View Poll Results: Which men have best chances for silver and bronze at the 2013 Worlds and 2014 Olympic

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  • Takahashi

    76 63.87%
  • Hanyu

    60 50.42%
  • Kozuka

    7 5.88%
  • Brezina

    7 5.88%
  • Fernandez

    16 13.45%
  • Gaschinski

    12 10.08%
  • Plushenko

    43 36.13%
  • Lysacek

    21 17.65%
  • other American besides Abbott or Evan (eg- Dornbush, Weir, etc..)

    13 10.92%
  • Joubert

    11 9.24%
  • Abbott

    6 5.04%
  • Amodio

    7 5.88%
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  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by NMURA View Post
    Chan will be given the title in 2013.
    Plushenko will win 2014 olympics.
    Hanyu will win silver at both.
    I don't disagree with the prediction here...just with the idea that Chan is 'given' victories while others 'win' them. He wins. Keep that in mind.

    Regardless, I see Chan winning in 2013 but taking the gold in Sochi I think will be too tall of an order. I don't see Plushy winning it either.
    I'm actually with those who think someone will just come in, skate lights out and snatch it. I'm thinking Hanyu or Brezina will do it.

    I see one of Brezina or Hanyu (but not both) along with Chan on the Olympic podium regardless. 3rd spot is so hard to figure out. You have to say Daisuke, but I just have this feeling he will fall off in the next few years (like an Oda and Kozuka) and I don't see Plushy's body holding up.
    I'll put my money on Gachinski. Incredible talent, and last year was an anomaly. He'll be like a Kulik; fidget for a few years and then BAM!

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rock2 View Post
    I don't disagree with the prediction here...just with the idea that Chan is 'given' victories while others 'win' them. He wins. Keep that in mind.

    Regardless, I see Chan winning in 2013 but taking the gold in Sochi I think will be too tall of an order. I don't see Plushy winning it either.
    I'm actually with those who think someone will just come in, skate lights out and snatch it. I'm thinking Hanyu or Brezina will do it.

    I see one of Brezina or Hanyu (but not both) along with Chan on the Olympic podium regardless. 3rd spot is so hard to figure out. You have to say Daisuke, but I just have this feeling he will fall off in the next few years (like an Oda and Kozuka) and I don't see Plushy's body holding up.
    I'll put my money on Gachinski. Incredible talent, and last year was an anomaly. He'll be like a Kulik; fidget for a few years and then BAM!
    YES! Michal will skate his first clean long program in forever and clinch the gold!

  3. #43

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    Personnel I think this thread is as much about bashing Patrick Chan as it is about who will win the the silver and bronze medals at the next worlds and Olympics.
    I want to thank you Lord for being with me so far this day. With your help, I have not been inpatient, lost my temper been grumpy or envious of anyone. But I will be getting out of bed in a minute and I think I will really need your help then. Amen

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rock2 View Post
    I'm actually with those who think someone will just come in, skate lights out and snatch it. I'm thinking Hanyu or Brezina will do it.
    Nice April Fools joke. Hanyu maybe. He is actually the only one I give a tiny chance (10% or less) of beating Chan and winning the gold, if Chan has atleast 3 falls in the long and 1 in the short.

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by museksk8r View Post
    Apparently, on occasion, it's figure falling.
    Which is marked/scored accordingly.
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  6. #46

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    I think Chan has a shot at silver or bronze.
    "I hit him with my shoes... if he had given me the medal like I told him to, I wouldn't have had to hit him!" -- 8-year-old Rhoda Penmark in "The Bad Seed"

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by judgejudy27 View Post
    Nice April Fools joke. Hanyu maybe. He is actually the only one I give a tiny chance (10% or less) of beating Chan and winning the gold, if Chan has atleast 3 falls in the long and 1 in the short.
    Chan won't win with that many falls. Oly judging won't let falls win unless other people fall. And if Chan doesn't win then Michal will.

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by flipforsynchro View Post
    Chan won't win with that many falls. Oly judging won't let falls win unless other people fall. And if Chan doesn't win then Michal will.
    Quote Originally Posted by flipforsynchro View Post
    I don't think Chan is going to win Sochi unless he skates cleanly. There's too many people watching the event.
    Falls mean 3 points is deducted from the element and another for the fall itself so that is minus 4 from a total score. If it is an underrotated fall that means more points off but it will not be like it was in Vancouver when a fall on a UR quad meant no points at all. Olympic judges will hopefully still have to deal with the new rules and not the old rules and falls and urs aren't so bad. Because if falls-but moreso urs- are punished so badly that it can't mean a win the extreme conservatism on jumping that was evident in Vancouver will come back. Then Sochi 2014 will be like Vancouver 2010 with 90% all triple programs in mens skating.

  9. #49

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    Quote Originally Posted by caseyedwards View Post
    Falls mean 3 points is deducted from the element and another for the fall itself so that is minus 4 from a total score.
    Not always true. I've seen some of Chan's falls given -2 and even -1 by some judges. He doesn't lose the full penalty of marks. That's part of the problem.

    No matter how good the rest of it was, a fall is a fall. A jump might have a creative lead-in and great air position, but it's all irrelevant if the jumper lands on their butt.

  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by misskarne View Post
    Not always true. I've seen some of Chan's falls given -2 and even -1 by some judges. He doesn't lose the full penalty of marks. That's part of the problem.

    No matter how good the rest of it was, a fall is a fall. A jump might have a creative lead-in and great air position, but it's all irrelevant if the jumper lands on their butt.
    I think they will in Sochi though. I don't think they'd let someone win with that many falls and that many people watching.

  11. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by misskarne View Post
    Not always true. I've seen some of Chan's falls given -2 and even -1 by some judges. He doesn't lose the full penalty of marks. That's part of the problem.

    No matter how good the rest of it was, a fall is a fall. A jump might have a creative lead-in and great air position, but it's all irrelevant if the jumper lands on their butt.
    Quote Originally Posted by flipforsynchro View Post
    I think they will in Sochi though. I don't think they'd let someone win with that many falls and that many people watching.
    He should be given max punishment for falls. I do remember some less than -3's now but even with max punishment in GOE and the 1 point deduction from the total the scores are still set up to where the points lost are much fewer than they were if there was an UR attached.

    If Chan falls on a quad and does a quad triple - which has happened- and then another person does a quad toe I can't see the points being there or manipulated to an extent that the one quad person will win against Chan. And if Chan fell on a 3A or during a step sequence I still don't think that would harm him to the point where he would lose and should not if the person that would benefit had no quad for instance.

    Judges have not given all -3's for falls during a step sequence for Chan but they should!

    It would be very bad if it came to be the view of the skaters that any fall on anything at the Sochi Olympics would mean auto loss. Then just like fall on Ur quad meant no points in Vancouver you would see really high risk things go.

  12. #52
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    I know it is a difficult concept to some people but Chan is hardly the only one who didn't receive -3 GOE across the board for falling but somehow he's the only one targeted.

  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by caseyedwards View Post
    It would be very bad if it came to be the view of the skaters that any fall on anything at the Sochi Olympics would mean auto loss. Then just like fall on Ur quad meant no points in Vancouver you would see really high risk things go.
    I don't mean one fall, I meant like three falls.

  14. #54

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    Quote Originally Posted by flipforsynchro View Post
    I think they will in Sochi though. I don't think they'd let someone win with that many falls and that many people watching.
    But you see, I think that's very unfair of the judges to do that to Chan. Obviously I think he should be punished appropriately for the falls, but it shouldn't be that he can get away with it at every other competition and then get whacked at the biggest one.

    No, what the judges should be doing is doing it now. Not going suddenly, "Oh, the world is watching, we have to punish him for it." That's really not fair for Chan. He's gone through all these seasons where his falls are effectively rewarded and then suddenly he's punished for them?

    The judges need to be consistent. They need to say, well, falls are unacceptable. The score needs to be affected in ALL the appropriate places for ALL the skaters - the -3 GOE, the -1 deduction, a hit in the P/E mark. It shouldn't change just because of the Olympics.

    Let's say you're training a dog. The dog barks when you don't want it to, but you tell it "no" softly and give it a pat. The one day you're trying to impress someone, the dog barks and you scold it severely. That just doesn't make sense at all.

  15. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by misskarne View Post
    But you see, I think that's very unfair of the judges to do that to Chan. Obviously I think he should be punished appropriately for the falls, but it shouldn't be that he can get away with it at every other competition and then get whacked at the biggest one.

    No, what the judges should be doing is doing it now. Not going suddenly, "Oh, the world is watching, we have to punish him for it." That's really not fair for Chan. He's gone through all these seasons where his falls are effectively rewarded and then suddenly he's punished for them?

    The judges need to be consistent. They need to say, well, falls are unacceptable. The score needs to be affected in ALL the appropriate places for ALL the skaters - the -3 GOE, the -1 deduction, a hit in the P/E mark. It shouldn't change just because of the Olympics.

    Let's say you're training a dog. The dog barks when you don't want it to, but you tell it "no" softly and give it a pat. The one day you're trying to impress someone, the dog barks and you scold it severely. That just doesn't make sense at all.
    Yes, of course they should do it now too! I think they should mark Chan appropriately every time he skates. I'm just talking about Sochi specifically because that's what everyone else is.

    And I wouldn't say his falls are exactly rewarded. It's not like he gets extra points for falling.

  16. #56
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    The -3 for a fall is mandatory, however the -3 is taken off after whatever +GOE the judge would have given for the element had there been no fall. For instance with a jump the entrance (difficulty, steps leading up to it, speed, etc), height, ice coverage, speed of rotation, etc are all taken into consideration as well as the landing. A judge may decide that everything about the jump was excellent except the fall on the landing and give it a +2. Then with 3 taken off the score becomes -1.

    One can argue, of course, (and it has been done here on FSU many times before) that no matter what precedes a jump, if there is a fall on the landing nothing about it was good enough to deserve any +GOE. However those are the rules as they stand whether you like them or not.

    Re Chan not getting -3 with a fall in a step sequence it's for the same reason. They're giving him +GOE for all he did well and then taking off the 3 points for the fall.

    I believe the rules also state that a fall on any element must have a minus GOE, but if everything else about the element is done very well it can be as little as -1
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    Quote Originally Posted by alilou View Post
    The -3 for a fall is mandatory, however the -3 is taken off after whatever +GOE the judge would have given for the element had there been no fall. For instance with a jump the entrance (difficulty, steps leading up to it, speed, etc), height, ice coverage, speed of rotation, etc are all taken into consideration as well as the landing. A judge may decide that everything about the jump was excellent except the fall on the landing and give it a +2. Then with 3 taken off the score becomes -1.

    One can argue, of course, (and it has been done here on FSU many times before) that no matter what precedes a jump, if there is a fall on the landing nothing about it was good enough to deserve any +GOE. However those are the rules as they stand whether you like them or not.

    Re Chan not getting -3 with a fall in a step sequence it's for the same reason. They're giving him +GOE for all he did well and then taking off the 3 points for the fall.

    I believe the rules also state that a fall on any element must have a minus GOE, but if everything else about the element is done very well it can be as little as -1
    Yes, all of the above is correct.

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    Quote Originally Posted by alilou View Post
    The -3 for a fall is mandatory, however the -3 is taken off after whatever +GOE the judge would have given for the element had there been no fall. For instance with a jump the entrance (difficulty, steps leading up to it, speed, etc), height, ice coverage, speed of rotation, etc are all taken into consideration as well as the landing. A judge may decide that everything about the jump was excellent except the fall on the landing and give it a +2. Then with 3 taken off the score becomes -1.

    One can argue, of course, (and it has been done here on FSU many times before) that no matter what precedes a jump, if there is a fall on the landing nothing about it was good enough to deserve any +GOE. However those are the rules as they stand whether you like them or not.

    Re Chan not getting -3 with a fall in a step sequence it's for the same reason. They're giving him +GOE for all he did well and then taking off the 3 points for the fall.

    I believe the rules also state that a fall on any element must have a minus GOE, but if everything else about the element is done very well it can be as little as -1
    Thanks alilou for your explanation. It couldn't get any clearer. As a non-skater fs fan, I learn from such explanation rather than the constant mantra, 'Chan will win with FOUR falls'.

  19. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by spikydurian View Post
    Thanks alilou for your explanation. It couldn't get any clearer. As a non-skater fs fan, I learn from such explanation rather than the constant mantra, 'Chan will win with FOUR falls'.
    Personally, I find actual factual information makes these threads quite dry.
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  20. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by fscric View Post
    I know it is a difficult concept to some people but Chan is hardly the only one who didn't receive -3 GOE across the board for falling but somehow he's the only one targeted.
    I think it should be applied to everyone.

    Quote Originally Posted by flipforsynchro View Post
    I don't mean one fall, I meant like three falls.
    I think most of Chans programs with falls are better than the no fall one that won the 2010 Olympics! I have no problem with falls. If no falls means tecnically backward piece of crap- that's unaccetpable.

    Quote Originally Posted by misskarne View Post
    But you see, I think that's very unfair of the judges to do that to Chan. Obviously I think he should be punished appropriately for the falls, but it shouldn't be that he can get away with it at every other competition and then get whacked at the biggest one.

    No, what the judges should be doing is doing it now. Not going suddenly, "Oh, the world is watching, we have to punish him for it." That's really not fair for Chan. He's gone through all these seasons where his falls are effectively rewarded and then suddenly he's punished for them?

    The judges need to be consistent. They need to say, well, falls are unacceptable. The score needs to be affected in ALL the appropriate places for ALL the skaters - the -3 GOE, the -1 deduction, a hit in the P/E mark. It shouldn't change just because of the Olympics.

    Let's say you're training a dog. The dog barks when you don't want it to, but you tell it "no" softly and give it a pat. The one day you're trying to impress someone, the dog barks and you scold it severely. That just doesn't make sense at all.
    Yes. I worry about Chan possibly being a victim of pre-olympic politicking.

    Quote Originally Posted by alilou View Post
    The -3 for a fall is mandatory, however the -3 is taken off after whatever +GOE the judge would have given for the element had there been no fall. For instance with a jump the entrance (difficulty, steps leading up to it, speed, etc), height, ice coverage, speed of rotation, etc are all taken into consideration as well as the landing. A judge may decide that everything about the jump was excellent except the fall on the landing and give it a +2. Then with 3 taken off the score becomes -1.

    One can argue, of course, (and it has been done here on FSU many times before) that no matter what precedes a jump, if there is a fall on the landing nothing about it was good enough to deserve any +GOE. However those are the rules as they stand whether you like them or not.

    Re Chan not getting -3 with a fall in a step sequence it's for the same reason. They're giving him +GOE for all he did well and then taking off the 3 points for the fall.

    I believe the rules also state that a fall on any element must have a minus GOE, but if everything else about the element is done very well it can be as little as -1
    It's good to have this refresher!

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