U.S. Ladies [#5]: All That Glitters Is Not Gold

[kwanatic]

If we MUST compare Wagner that way, I'd say she's more of a Hughes than a Cohen. It's really the consistency that's keeping her in the mix...not sure if she could afford mistakes and still finish on the podium (like Cohen could do). But she's not yet on Hughes' level in terms of jump content...

I think she'd be more in the Cohen than Hughes territory. She used to be in the Hughes territory: Sarah was a third tier skater during her career. Aside from her OGM, she won one other competition as a senior. The rest of her medals were mostly bronze and silver. That's what Ashley's been up to this point: lots of bronze and a few silver.

Since nationals Ashley's jumped tiers, from third level to top tier. Depending on the competition, I think she could afford a mistake...maybe two at the national level. I take that back: I don't think there's any way in hell she'll be left off that world team this year, especially after what she's done so far. She's bound to have an off night eventually, and if that happens at nationals I don't doubt she'll get the nod from the judges, as she should. She's proven herself...

[RD]

let's just hope that off-night doesn't occur during...worlds


______

Wagner may have the same coach that Cohen had, but I don't think the two skaters could be any more different. Wagner is making her mark mainly due to her amazing consistency. Cohen made hers through her bendy, point-getting moves...

If anything, I think Wagner is trying a little TOO hard to become that "artistic" skater. She's more of the athletic type- she should embrace that! Last year was a perfect mix I think.

ETA: Wagner almost reminds me of MK actually in terms of how consistent she's been getting. You rarely saw MK fall or make major mistakes- that's why she racked up so many titles. I don't think Wagner can be compared to any of these three skaters, really- she'll stamp her own unique footprint on American skating.

[Jammers]

One good thing about Ashley is she doesn't have that terrified look that we see so often from skaters like Alissa and Mirai. She looks confident. She's always been good in the FP but i think at times she wanted it to much and never took the her time out on the ice and instead was always rushing. It's strange getting used to a US Lady again who you know isn't going to melt down or fall apart.

[olympic]

^ I find comparisons of Ashley to previous skating greats interesting.

IMO, she has different attributes of both Michelle and Sasha (I don't see any comparison to Sarah at all. Sarah was incredibly consistent, but her technique was in retrospect pretty mediocre. She never would've survived IJS wheras Ashley seems to be thriving in it)

I think this year, for the first time, I see Ashley's jumps becoming similar to Michelle's in her heyday - strong, yet not necessarily explosive, rotated w/ good tight technique ... except for the flutz. I guess the spins could be categorized as Kwanesque as well - strong and steady. Her sit spin REALLY reminds me of Kwan's! Kwan got a 3t-3t, so let's see if Ashley can get a 3-3 and 2x-3t as well.

But, I think she wears her ambition on her sleeve and flirts w/ the audience in a more overt way that is reminiscent of Sasha. Of course, she isn't nearly as bendy as Sasha

So, I guess I would say that she's more like Kwan in body and technique, but has Sasha's more overtly ambitious personality

[leafygreens]

Why does Ashley even need a 3/3? She beat the Russians by over 10 points without one.

At this point in the season, how can you just add it? Shouldn't it be something she's been competing already, not just something you throw in? Seems like this would be an unneccessary risk.

I think she is only talking about adding it because she wants to avoid the grief people dumped on Evan for not doing a quad.

[dawnie]

I've never been a fan but I'm extremely impressed with Ashley's progress the past year. Even though Samson & Delilah is overused, I like her program and her performances at SA and especially TEB won me over.
Well, now that we know she has one of the Worlds spots locked up, the battle for the other spot should be fierce with Gao, Gold, Nagasu, and Agnes all fighting for it.

[kwanatic]

Why does Ashley even need a 3/3? She beat the Russians by over 10 points without one.

At this point in the season, how can you just add it? Shouldn't it be something she's been competing already, not just something you throw in? Seems like this would be an unneccessary risk.

I think she is only talking about adding it because she wants to avoid the grief people dumped on Evan for not doing a quad.

ITA for the most part. It's obvious from her scores that a clean program from her with the technical content she has now is a safe and smart bet. I'm not one who thinks difficulty should be added just for difficulty's sake. The way to win under this system is to play to your strengths and skate smartly. Adding a bunch of technical content just to add it will only increase the risk of making a mistake and as of right now, it's unnecessary. The only time Ashley will need to up the ante technically is when she's competing against skaters who can challenge her on the PCS level (ie. Asada, Suzuki, Kostner, Kim).

I think a 3-3 in the SP and the 2a-3t in the LP is all she needs...but I say she should aim to have these changes ready by worlds. She hasn't needed it so far b/c she's been the clear front-runner at all of her competitions this year. I think the GPF will be a good indicator of whether the additional content is necessary, especially if everyone skates their best. But with her content she's hit 127+ twice, so it's obvious the formula is working well.

[olympic]

Why does Ashley even need a 3/3? She beat the Russians by over 10 points without one.

At this point in the season, how can you just add it? Shouldn't it be something she's been competing already, not just something you throw in? Seems like this would be an unneccessary risk.

I think she is only talking about adding it because she wants to avoid the grief people dumped on Evan for not doing a quad.

While Ashley is doing an amazing job thus far, there are 2 ladies who will definitely give her stiffer competition and have not yet debuted - Olympic Champ Yu Na Kim and World Champ Carolina Kostner. Plus, it's possible that Asada and Sotnikova could be in much better shape by Worlds. So, I think Ashley would do well to plan on adding a 3-3 in the SP and the 2x-3t in the LP later in the season. And I don't think she would be 'just adding' these jumps. I assume she is practicing them and has been for quite some time. Remember, that she eventually got the 3-3 by WTT.

Adding them would comport with her strategy last season where she was began going for the 2x-3t at Nationals and the 3-3 by WTT. Of course, adding the 3-3 in time for Worlds would be more optimal than in time for WTT! Interestingly, this is the strategy that FC and Kwan used to implement ... adding 3-3s by Worlds.

[UGG]

IMO she does not need a 3/3 at Nats at all and she should just add it for worlds. Although she could probably do a 3/3 at nationals, miss it, and still make the world team.

[Coco]

If they are going to rest her at 4ccs so that others can have a chance to earn ranking points, etc., she should try a 3-3 at Nationals in the sp.

At some point, the russian ladies are going to stop falling. I would not be surprised if at least 4 or 5 of the final LP group in Sochi have a 3-3 in the sp.

[cbd1235]

I will go out and say that Ashley needs a triple-triple in the short in order to not end up 4th-5th after the short at worlds. She'll want to be 1-2 after the short and she does need the flip-toe for that. 2x-3T isn't necessary for her I'd say, but it helps. Especially against Kim.

She was trying axel-toe in practice at TEB, it's not as though she doesn't work on it but she's stated that the big tricks aren't going in unless she has them easily consistent.

[jlai]

I think Ashley should try a harder combo at gpf to see how it goes first. There's very little at stake there so it is a good place to try out a harder jump.

[Marco]

While Ashley is doing an amazing job thus far, there are 2 ladies who will definitely give her stiffer competition and have not yet debuted - Olympic Champ Yu Na Kim and World Champ Carolina Kostner. Plus, it's possible that Asada and Sotnikova could be in much better shape by Worlds. So, I think Ashley would do well to plan on adding a 3-3 in the SP and the 2x-3t in the LP later in the season. And I don't think she would be 'just adding' these jumps. I assume she is practicing them and has been for quite some time.

Others who can place ahead of her even if she goes conservatively clean: Kostner, Kim, Asada, Suzuki, Sot, Tuk, and possibly Korpi on a very good day. However, given the likelihood of everyone skating well, I would say she is looking very good at winning GPF and finally medalling at Worlds.

[olympic]

Others who can place ahead of her even if she goes conservatively clean: Kostner, Kim, Asada, Suzuki, Sot, Tuk, and possibly Korpi on a very good day. However, given the likelihood of everyone skating well, I would say she is looking very good at winning GPF and finally medalling at Worlds.

No jinxing, Marco

Of all the skaters who I think could beat Ashley: It will be interesting to see where Kostner and Kim are - Kim hasn't competed competitively since '11 Worlds, and before that '10 Worlds. At '11 Worlds, she was beaten by Ando w/o a 3-3. Kostner has conquered many demons, but can she take the pressure of defending her crown? Also, will she add a Lutz back to her reportoire and how would she handle that w/ hardly any comps leading up to Worlds? Asada can be magical but she doesn't seem to do the 3x or a 3-3, either. Plus, she got nailed w/ UR's at CoC. I think NHK might tell us a little more.

I don't think Tuktamysheva, Korpi or Suzuki can beat Ashley in the short-term. Tuk skated lights out in Paris and was still nearly 11 pts. adrift of Ashley. Suzuki is in the twilight of her career. She's doing well for herself, is a great package of artistry, but I personally don't think she will keep up the intensity for much longer. Korpi is beloved by the judges but technically doesn't have the chops to beat Ashley IMO.

Sotnikova is a question mark. Ashley beat her, but she's been spectacularly bad this season. I can't compare her potential to Ashley yet.

[demetriosj]

I think Ashley should try a harder combo at gpf to see how it goes first. There's very little at stake there so it is a good place to try out a harder jump.

I think if she had one consistently she would have thrown it in already. and it's not that simple to obtain a "harder jump" combination.

[kwanatic]

I do think she's been working on it but you know that old adage "if it ain't broke, don't fix it"...that applies to Ashley right now. She's scoring very well with her current content. Given her scoring trend in the SP right now, I don't think she'd be that far behind as long as she skates cleanly. Julia hit all of her tricks and Ashley was less than a point behind her. I see the SP scores at the GPF being very crowded if everyone skates cleanly. That means it will come down to the LP and Ashley is the standard for clean LPs right now. She's always been a strong LP skater so this isn't new, but given that so many usually have problems in the LP this is yet another advantage for Ashley.

In short, at least for the Final, as long as she keeps doing what she's doing she'll be fine. But I do think we'll see some tougher content for worlds...

[jlai]

I think if she had one consistently she would have thrown it in already. and it's not that simple to obtain a "harder jump" combination.

No, but nothing at stake at GPF, other than mental factors. She doesn't need to win the gpf to be taken seriously at nationals or later competitions. Why not try one?

re: triple triple. Too early to say whether she needs it for worlds. Too often what happens earlier in the season doesn't predict what happens later.

But Ashley could try a triple triple or 2a-3t once in an international with low stakes, like the gpf. That way if she needs it later she has it.

[cbd1235]

No jinxing, Marco

Of all the skaters who I think could beat Ashley: It will be interesting to see where Kostner and Kim are - Kim hasn't competed competitively since '11 Worlds, and before that '10 Worlds. At '11 Worlds, she was beaten by Ando w/o a 3-3. Kostner has conquered many demons, but can she take the pressure of defending her crown? Also, will she add a Lutz back to her reportoire and how would she handle that w/ hardly any comps leading up to Worlds? Asada can be magical but she doesn't seem to do the 3x or a 3-3, either. Plus, she got nailed w/ UR's at CoC. I think NHK might tell us a little more.

I don't think Tuktamysheva, Korpi or Suzuki can beat Ashley in the short-term. Tuk skated lights out in Paris and was still nearly 11 pts. adrift of Ashley. Suzuki is in the twilight of her career. She's doing well for herself, is a great package of artistry, but I personally don't think she will keep up the intensity for much longer. Korpi is beloved by the judges but technically doesn't have the chops to beat Ashley IMO.

Sotnikova is a question mark. Ashley beat her, but she's been spectacularly bad this season. I can't compare her potential to Ashley yet.

Two thumbs up for you

[Triple Butz]

But Ashley could try a triple triple or 2a-3t once in an international with low stakes, like the gpf. That way if she needs it later she has it.

She has tried it several times over the past two and a half seasons and I'm sure she does spend time practicing it. She's only done it cleanly without a 2ft and/or > once (CoR 2010) so she's getting better points by doing a 2a/2t with good GOE. I wonder if she would consider doing a 3t+2a+SEQ...it may be more feasible. Though, in the grand scheme of things it isn't going to boost her score more than a point or two. Then again, she may get another PCS bump for doing 7 triples instead of 6.

[olympic]

She has tried it several times over the past two and a half seasons and I'm sure she does spend time practicing it. She's only done it cleanly without a 2ft and/or > once (CoR 2010) so she's getting better points by doing a 2a/2t with good GOE. I wonder if she would consider doing a 3t+2a+SEQ...it may be more feasible. Though, in the grand scheme of things it isn't going to boost her score more than a point or two. Then again, she may get another PCS bump for doing 7 triples instead of 6.

Good point about the 3t - 2x seq. I'm of the mind set that anything helps - if she squeezes another couple of points out of a 3t over a 2t, then that will only help her in a tight competition. The 2x sequences are easy for Ashley. After all, she does the 3l - 2x seq. just fine late in her LP. But, maybe that 2x-3t will eventually happen.

BTW, I'm curious as to why she switched around the 3sal and the 3flutz from her 'Black Swan' LP layout': The 3sal comes earlier and the 3flutz later. Considering she flutzes, the change-up doesn't seem to give her a scoring edge (normally, a 3z in the 2d half of the program would be beneficial cuz it's worth more...