two spots. I don't care how many problems Jeremy has encountered this season and in the past, he is the reigning U.S. National Champion for a reason. On his best day, Jeremy Abbott should blow away Kozuka, Fernandez, Amodio, Brezina, Machida, Mura, et al, with his great technique and superlative artistry, and he would certainly challenge Chan, Dai, and the precociously talented but immature Hanyu.
Re quads: Jeremy landed a gorgeous quad at 2012 Nationals, so he is capable of landing them. I'm not sure why he changed the entrance on his quad this season after he was finally successful last season with a different entry.
Jeremy Abbott is 27 (he'll be 28 next June), and he is still in good shape (despite this season's back problems), and he is at his peak artistically. I don't see where you get the idea that Jeremy is "a shadow of his former self." Yes, Jeremy lacks consistency under competition pressure (and this season under physical-related pressures), but what he has achieved as an artist on the ice ultimately can not be measured in podium placements and CoP scores.
As they have in the past, USFS will probably base their World team selections on who goes 1, 2 in January. Going into Nationals, Jeremy is the defending U.S. Champion, and the highest placing U.S. man at 2012 Worlds (and he has previously placed as high as 5th at Worlds), plus his PCS scores are highly competitive and if he hits his programs he will challenge the top men internationally. Lots of variables are involved re Jeremy achieving at least another top five position at Worlds, but there would be even more variables with probably lesser overall payoff if the proven veteran and the best male skater in the U.S., Jeremy Abbott, does not make the World team.
Last edited by aftershocks; 11-26-2012 at 10:46 PM.
Well, you're right about Jeremy, it just seems unfortunate to the other guys that Jeremy could feasibly have lots of problems at Nationals, be sent over other guys skating better based on reputation scoring, be sent to Worlds, and then tank there. If he skates really well at Nationals I have no issue with him being sent, as obviously all you mentioned is true, but if it's an Alissa like situation comparable to the ladies event last season, I hope he does not get held up and someone more deserving (and consistent) misses out on a Worlds berth because of it. As for Jeremy being at his artistic peak, I'm not sure about that, he certainly isn't way past it, but I think artistically, and probably technically too, his peak was more 2009-2011 roughly. But maybe that's just me. Also, Jeremy is definitely hands-down, head and shoulders better than Contesti and KVDP ever were, but that doesn't mean his position now isn't similar to that of those two the past few seasons. Skating is tough on the body...
^^ Sure skating is def tough on the body.
Well, they didn't do Jeremy any favors at 2011 Nationals, when they clearly could have. He had performed very well on the GP that season, but they gave him no favors for his mis-steps in his Nationals fp. If anything, Ryan B was favored to win, and he did despite several jump-landing problems in his fp. I'm glad for Ryan that he won, but I do think Jeremy should have edged Ryan in the sp. Jeremy missed making the World team by .19 in 2011, and I don't think it was very wise that they left Jeremy off the team that year.
In any case, USFS is probably not going to "hold up" any one of the guys this January. I just hope they are going to be fairly objective and realistic going in, but this is figure skating. I think in many ways Jeremy is considered the favorite as the defending National champion (and he's clearly a skater who can obtain high PCS scores to match his technical abilities -- he just needs to be in shape mentally and physically to land his jumps under pressure), and if he wins Nationals, he absolutely must also be fully prepared to challenge at Worlds. IMO, Jeremy's peak artistically is now and forever.
Ross has certainly raised his stock with his second consecutive NHK Trophy bronze (particularly in a deep field this year), and especially with successfully landing his quad in the fp. I hope Ross' success at NHK will fuel him to a great showing at Nationals. Of course, Dornbush, Farris, Rippon, Messing, Aaron, Mahbahnoozadeh, Razzano, Carriere and others will also be in the mix. If Johnny is healed in time and feeling more fit, he might also do well, but at this point I doubt he would make the team.
Last edited by aftershocks; 11-26-2012 at 10:51 PM.
Sarah and Drew's latest Inside Edge blog for IceNetwork is a Sectional champions roundup - here's an excerpt:
There are also quotes from Keegan Messing, Stephen Carriere, and the 2012 U.S. junior silver medalist Tim Dolensky (he skated with a stress fracture in his left ankle at Easterns and did not qualify for Nationals).[Max] Aaron, who is coached by Tom Zakrajsek, will be working with Pasquale Camerlengo after Thanksgiving, enhancing his components and working on transitions.
"The whole point is to stay with the other guys in components: Jeremy [Abbott], Adam [Rippon], Ross [Miner], Ricky [Dornbush]," Aaron said. "I don't like playing the catch-up game. I know I have the technical mark; if I can stay with them in components, and get close to 100 points in the technical mark, I know I will be with those men. I don't necessarily want to be known for just jumping."
[2nd place Mids finisher, Alexander] Johnson, who trains with Tom Dickson, has been taking several dance classes every week and really working on his skating skills.
"It has allowed my jumping and spinning to improve, as well as the second mark," he said. "If you have a strong basic skating background, it allows more freedom of movement and choreography. A lot of times, people think the component is what you do with your face or your arms, but it's so much more. It's how you move your body; it's the ability to gain flow from one crossover and glide effortlessly across the entire rink."
About footwork into the solo quad, I guess doing it or not doesn't matter much, considering that those who don't do it don't get dinged for it even if it should be a requirement (see Kozuka at SA for example).
A Miner + Dornbush world team would also work, but IMO Dornbush really hasn't skated / placed solidly at the bigger comps since 2011 Nationals to warrant more support. If I were the US Fed I would be nervous to back him up again after last year's 4CCs fiasco, unless he really brought it at Nationals. On the flip side, despite bombing last Nationals, Farris actually skated / placed very well in each of his outings this season and past.
All 3 have reliable 3axels (which unfortauntely can't be said for Abbott), so I guess it comes down to who has the most reliable quad. I also feel nervous for Dornbush for completely botching his 3/3 combo at his GP this season AFTER landing the quad and 3axel.
Dornbush may need to work on his posture. I think his jump suffers from the posture. It's very hard for him to check the landing when his head is so far forward before the take off. Until then, his jumps will probably be about 50/50 success rate.
Unfortunately, anyone who goes to Worlds for the first time will be unlikely to get the marks they deserve no matter how well they perform (and it isn't easy to perform well under pressure your first time at Worlds). Johnny, Ross, and Richard did perform well in their Worlds debuts but were not given the marks. An exception: Evan didn't perform all that well in 2005 but was given the marks and the bronze, so go figure!
I hope all the skaters in all disciplines have great skates at Nationals, and Worlds too!
I disagree that Jeremy's 3-axel is not reliable. He has good technique on it -- when he misses which is not often, it must be due to nerves or lack of focus, or the yips. So, it's not like he has technical problems with his 3-axel, in the way that Adam does.
Last edited by aftershocks; 11-27-2012 at 06:07 AM.
Max Aaron has a consistent 3a and quad (and a 4s which is worth more at that), which is why I think he's a contender. Ross and Joshua have consistent 3a and have both shown they are capable of landing a clean rotated quad with +GOE at an international competition, but each has only done that once, and haven't been attempting quads for that long anyways. Jeremy's 3a isn't quite as consistent as these two and his quad rate isn't great either, but he has the highest PCS of the bunch which helps boost his status. As for Dornbush, he actually has a decent success rate with the 4t, but considering his 3a is not super consistent (it used to be, but after last season appears to still be hit and miss) AND he's prone to botching his SP combo, his consistency with the quad (compared to the others) gives him less of an edge than it might appear on paper. So really, it's a gamble any way you slice it, and even more so when you move on to include other skaters not in this group. 3 spots in this deep of a field is going to be hard to garner is just sort of the reality. If Evan was back and in his 2010 form, or Jeremy was consistent, I'd feel better, but alas..
^^ Yes, ITA in general. Only thing is that Max has yet to be consistent at senior Nationals with his jumps, which are his strongest weapons. And the other thing is that in general skaters who appear at Worlds for the first time in front of senior International judges do not tend to be given the marks they deserve when they skate clean. For those who do score well as first timers and medal, a la Gachinski and Lysacek, it is probably a combination of genuine talent, and huge doses of politics and luck.
I would love to be proven wrong, but I have a feeling this is another year where Abbott would be left in the dust at Nationals. His issue with the 3axel might not be technical, but he is just too inconsistent with it, and he inclines to pop all the time which is deadly. And this season even his easier triples are not always there. Abbott is a great skater, but he hasn't gone to that stage where he gets huge scores despite multiple errors. I am not that convinced that a mediocre skate from him can still score more than a solid skate from a Miner, Dornbush or Farris.
Internationally, Abbott (justifiably IMO) still commands PCS for mediocre skates that other US skaters aren't reaching, even with solid skates. I don't think that will change at worlds.I am not that convinced that a mediocre skate from him can still score more than a solid skate from a Miner, Dornbush or Farris.
However, as we saw in 2011, the US judges have no problem throwing out unrealistic PCS for skaters who stand up on a few more jumps, so I wouldn't be surprised if he's off the world team again this year either. I'm figuring it will be Miner and Dornbush.
Abbott's usually good for at least one or two truly great performances a season, so hopefully Nationals and then Worlds is it.
It's no good for him to have only one truly great performance per season. In 2009 it was GPF and he was subpar at Nationals and Worlds. In 2010 it was Nationals and he was subpar at Olympics and Worlds. In 2011 it was 4CCs and it meant he didn't make the world team. In 2012 it was Nationals again and he was again subpar at Worlds.