U.S. Ladies [#5]: All That Glitters Is Not Gold

[love_skate2011]

I'd put Gold and Nagasu in the same boat for No.2, they have the potential of scoring high
Zawadzki is not a contender, she can easily implode in FS, I'd have Gao and Wang ahead of her

sad to say but I think Flatt and Zhang are done

[chipso1]

Flatt is definitely out for the rest of the season to heal some nagging injuries.

Zhang is going to need to dig deep and find some spark if she hopes to make the Worlds or 4CC team this year. She's looked absolutely dismal, which is a shame because she was fantastic at 4CCs last year.

[judgejudy27]

No matter what she does from here Zhang can always be proud of her 2012 comeback. It was inspiring to watch someone climb out of the ultimate depths and even be a contender at the U.S level again. I tend to agree both Flatt and Zhang are done as factors, 110% certain for Flatt, 85% likely for Zhang. It is too bad she didnt mantain her early 2012 level of skating, as the U.S women behind Wagner are still shaky enough she might have gotten some real consideration for the #2 spot if she had (which she wasnt ever going to really get at last years Nationals no matter how well she did and how poorly others did, as we basically saw play out).

[Alex Forrest]

No matter what she does from here Zhang can always be proud of her 2012 comeback. It was inspiring to watch someone climb out of the ultimate depths and even be a contender at the U.S level again. I tend to agree both Flatt and Zhang are done as factors, 110% certain for Flatt, 85% likely for Zhang. It is too bad she didnt mantain her early 2012 level of skating, as the U.S women behind Wagner are still shaky enough she might have gotten some real consideration for the #2 spot if she had (which she wasnt ever going to really get at last years Nationals no matter how well she did and how poorly others did, as we basically saw play out).

See I feel awkward right now. I never realized I quoted JJ and agreed so much or JJ quoted me and agreed. Unless JJ is playing games with me and knows me and has my cell number, we have never had contact before.

But anyway, okay, I agree with JJ. Couldn't have said it better.

[RD]

I'll see how Zhang does at Nationals before writing her off for good...I almost certainly do not see her contending for a world spot though.

[Coco]

I think they should just give it to whoever skates best at Nationals. No U.S lady this year should go into Nationals with any clear advantage except Wagner who deserves to be protected even if she somehow has a bad event there.

Truer words were never written! I mean, COME ON USFSA. This is the year to let that 2nd spot be earned on the ice. I think all four are equally unreliable. I'm sure they want Gold to emerge as future star, but do they really want spots for the Olympics to depend on her? Go with whoever rotates their jumps, stands them up and skates like they want to be there.

[ambern024]

i think the us best shots as of now to try and get 3 spots are Mirai and Ashley.

[RD]

I think they should just give it to whoever skates best at Nationals. No U.S lady this year should go into Nationals with any clear advantage except Wagner who deserves to be protected even if she somehow has a bad event there.

The bolded statements contradict each other- it can only go two ways: either they score based on what they see on the ice, OR they pick and choose favorites.

Nationals needs to be fairly judged. If Wagner slips up, penalize her appropriately. If the GP is any indication, though, she can probably afford a mistake or two anyway unless Gold skates lights out.

[skateboy]

The bolded statements contradict each other- it can only go two ways: either they score based on what they see on the ice, OR they pick and choose favorites.

Nationals needs to be fairly judged. If Wagner slips up, penalize her appropriately. If the GP is any indication, though, she can probably afford a mistake or two anyway unless Gold skates lights out.

I agree with this.

[Coco]

I think "it" means the 2nd spot.

[RD]

I think "it" means the 2nd spot.

Doesn't matter - can't request fair judging and then in the same breath ask them to "protect" skater X in case she slips up...they can do one or the other, but not both!

[victoriaheidi]

Remember the year that Miki got the Olympics spot because she medaled at the GPF? It does kinda make sense...

Let's see how Ashley does there, because that WILL make a difference in her Nationals PCS. But not sending the girl with the #1 score of the season for 2 seasons running and the best record of any lady internationally this season would be really hard to explain, IMO.

[RD]

This is a fundamental reason why I'm against the current USFS policy of simply sending the top finishers from nationals to worlds.

When you place so much emphasis on one competition, what happens when someone who has done excellent all season long suddenly has an off-night at nationals? Whereas, if the world team didn't depend solely on nationals, there might be significantly less pressure on judges to hold up favorites (i.e. those who have skated well internationally) and more incentive to actually judge the competition fairly.

[smarts1]

It's amazing how fast people are going to write off Caroline. Almost no one had any faith for her last season or the season before that or even two seasons before the last one and she still managed to make a great comeback late in the 2012 season. Who says she can't do that again this season?

[demetriosj]

I also don't see any US Junior ladies being a menace at Senior nationals (Miller, Wang, Keiser, Cesario). There are a decent no. of US Senior ladies getting the job done that the Junior gals will be held back a little on PCS. front!

Angela Wang skated Senior last Nationals and is in the Junior Grand Prix Final in a few weeks. She also has verified triple-triples.

[judgejudy27]

It's amazing how fast people are going to write off Caroline. Almost no one had any faith for her last season or the season before that or even two seasons before the last one and she still managed to make a great comeback late in the 2012 season. Who says she can't do that again this season?

Well good for her if she can somehow skate as well as she did at Nationals last year, but even that netted her only 4th place in a really poorly skated event. This years event is likely to be stronger than last years, so even the same incredible skates (for her, given where she had come from, and where she would be coming from again this time) would likely not even net a result that high, never mind the 2nd spot on the World team.

[Coco]

Doesn't matter - can't request fair judging and then in the same breath ask them to "protect" skater X in case she slips up...they can do one or the other, but not both!

Well, you can request anything you want, especially since the judges certainly aren't taking requests from us.

I think stating that Wagner should be sent to worlds regardless of what happens at Nationals is just common sense. It's the system of deciding the world team at Nationals that makes "protection" necessary.

[RD]

I think stating that Wagner should be sent to worlds regardless of what happens at Nationals is just common sense. It's the system of deciding the world team at Nationals that makes "protection" necessary.

Exactly. Which just strengthens the point I made above about the big, glaring problem with using only Nationals to determine the World team.

Suppose everything was judged fairly and the results turned out like this: 1. Gold 2. Nagasu 3. Wagner. Forget odds, likelihood, etc. and just suppose this happens. If we had some flexibility, you can send Gold as the champion, and then choose 3rd place Wagner over 2nd place Nagasu, citing better placements and/or higher scores on the GP (and GPF qualification). The way it's set up now, they'd probably boost Wagner's PCS or GOE to make sure she's in second position, robbing Nagasu of a deserved silver medal all because of how she performed on the Grand Prix. Rep Scoring at its finest. When does a competition stop being a competition and become a coronation? We just saw this at NHK.

[smarts1]

Well good for her if she can somehow skate as well as she did at Nationals last year, but even that netted her only 4th place in a really poorly skated event. This years event is likely to be stronger than last years, so even the same incredible skates (for her, given where she had come from, and where she would be coming from again this time) would likely not even net a result that high, never mind the 2nd spot on the World team.

And who says Nationals in 2012 won't be poorly skated again?

[Sasha'sSpins]

Im not a fan of Mirai, but she deserved 2nd at NHK and Mao should have been 3rd ( maybe even fourth )

Agreed. Thrilled for Mirai-she medalled in her final GP of the season and wasn't even expected to be there! I'm very proud of all of the U.S. ladies. I'm very excited for the GPF, Nationals-and WORLDS!