I'd like to add to my earlier post -
Versus the 3 oldies, I think it may come down to just Dornbush and Miner on the young'uns side. Mahbanoozadeh's problem is that he doesn't seem to get a lot of love from either the USFSA or from international judges. He is handicapped in that he will not make an appearance on the GP circuit to bolster his credibility as a US top #2. Now, if he goes to a Senior B and gets a big score showing a consistent, workable Quad, that might change the equation but not sure by how much.
I also did not know that the judges in this quadrennial were scrutinizing jump take-offs more? I never saw the problem with EL's axel take-off relative to any one else's but I guess we will find out soon enough.
I want to reiterate I actually like JW's chances: He seems to have matured more (marriage?), made some peace with the USFSA, and of the 3 - Lysacek, Weir, Abbott - he was always a bit more 'authentic' with more natural ability than Lysacek (Weir's 3x was always a beauty), combined with not being nearly as head case-y as Abbott: A good balance might lift him to a spot. He is reportedly training the Quad w/ some success. I know. We must see it to believe it, but it sounds encouraging.