2012/2013 Junior Grand Prix Final

[oleada]

After Austria, it looks like we have our first two qualifiers.

1 Elena RADIONOVA RUS 15 X 15 1 177.79 1 116.64 116.64 61.15 27

(the rest of the ladies list is not yet updated)

and in dance,

1 Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON FRA 15 15 S S S 30 1 273.21 2 161.77 82.89 111.44 29
2 Alexandra ALDRIDGE / Daniel EATON USA 15 S X S S 15 1 136.80 1 83.32 83.32 53.48 11
3 Evgenia KOSIGINA / Nikolai MOROSHKIN RUS 13 X 13 2 135.24 1 75.80 75.80 59.44 11
4 Anna YANOVSKAYA / Sergey MOZGOV RUS 13 X 13 2 135.02 1 80.72 80.72 54.30 16
5 Valeria ZENKOVA / Valerie SINITSIN RUS 13 X 13 2 124.94 1 72.03 72.03 52.91 13
6 Mackenzie BENT / Garrett MACKEEN CAN 11 S X S 11 3 129.16 1 74.85 74.85 54.31 16

[Sylvia]

oleada can you PM a mod. and ask for this to be moved to the "Junior Grand Prix 2012" forum?

ETA: Thanks to the mod. who moved this thread over!

[oleada]

Sure!

[Sylvia]

The Ladies, Men, and Dance point standings have been updated after JGP #4 in Istanbul, Turkey; Pairs was updated after Linz, Austria:

http://www.isuresults.com/events/jgp2012/jgpsladies.htm

http://www.isuresults.com/events/jgp2012/jgpsmen.htm

http://www.isuresults.com/events/jgp2012/jgpspairs.htm

http://www.isuresults.com/events/jgp2012/jgpsdance.htm

Re-posting the following from the U.S. JGP Assignments/Predictions thread in the Trash Can:

Here are the Total & FS scores for the 5 U.S. ladies' JGP medalists so far:
158.52 Hannah Miller (103.05 FS) JGP Austria Silver
157.72 Samantha Cesario (103.34 FS) JGP Austria Bronze
156.33 Leah Keiser (105.63 FS) JGP Turkey Gold
153.77 Courtney Hicks (102.41 FS) JGP Lake Placid Silver
150.40 Angela Wang (105.69 FS) JGP Lake Placid Bronze

They are all really close in total points! Is JGPF only six entries now? Then it will probably be Elena Radionova, Satoko Miyahara, Leah Keiser, Courtney Hicks (who has an easy 2nd assignment), Hannah Miller, and Samantha Cesario (who doesn't have much competition for one of the top two, together with Leah Keiser). I'm assuming Hannah Miller places higher than Angela Wang, as Hannah has been super consistent this season. But I guess it's possible that Angela Wang could win, and Hannah could place 2nd, in which case they'd both be in and squeeze out Samantha Cesario, which would be too bad... as Samantha skated/scored very well and was unfortunate to only get bronze. There's also Rika Hongo, who got a silver already. The other medalists don't look like much of a threat for JGPF (Titushkina with 3rd and 5th, So Youn Park with 2nd and 6th). So at least three US ladies in the JGPF, possibly four. Not bad. I'd say they are in good shape to win a medal or two as well (though Radionova probably has a lock on the gold).

Yes, as of last season, only the top 6 qualify in each discipline for the JGP Final.

Yet to compete in their first JGP: Han YAN (CHN), Maxim Kovtun (RUS) and Shoma Uno (JPN) in men; Anna Shershak (RUS) and Miu Sato (JPN) in ladies; I posted videos of Anna Pogorilaya (RUS), who is scheduled for 2 JGPs, here: http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/show...89#post3691489

[Sylvia]

Qualified for the JGP Final:
1. Joshua Farris USA - 2 golds = 30 points (429.90)
2. Jason Brown USA - gold, silver = 28 points (383.97)
3. Boyang Jin CHN - gold, silver = 28 points (380.58)

Ryuju Hino JPN - silver, bronze = 24 points
Keiji Tanaka JPN - silver, 4th = 22 points (wonder why he wasn't shifted to GER?)

Croatia next week:
Nathan Chen USA - gold
Alexander Samarin RUS & Jin Seo Kim KOR - bronze (should Samarin be shifted to GER?)
Petr Coufal CZE, Harrison Choate USA, Michael Christian Martinez PHI - 4th place
Han Yan CHN - 5th place
Maxim Kovtun RUS - his 1st JGP, 2nd is GER (consecutive weeks)

ETA that the Men's standings were updated after I wrote the above: http://www.isuresults.com/events/jgp2012/jgpsmen.htm

[Sylvia]

Courtney Hick's 4th place today makes things interesting for the last 2 JGPs.

2 have qualified for the Final:
Elena Radionova RUS - 2 golds = 30 points
Satoko Miyahara JPN - gold, bronze = 26 points

Croatia next week:
Hannah Miller USA - silver
Rika Hongo JPN - silver
Angela Wang USA - bronze
Isadora Williams BRA - 1st JGP
Anna Pogorilaya RUS - JGP debut
Mayako Matsuno JPN - JGP debut

Germany:
Leah Keiser USA - gold
Samantha Cesario USA - bronze
Miyabi Oba JPN - 4th
Miu Sato JPN - 5th
Gabrielle Daleman CAN - 6th
Isadora Williams BRA - 1st JGP
etc.

[sandra_persch]

Germany:
Leah Keiser USA - gold
Samantha Cesario USA - bronze
...etc.

Is it confirmed yet that Samantha is going to Germany or would USFSA now choose Barbie Long after placing second in Bled?

[Sylvia]

I was told it was confirmed before the JGP in Slovenia happened that Cesario would be going to Chemnitz, Germany. Cesario scored 157.72 total in Graz and skated very well, so I'm glad she's going!

[haribobo]

I believe Hicks now has 22 points (13 + 9), so she is actually behind Hae Jin Kim (7+15) who is also at 22. Gerasimova (11+9) is right behind them at 20 points.

So I guess we could see Radionova, Miyahara, and then any of Keiser, Wang, Cesario, Miller, Hongo, HJKim, and a small possibility of Hicks at the final, unless Pogorilaya has some sekret skills in store for everyone at the last 2 events?

[Sylvia]

Thanks for the correction, haribobo - I've edited my post to avoid confusing anyone.

DANCE qualifiers:
1 Aldridge/Eaton USA - 2 golds = 30 points (136.80+138.43 = 275.23)
2 Papadakis/Cizeron FRA - 2 golds = 30 points (121.13+142.08 = 273.21)

Likely?
3 Yanovskaya/Mozgov RUS - 2 silvers = 26 points

Croatia:
Kosigina/Moroshkin RUS - silver
Zenkova/Sinitsin RUS - silver
Bent/MacKeen CAN - bronze
Nagornyuk/Kovalenko UZB - 4th

Germany:
Stepanova/Bukin RUS - gold (147.73)
Morozova/Zhirnov RUS - 4th
Hawayek/Baker USA - 5th
Bruser/Lum CAN - 5th

[Sylvia]

Croatia next week:
Nathan Chen USA - gold
Alexander Samarin RUS & Jin Seo Kim KOR - bronze (should Samarin be shifted to GER?)
Petr Coufal CZE, Harrison Choate USA, Michael Christian Martinez PHI - 4th place
Han Yan CHN - 5th place
Maxim Kovtun RUS - his 1st JGP, 2nd is GER (consecutive weeks)

Re-posting from the JGP Entries thread to this one:

The Germany entries were updated on the ISU site today and Alexander Samarin (3rd in Slovenia) is now on there so it looks like the Russian Fed has decided to switch him from Croatia in the hopes of making the final.

[toddlj]

Q1 Elena RADIONOVA RUS 15/15/30 (360.65)
Q2 Satoko MIYAHARA JPN 15/11/26 (305.01)
Hae Jin KIM KOR 7/15/22 (288.59)
Courtney HICKS USA 13/9/22 (295.15)
Evgenia GERASIMOVA RUS 9/11/20 (288.61)
So Youn PARK KOR 5/13/18 (282.14)

Leah KEISER USA 15/X/15 (156.33)
Hannah MILLER USA 13X/13 (158.52)
Rika HONGO JPN 13/X/13 (149.38)
Samantha CESARIO USA 11/X/11 (157.72)
Angela WANG USA 11/X/11 (150.40)
Miyabi OBA JPN 9/X/9 (138.53)
Miu SATO JPN 7/X/7 (134.48)

With two events left, predicting the finalists is getting a bit easier.
At this point, it appears that qualifying will break at 24 points.

Radionova and Miyahara have mathematically qualified.

Keiser would likely qualify with 4th place or better.
Miller and Hongo would likely qualify with any medal.
Cesario and Wang would likely qualify with a silver or better.
Oba would likely qualify with a win.
(If more than four of the above meet the targets above, which is not at all unlikely, then the tiebreak will be at 24. Kim and Hicks, with 22, would be eliminated by four of the above hitting the targets above.)

Gerasimova and Park aren't mathematically eliminated, but would only qualify in the event of a major splatfest among all remaining potential qualifiers.

Sato has not been mathematically eliminated and could qualify with a win, but only if others falter.

Finally, POGORILAYA (RUS) is slated for the last two events, so she could be a wildcard to shake up the above.

[toddlj]

Q1 Joshua FARRIS, USA, 15/15/30, 429.90
Q2 Jason BROWN, USA, 13/15/28, 383.97
Q3 Boyang JIN, CHN, 15/13/28, 380.58
Ryuju HINO, JPN, 11/13/24, 367.46
Keiji TANAKA, JPN, 13/9/22, 363.27
Alexander PETROV, RUS, 7/13/20, 334.13

Nathan CHEN, USA, 15/X/15, 222.00
Alexander SAMARIN, RUS, 11/X/11, 183.03
Jin Seo KIM, KOR, 11/X/11, 175.87
Petr COUFAL, CZE, 9/X/9, 175.72
Harrison CHOATE, USA, 9/X/9, 169.70
Shotaro OMORI, USA, 9/X/9, 166.09
Michael Christian MARTINEZ, PHI, 9/X/9, 158.40
Han YAN, CHN, 7/X/7, 180.69
Sei KAWAHARA, JPN, 7/X/7, 170.41
Shoma UNO, JPN, 5/X/5, 174.34
Jay YOSTANTO, USA, 5/X/5, 165.74
Shu NAKAMURA, JPN, 5/X/5, 161.69

The men seem likely to break at either 22 or 24.

Hino will likely qualify

Chen will likely qualify with 4th or better.
Samarin and Kim will likely qualify with a silver or better
Coufal, Choate, Omari, and Martinez would likely qualify with a win
Yan and Kawahara could qualify with a win, but only if other potential qualifiers falter
Uno, Yostanto and Nakamura could still technically qualify with a win as well, but it would require the failure of all of the others listed above.

Finally, KOVTUN (RUS) is slated for the last two events and could definitely contend for the final.

[pinky166]

Odds not looking great for Han Yan, even with a win nothing is certain, and he has to compete in back-to-back events, and against Chen and Kovtun, probably the strongest competition that have not already competed twice and qualified for the final left!

[toddlj]

Q1 Joshua FARRIS, USA, 15/15/30, 429.90
Q2 Jason BROWN, USA, 13/15/28, 383.97
Q3 Boyang JIN, CHN, 15/13/28, 380.58
Ryuju HINO, JPN, 11/13/24, 367.46
Keiji TANAKA, JPN, 13/9/22, 363.27
Han YAN, CHN, 7/13/20, 392.79

Maxim KOVTUN, RUS, 15/X/15, 219.19
Alexander SAMARIN, RUS, 11/X/11, 183.03
Shotaro OMORI, USA, 9/X/9, 166.09
Shoma UNO, JPN, 5/X/5, 174.34
Jay YOSTANTO, USA, 5/X/5, 165.74
Shu NAKAMURA, JPN, 5/X/5, 161.69

The men still seem likely to break at either 22 or 24, but Chen's unfortunate injury withdrawal opens up things a bit.

HINO will almost definitely qualify. (In order for three men to overtake him, all of KOVTUN, SAMARIN and OMORI would have to, which could only happen in OMORI wins.)

KOVTUN will likely qualify with a 4th or better
SAMARIN would likely qualify with a silver or better
OMORI would likely qualify with a win
(Uno, Yostanto and Nakamura could still technically qualify with a win as well, but it would require the failure of all of the others listed above.)

http://www.isuresults.com/events/jgp2012/jgpsmen.htm

[Sylvia]

Thanks, toddlj! (P.S. it's Omori ).

ETA: Omori has the ability to win the silver or bronze next week IF he can land his 3A and skate relatively cleanly. He's improved a LOT this year after having switched to coach Tammy Gambill. I like the blend/balance of artistry and athleticism in his skating.

[haribobo]

Wang, Miller, Radionova, and Miyahara have now qualified!

Two spots left between HJKim, Pogorilaya, Cesario, Keiser...Oba could make it if she wins the next event, and/or only a perfect storm would get Hicks or Sato in now. All others are now eliminated I'm pretty sure.

[oleada]

Keiser is in with a top 4 finish. (at least 24 pts with a gold medal kicker)
Cesario & Pogorilaya need to finish top 2. (26-24 pts). If they go 1-2, and Keiser is 3rd or 4th, then only the top finisher between them qualifies.
Kim needs either Keiser finishing 5th with a lower score than her and Cesario or Pogorilaya finishing 3rd; or at least 2 of the three finishing off the podium. (I think. It's saturday and I have a headache)

[Jenna]

I'm pulling for Cesario. I really want to see her have some success!

[toddlj]

Q1 Elena RADIONOVA RUS 15/15/30 (360.65)
Q2 Angela WANG USA 11/15/26 (313.05)
Q3 Satoko MIYAHARA JPN 15/11/26 (305.01)
Q4 Hannah MILLER USA 13/13/26 (311.73)
Hae Jin KIM KOR 7/15/22 (288.59)
Courtney HICKS USA 13/9/22 (295.15)

Leah KEISER USA 15/X/15 (156.33)
Samantha CESARIO USA 11/X/11 (157.72)
Anna POGORILAYA, RUS, 11/X/11 (145.54)
Miyabi OBA JPN 9/X/9 (138.53)
Miu SATO JPN 7/X/7 (134.48)

At this point, it appears that 24 points will be required to qualify.

Keiser would likely qualify with 4th place or better.
Cesario and Pogorilaya would likely qualify with a silver or better (but could not qualify with a bronze, because they'd lose the tiebreak to Kim and Hicks.)
Oba would likely qualify with a win.
Sato could still qualify with a win, but only if everyone above fails.