U.S. Men 2012-13 news, updates & general discussion

[aftershocks]

LOL, the senior international judges would kill Aaron in PCS. His PCS probably wouldn't even advance him into the LP to compete at Worlds.

^^ ITA.

Aaron has a lot of work to do before he can make a breakthrough at Nats to even be selected for senior GPF (forget about Worlds).

Farris is incredibly talented but I'm sure his sights are set on honing his skills, doing well at Nationals and making a statement at Junior Worlds to set himself up for a good senior GP showing next season. Realistically, Olympics 2018 is probably Farris' ultimate goal.

I hope Jeremy is able to heal up, lose weight, and be on top of his game come Nationals. Sure looks doubtful at the moment, though. I hope he's well enough to get some quad practice in.

I do think Ross and Jeremy would give the highest placement potential at Worlds, but, still getting the 3 spots back is unlikely.

Fair enough, but it's not out of the question. Performing to their best, anything can happen with Worlds placements for Ross and Jeremy. Surely at their best, they could manage to place 4th or 5th (Jeremy) and anywhere from 6th to 8th (Ross), and both have the potential to place higher with landing quads successfully and should other skaters with higher-rep and over-rated PCS make mistakes.

[toddlj]

LOL, the senior international judges would kill Aaron in PCS. His PCS probably wouldn't even advance him into the LP to compete at Worlds.

I don't necessarily agree. When Mroz was sent to worlds, the judges seemed surprisingly willing to reward him for jumps despite all of his other shortcomings.

[Vagabond]

LOL, the senior international judges would kill Aaron in PCS. His PCS probably wouldn't even advance him into the LP to compete at Worlds.

At this season's Cup of Nice, Max Aaron scored 75.95 in the SP, with PCS of 35.83, and that was with a fall, which should have had some negative effect on his second mark. At Worlds last season, the twenty-fourth-placed man in the SP had a score of 57.22, and a score of 75.95 would have earned ninth place. You can say what you will about how Senior "B" events have softer judging than ISU Championships, but I think that if he does go to Worlds this season, he'll make the Free Skate.

[aftershocks]

Of course anything can happen, and there's really no telling what fs judges will do. I think it's generally true that they tend to reward successful jumping (technical abilities) over presentation skills which are more subjective. IOW, if a skater has great jumping ability and is fairly consistent, their PCS tends to be higher whether or not they are any great shakes (or "great skates" ) artistically.

In any case, it seems to me that most fs judges feel absolutely "entitled" to do whatever they so please within the bounds of IJS system and political trends channeled from ISU PTB, and the respective feds PTB.

In regard to Max Aaron, he has potential to move up and do well at Nats and perhaps eventually have success at major senior international events. Right now, I think he's still working out the kinks, especially from what I see in these links. Now, if anyone has more recent and better links to better performances from Max, I'd love to catch a glimpse of why he's so highly regarded by some as a top contender to make the World team.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPYM62pUwoA Aaron sp GF

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jpTHpmS_vA Aaron fp GF

[Sylvia]

If anyone has an IceNetwork subscription, I recommend watching Max Aaron's and Alex Johnson's performances at Midwestern Sectionals earlier this month. Their FS protocols: http://www.usfigureskating.org/leade...8/SEGM029.html

[mag]

Max Aaron is the current quad master among the US men. He wasn't on the GP this season because he placed 8th at '12 Nationals. However, he has done extremely well in "B" competitions this autumn. He won SLC international with a 231.27 score beating both Armin & Ross. He placed 2nd at Cup of Nice with a 219.62.
I don't see Farris as being ready to jump to the podium at Nationals as yet. Better for him to go to Jr. Worlds & win & have a shot at a spot on the GP next year. My gut is telling me it will be Miner & Abbott going to Worlds this year. Too soon to predict for the Olympic team altho I do think that Ross will make it. He keeps improving step by step, competition by competition.

One more time, just for fun, placements at Nationals do not affect GP assignments except SA host pick. GP spots are based on international scores from the previous season.

[Vagabond]

Of course anything can happen, and there's really no telling what fs judges will do. I think it's generally true that they tend to reward successful jumping (technical abilities) over presentation skills which are more subjective. IOW, if a skater has great jumping ability and is fairly consistent, their PCS tends to be higher whether or not they are any great shakes (or "great skates" ) artistically.

In any case, it seems to me that most fs judges feel absolutely "entitled" to do whatever they so please within the bounds of IJS system and political trends channeled from ISU PTB, and the respective feds PTB.

In regard to Max Aaron, he has potential to move up and do well at Nats and perhaps eventually have success at major senior international events. Right now, I think he's still working out the kinks, especially from what I see in these links. Now, if anyone has more recent and better links to better performances from Max, I'd love to catch a glimpse of why he's so highly regarded by some as a top contender to make the World team.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPYM62pUwoA Aaron sp GF

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jpTHpmS_vA Aaron fp GF

Watch those videos again. He skates with tremendous speed and power, which aren't everything but can translate into high marks for Skating Skills and, since judges consider the Skating Skills mark before the other Program Components, higher overall PCS than one might expect, at least when the skater lands his jumps.

These videos (apparently taken or at least posted by our very own UMBS Go Blue) were shot from a fixed, elevated vantage point that makes it easier to see how fast Aaron skates. That's something you can't always tell from a broadcast feed, which uses a variety of vantage points, mostly at or close to rink level.

[aftershocks]

^^ Well, of course Max Aaron is a talented skater with some great assets including jumps, speed, and ice coverage. He needs to develop better artistry, musical interpretation, and consistency. Maybe he should switch coaches (as did Joshua) in order to have any chance of greatly improving in the latter categories.

Right now I don't get IceNetwork, so I can't check out Aaron's most recent performances. As far as the posted GF vids, Aaron was inconsistent on his jumps and to me did not show much improvement artistically, albeit he was at an early season comp. I like his music and costume. Perhaps he will have a better Nationals in January 2013 than he did in 2012.

[judiz]

Nobody has mentioned Brandon Mroz, not a fan of his but wondering if he is still skating?

[aftershocks]

AFAIK, Brandon is still skating this season.

[Vagabond]

IINM, Brandon Mroz finished third at Midwestern Sectionals with a Total Score of 200.32.

[Sylvia]

If anyone has an IceNetwork subscription, I recommend watching Max Aaron's and Alex Johnson's performances at Midwestern Sectionals earlier this month. Their FS protocols: http://www.usfigureskating.org/leade...8/SEGM029.html

I was looking at this protocol again and realized that Aaron didn't receive the 10% bonus for his 3Lo at the end of his Mids FS. His jumps were 4S+3T (16.35 points with the added + GOE), 2S, then 6 jumping passes in the second half: 3A+2T, 3Lz, 3A, 3Lz+1Lo+3S, 3F(e), 3Lo (5.10 Base Value should have been 5.61, which would have bumped his Total BV over 80 and TES score over 90). Alex Johnson's FS protocol is also impressive, numbers-wise (Brandon Mroz and William Brewster are the other 2 qualifiers from Mids to Nationals).

[pinky166]

LOL, the senior international judges would kill Aaron in PCS. His PCS probably wouldn't even advance him into the LP to compete at Worlds.

His PCS were quite good at his senior Bs. I know people think that Max and Keegan especially have a lot of work to do PCS wise, but looking at international scores, there PCS are pretty strong, and with the exception of Jeremy, most of our current guys are getting comparable PCS internationally (among Dornbush, Miner, Rippon, Farris, etc). I know their skating maybe looks messy or not particularly artistic, but speed and power can often translate to strong PCS even if said skater lacks refinement (case in point - Gracie Gold).

Anyways it sounds like Farris gave up on really pushing to make the Sochi Olympic team when he stayed junior this season (be it his own choice or someone else's), of course, if there are 3 spots on the team and Evan and Johnny are likely out of the picture, that could change. He said he wanted to go to JW again this year though and hopes to win. Maybe he is just being realistic and doesn't want to get his hopes up, but it at least seems like he's not really expecting to get to senior Worlds this season, though I'd doubt he'd turn down the opportunity if offered though. I would be surprised if he's top 2 anyways, but I do think maybe 3rd-5th is possible, meaning he could get 4CC and JW, which I really think would be best for him this season. If the Sochi team has 2 spots, he likely won't make that team and will focus on 2018, but if we do get 3 spots, and he does well at JGPF, Nats, and 4CC and/or JW, then that would set him up nicely and he could have a legitimate shot.

I'm interested to see how the JGPF goes first. Josh seems more consistent this season but he admitted to struggling with nerves at the JGP in Slovenia, where unlike Lake Placid there was a deep field, most notably Han Yan but also Boyang Jin who has a quad and Keiji Tanaka who has potential to be really good if he ever puts it together. Regardless, he held it together, won, put out a clean SP and a respectable FS, but the free was not as good as it could have been, he's definitely capable of a lot better. He's the 1st qualifier in the JGPF, but Kovtun earned a higher score at one event, has 3a and 4t, and will be skating at home. If Kovtun skates well at the final, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get huge scores like 80 for SP and 150-160 for FS. If all the guys were to skate their best, Josh would probably win, but at the last two JGPFs he had some problems, much like he's had at Nats since becoming a senior. These upcoming competitions should give us a better idea of how strong and reliable a competitor he has or hasn't become and then along with everyone else we should get a better idea of what's likely to go down between now and Sochi.

The way I see it at this point, the "contenders" for the World/Olympic team can be divided as follows, 3 groups with 2 subgroups in each. Just my opinion, feel free to comment and voice yours:

Likely:
Abbott
Miner
--------------------------------------
Lysacek (if returns and on-form)
Dornbush

Possibly:
Aaron
Farris
-------------------
Mahbanoozadeh
Rippon
Messing

Unlikely, but possible:
Weir (if actually goes through with comeback)
Brown (provided he's having success with 3a in competition)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Mroz (just because he can do a lot of quads)
Razzano
Carriere
Johnson

[aftershocks]

Re Adam: I thought he looked more loose and relaxed in his fp at NHK than he did at CoR, plus he landed both 3-axels with what seemed like a slight two-footing on the first one and landing a bit forward on the second, but still he looked more confident going into them and he made the revolutions. I also like his change of costume for the fp at NHK. He brought a bit of sparkle back on his top, and the black gave him a nice profile on the ice. He seemed much more comfortable with the program, and I thought he deserved higher PCS scores.

If Adam continues to improve and is strong at Nationals, it will be so interesting to see what happens. I think Adam has beautiful artistry but he needs a consistent 3-axel plus the quad has also become essential. I don't know if Adam has been working as much on training his quad for this season, as he has been trying to master proper technique on his 3-axel. It's too bad that the judges seem to ignore superb PCS quality if they feel a skater is not as consistent technically.

[apatinar]

I really hope that the world team is Miner and Farris. I am really tired of seeing Abbott and Alissa on TV every week making different excuses for why they didn't skate well. I just hope this nightmare era of them being at the top of US skating will end soon so that we can have some skating stars who can compete well..

[pinky166]

I'm still hoping Dornbush can bounce back at Nats, I prefer him to Miner but Miner is definitely a lot more consistent at this point. As for Farris I want to see how he does at the JGPF next week first. If he can pull a Dornbush and win in a dominant fashion, that could help him going into Nats, especially because like the year Dornbush won, there are no senior men in the GPF. But if he doesn't win or even medal, or wins but only because it's a splatfest, then maybe JW is the best thing for him this season. Time will tell. Though I will say he rebounded really well at JW after not skating well at Nats last season, so a lackluster JGPF could lead to a similar result come Nats in January (and honestly, regardless of Worlds, I'd like to see him skate well at Nationals just to see where he ends up when he isn't bombing). Of course it would be nice if he could skate well at both comps, but I feel like there isn't much pressure on him going into JGPF, so his skating there may speak to his relative consistency.

I agree about Abbott though, I think his time has past. Sure, Contesti and KVDP were able to pull out the occasional good competition (or usually it was just one program) in their final years, but mostly it was a lot of bombing and disappointing scores, we are seeing that from Verner and Joubert this season, Johnny during his brief comeback, and now Jeremy. He's so much better than what he's been putting out, but between being 28 and his natural inconsistency, and everyone pushing for quads, it's just, he seems like a shadow of his former self. He still scores well when he hits, but unfortunately that isn't very frequently these days.

What do people think about a Miner and Dornbush World team?

[Wyliefan]

I really hope that the world team is Miner and Farris. I am really tired of seeing Abbott and Alissa on TV every week making different excuses for why they didn't skate well. I just hope this nightmare era of them being at the top of US skating will end soon so that we can have some skating stars who can compete well..

Alissa? Don't look now, but she hasn't skated all season.

[icellist]

I'm fine with a combination for the Worlds team of...

Jeremy Abbott
Ross Miner
Richard Dornbush
Joshua Farris

Who knows what the golden duo for 3 spots is...

[gkelly]

Well, the three spots will depend not only on how well the US guys skate but also on what the other guys do. There are well over 10 skaters who could end up in the top 10.

[pinky166]

Interesting how Armin is all but out of these conversations for Worlds/Olympics even though he was 4th last year and has had more success with his quad than some of the other guys, also, his 3a finally seems to be consistent now. His pesky little injuries this fall have taken a toll on his skating, I feel like. If he's fully healthy by Nats, he could be in the mix too I think.

Also with so many guys messing up the SP this season, I wonder if btwn now and Sochi things will change and more men will take the quad out of the SP and go for a clean SP. I doubt we'll see a lot of men reverting to quadless FS like was common in 2010, I bet they will continue to go for 1, 2, or even 3 quads there along with 1 or 2 3as, but idk, seems like a clean SP with no quad can usually score better than a flawed one with a quad.